Who Will Be The Future Tourist China
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Who will be tomorrows tourist? Presentation to the International Youth Hostel Association, China, June 2010
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Who Will Be The Future Tourist China
- 1. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Dr Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
- 3. Who will be tomorrows tourist?
- 4. Who will be tomorrows tourist? State of the art gym including ‘ two swim in place wave pools’ It’s such a stressful place to work you can escape to the stress capsule
- 5. Who will be tomorrows tourist? To get around, you slide around (or use the pole) Employees can eat all they want for free from a vast choice of food and drink
- 6. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Private cabins on each floor where employees can attend to personal affairs More stress, I’ll just find a masseur
- 7. So, where will you be going on holiday in 2050?
- 8. The World in 2050 Resources Wealth Technology
- 9. World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267
- 10. World Wealth Dadush & Stancil 2010 Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267
- 11. World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 2008 6829 1233 3014 2050 9150 1275 5596 Total Fertility Rate (per woman) 1950 5 2.8 6.2 2008 2.56 1.64 2.73 2050 2.02 1.8 2.05 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1950 46.6 66.1 41.1 2008 67.6 77.1 65.6 2050 75.5 82.8 74.3 % of Total Population 1950 100 32.1 67.9 2008 100 18.1 81.9 2050 100 13.9 86.1 Median Age 1950 24 29 21.6 2008 29.1 39.7 26.8 2050 38.4 45.6 37.2
- 12. World Population Forecasts World Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Population (millions) 1950 2529 812 1717 2008 6829 1233 3014 2050 9150 1275 5596 Total Fertility Rate (per woman) 1950 5 2.8 6.2 2008 2.56 1.64 2.73 2050 2.02 1.8 2.05 Life Expectancy at Birth (Years) 1950 46.6 66.1 41.1 2008 67.6 77.1 65.6 2050 75.5 82.8 74.3 Median Age 1950 24 29 21.6 2008 29.1 39.7 26.8 2050 38.4 45.6 37.2
- 13. Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
- 14. Net Gen by Population Source: UN 2009
- 15. Technology
- 17. Resources Hawksworth (2006) Growth (% pa except final column) GDP Primary Energy Non Fossil Fuels Carbon Emission: Annual Average Growth Carbon Emissions: Cumulative Growth to 2050 (% Change) Scorched Earth 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 233 Baseline Scenario 3.2 1.6 1.6 1.6 112 Greener Fuel Mix 3.2 1.6 3.6 1.1 64 Constrained Growth 2.6 1 1 1 61 Green Growth 3.2 0.6 2.5 0.1 4 Green Growth + CCS 3.2 0.6 2.5 -0.4 -17
- 18. Risk Financial Crisis and Depression Geopolitical Breakdown Protectionism Climate Change
- 20. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Society of plenty Scarcity of resources
- 21. Fluid identity
- 22. Educated, Multi Cultured and Knowledgeable
- 23. Sexuality Walters observes that feminism is about choice and empowerment. Therefore as a consequence, Playboy has become a mainstream brand which decorates pencil cases and erasers of young girls who know there is something naughty in the brand but are encouraged to buy into its cheeky marketable sexuality. The Girls of Playboy Mansion is accepted as family viewing, in which we aspire to be Holly, Bridget or Kendra www.natashawalter.com
- 24. Education, Feminism & Identity
- 25. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 26. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 27. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 28. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives None of the above
- 29. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 30. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 31. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder Groups include people participating in at least one of the activities monthly. Taken together, these groups make up the ecosystem that forms the groundswell. By examining how they are represented in any subgroup, strategists can determine which sorts of strategies make sense to reach their customers. Publish a blog Publish your own Web pages Upload video you created Upload audio/music you created Write articles or stories and post them Post ratings/reviews of products/services Comment on someone else’s blog Contribute to online forums Contribute to/edit articles in a wiki Use RSS feeds Add “tags” to Web pages or photos “ Vote” for Web sites online Maintain profile on a social networking site Visit social networking sites Read blogs Watch video from other users Listen to podcasts Read online forums Read customer ratings/reviews None of the above Creators Collectors Critics Joiners Spectators Inactives
- 32. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder %
- 33. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder
- 34. The Social Technographics ™ Ladder
- 35. Net Gen Source: Grown Up Digital 2009
- 41. Fear of loss
- 42. Maturity
- 44. Who will be tomorrows tourist? Flatters & Wilmott 2009
- 47. Source: Japan Travel Bureau
- 48. INSPERIENCE ECONOMY Ultimate Outdoor Theatre Source: Trend Hunter INSPERIENCE ECONOMY represents consumers' desire to bring top-level experiences into their domestic domain." Key words “ Creating comfortable space” “ Fully equipped” “ Not venturing out because we have it at home” “ The best” The Cal Spas Outdoor Theatre , at US $30,000 comes with 63-inch LCD HDTV touting surround sound, DVD/CD player… five-burner BBQ grill, a wet bar, weatherproof recliners with cup holders
- 50. The Rise of Mercurial Consumption
- 51. Simplicity Paul Flatters – Trajectory Group Research by the Trajectory Group (Flatters & Wilmott 2009) highlights that affluent consumers have revealed mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. Yeoman 2010
- 53. STORY INGREDIENTS Swiss Netgrannies equal story
- 54. In praise of slowness
- 55. Early Life: Growth and Development Adult Maintaining highest possible level of function Disability threshold Older Age Maintaining independence and Preventing disability Range of functions in individuals Age Functionality of capacity Rehabilitation and ensuring the quality of life Source: Yeoman 2010 Demography and life course
- 56. Trust, safety and supply
Notas del editor
- Drivers explained: What will the world look like in 2050? The key drivers are wealth , which is linked to demography and measured as GDP and wealth per capita; technology which manifests itself as the pace of change and resources which is shaped by climate change and the subsequent impact on landscapes, access to water and food..and nearly everything else. In addition this presentation concludes with a number of risks .
- Driver explained: The economy of the G20 (Dadash & Stancil 2010) is expected to grow at average annual rate of 3.5%, rising from US $ 160.0 trillion in 2050 in real dollar terms, over 60% of this US $121 trillion dollar expansion will come from six countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Mexico (BRICIM). US $ GDP in these six economies will grow at an average rate of 6% per year; their share of of G20 GDP will rise from 19.6 % in 2009 to 50.6% in 2050. By contrast, GDP in the G7 will grow by less than 2.1 % annually, and their share of G20 GDP will decline from 72.3 % to 40.5, In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the shift is even greater. Currently, the G7 claims more than half of G20 GDP compared to approximately one third in the BRICIM; in 2050, the BRICIM economies will be over twice as large as the G7. China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. $ GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined. In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per capita GDP will remain. The four largest countries in Europe are expected to grow by only 1.5 percent annually as Europe’s share of G20 GDP shrinks from 24 percent in 2009 to 10percent in 2050 After nearly a century as the world’s preeminent economic power, the United States is projected to relinquish this title to China in 2032. Fundamentally, economic power is shifting South and East. Alternatively, according to Dadash and Stancil (2010) a less favourable scenario is possible. This includes a breakout of trade protectionism—which will slow the diffusion of pre existing technologies into developing countries and reduce competitive innovation around the globe can be assumed to lower technical factor progress growth by 25 percent in advanced countries and 35 percent in developing economies. References: Dadash, U & Stancil, B (2010) The World order in 2050. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/The_World_Order_in_2050.pdf
- Driver explained: The economy of the G20 (Dadash & Stancil 2010) is expected to grow at average annual rate of 3.5%, rising from US $ 160.0 trillion in 2050 in real dollar terms, over 60% of this US $121 trillion dollar expansion will come from six countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Mexico (BRICIM). US $ GDP in these six economies will grow at an average rate of 6% per year; their share of of G20 GDP will rise from 19.6 % in 2009 to 50.6% in 2050. By contrast, GDP in the G7 will grow by less than 2.1 % annually, and their share of G20 GDP will decline from 72.3 % to 40.5, In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the shift is even greater. Currently, the G7 claims more than half of G20 GDP compared to approximately one third in the BRICIM; in 2050, the BRICIM economies will be over twice as large as the G7. China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. $ GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined. In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per capita GDP will remain. The four largest countries in Europe are expected to grow by only 1.5 percent annually as Europe’s share of G20 GDP shrinks from 24 percent in 2009 to 10percent in 2050 After nearly a century as the world’s preeminent economic power, the United States is projected to relinquish this title to China in 2032. Fundamentally, economic power is shifting South and East. Alternatively, according to Dadash and Stancil (2010) a less favourable scenario is possible. This includes a breakout of trade protectionism—which will slow the diffusion of pre existing technologies into developing countries and reduce competitive innovation around the globe can be assumed to lower technical factor progress growth by 25 percent in advanced countries and 35 percent in developing economies. References: Dadash, U & Stancil, B (2010) The World order in 2050. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/The_World_Order_in_2050.pdf
- Driver explained Demography is the study of population characteristics. Birth, death, migration and ageing are key topics incorporated within demography. According to the United Nations, in 2050 there will be 9.1 billion people in the world compared to 2.5 billion in 1950 (see table). From housing to water supply, this population increase will have major implications for everything and everyone. In response to the fiscal burden of an ageing population, many political leaders, including those of Japan and Italy, have tried to encourage people to have more babies, occasionally even offering monetary incentives. World population grew from 600 million in 1700 to 6.8 billion in 2009 (United Nations, 2009) In 2008, the global population will be 6.8 billion with 5.6 billion living in less developed regions (table 1.1). According to a scenario constructed by the United Nations (2009), by 2050 developing countries will account for 86% of the population. By 2050, the population of the 49 least developed nations will double from 835 million to 1.7 billion. However, between 2009 and 2050, the population of developed countries is projected to remain stable at close to 1.2 billion. The majority of the population is concentrated in only few countries. In 2009, 37% of people lived within India and China. Consequently, 76% of the 230 countries covered have populations of less than 20 million. By 2028, India will have a greater population than China and together they will house 36% of the population. A population ageing, whereby the proportion of older persons in the population increases over that of younger persons, will be the main effect of fertility decline especially when coupled with increases in life expectancy. In 1950, only 8% of the worlds population was aged over 60. In 2010 this will rise to 11% and by 2050 22% of the population will be over 60. Globally, this means over 2 billion people will be over 60 in 2050. In contrast, over the next 40 years, the number of young people aged below 15 will decline from 1.86 billion in 2010 to 1.8 billion in 2050. Thus, in 2050 only 20% of the population will be under the age of 15. By 2050, 88 countries are expected to have a median age above 40, 43 of which are located in the developing world. Therefore, population ageing, already prominent in developed nations, is expected to also occur rapidly in developing countries. However, least developed countries with high fertility rates will continue to have young populations into the future. In 2050, nine least developed countries including Nigeria and Somalia will have the youngest populations with medium ages below 25. References: UN (2009) Populations Statistics, accessed on the 10 th March 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpp/
- Driver explained Demography is the study of population characteristics. Birth, death, migration and ageing are key topics incorporated within demography. According to the United Nations, in 2050 there will be 9.1 billion people in the world compared to 2.5 billion in 1950 (see table). From housing to water supply, this population increase will have major implications for everything and everyone. In response to the fiscal burden of an ageing population, many political leaders, including those of Japan and Italy, have tried to encourage people to have more babies, occasionally even offering monetary incentives. World population grew from 600 million in 1700 to 6.8 billion in 2009 (United Nations, 2009) In 2008, the global population will be 6.8 billion with 5.6 billion living in less developed regions (table 1.1). According to a scenario constructed by the United Nations (2009), by 2050 developing countries will account for 86% of the population. By 2050, the population of the 49 least developed nations will double from 835 million to 1.7 billion. However, between 2009 and 2050, the population of developed countries is projected to remain stable at close to 1.2 billion. The majority of the population is concentrated in only few countries. In 2009, 37% of people lived within India and China. Consequently, 76% of the 230 countries covered have populations of less than 20 million. By 2028, India will have a greater population than China and together they will house 36% of the population. A population ageing, whereby the proportion of older persons in the population increases over that of younger persons, will be the main effect of fertility decline especially when coupled with increases in life expectancy. In 1950, only 8% of the worlds population was aged over 60. In 2010 this will rise to 11% and by 2050 22% of the population will be over 60. Globally, this means over 2 billion people will be over 60 in 2050. In contrast, over the next 40 years, the number of young people aged below 15 will decline from 1.86 billion in 2010 to 1.8 billion in 2050. Thus, in 2050 only 20% of the population will be under the age of 15. By 2050, 88 countries are expected to have a median age above 40, 43 of which are located in the developing world. Therefore, population ageing, already prominent in developed nations, is expected to also occur rapidly in developing countries. However, least developed countries with high fertility rates will continue to have young populations into the future. In 2050, nine least developed countries including Nigeria and Somalia will have the youngest populations with medium ages below 25. References: UN (2009) Populations Statistics, accessed on the 10 th March 2010 at http://esa.un.org/unpp/
- Driver explained: Moore's law (Yeoman 2010) describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware, in which the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two year. The law is the basis for the exponential technological enhancement across the world. With its power to send knowledge around the globe at lightning speed, information technology has vastly changed our world — unleashing the Internet along with a global economy of knowledge workers and even, some would say, sparking the fall of communism and the rise of terrorism. Computer power has increased exponentially since 1980, when machines less sophisticated than your mobile phone filled entire rooms. And we can expect similar mindboggling advances in the coming decades (Techcast 2010) Predictions include: 2012: Space Tourism. Richard Branson is steadily moving toward the first flight of his Virgin Galactic tourist spaceships , and competitors are rushing to realize their own plans for trips to the moon and to space hotels. Just a few years ago, the very idea of space tourism seemed laughable, but now it looks ready to launch. 2014: Intelligent Cars. Imagine calling your car and instructing it to pick you up at a precise location and then take you somewhere else, like a chauffeur. This car wouldn’t just drive itself; it would also navigate traffic, pay tolls, avoid collisions and park itself. Unfortunately, you’d still be the one to pay any speeding tickets. 2015: Telemedicine . Electronic medical records, video conferences with your doctor, computerized diagnoses and even telesurgery promise to improve health care and relieve us of all that maddening insurance paperwork. In 2001, surgeons guiding a robot remotely from an office in New York City removed the gall bladder of a woman in a French hospital. 2020: Thought Power. El ectronic skull caps can capture brain signals, which are then used to control computers and communicate with other people. One company has developed a computerized system called BrainGate that allows paralyzed people to use thoughts to control telephones, lights and other devices. Other systems allow people to type up to 15 words a minute simply by focusing on a computer cursor. 2022: Artificial Intelligence. Today’s computers can beat chess masters, chat with humans and guide robots, and many scientists believe that machines could one day replace people altogether. This automation of thought raises one of the most crucial questions of our time: Is there a fundamental difference between machine intelligence and human intelligence? On the other hand, could computers’ limitations force us to accept human consciousness as a distinct and powerful force governing life? 2022: Smart Robots; A Japanese robot named Asimo can climb stairs, run and dance. He and his kin are finding work as office receptionists, waiters and security guards. Faced with a dearth of young people and a growing elderly population, the Japanese and Koreans plan to have robots fill important roles in offices, home services and health care by 2010. 2050: The robots go on holiday as singularity has arrived References: Techcast (2010) What’s Next. Washington Post. Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/outlook/nextthings/ Yeoman, I (2010) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism, Chanelview Publications. Bristol.
- Driver explained: A report by PWC (2006) states that China could overtake the US economy by 2026 and be around 23% larger by 2025 and around 43% larger by 2043. The Indian economy could rise to more than half the size of the US economy by 2025 and around the same size by 2050. Brazil could be comparable to Germany by 2025 and Japan by 2050. Of course, there are considerable uncertainties around long term forecasts and these forecasts assume that the global economic environment remains broadly. However, the consequences of these forecasts have implications on global energy supply and thus carbon emission and climate change. Sharp rises in oil prices raise concerns about the security of supply in the Middle East and the emerging economies demand for energy. As the emerging economies of the world continue to grow they become more energy intensive and at the sametime emerging economies become more consumers intense. PWC proposes a range of scenarios for the future including: Baseline Scenario in which energy efficiency improves inline with the trends of past 25 years, with no change in fuel mix by country, whereas a Scorched Earth Scenario in which energy efficiency improvements are 1% per annum lower than in the baseline scenario, with no change in fuel mix. This scenario might be associated with major technological advances leading to significantly lower fossil fuel extraction costs and associated reductions in energy prices that destroy the economic incentives for energy efficiency improvements and substitution into non-fuels. Whatever scenario prevails, the climate change scenarios will have a big impact on tourism, and whether it is water, food or oil, the implications are endless (Yeoman 2010) References: Yeoman, I (2010) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism. Chanelview Publications, Bristol Hawksworth, J (2006) The World in 2050. Implications of Global Growth for Carbon Emissions and Climate Change. Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/pdf/world2050carbon.pdf
- Driver explained: Barring a nuclear or climate cataclysm, the central message of this brief— economic power will continue to shift to the South and East—is likely to prove robust even in the event of major unexpected shocks, such as wars and global depression. The troubled history of the twentieth century suggests that the advance of globalization and the spread of technology are extremely powerful forces that may be temporarily interrupted and even reversed, but not permanently stopped. Though the last forty years have been relatively calm compared to the previous forty (which included the Great Depression and the outbreak of World War II), they nevertheless saw the fall of the Berlin Wall, China’s explosion onto the world scene, and three major financial crises (the Debt Crisis of the 1980s, the Asian Financial Crisis, and the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–2009). While we cannot know what shocks await us over the next forty years, it is certain that some will occur. At least four classes of risk could introduce major discontinuities and undermine these projections, slowing (though not stopping) world economic growth and the convergence process in developing countries. Each is addressed briefly. Geopolitical Breakdown Even if major disputes over territory or regional influence are resolved peacefully, economic relations could be undermined by trade disputes, major economic crises, and differences over dealing with climate change and other issues related to the global commons. Because globalization and economic growth do not occur in a vacuum, maintaining the cohesion of the international community is crucial to its continuation. Financial Crisis and Depression The world economy’s near-death experience in 2009 should be enough to motivate countries to improve regulatory mechanisms and macroeconomic policies, particularly given the world’s deep financial integration and the rapidity with which the shock spread. Yet the ability of countries to turn the lessons of the Great Financial Crisis into effective reforms is suspect for multiple reasons, including the financial industry’s powerful vested interest against reform, ideological differences about the appropriate role of regulation, competitive pressures, the difficulties of internationally coordinated action, the complexity of modern financial markets, and weaknesses in the capacity of both domestic and international regulators. Protectionism A relapse into protectionism may represent the single most important risk to this forecast, since the projections are grounded in assumptions about technological catch-up and increased efficiency which depend crucially on open international markets. As emerging markets rise in importance but remain relatively low-wage economies—China is now both the world’s largest exporter and one of the most competitive low-wage economies—they will become too big to ignore, and pressures to protect against them will increase. Climate Change Climate change will hurt global growth through effects on health outcomes, agricultural yields, involuntary migration, and the destruction of infrastructure. As extreme climate events grow increasingly common and temperatures rise 2–3 degrees Celsius by 2099—the most likely climate change scenario—the equivalent of a 5 percent reduction in per capita consumption, now and forever, will hit the global economy, with reductions as high as 20 percent possible. Developing countries will bear the brunt of these negative effects, but developed countries will be hurt as well, especially if temperatures rise more than the expected 2–3 degrees Celsius. References: Dadash, U & Stancil, B (2010) The World order in 2050. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/The_World_Order_in_2050.pdf
- And let’s not forget back yards, front yards, pools, tree houses and other outdoor spaces: Cal Spas’ Ultimate Outdoor Theatre (http://www.calspas.com) is a complete home theatre system with an anti-fog, anti-glare 63-inch LCD HDTV touting surround sound, DVD/CD player, iPod Docking Station, Sirius Satellite Radio receiver and game console inputs. It also comes equipped with a five-burner BBQ grill, a wet bar, weatherproof recliners with cup holders and two fire pits. The whole system has been designed for protection from the external elements. Rumored price: USD 30,000.
- The Vatican is to start a low-cost airline offering pilgrims the chance to visit holy sites across the world. The airline made its inaugural flight in August 2007 with an itinerary that took pilgrims from Rome’s Fiumicino airport to France’s shrine of Lourdes; flights to other destinations including the shrine of Fatima in Portugal, the shrine of the Madonna of Guadalupe in Mexico and Santiago di Compostella in Spain may be offered in the future. Nice touch: aircraft interiors feature sacred inscriptions. Flights will be operated by small Italian airline Mistral Air (http://www.mistralair.it), whose main base is Rome Ciampino Airport. The Vatican hopes more than 150,000 people per year will board one of Mistral Air’s planes. Picture courtesy of EPA. And so on. We’ll add a few more FOREVER TRENDS in one of the updates of this report, probably ‘KIDS KA-CHING’ and an update on BOOMING BUSINESS, but most of this is or should be on your radar anyway! * For specific tips on how to apply FOREVER TRENDS to your business, please visit the Report Tips section at http://www.trendwatching.com/trendreport/extras*
- Craft and real human beings make for instant stories to. Get inspired by: Swiss Netgranny (http://netgranny.ch) is a collective of 15 grannies recruited by Swiss fashion label Tarzan (http://www.tarzan.ch). The grannies knit socks on demand and sell them online. Customers can choose their favorite granny by picture, pick the color of their socks, or opt for a granny ‘surprise’ design. It will take a granny approximately two weeks to knit a pair of socks, which costs EUR 26, delivery included. Danish Mormor.nu (http://www.mormor.nu) sells traditional handmade baby and children's wear online (Mormor.nu is Danish for 'Grandma.now'). All products are handmade, from pure wool, alpaca wool or cotton. Old knitting and crochet techniques and patterns have been revived, and colors and materials updated, making the products meet modern demands for fashionable children's clothing, as well as for old-fashioned quality and honest materials. In fact, the company's employees stem from an era when everything was made by hand, the youngest employee being 68 years old. Cool little touch: clothes come with a small nametag signed by the grandmother that made the item.
- So it seems that people are generally welcoming of the growing intensity of their lives, but they are also beginning to search new oases of time and space to complement (but not replace) their hectic hours. There's a growing perception, both from consumers and business alike, that downtime can actually be beneficial. Several organisations have already started to tap into this need for time-oasis with, for example, a vast array of new holiday formats emerging (such as rural retreats, remote beach getaways, spa resorts etc). The Japanese-style Yotel in London’s Gatwick Airport offers luxurious and stylish cabins for rent for travellers with very early departures or who might have a long layover between flights or are delayed for hours. Four hours in a standard cabin costs a very affordable £25 ( £40 for a premium cabin). Here you can snooze the hours away comfortably and in style. A similar concept is found in the Vancouver Airport and New York’s Empire State Building where MetroNaps operates an urban catnapping business. For $14 you can treat yourself to 20 minutes in their very futuristic (luxurious) looking sleep pods. Meanwhile, the slow travel movement emerges out of eco-ethical concerns but springs from the trend known as authenti-seeking (see nVision report of the same name). The challenge to consumerism posed by global warming could make the slow travel revolution a very real phenomenon. People will not be able to jet off everywhere so they will have to become more patient and welcoming of less plugged-in, less always-on-the-go lifestyles. The slow travel phenomenon takes this into account – it advocates train journeys across Europe and local excursions. The slow travel, slow design, slow food developments are all about having fun and active experiences but here the emphasis is on taking a step back, having a more authentic moment and savouring time. This represents a very obvious opportunity to marketers. The future of luxury as time is already with us. Luxury’s Fourth Dimension has arrived.