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Crude Awakening
28 January 2016
War Room
HiddenLevers War Room
Open Q + A
Macro Coaching
Archived webinars
CE Credit
Idea Generation
Presentation deck
Product UpdatesScenario Updates
Market Update
Oil Redux
Scenario Update: Crude Awakening
Crude Awakening
HiddenLevers
MARKET UPDATE
Market Update
sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes, Zerohedge, Guardian, Atlantic, Wikipedia
1
Zimbabwe
China Colony
2
3
Obamacare
worries
mount
Finance
Industry
in
Limelight
Market Update: Fed Mea Culpa
4
sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Marketwatch
March rate
hike off the
table
2015 Fed
Stress Tests
dead wrong
on oil
Foreign QE
ECB + China
too early
or
too late?
Still no 2016
Fed Stress
Tests
Market Update: January Correction in Context
sources: Yardeni Research
Year S+P Return %
Recession
?
1948/49 -59 Y
1957 -21 Y
1962 -26 N
1966 -22 N
1968/70 -36 Y
1973/74 -48 Y
1976/78 -19 N
1980/82 -27 Y
1987 -34 N
1990 -20 Y
1998 -19 N
2000/02 -49 Y
2007/09 -56 Y
2011 -19 N
Aside from 1987 crash,
all 30%+ corrections
were part of a recession.
Even if current 12% drop
doubled, recession not
guaranteed.
5
HiddenLevers
OIL REDUX
Oil Redux: Phases of the Crash
sources: CBC
Phase 1
•US Dollar rise
•No risk premium
Phase 2
•Saudis pumping
•Everyone pumping
•China Slowing
Phase 3
•Iranian oil back
•US demand flat
•Tech advances
Oil Redux: Max Draw Down Comparisons
sources: HiddenLevers
Current Oil correction is in line with 1980 and 2008 crashes.
-76%
-71%
-70%
-55% -55%
Oil Redux: Supply / Demand Balance
sources: HiddenLevers, OilPrice.com
Demand Factors:
• Global growth slowdown
• US demand stagnant / dwindling
• Electric Vehicles
• US Demographic Shift
Supply Factors:
• US producers hedged into 2017
• Iran production ramp-up
• Saudi / OPEC still not cutting?
Oil Redux: Equity / Oil Correlation
sources: HiddenLevers
Year
Oil
Loss
%
S+P
Return
%
1985/86 -59 +22
1987/88 -35 -10
1990 -27 +5
1990/91 -45 +23
1997/98 -55 +54
2000/01 -53 -21
2003 -31 +11
2004 -34 +5
2006/07 -35 +12
2008 -76 -29
2010 -21 -9
2011 -32 -15
2012 -29 -2
2014/16 -70 +3
14 OIL corrections  Six S&P 500 declines
• Recessions knock down both oil + equities
• Mid-cycle oil crashes have little impact
Oil Redux: Energy Sector Impact
source: HiddenLevers
Upstream:
Need for cash = pumping all-out
Many firms will pump into the teens
(eg FCX @ $16/barrel cash cost)
Many firms’ shares down 90%
Downstream:
Refiners’ profits up on cheap oil
Retailers’ profits up on cheap gas
Refiner ETF has ½ downside of S&P
Midstream:
MLPs hit by lack of future growth
Many MLPs are overleveraged
MLP ETFs down 50%
-90%
-50%
+5%
Oil Redux: US Economic Impact
source: HiddenLevers, Resource Reports, WSJ
Cheaper oil
=
HIGHER GDP
Cheaper oil
=
DEFLATION Cheaper oil
=
NO IMPACT
ON CORE
INFLATION
Cheaper oil
=
MORE
PEOPLE
EMPLOYED
Cheaper oil
=
PAYROLLS
INCREASE
Cheaper oil
=
MORE
SPENDING
Oil Redux: Global Economic Impact
source: HiddenLevers, Resource Reports, Bloomberg
GDP pop from cheap Oil:
• India + China
• Japan + S. Korea
• Eastern Europe
• SE Asia ex Malaysia
Sovereign Default Risk:
• Russia
Resource Countries Benefit too:
• Canada
• Brazil
• Chile
Oil Redux: Investment Posture
Opportunities Hedges
Airlines
Shipping + Transport
Lodging
Refiners
Non-energy in Resource Countries
Solar
Non-energy High Yield
sources: HiddenLevers
Utilities
Energy Importing Countries (Japan, India)
Refiners
Don’t believe the hype!
HiddenLevers
SCENARIOS: CRUDE AWAKENING
Scenario Update – Many in Play
Oil Crash
Good
Bounce
Back
Bad
Isolated
Crash
Ugly
Perfect
Storm
$32 -33%
$48
PRICED
IN
$74 +50%
key
lever
OPEC relents or Shale
producers fold.
Almost 60% decline in oil
since summer 2014, S&P
has been flat.
Oil prices pierce financial
crisis lows. Unlike 2008-09,
no V-Shaped recovery for
Oil.
Jan 2015
WAR ROOM
BAD: Shanghai Crash
foreign
money no
come back
China markets struggle but S+P in tact
source: HiddenLevers, WikInvest, Forbes, CNBC, WSJ
negative
wealth
effect
RE + credit
bubbles
don’t pop
69 P/E,
above 2007
peak
Still
holding!
margin calls
actually
happen
-4
-32
July 2015
WAR ROOM
UGLY: China Recession
triple
bubble pop
source: HiddenLevers, Economist, ZeroHedge,
seismic
economic
changes
China posts negative GDP as a consumer nation
govt actions
far exceed US
in 2008
China is
world’s #2
consumer
government
caught lying
drags down
commodities
producers
July 2015
WAR ROOM
BAD: Tech Reality Check
some
unicorns
die
Nasdaq stops outpacing S+P
source: HiddenLevers
SF property
market
correction
normalizing
P/E ratios
1y return
SPX +12
Nasdaq +23
May 2015
WAR ROOM
UGLY: Dot Com Déjà Vu
more muted
than 2000
crash
source: HiddenLevers
valuations
questioned
across tech
Fed may
restart QE
Unicorns crashing spooks Nasdaq
SPX less
damaged,
a la 2000
AAPL GOOG
take a hit
May 2015
WAR ROOM
Crude Awakening: Three Big Risks
Progress
58%
S&P
-10%
Progress
43%
S&P
-12%
Progress
39%
Energy sector bankruptcies
will rise as oil hedges roll
off. Low commodities prices
are tied to weak global
growth, but US likely avoids
recession.
Unicorn are being revalued
50-75% lower now, and tech
IPOs are mostly on hold.
Further downside possible if
tech growth story weakens
(AAPL, other FANGS)
China appears more likely to
slip into first recession in 30
years, with a devastating
impact on its suppliers. US
impact muted, but could
result in mild bear market
Commodities
Perfect
Storm
Dot Com
Deja Vu
China
Recession
S&P
-16%
Crude Awakening – Take Aways
Russia is primary
default risk on Cheap Oil
China more downside impact on
US than cheap oil
Cheap Oil = net benefit
(to most countries)
OPEC action needed to
lift Oil Prices

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Crude Awakening

  • 2. HiddenLevers War Room Open Q + A Macro Coaching Archived webinars CE Credit Idea Generation Presentation deck Product UpdatesScenario Updates
  • 3. Market Update Oil Redux Scenario Update: Crude Awakening Crude Awakening
  • 5. Market Update sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes, Zerohedge, Guardian, Atlantic, Wikipedia 1 Zimbabwe China Colony 2 3 Obamacare worries mount Finance Industry in Limelight
  • 6. Market Update: Fed Mea Culpa 4 sources: HiddenLevers, WSJ, Marketwatch March rate hike off the table 2015 Fed Stress Tests dead wrong on oil Foreign QE ECB + China too early or too late? Still no 2016 Fed Stress Tests
  • 7. Market Update: January Correction in Context sources: Yardeni Research Year S+P Return % Recession ? 1948/49 -59 Y 1957 -21 Y 1962 -26 N 1966 -22 N 1968/70 -36 Y 1973/74 -48 Y 1976/78 -19 N 1980/82 -27 Y 1987 -34 N 1990 -20 Y 1998 -19 N 2000/02 -49 Y 2007/09 -56 Y 2011 -19 N Aside from 1987 crash, all 30%+ corrections were part of a recession. Even if current 12% drop doubled, recession not guaranteed. 5
  • 9. Oil Redux: Phases of the Crash sources: CBC Phase 1 •US Dollar rise •No risk premium Phase 2 •Saudis pumping •Everyone pumping •China Slowing Phase 3 •Iranian oil back •US demand flat •Tech advances
  • 10. Oil Redux: Max Draw Down Comparisons sources: HiddenLevers Current Oil correction is in line with 1980 and 2008 crashes. -76% -71% -70% -55% -55%
  • 11. Oil Redux: Supply / Demand Balance sources: HiddenLevers, OilPrice.com Demand Factors: • Global growth slowdown • US demand stagnant / dwindling • Electric Vehicles • US Demographic Shift Supply Factors: • US producers hedged into 2017 • Iran production ramp-up • Saudi / OPEC still not cutting?
  • 12. Oil Redux: Equity / Oil Correlation sources: HiddenLevers Year Oil Loss % S+P Return % 1985/86 -59 +22 1987/88 -35 -10 1990 -27 +5 1990/91 -45 +23 1997/98 -55 +54 2000/01 -53 -21 2003 -31 +11 2004 -34 +5 2006/07 -35 +12 2008 -76 -29 2010 -21 -9 2011 -32 -15 2012 -29 -2 2014/16 -70 +3 14 OIL corrections  Six S&P 500 declines • Recessions knock down both oil + equities • Mid-cycle oil crashes have little impact
  • 13. Oil Redux: Energy Sector Impact source: HiddenLevers Upstream: Need for cash = pumping all-out Many firms will pump into the teens (eg FCX @ $16/barrel cash cost) Many firms’ shares down 90% Downstream: Refiners’ profits up on cheap oil Retailers’ profits up on cheap gas Refiner ETF has ½ downside of S&P Midstream: MLPs hit by lack of future growth Many MLPs are overleveraged MLP ETFs down 50% -90% -50% +5%
  • 14. Oil Redux: US Economic Impact source: HiddenLevers, Resource Reports, WSJ Cheaper oil = HIGHER GDP Cheaper oil = DEFLATION Cheaper oil = NO IMPACT ON CORE INFLATION Cheaper oil = MORE PEOPLE EMPLOYED Cheaper oil = PAYROLLS INCREASE Cheaper oil = MORE SPENDING
  • 15. Oil Redux: Global Economic Impact source: HiddenLevers, Resource Reports, Bloomberg GDP pop from cheap Oil: • India + China • Japan + S. Korea • Eastern Europe • SE Asia ex Malaysia Sovereign Default Risk: • Russia Resource Countries Benefit too: • Canada • Brazil • Chile
  • 16. Oil Redux: Investment Posture Opportunities Hedges Airlines Shipping + Transport Lodging Refiners Non-energy in Resource Countries Solar Non-energy High Yield sources: HiddenLevers Utilities Energy Importing Countries (Japan, India) Refiners Don’t believe the hype!
  • 18. Scenario Update – Many in Play
  • 19. Oil Crash Good Bounce Back Bad Isolated Crash Ugly Perfect Storm $32 -33% $48 PRICED IN $74 +50% key lever OPEC relents or Shale producers fold. Almost 60% decline in oil since summer 2014, S&P has been flat. Oil prices pierce financial crisis lows. Unlike 2008-09, no V-Shaped recovery for Oil. Jan 2015 WAR ROOM
  • 20. BAD: Shanghai Crash foreign money no come back China markets struggle but S+P in tact source: HiddenLevers, WikInvest, Forbes, CNBC, WSJ negative wealth effect RE + credit bubbles don’t pop 69 P/E, above 2007 peak Still holding! margin calls actually happen -4 -32 July 2015 WAR ROOM
  • 21. UGLY: China Recession triple bubble pop source: HiddenLevers, Economist, ZeroHedge, seismic economic changes China posts negative GDP as a consumer nation govt actions far exceed US in 2008 China is world’s #2 consumer government caught lying drags down commodities producers July 2015 WAR ROOM
  • 22. BAD: Tech Reality Check some unicorns die Nasdaq stops outpacing S+P source: HiddenLevers SF property market correction normalizing P/E ratios 1y return SPX +12 Nasdaq +23 May 2015 WAR ROOM
  • 23. UGLY: Dot Com Déjà Vu more muted than 2000 crash source: HiddenLevers valuations questioned across tech Fed may restart QE Unicorns crashing spooks Nasdaq SPX less damaged, a la 2000 AAPL GOOG take a hit May 2015 WAR ROOM
  • 24. Crude Awakening: Three Big Risks Progress 58% S&P -10% Progress 43% S&P -12% Progress 39% Energy sector bankruptcies will rise as oil hedges roll off. Low commodities prices are tied to weak global growth, but US likely avoids recession. Unicorn are being revalued 50-75% lower now, and tech IPOs are mostly on hold. Further downside possible if tech growth story weakens (AAPL, other FANGS) China appears more likely to slip into first recession in 30 years, with a devastating impact on its suppliers. US impact muted, but could result in mild bear market Commodities Perfect Storm Dot Com Deja Vu China Recession S&P -16%
  • 25. Crude Awakening – Take Aways Russia is primary default risk on Cheap Oil China more downside impact on US than cheap oil Cheap Oil = net benefit (to most countries) OPEC action needed to lift Oil Prices