Lecture given by Dr John Ingram, Univ. pf Oxford, in March 2010

2. Food Security and
Climate Change
John Ingram
Environmental Change Institute
University of Oxford

3. Why is this attracting such attention?

4. We know that world population will
Population (billions)
continue to rise …

5. … but increases in grain production have
kept pace with increases in population.

6. But now we also know that temperatures are
rising…

7. … that climate change will undermine food
production in many parts of the world…
Simulated maize yields
(from Jones &
2000 2055 Thornton, 2002)

8. … and that agriculture contributes
significantly to GHG emissions.
Agriculture
13%
Source:
EarthTrends,
2008;
using
data
from
the
the
Climate
Analysis
Indicators
Tool
(CAIT)

9. But what do we actually understand by
“Food Security”?

10. Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)

11. Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to sufficient, safe, and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active and healthy life.
(UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)
… is more than food production
… is underpinned by food systems

12. Food System Concept
Food System ACTIVITIES
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical
and economic access to resources, inputs,safe, and
Producing food: natural
sufficient, markets, …
nutritious food to meet raw materials, standards, storageand food
Processing & packaging food:
their dietary needs requirement, …
Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, …
preferences for an food: acquisition, preparation, customs, …
Consuming
active and healthy life.
(World Food Summit 1996)
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:
Social Welfare Food Security, i.e. stability over time Environmental
• Income for: Welfare
• Employment • Ecosystem
• Wealth FOOD FOOD stocks & flows
UTILISATION ACCESS
• Social capital • Ecosystem
• Political capital • Nutritional Value • Affordability services
• Human capital • Social Value • Allocation • Access to natural
• Food Safety • Preference capital
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

13. Food systems are already failing many:
1.02 billion people hungry in 2009
Developed
15m
NENA 42m
Asia & Pac
642m
“In New York City the number of SSA people having trouble paying for food
LAC
has increased53m to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five
60%, 265m
of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004”.
Economist, Jan 14th 2010

14. Affordability is critical for food security:
When supply goes down, prices go up

15. Consequences of the
2008 Food Price Crisis

16. So what’s the
link with climate
change?
Recall: food security is already very challenging
for many…

17. Crops have critical average temperature
thresholds during growing season
(°C)
Lower Optimum Upper
Potato 5-10 15-20 25
Wheat 0 17-23 30-35
Maize 8-13 25-30 32-37
Rice 7-12 25-30 35-38
(Rötter and van de Geijn, 1999)

18. Rice yield is particularly sensitive to Tmin
Field
observations
over several
years,
Philippines
Peng et al,
2004, PNAS

19. We know that warming projections
depend on emissions scenarios …
A2: focuses on
economic growth
B1: focuses on
environmental
sustainability
IPCC (2007)

20. and we know that actual emissions are near
the “worst case” emission scenario.
Van Vuuren
and Riahi
Van Vuuren
(2008)
and Riahi
(2008)

21. We also now realise that feedbacks in the
carbon cycle are expected to accelerate
global warming
Monday 28 September 2009
Met Office warns of
catastrophic global
warming in our
lifetimes
• With high emissions: +4°C in 2070s
• Plausible worst case: +4°C by 2060
• The Arctic could warm by 15°C or more
• Annual precipitation could decrease by 20% or more in
many areas

22. Temperatures will rise further, faster …
but with pronounced regional variation
Pattern of warming by 2090s, A1B Mean of “high-end” MOHC
© Crown copyright Met Office
simulations (9 simulations, mean global warming 4.6°C)

23. 6
Global Temperature (°C) by 2100
5
Worst case
4
2060
(IPCC, 2007)
(Met Office, 2009)
3
The Hunters in the Snow: Brueghel, 1565.
“Safe” limit 2
Northern Hemisphere
“Little Ice Age”
Temperature (°C)
begins 1
1 1
0.5
0 0
0
-0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

24. “Weather” is also likely to get more
extreme

25. Maybe more
cold days
but a lot more
hot ones…

26. So what’s all this mean for
food security?
… and how do we know?
1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality

27. 1. Experiments, e.g. Temperature Gradient Tunnels (TGT)

28. So what’s all this mean for
food security?
… and how do we know?
1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality
3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions
affect:
i. crop growth and yield
ii. regional production
iii. global food supply

29. 2.i Computer modelling to estimate how changed
conditions affect crop growth and yield

30. 2.ii Computer modelling to estimate how changed
conditions affect regional production
Simulated maize yields
(from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2002)
2000 2055

31. 3.iii Computer modelling to estimate how changed
conditions will affect global food supply
2020s
2050s
% change in average crop yields
Crops modelled are wheat, maize and rice.
2080s Effects of CO2 are taken into account.
Parry et al. (2005)

32. So what’s all this mean for
food security?
… and how do we know?
1. Experiments to understand how changed conditions affect
crop growth, yield and quality
3. Computer modelling to estimate how changed conditions
affect:
i. crop growth and yield
ii. regional production
iii. global food supply
5. Scenarios to consider climate change in the context of
socio-economic and political decisions.

33. 3. Scenarios (plausible stories) to consider climate change in
the context of socio-economic and political decisions.
World Development
Globalization Regionalization
Reactive
Environmental Management
Global Orchestration Order from Strength
Proactive
TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , 2006

34. So we know climate
will affect our food
security …. ?
And so what do we
need to do about it?
We need silver buckshot!
1. Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate
change
2. Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change

35. Adaptation means
“doing things differently”
=> adapt
our Food Producing food
System Processing & packaging food
“Activities”
Distributing & retailing food
Consuming food

36. Adapting food producing activities:
agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture,
fisheries, …
• Stress-tolerant
varieties
• Wider range of food
stuffs
• Novel food producing
systems
• Insurance for
producers
• …

37. Preserving crop varieties for the future
• Opened 2008
• > 4,000,000 samples
• -18 oC
• “Climate change proof”

38. Improving food storage
Reduce losses to
pests and damp

39. Input
Suppliers
Reducing food loss
Farmers
• May occur anywhere
Processors along the supply
chain, from farm to
final consumer
Transporters
• Difficult to measure
• Globally, 15-50% of
Retailers
food is lost post-
harvest
Final
Consumers • Often unnoticed until
too late

40. Re-designing food distribution systems
London Evening Standard 23 November 2009
…Meanwhile in Cumbria, families say they are running
out of food as many are unable to reach shops after six
bridges collapsed.

41. So we know climate
will affect our food
security …. ?
And so what do we
need to do about it?
We need silver buckshot!
1. Multiple ways to adapt to anticipated climate
change
2. Multiple ways to mitigate further climate change

42. Global GHG emission sources
70%
of
arable
GHG
emissions
connected
with
N
fer8lizer
(manufacture,
use):
CO2
&
N2O
Source:
EarthTrends,
2008;
using
data
from
the
the
Climate
Analysis
Indicators
Tool
(CAIT)

43. Improving N-use efficiency?
N input – N output in
crop
kg N/ha/yr
Western Kenya -52
(maize)
USA +10
(maize-soybean)
North China +227
(maize-wheat)
(Vitousek et al, 2009)

44. China grain production and fertilizer
consumption (1980 = 100)
Grain Fertilizer
Considerable food production achievement
BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)

45. What other Food System ‘Activities’ offer
mitigation possibilities?
Producing food
from Edwards et al., Institute for
Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009
Processing & packaging food
Distributing & retailing food
Consuming food

46. Reducing food
packaging?

47. Reducing food miles?

48. Modernising supermarket chilling
equipment?
Refrigerant
leakage
accounts for
30% of
super-
markets’
direct GHG
emissions
(Environment
Investigation
Agency, 2010)
Guardian 1 February 2009

49. But the industry is “tidying up”
Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport
and refrigerants
The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09

50. What about us as individuals?
Accepting less
choice?
Tesco Oxford has
25,000 different food
lines

51. Considering
novel foods?

52. Modifying our diets?
=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!

53. Behavioural Change and Personal Action
Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if
adopted by 100% of the US population
Consume less red meat 105 Recycling and
and diary: Responsible
Consumption Transportation
Eat poultry in place of red 16% 22%
meat and consume plant-
based food rather than Diet and
dairy two days per week Food Waste
17%
Waste less food: 65 Household
Energy
Reduce consumer food 45%
waste by 25%
Pie chart total = 1000 MtCO2e
(14% of total US emissions)

54. Reducing food waste
• Every household in the UK wastes between £250 and £400
of food per year
• Avoidable waste of cereal-based food in the UK and USA
could lift 224 million people out of hunger
• Producing and distributing edible food that goes to waste
accounts for around 5% of all UK GHG emissions
Food Ethics Council, 2009

55. Conclusion
We know what we
want:
a clever balancing
act
between
food security
and
environment

56. And we also know what we don’t want!

57. Food Security and
Climate Change
?
Mitigation
Adaptation