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- 1. Lets create the 2020 world we deserve Prof. dr. Wim J. de Ridder 11 november 2010
- 4. Futurology • "If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses." --Henry Ford • "We are prisoners of our own metaphors, metaphorically speaking..."-- R. Buckminster Fuller • If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible he is very probably wrong." --Arthur C. Clarke
- 5. 1: 2020, the end of an era • Moore’s Law: singularity in 2020
- 8. 8
- 9. Periode 2015-2025: genetische informatie behoort tot de standaard gezondheidszorg binnen alle vakgebieden* * William E. Halal van Techcast
- 10. Technologische revolutie binnen de gezondheidszorg: trial-and-error geneeskunde get-it-right-the-first-time benadering
- 11. The Law of Accelerating Returns is driving economic growth • The portion of a product or service’s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100% • The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year • This is a powerful deflationary force – Completely different from the deflation in the 1929 Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply)
- 12. 1: 2020, the end of an era • The new era has begun: the symbiotic age symbiosis between men – machine symbiosis between men – men symbiosis between men – society
- 13. 2: Markets in transition • Computer 1.0: main frame • Computer 2.0: Personal computing • Computer 3.0: Pervasive computing/embedded systems
- 14. 3: Emerging markets: health • Medicine 1.0: hospitals – health centres • Medicine 2.0: personal medicine • Medicine 3.0: telemedicine/lab-on-a-chip
- 15. Installation Deployment Irruption The Industrial Revolution Age of Steam and Railways Age of Steel, Electricity and Heavy Engineering Age of Oil, Automobiles and Mass Production Age of Information and Telecommunications Frenzy Synergy Maturity Panic 1797 Depression 1893 Crash 1929 Dot.com Collapse 2008 Credit Crisis Period of Institutional Adjustment 1 2 3 4 5 Panic 1847 1771 1829 1875 1908 1971 1873 1920 1974 1829 Source: Perez, C., “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”, 2002 Crash • Formation of Mfg. industry • Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade • Standards on gauge, time • Catalog sales companies • Economies of scale • Urban development • Support for interventionism • Build-out of interstate highways • IMF, World Bank, BIS 4: 2020, the end of an era
- 16. Installation Deployment Irruption Age of Information and Telecommunications Frenzy Synergy Maturity Dot.com Collapse 2008 Credit Crisis5 Period of Institutional Adjustment We are about to enter the deployment phase of the Age of Information and Telecommunications Crash • Shifting sources and allocation of capital - restructured financial services, government stabilization actions, business savings drives transformation • Economics of a connected world • Shift in wealth and economic influence to the East • New constructs and capabilities for global integration • Global demographics • Finite capacity of the earth and resources Characteristics of this Deployment Phase:
- 18. 18 Waarom de Red MedTech Highway? Ideale combinatie van competenties en spelers om patiënten te helpen Technologie- gedreven, Medisch & Farmaceutisch Bedrijfsleven Medisch & Technologisch Onderzoek & Onderwijs Medische Zorg & Revalidatie Patiënt Technologie- gedreven, Medisch & Farmaceutisch Bedrijfsleven Technologie- gedreven, Medisch & Farmaceutisch Bedrijfsleven Medisch & Technologisch Onderzoek & Onderwijs Medisch & Technologisch Onderzoek & Onderwijs Medische Zorg & Revalidatie Medische Zorg & Revalidatie PatiëntPatiënt
- 19. Medische zorg & Revalidatie Technologie- gedreven Bedrijfsleven en O&O Overheid en verzekeraars Patient Wie is leidend in de innovation journey? Ideale combinatie van competenties en spelers om patiënten te helpen
- 20. In de medische wetenschap is de toekomst maar pas begonnen. Jan Anthonie Bruijn, patholoog LUMC
- 21. Maar in toekomst tevens hele genoom screenbaar Kansen op allerlei ziektes, vaderschap etc. Wat doe je met die kennis?
- 22. - Recht om niet/wel te weten van patiënt en nageslacht? Wil je weten of je over 1 of over 20 jaar kanker of Alzheimer krijgt? Wat betekent dat voor kwaliteit van leven van jou/je omgeving/je kinderen als het om een overerfelijke ziekte gaat?
- 23. 2. Pre-implantatie diagnostiek voor erfelijke aandoeningen: in vitro fertilisatie procedure, DNA getest op erfelijke ziekte die i.d. familie zit. Maar tevens hele genoom screenbaar op allerlei ziektes/ eigenschappen/kansen op ziektes/geslacht/intelligentie >> selectie van vrucht
- 24. Je bent als arts betrokken bij een in vitro fertilisatie procedure en eindigt met 2 kansrijke vruchten: een mannelijke en een vrouwelijke. Wat doe je? Ogen dicht Dobbelsteen Ouders vragen Zelf kiezen
- 25. Nrc 9/10/10
- 26. Open innovatie Samenwerkingen “…. Philips en Achmea lanceren met Stichting Zorg Binnen Bereik een brede coalitie in de gezondheidszorg om zorginnovatie te versnellen.”
- 27. Creëren van ecosystemen High Tech Campus High Tech Campus Eindhoven is de belichaming geworden van de filosofie van open innovatie. Een 'ecosysteem' van high-tech R&D-bedrijven, academische instituten en onderzoeksinstellingen die werkzaam zijn in aanverwante gebieden.
- 29. Medische zorg & Revalidatie Technologie- gedreven Bedrijfsleven en O&O Overheid en verzekeraars Patient Wie is leidend in de innovation journey? Ideale combinatie van competenties en spelers om patiënten te helpen
- 30. Contact Futures Studies & Management Consultancy bv Prof. dr. Wim de Ridder 071 78 50 877 www.futuresstudies.nl www.futuresfit.nl
Notas del editor
- Sequencing cost per base pair has been halving every 1.3 years since 1971, falling by a factor of over 100 million between the 1970's and 2008. The pace of price decline has displayed a double-exponential trend, so that since 1998 the halving rate has accelerated to about every 8 months. What would have cost $100 in the mid-1970's, and about $10 in 1990 fell to a dime in 2000 and 2 thousandths of a penny in 2008.
- Five Historical Waves The global economy has now entered the deployment phase of the fifth technology investment cycle of the past 250 years. As Carlota Perez has shown, global economic activity since the advent of the industrial revolution has been dominated by five 40-60 year cycles or waves that are characterized by alternating periods of invention, when investment spending slows and periods of deployment, when investment spending and productivity growth is more rapid. Much like the period between 1945 and 1971, the current deployment phase is likely to be a long period of sustained growth and real value creation. This will be a period of adjustment when novel business models will exploit the new IT infrastructure that is now being put in place that enable more porous, open, collaborative approaches that seek to leverage the economics and flexibility of global sourcing. Enterprises of all sizes will drive a shift toward the application of technology in new and fundamentally transformed business models, processes and operations. An increased need for infrastructure simplification will slow IT spending rates, consolidate key IT sectors, and permit the emergence of new services competitors. However, the shift will create entirely new opportunities to access client spending that will grow rapidly.5 IBM has labeled the new market opportunity Business Performance Transformation Services (BPTS). This will be a period of adjustment when novel business models will exploit the new IT infrastructure that is now being put in place that enable more porous, open, collaborative approaches that seek to leverage the economics and flexibility of global sourcing. Enterprises of all sizes will drive a shift toward the application of technology in new and fundamentally transformed business models, processes and operations. This shift will create entirely new opportunities to access client spending that will grow rapidly. Transitioning to the deployment phase is not without risk, however. Clients must gain confidence in the profit generating ability of the new approaches. The timing of the decisions to shift spending priorities is uncertain as perceptions of effectiveness will require time. New entrants, with “net native” business designs, free of any legacy transformation burden will challenge incumbents. By 2008, spending on solutions is expected to account for 70% of all IT spend. These solutions are often primarily focused on IT requirements of business decision makers and do not necessarily drive the same fundamental change to client business models, processes and operations as will be apparent over the longer term. The "installation period" is the time of creative destruction, when: new technologies emerge from the lab into the marketplace entrepreneurs start many new businesses based on these new technologies venture capitalists encourage experimentation with new business models and speculation in new money-making schemes Inevitably, this all leads to the kind of financial bubble and crash we are all quite familiar with from our recent experience. After the crash, comes the "deployment period," which she views as a time of institutional recomposition: the now well accepted technologies and economic paradigms become the norm infrastructures and industries start getting better defined and more stable production capital drives long-term growth and expansion by spreading and multiplying the successful business models Carlota Perez believes that we may not yet have entered the deployment period, as the crash phase doesn't seem to have resolved itself. She mentions three particular structural tensions that we need still to work out in order to move on: investments continue to be focused on short-term gain, not on long-term production and growth the social system continues to foster an unstable environment in which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer there is too much "idle money" chasing and inflating assets like housing and not going into expanding the demand needed to soak up all the excess supply being produced
- The coming period of Institutional Adjustment This period will be impacted by many significant forces currently at play in the now economy. The economy is now truly global, with significant input from across the globe. The available resource pool that businesses can pull from has doubled - a shift that has the potential to have a significant impact on all businesses. Social and political tension is mounting over these trends. Businesses must acknowledge these tensions and work to address them going forward. Open standards and modularization provide significant opportunities for businesses of all shapes and sizes, but demand adherence to common standards across countries and industries. With a new global workforce and evolving modular business models, collaborative tools and organizational models will be more and more important to ensure work gets done in an effective and efficient manner. Given these trends the individual holds more power than ever. Each person can make choices on where they work, how they work, and what information they choose to access. Enabling, harnessing, and eventually profiting from this power will be key for businesses across the globe.
- IT Industry Landscape. The combination of the current economic environment and old business models will leave some Vendors in declining financial health. Some old competitors will emerge from this stronger, some will die a slow death or merge with others. In the meantime, new competitors are staking claim to the future of the IT industry…an industry with new business models based on services and built off the transformation to cloud computing infrastructures. The current economic environment and the shift towards new business models will cause the competitive landscape to shift forever.
- Daarnaast investeren we in vernieuwende samenwerkingen met partijen die het mogelijk maken om de manier waarop zorginnovatie patiënten bereikt te optimaliseren. Recent kondigden Philips en Achmea Zorg een intensieve samenwerking aan. We zijn van mening dat beide partijen, vanuit hun eigen kennis- en expertisegebieden, elkaar uitstekend aanvullen als het gaat om het optimaliseren van zorgpaden, waarmee de kwaliteit en efficiëntie van de zorg verbeterd kan worden. Een brede coalitie van zorgverleners, patiënten, industrie en verzekeraars is gevormd. Zij gaan samen vanuit het perspectief van de patiënt en zorgverlener werken aan vernieuwende zorg op afstand oplossingen die de zelfredzaamheid van patiënten vergroten en de zorg efficiënter maken. De stichting is onafhankelijk om haar slagkracht en innovatiesnelheid te vergroten en wordt mogelijk gemaakt door Philips en Achmea. De ideeën en concepten die ontspruiten uit dit initiatief zijn toegankelijk voor de markt.
- Het LifeTec gebied is echter niet alleen veelbelovend, maar door zijn multidisciplinaire karakter ook zeer uitdagend. Een primaire vereiste is het hebben van de juiste kennis en kunde, de juiste mensen, en de juiste infrastructuur en dit alles op één locatie. Philips is daarom een van de drijvende krachten geweest in het creëren van een ‘ecosysteem’ waarin de gehele waardeketen in de regio is verankerd: van exploratieve research tot en met het ontwerpen, maken en verkopen. Dit ecosysteem is de High Tech Campus in Eindhoven. Een dynamische en synergetische mix van start-ups en grote bedrijven. De komst van het Zwitserse moleculair diagnostiek bedrijf Biocartis geeft aan dat de High Tech Campus, als een center of excellence, een internationale aantrekkende werking heeft. Het is belangrijk om actief deel te nemen aan, en tevens het voortouw te nemen in R&D programma management netwerken, zodat richting gegeven kan worden aan deze programma’s (omvangrijke programma’s met een totale budget van vele miljarden). Tevens kan met de opgedane kennis ook de juiste richting te gegeven worden aan de eigen R&D activiteiten. De High Tech Campus acteert wat dit betreft op Europees niveau. Op het gebied van de gezondheidszorg is het CTMM hier een mooi voorbeeld van. Twee knooppunten van R&D programma management die recent geland zijn op de High Tech Campus zijn de twee Knowledge Innovation Community (KIC) knoopunten van het nieuwe European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT): ICT Labs en InnoEnergy (voor duurzame energie). Nederland kan zich daardoor meten met de kennisclusters rond Parijs, Berlijn en Stockholm.
- IT Industry Landscape. The combination of the current economic environment and old business models will leave some Vendors in declining financial health. Some old competitors will emerge from this stronger, some will die a slow death or merge with others. In the meantime, new competitors are staking claim to the future of the IT industry…an industry with new business models based on services and built off the transformation to cloud computing infrastructures. The current economic environment and the shift towards new business models will cause the competitive landscape to shift forever.