2. Valuation recommendation and key investment
considerations
Recommendation: BUY
Analysis from both intrinsic valuation and relative valuation highlight that at current levels NRB Bearings offers a
significant upside
Key investment highlights:
#4 bearings manufacturer in the organized bearings market
Market leader in needle roller bearings with ~70% market share
Continued high investment to support organic growth
Increasing focus on exports market (high margin business) and industrial components market (currently comprises
primarily of imports)
Attractive industry growth estimates (as per ACMA):
o Auto Components industry growth CAGR 2011-21: 11.0%
o Auto Components industry exports growth CAGR 2011-21: 18.8%
Key investment concerns
Rising raw material costs, which may put some pressure on the margins in the short-term
Exposure to foreign currency risks
Significant employee costs as compared to peers
2
3. Industry overview
3
Indian organized ball bearings sector worth INR 45 billion
and has seen healthy growth
o The sector increased by 13% for the year 2011-12
Domestic industry satisfies 75% of the demand, the balance
25% is met through imports
o International manufacturers have established units in
India through joint ventures or 100% ownership
Industry overview
Growth in key drivers of the sector Industry structure
Bearings
industry
Unorganized ImportedOrganized
~37.5% ~37.5% ~25%
Historically buoyant growth witnessed in the automotive
industry, the largest consumer of quality bearings, across all
segments
o Indian government’s Automotive Mission Plan 2016 to
facilitate high growth for the sector
o Targets of doubling of the automotive industries
contribution to the Indian economy between 2006-2016
Infrastructure spending in the 12th Five Year Plan expected
to double to US$ 1 trillion
Investments in roads, railways and power generation will
result in a multiplier effect across the core sectors
Key sector highlights
Replacement
Special purpose
bearing
OEM
CAGR CAGR
2008-12 2012-21
Passenger vehicles growth 14.0% 13.0%
Commercial vehicles 22.0% 11.0%
Tractors NA 6.0%
Two & three wheelers 16.0% 7.0%
Construction vehicles NA 14.6%
CAGR CAGR
2007-11 2011-21
Auto components 14.6% 11.0%
Auto components - Exports 11.0% 18.8%
4. NRB
70.0%
Others
30.0%
Auto
79.0%
Industri
al
6.9%
Exports
14.1%
OEM
66.9%
After-
market
19.0%
Exports
14.1%
NRB Bearings - Company profile
NRB operates in the ball and roller bearing business
Offers c.3,000 customized products to its diversified client
base in the Auto OEM’s and after market segments
Products find applications in Auto, tractors & farm
equipments & Off highway vehicles
Customers: Well-established relationships with some major
OEMs with top five customers including Tata Motors, Hero
Honda, Ashok Leyland, M&M, and Bajaj Auto
o Diversified client base with no single customer
accounting for >10% revenues
o Global clientele includes Daimler, Volvo and VW
4
Company overview Sales breakdown (FY2011/12)
Market positioning Organization
NRB Bearings
NRB Industrial
Bearings
(NIBL)
NRB Bearings
(Thailand)
SNL Bearings
73.5% 100% 100%NRB
12.0%
Others
88.0%
Mkt. share of organized
bearings industry
Mkt. share of needle
roller bearings
5. NRB Bearings - Company profile (cont’d)
Industrial bearings
NRB incorporated NIBL in February’ 2011 to manufacture
bearings for the industrial sector
NIBL is expected to commence manufacturing industrial
bearings from October, 2012
NRB to also transfer its industrial bearings operations to
NIBL
Company’s new plant in Aurangabad to cater its industrial
segment is expected to go on-stream and start contributing
slowly from current fiscal
NRB expects to increase its industrial bearings market share
in the next 2-3 years through new plant
Exports
Company plans to focus more on the exports
Revenue contribution from exports expected to increase to
20% over the next 2-3 years
5
Operates 8 manufacturing plants (7 domestic and 1 in
Thailand)
Recent developments Manufacturing footprint and locations
Location Year Products manufactured
Thane 1966
Textile bearing, Thrust bearing, steering bearing, Needle
bushes, Needle cages
Aurangabad 1978 Needle rollers
Jalna 1982
Rocker arm bearings, Textile bearings, Taper roller
bearings, Ball bearings, Sperical and Cylinderical ball
bearings
Ranchi 1983
Needle rollers, Needle cages, Full compliment shell
bearings
Waluj 1991
Big and small end bearings, Grease retained bushes, Full
complimented bushes
Hyderabad 1992 Thrust bearings, on rod kits, Cages
Pantnagar 2008
Ball bearings, Needle roller bearings, Cylindrical roller
bearings
Thailand 2007
Spherical bearings, Tapered bearings, Cylindrical roller
bearings , Needle cages, Roller cages
8. NRB Bearings – Valuation summary
8
52.34
71.70
74.93
40.24
51.85
72.77
84.18
90.54
54.53
70.71
DCF valuation
EV / EBITDA 2012E
EV / EBITDA 2013E
P / E 2012E
P / E 2013E
Valuation range
Current share price:
INR 37.80
1. P / E 2013E valuation based on range of +/- 1.5x the average multiple of 9.7x for the peer group.
2. P / E 2012E valuation based on range of +/- 1.5x the average multiple of 10.0x for the peer group.
3. EV / EBITDA 2013E valuation based on range of +/- 0.5x the average multiple of 6.6x for the peer group.
4. EV / EBITDA 2012E valuation based on range of +/- 1.5x the average multiple of 7.9x for the peer group.
5. DCF valuation low price based on WACC of 12.0% and terminal growth rate of 3.0%; high price based on industrial growth rate of 8.0% and
terminal growth rate of 5.0%.