The document summarizes a research methodology for developing a multi-tiered dynamic systems model of Indonesia's sustainable biodiesel industry. The research aims to conceptualize micro and macro models to better understand relationships between the biodiesel industry and sustainability at both the industry and national levels. The micro model focuses on the biodiesel production chain and incorporates financial, environmental, and social indicators. The macro model links the micro model's sustainability outputs to energy demand and analyzes scenarios to inform integrated government policies that support a mature biodiesel industry and market in Indonesia.
1. Pengembangan Model Multi Tingkatan Industri Biodiesel Berbahan
Minyak Kelapa Sawit secara Berkelanjutan di Indonesia
dengan Pendekatan Sistem Dinamis
Akhmad Hidayatno
NPM 0806400882
Program Studi Teknik Kimia
2. Agenda of the Presentations
• Research Overviews and Methodology
• Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation
• Model Verification and Validation
• Scenarios Development and Analysis
2
3. Due to the pressure of increase oil prices starting in 2006, the government initiated
energy diversification program that includes biodiesel
2025
Penciptaan 10.22 mil kL
Kepastian Efek Nilai Tambah Industri
Regulasi Diversifikasi BBN 20%
Pasar Penyerapan Tenaga Kerja
UU 30/2007,
(Untuk
Inpres 1/2006,
BioDiesel
Peningkatan Nilai Tambah 2015
Penggerak Ekonomi
Permen ESDM 32/2008
2025: 20%) Domestik
4.52 mil kL
Menko Perekonomian Menteri Perdagangan International Standard
15%
Bodies (RSPO)
Menteri Perindustrian Menteri Keuangan LSM International
Export and
International Market
2010
Cultivation CPO/Oil
Production
BioDiesel
Production Blending Distribution
Local Market
Subsidi Langsung
2.41 mil kL
Menko Perekonomian
Menteri Kehutanan
Menko Perekonomian
Menteri Perindustrian
Menko Perekonomian
Menteri Perindustrian
Menko Perekonomian
Menteri ESDM
Menko Perekonomian
Menteri ESDM
Pembelian 5%
Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan Menteri Keuangan
Menteri Negara
Lingkungan Hidup
Menteri Negara Riset
dan Teknologi
Menteri Negara Riset
dan Teknologi
Menteri Negara Riset
dan Teknologi
Menteri Negara
Lingkungan Hidup Biodiesel
Meneg BUMN
Meneg Koperasi &
UKM
Meneg BUMN
Meneg Koperasi &
UKM
Meneg BUMN
Meneg Koperasi &
UKM
PERTAMINA
Meneg BUMN
PERTAMINA Rp 2000,-
Menteri Pertanian Menteri Perhubungan Menteri Perhubungan
Mendagri Mendagri
Gubernur dan Bupati Gubernur dan Bupati
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 - now
Diversification Investment Biodiesel Reality
Started Attractiveness Producers kicks in ???
Growth
Harga Minyak Dunia Meroket,
Harga CPO Anjlok
1.8 juta kL 50%
14 1
4. What are the challenges and impacts of biodiesel industry
development in Indonesia?
What should the government do to What is the sustainability contribution
support the emergence of mature and impact of a mature Biodiesel
biodiesel industry and market? Industry in Indonesia at the national
level?
how? what?
Micro Model of impact Macro Model of
Biodiesel National
Production Chain Sustainable
Enterprise Development
4
5. .. early hypothesis can be drawn into these 2 reference modes showing 2
possible outcomes of biodiesel industry growth …
Produksi Biodiesel
Modus Referensi:
Grafik ini menunjukkan kekhawatiran pemerintah
Perusahaan selaku pemilik permasalahan terhadap kemungkinan
Biodiesel adanya gap antara produksi biodiesel ideal dengan
Harapan produksi sesungguhnya.
Modus Referensi:
Perusahaan
Biodiesel
Dihindari
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Modus Referensi:
Perusahaan
Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel
Biodiesel Modus Grafik ini menunjukkan kekhawatiran pemerintah
Referensi: selaku pemilik permasalahan terhadap kemungkinan
Perusahaan
Biodiesel Harapan tidak tertariknya industri swasta terhadap produksi
Modus Referensi:
biodiesel
Perusahaan
Biodiesel Modus
Referensi:
Perusahaan
Biodiesel Dihindari
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
5
6. Alternatif Kebijakan ESDM
Facilitating Quantity Matching Price Government Freeing Allocate
Markets Regulations Grants Regulations Corporations Markets Property Meneg BUMN
(Legalize) Rights
Tax Credits Tariffs Subsidies
Meneg UKM
Kehutanan
Interfacing Model
Pertanian
SAM (Social Accounting Matrix)
Perdagangan
Reference Energy
Masukan dan System
Konsumsi Kinerja Keluaran Meneg LH
Faktor Eksternal
Produksi
Terpenuhinya Target
Harga Minyak Perindustrian
Nasional Produksi
Dunia Biodiesel secara
Berkelanjutan Menristek
Harga Ekspor Pendapatan
Kebutuhan Total Loan/Debt Ekonomi/
Minyak Kelapa
Sawit Energi per Sektor Keuangan
Model Makro
(Transportasi PSO, Investasi
Non-Psi, Industri) Pendidikan Kinerja Berkelanjutan Problem Owner: Mendagri
Total Luas pada Mikro dan Makro Pemerintah (Gubernur/
Lahan Lahan Teknologi Bupati)
Energy Balance Indikator Ekonomi
Tenaga Kerja
Kurs Mata Tujuan Utama:
Uang Daya Dukung Pemenuhan Target Jangka
Lingkungan Indikator Sosial Panjang Pemanfaatan
Pasokan Energi Kesehatan
(Tanah, Air) Bahan Bakar Nabati
Tidak Terbarukan
(Gas, Coal, Nasional
Indikator Lingkungan
Pasokan Energi Sumber Daya Kemiskinan
Keterbarukan Lingkungan Usaha
(Other Biofuels, Konservasi
Geothermal,
Hydro) Emisi/Polusi (GHG, Populasi
Toxic Susbtance)
Stakeholder
(Pengusaha Biodiesel, PERTAMINA,
Pabrik dan Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit,
Pasokan Biodiesel Kontribusi Lingkungan Kontribusi Sosial Konsumen Biosolar, LSM, RSPO)
Model Mikro
Industri BioDiesel
Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Produksi MKS/CPO Produksi BioDiesel
En En En
Ec Soc Ec Soc Ec Soc
LCA LCA LCA
6
7. Research Methodology is based on system dynamics methodology
Formulasi Riset
Tujuan, Batasan, Journal Review,
Pengumpulan Data
Pengembangan Konseptual
Model Mikro
Tujuan, Batasan, Asumsi, Modus Referensi,
Hipotesa Dinamis, dan Causal Loop
Diagram Utama Model Mikro
Model Finansial
Pengembangan Model finansial
dengan aplikasi spreadsheet
Pengembangan Model Mikro Life Cycle Analysis
Pengumpulan dan Pengolahan Data, Stock Perhitungan LCA berdasarkan
peta proses dan model
and Flow Model Mikro, Verifikasi dan
finansial
Pengembangan Konseptual
Validasi
Model Makro
Tujuan, Batasan, Asumsi, Modus Referensi,
Hipotesa Dinamis, dan Causal Loop
Diagram Utama Model Makro
Pengembangan Skenario Pengembangan Model Makro
Analisa Alternatif Kebijakan, Pengolahan Pengumpulan dan Pengolahan Data, Stock
Data Input and Flow Model Makro, Verifikasi dan
Validasi
Simulasi Skenario & Analisa
Skenario dijalankan didalam simulasi dan di
analisa
Analisa Perilaku Model dan
Skenario 7
8. Agenda of the Presentations
• Research Overviews and Methodology
• Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation
• Model Verification and Validation
• Scenarios Development and Analysis
8
9. The research acknowledges that developing this model is a daunting task
with so many information still unknown…
Bioenergy Modeling is more Complex
Ross (2000) Highlights 3 Complexities of Bioenergy Modeling
(1) Local conditions of sources would limit the generic model,
(2) still few documented large scale bioenergy systems,
(3) Biofuel are usually a by-products of main activities which would increase
dependencies
Ability to map the complex systemic relationships of 3 aspects of sustainability
The complex relationships of variables within the systems can be traced and
evaluated
Preparation for still so many unknown variables
Long Time Period of Analysis
The target for biofuel development is 20 years.
Short-term or medium-term model that dominates economic models is insufficient
9
10. We develop the micro model based on process map of biodiesel production chain,
supported by financial model, LCA approach, and sustainability framework in
corporations …
Peta Proses Penetapan dan Proyeksi Data
Produksi Exogenous yang Berpengaruh
pada Seluruh Komponen Model
Sub-Model Financial Sub-Model Verifikasi Analisa
Produksi Model Sustainability dan Validasi Simulasi
Indicators
Variable Variable
Finansial Environment
(LCA)
Production Perhitungan Mendapatkan
Data Rumus LCA dari data
Kalkulasi Investasi, Sekunder
Pendanaan dan
Biaya Detail dalam Variable
Spreadsheet Labor Social
Konsep
Sustainability
10
11. .. the micro model also tries to accommodate different ownership structure types of
the production chain ..
Structure 1 (Code 1) PALM CPO FACTORY CPO MARKET
PLANTATION
Total Differentiation. No Single
Ownership of all Chains
BIODIESEL BIODIESEL
FACTORY MARKET
Structure 2 (Code 2)
PALM CPO FACTORY CPO MARKET
PLANTATION
Plantation and CPO Factory are single
owner, however Biodiesel Factory is
independent.
BIODIESEL BIODIESEL
This is the typical structure of the industry FACTORY MARKET
Structure 3 (Code 3)
PALM
Conglomeration, total vertical PLANTATION CPO FACTORY
integration. All Chain are owned by
single company dedicated to
BioDiesel MArket
BIODIESEL BIODIESEL
FACTORY MARKET
11
12. .. And we come up with this conclusions as a dynamic hypothesis
Export Tariffs
Biodiesel
Production
Extraction CPO Domestic No of Biodiesel
Rate CPO Supply Companies
Biodiesel
Production
Production “Green Gold”
Volume Exports Income
R2 – Biodiesel Capacity
Investment
Biodiesel National
CPO Production Investment B1 – Biodiesel
Capacity Biodiesel
Cost of Attractiveness Competition Supply
World Biodiesel
Environmental CPO Price
Protection (RSPO) Company
Profitability
Supply and
CPO Producers
Demand Gap
Fresh Fruit Bunch Profitability R1 – CPO
Investment Drive
(FFB) Production
Biodiesel Price Biodiesel
Plantation Domestic Subsidy Blending
Area CPO Price Domestic Mandate
CPO Price for Diesel Price
Land Clearing Time to CO2 Integrated
Rate Recovery Ownership
Structure World Oil National Biodiesel
Slash and Price Demand
Burn
Environmental
Impacts (LCA) Environment
Land Domestic
Number of Not Slash and Certification
Productivity Subsidy National Diesel
Workers Burn Fuel Demand
R3 – Land
Expansion Domestic CPO
Unproductive R2 – Biodiesel
Forest Effects on CPO Demand
Land Critical Land CPO Producers’ Price
Workers CSR Allocation
Productivity Domestic GDP
Peat Land
12
13. .. and developing the stock and flow model, this is the bird view of the micro
model …
Physical Flow – Pulled by Demand
Financial Calculation Information Extraction and
Flow
13
14. .. which can be simplified …
• CO2 • Land Opening
Environmental Impact • Life Cycle Analysis
Material Flow
National Petrol Diesel Demand
Plantation CPO Factory Biodiesel Factory
• Land Opening • Factory Activity • Factory Activity
• Plantation Activity • Palm Oil Production • Biodiesel Production
• Palm Oil Harvesting • Palm Kernel Oil Prod • Gliserin Production
Plantation CPO Factory Biodiesel Factory
• Investment &Loan • Investment and Loan • Investment & Loan
• Cash flow • Cash flow & Profitability • Cash flow & Nat. Demand
• FFB Price • CPO & PKO Price • Biodiesel & Petrol Price
Information and Financial Flow
• Employment • Rural Development
Social Impact • RSPO • Nucleus Development
14
15. After developing the mikro model the research started to work on the macro
model ..
What are the challenges and impacts of biodiesel industry
development in Indonesia?
What kind of integrated policy the
government should do to support
the emergence of mature biodiesel
The models aims to
industry and market?
• better understanding of the
structure of relationships between
biodiesel industry and
sustainability in the national level What is the sustainability
• Shows the behavior of key contribution and impact of a mature
sustainable indicators with the Biodiesel Industry in Indonesia at
production of biodiesel the national level?
15
16. .. it will link through a translator sub-module with focus on mikro model of
sustainability indicators and makro model energy demand outputs which translates
to biodiesel demands …
social output
model environmental
makro output
sustainability
input (T21 impact
Based)
economy
output
Agregasi/dis-agregasi linear
dengan mempertimbangkan
delay
energy
demand sub-
model
environmental
output
input model
mikro social output
sustainability
financial indicators
output
16
17. … and we found T21 Starting Framework Model that based on sustainability
interactions of developing nations …
Tenaga Kerja Produktif , Konsumsi RT
Sosial &
Economic Human
Capital Capital
Infrastruktur, Bangunan, Kesehatan, keahlian,
Alat-alat Produksi, dsb pengetahuan,
semangat komunitas
Pendapatan, Kesempatan Kerja
Emisi Polusi, Sampah, Efek Kesehatan,
investasi konservasi Kualitas hidup
sumber daya Modal
ekonomi,
menyerap/ Lingkungan
melepaskan
polutan Flora dan fauna,
sumber daya alam, air, kesadaran
udara konservasi
lingkungan
17
18. … it is transparent and robust, so it can be expanded to accommodate the need for
analysis of other areas that affects sustainable development…
REGIONAL
ENERGY DEVELOP
MENT
T21
Energy T21 Papua
USA
T21 has been used in many countries and for different focus analysis of sustainability
framework, there are T21 China, Lolland, North America, USA, Jamaica, Ghana,
Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Papua, Guyana 18
19. .. we start to investigate 3 model variations of T21 models to seek
understanding of the structure involved …
Basic Structure
(Starting Framework)
T21 Starting
Framework Focuses on MDGs Numbers
Showcase of SD approach:
behavior not projections
T21 Energy
T21 Papua
USA
Energy Supply Demand Modules Analysis Mining Infrastructure
Focuses on US Energy Policy Impact to social and environment
Regional Model of Papua
19
20. .. and we decided to use T21 as the base model, why? ..
Build on the T21 Strength
Ability to map and draw the complex systemic relationships of 3 aspects of
sustainability, Transparency, Fitness of Use (Aggregation Level and Time Period of
Analysis), Tools for increasing understanding
The only models that started from sustainability development perspectives
Other models were begun as economy-energy models than expanding to cover
environment and social aspects
Compatibility with the micro model development
Biodiesel industry sub model has been developed
Indonesian sub-models are already exist
T21 Papua focuses on the development of Papua
Opening the door of future researches on sustainability
The basic model of BSM can be used for other purpose of analysis
20
21. … we re-engineered the model based on this logic …
T21 Starting 2008 Data
T21 Papua Updates &
Framework Structure Availability
T21 Energy Data
USA Structure Processing
Biodiesel
Tujuan Model Sustainability
Model (BSM)
Biodiesel Aggregating
Micro Model Engine
21
22. … we updates the data using these data sources …
Ekonomi Sosial Lingkungan Energi
World Bank: World Development Index X X X
Report and Database 2009
Ringkasan Laporan APBN 2005-2010 X
International Monetary Fund Report and Economic X
Outlook 2009
Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi Indonesia 2005 X X
Statistical Database Bank Indonesia X
Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) X X
Statistics
International Labor Organization Report X
Organization For Economic Co-Operation And X
Development (OECD) Report
FAO reports on Forestry and Water Utilization X
Energy Handbook – Kementerian ESDM 2005- X
2010
Energy Information Administration (EIA) X
International Energy Outlook (IEO)
Navigating the numbers , Greenhouse Gas Data x
and International Climate Policy – World Resource
Institute (WRI)
22
23. .. these are the sub-models dan modules …
Ekonomi Sosial Lingkungan Energi
Produksi populasi perubahan Permintaan energi jumlah produksi
Pertanian iklim rumah tangga biodiesel
Produksi teknologi efek rumah Permintaan energi jumlah tenaga
Industri kaca & polusi Industri kerja
Produksi Jasa pendidikan cadangan air Permintaan energi jumlah
Jasa penggunaan
lahan
Investasi tenaga kerja kehutanan permintaan energi pendapatan
transportasi nominal
Pendapatan distribusi Eksplorasi Minyak jumlah
Pemerintah pendapatan Bumi kontribusi pajak
Pengeluaran rumah Biaya Minyak
Pemerintah tangga Bumi
Neraca harapan Total Kebutuhan
Pemerintah hidup energi
Perdagangan
Internasional
Harga Relatif
23
24. .. and these are the dynamic relationships …
Economy Social
education
Government Government
Revenue Expenditure
Life
Household expectancy
Consumption
R1Public health
Economic
Growth Loop
population
international
trade R4 productivity
loop
Household
Income employment
Environmental
Household
Savings Climate Impact
3 sectors R3 technology
growth loop GHG & Carbon
R2 Private production Footprint
Economy Loop
Forest
Investment Carbon Cycle
Water
Technology Energy Demand
R5 biodiesel
residential demand growth
loop
technology
services
biodiesel
industrial
industry
transportation
24
26. .. and this is the simplified diagram of the integrated BSM model
Biodiesel Development Model
Sustainability Impact Macro Sub-Model
Sustainable
Socio- Tech
Indicators
Environment Module Module
GHG Climate Forest Water
Emission Change Household
Social
Life Expectancy
Income
Economy Economic Module Distribution
Environ-
Production Government Population
ment
Agri Serv Ind Inco Exp Balan
me end ce Technology
Energy
Mix
Relative International Investment Employment
Prices Trade
Biodiesel
Volume
Energy Module
Oil Energy Demand
Prod Explora National Residential Serv Ind Transp
tion Price ort
Biodiesel
Sustainable Indicator Financial Social LCA Environment Micro
Sub-Model
Land Clearing and CPO Factory Biodiesel Biodiesel
Plantation Price &
Demand
Land Clearing Expansion Expansion Module
Rate & Types Plantation Decision Extraction Decision
Integrated Chain Single
Chain
26
27. .. with these global assumptions for both micro and macro models …
Endogenous Exogenous Excluded
Production Volume and World Oil Price Weather and Climate
Capacity Expansion World CPO Price Workers Productivity
Cost of Goods Sold Fresh Fruit Bunch Price Technology
Population Biodiesel Blending, Deman Politics and Social Issues
Life Expectancy Land Productivity Disaster
Education Index Subsidized Diesel Market Price Crime and Corruption
GDP Inflation Terrorism
Technology Migration War
Investment Population Growth Rate Other renewable energy
Consumption Health production
Debt Mining Production
Land Utilization Grants
Energi Demand Emergency Funds
Oil Production Exchange Rate
GHG Emissions Urbanization Rate
Carbon Cycle Omission and Adjustments Table
Climate Change
Forest
27
28. And connecting the micro and macro model ..
Micro Model Sub-Models Macro Model Sub-Models
Tax Financial ► Government Income Economy
Income from Production Financial ► Agricultural Production Economy
Labor Social ► Employment Social
Land Clearing Environment ► Forest Environment
Net CO2 Emission Environment ► Net CO2 Emission Environment
Actual Biodiesel ► Biodiesel Production Aggregate Energy
Production Financial
Biodiesel Demand Financial ◄ National Petroleum Demand Energy
28
29. .. with the capabilities to generate these sustainability indicators …
micro
Financial Social Environment Energy
Biodiesel EBITDA, IRR, & NPV Biodiesel Produced (ton)
Workers (People) CO2 Emission (kg CO2)
(IDR)
Palm Oil Plantation EBITDA, Plasma Farmers Household Photo-oxydant formation (kg
IRR, & NPV (IDR) (Number) Ethylene)
Climate Change (Kilo Ton Emtion)
Human Ecotoxicity (kg NO2)
Nature Abiotic Depletion (kg
Antimony)
Eutrophication Impact (kg SO2)
Acidification Impact (kg PO4)
macro
Economi Social Environment Energy
Greenhouse Gas emissions
Agricultural Production Residential Petroleum Demand
Population (person) per USD of GDP
(USD) (kiloliter)
(kg/(year*USD))
Rural Gini Coefficient Carbon Footprints per Capita
Industrial Production (USD) Industrial Petroleum Demand (kiloliter)
(index) (kg/(year*person))
Unemployment Commercial Petroleum Demand
Service Production (USD) Forest Land (km2)
(number) (kiloliter)
Real GDP at Market Price Transportation Petroleum Demand
CO2 Emission Total and Fuel
(USD) (kiloliter)
Real GDP per Capita (USD) Total Energy Demand (BOE)
Biodiesel Share of Energy (BOE)
29
30. Agenda of the Presentations
• Research Overviews and Methodology
• Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation
• Model Verification and Validation
• Scenarios Development and Analysis
30
31. Micro Model Verification and Validation
Output
Aspek Finansial (min) (max) (rata-rata) Deviasi Referensi
Model
Produktivitas CPO infosawit, juni 2009 hal
3.73 3.91 4 9.66%
(ton/hektar/tahun) 3.37 22
Produktivitas TBS 21.3324997 infosawit, juni 2009 hal
20 30 25 6.66%
(ton/hektar/tahun) 3 49
Ekstraksi CPO (ton/ton TBS) 20% 23.75% 23.50% 1.05% iyung pahan, hal 306
Ekstraksi KPO (ton/ton TBS) 0.045 0.055 0.05 0.00% iyung pahan, hal 306
0.05
Rp Rp Rp Rp
HPP CPO (ribu rupiah/ton) 8.01% iyung pahan, hal 306
1,542.00 3,751.00 2,646.50 3,450.59
rata-rata Output
Deviasi
Aspek Sosial Min Max (10 ribu hektar) Model
5 orang / 10 hektar 1 orang/ 10 hektar 1000 1000 0.00%
penyerapan tenaga kerja perkebunan Perkebunan
infosawit, februari 2009
referensi infosawit, mei 2009 hal 12 hal 15
Output
Aspek Lingkungan (min) (max) (rata-rata) Deviasi Referensi
Model
Emisi GHG-GRK CPO Production infosawit, oktober 2009
250 450 350 418 7.044357%
(kg CO2-eq/ton CPO) hal 46
31
32. .. the model behave as we expected in the reference modes …
Produksi Pertanian Biodiesel Production
$100.00 12 kiloliter/yr
$80.00 10 kiloliter/yr
8 kiloliter/yr
BMilliar USD
Millions
$60.00
6 kiloliter/yr
$40.00 4 kiloliter/yr
$20.00 2 kiloliter/yr
0 kiloliter/yr
$-
2016
2022
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
2024
2025
Produksi Biodiesel Model Produksi Biodiesel Referensi
Dengan Biodiesel Tanpa Biodiesel
Modus Referensi Produsen Biodiesel
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel Model
Jumlah Produsen Biodiesel BAU
32
33. .. we also validates the key variables on GDP and agricultural production ..
Sub-Model Ekonomi :
Nilai Produksi Pertanian (USD)
Nilai Produksi Domestik Bruto (USD)
Produk Domestik Bruto Perbedaaan
Economic Sphere
T21 Indonesia World Bank Hasil
2006 $ 229,018.64 $ 219,327.66 4.42%
2007 $ 247,375.08 $ 233,097.35 6.13%
2008 $ 253,366.27 $ 247,228.81 2.48%
Agricultural Production Perbedaaan
Economic Sphere
T21 Indonesia World Bank Hasil
2006 $ 31,500.72 $ 31,157.66 1.10%
2007 $ 33,767.00 $ 32,226.13 4.78%
2008 $ 36,225.87 $ 33,762.22 7.30%
33
34. .. and the key variables on population, forest land and total energi demand..
Sub-Model Sosial-Teknologi :
Populasi Indonesia
Sub-Model Lingkungan :
Total Lahan Hutan
Sub-Model Energi
Total Permintaan Energi
Populasi Perbedaaan
Aspek Sosial
T21 Indonesia UN Ecosoc Hasil
2006 219,210,292 221,936,080 1.23%
2007 223,199,430 224,645,990 0.64%
2008 227,172,106 227,323,560 0.07%
2009 231,094,107 229,952,620 0.50%
2010 234,919,243 232,517,000 1.03%
Environmental Sphere 2006 2007 2008 2009
T21 Indonesia 866,236.00 852,279.97 836,752.62 819,088.11
Forest Land
UN FAO Projection 866,236.00 847,522.00 840,741.82 834,015.89
Total Kebutuhan Energi Perbedaaan
Energy Sphere
T21 Indonesia Handbook ESDM Hasil
2006 538,514,397.37 538,453,524 0.01%
2007 582,389,558.64 576,827,000 0.96%
2008 614,832,910.93 643,691,000 4.48%
2009 630,507,616.78 656,564,820 3.97%
2010 721,556,811.56 715,655,654 0.82% 34
35. Agenda of the Presentations
• Research Overviews and Methodology
• Model Conceptualization and Model Formulation
• Model Verification and Validation
• Scenarios Development and Analysis
35
36. .. From the purpose of the research, we formulate these questions for
analysis …
• How is the cost structure?
• Has the current strategy of subsidy, TLCF, etc works?
Insights on • What factors create more than one impact to
Micro Level sustainability?
biodiesel
micro model
The minimum condition for Micro Model to Works
• Could the model evaluates the Government Promise
of 3Pros with Biodiesel?
Insights on • How is the behavior dynamics of the impacts?
Macro Level
sustainability
macro model If the promise is correct, How?
Government Roles: Direct vs Indirect
Scenarios to Micro Model Switch Macro Model Results
Highlight the
Sustainability Without Biodiesel Scenario A Selected
Dynamics Focus
Direct Strategy Scenario B1
Indicators
Indirect Strategy Scenario B2
Scenarios & Plausible, not just possible
Analysis 36