Breakdown of academic outcomes and results pertaining to Rhode Island Promise

1. Rhode Island Promise Results
Data Analysis and Text
by
Prof. Jean Billerbeck
Community College of Rhode Island
Biology Department
Presentation by Andrew Stewart

2. RI Promise Results

1. Given that 65% of initial RI Promise recipients were NOT “on track”
to graduate as of the end of the most recent semester, can RI Promise be
considered a success?

Cannot yet be determined. As we have not yet reached the end of this
Spring 2019 term, it is impossible to predict for certain what
number/percentage of the initial 2017 RIP cohort will successfully
graduate within the 2-year target of the Promise Program. However, given
that the success rate of Promise students tends to decline over time (see
graph above), the numbers/percentages of those NOT “on track” will
likely increase from where it now stands.

3. RI Promise Results

2. Considering the methods by which CCRI assigns students grades &
determines GPA eligibility for RI Promise, isn’t the actual percentage of
successful (“on track”) RI Promise students much lower than 35%?

For the following reasons, it is likely that the actual percentage of
successful Promise students is lower than 35%:

CCRI systemically inflates student Grade Point Averages. The CCRI
Grade Policy does not include C- or D- grades. Thus, reported GPAs may
be inflated by as much as 0.3 points. Professors are forced to grant C
grades (2.0 quality points) to students who actually earn C- grades (1.7
quality points) & D grades (1.0 quality points) to students who actually
earn D- grades (0.7 quality points). This systemic curving of low-end
grades may inflate CCRI student GPAs by as much as 0.3 points; a student
who is reported to have a 2.5 GPA, may have actually earned only a 2.2
GPA.

4. RI Promise Results

2. Considering the methods by which CCRI assigns students grades & determines GPA
eligibility for RI Promise, isn’t the actual percentage of successful (“on track”) RI
Promise students much lower than 35%?

In their response to the APRA, CCRI stated that they use credits of any kind, including
both developmental & college-level credits, to determine if a student meets the 15-credit
minimum per semester eligibility requirement for RI Promise. However, they use
whichever is higher: either a student’s financial aid GPA (both developmental & college-
level grades) or their cumulative GPA (college-level grades only) to determine if a student
meets the minimum 2.5 GPA eligibility requirement for RI Promise. If students tend to
perform poorly in developmental courses, then cumulative GPAs will be inflated relative
to financial aid GPAs. Thus, for these students, CCRI is counting credits for
developmental courses towards Promise eligibility, but not the grades for those very same
courses!

The credit & GPA eligibility criteria currently being used are not consistent with one
another. And, the GPA eligibility criterion is not being applied consistently across
students. To solve both of these inequities, CCRI should be using the financial aid GPA
(which includes ALL class grades) to determine the eligibility of ALL students for RI
Promise.

5. RI Promise Results

3. Is it cost effective for the state of RI to spend
$25,738 for a RI Promise student to earn an
Associate’s degree that would have otherwise cost the
student $9,128 in tuition/fees, resulting in an
estimated total cost of roughly $34,866 per graduate?

With the state of Rhode Island running at a serious
budget deficit, I would suggest not…

6. RI Promise Results

4. Is the RI Promise Program achieving its goal of
enabling more HS graduates to attend college?

Cannot yet be determined. CCRI’s RI Promise Initial
Data Briefing (March 2017) showed a 43% increase in
freshman enrollment numbers between 2016 & 2017,
which they attributed to the RI Promise Program.
However, an increase in CCRI freshman enrollment
numbers could easily be caused by other factors & does
not necessarily mean that a greater percentage of RI HS
graduates are going to college than in the past.

7. RI Promise Results

4. Is the RI Promise Program achieving its goal of enabling
more HS graduates to attend college?

Alternative hypotheses that could explain enrollment increases
are:

1) a change in population demographics; greater numbers of HS
graduates in 2017 & 2018, versus 2016, could have resulted in a
larger freshman applicant pool, &/or

2) free tuition at CCRI may have drawn many recent HS
graduates away from attending RIC or URI. As RIC’s overall
freshman enrollment numbers dropped by 114 students (9.5%)
from Fall 2016 to Fall 2017 & dropped another 241 students
(22%) from Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, there appears to be evidence
of this.

8. RI Promise Results

4. Is the RI Promise Program achieving its goal of enabling
more HS graduates to attend college?

However, further data is needed from Board of Ed to
determine cause of CCRI’s freshman enrollment
increase:

a) Total numbers of HS diplomas/GEDs awarded in
Rhode Island in 2015, 2016, 2017, & 2018 (total size
of freshman college applicant pool each year);

b) Total numbers of in-state FTFTHS (first-time,
full-time, HS transfer) students that enrolled at CCRI,
RIC, & URI in Fall 2015, 2016, 2017, & 2018.

9. RI Promise Results

5. Is the RI Promise Program achieving its goal of helping more
minority & low-income students to attend college?

Cannot yet be determined. CCRI’s RI Promise Initial Data Briefing
(March 2017) showed enrollment increases for both minority & low-
income students, which they attributed to the RI Promise Program.
However, once again, demographic changes in the numbers of minority
& low-income HS graduates could explain this. Additionally, the
increases in both groups were extremely similar, suggesting that many
students may have qualified as BOTH categories simultaneously. If the
two categories overlap significantly & are correlated, not independent of
one another, then it is misleading to report them as separate
increases/achievements.

10. RI Promise Results

5. Is the RI Promise Program achieving its goal of
helping more minority & low-income students to
attend college?

Data needed from BOE to determine effect of RI
Promise on minority enrollment:
− a) Total numbers of HS diplomas/GEDs awarded to
minority students in Rhode Island in 2015, 2016, 2017, &
2018.

We are awaiting a response from CCRI to our APRA
of 3/19 seeking enrollment & “on track” numbers for
minority, low-income, & minority + low-income RI
Promise students to determine success rate of students
in these groups.

11. RI Promise Results

6. Was the accelerated Winter 2019 Session (J-term)
effective in helping RI Promise students to succeed?

Cannot yet be determined. CCRI insisted on running
the trial Winter Session despite strong faculty
opposition; yet, the Winter Session does not appear to
have been successful. As the data above show, J-term
enabled only 8 students to get their credit & GPA
levels back “on track” to meet the minimum
requirements of RI Promise, even though J-term
grades were unusually high & heavily skewed heavily
towards A, B, & C grades.

12. RI Promise Results

6. Was the accelerated Winter 2019 Session (J-term) effective in helping
RI Promise students to succeed?

This non-normal grade distribution suggests that the courses offered in the
accelerated, 3-week Winter Session were much less academically-rigorous
than those offered during the regular 15-week semesters. The APRA
response also indicated that 13 Promise students “graduated” in the Winter
Session. However, it is not clear if these students have officially graduated
at this time, or whether their degrees will be conferred at the end of this
Spring 2019 term.

The cost of the Winter Session is not yet available because it was funded by
Spring 2019 RI Promise monies. However, the low student success rate
suggests that it may not have been cost effective to run.