Se ha denunciado esta presentación.
Utilizamos tu perfil de LinkedIn y tus datos de actividad para personalizar los anuncios y mostrarte publicidad más relevante. Puedes cambiar tus preferencias de publicidad en cualquier momento.
Cognitive Biases in Public Participation
Processes
Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS
teuscher-counseling.c...
Public Sector and Non-Profit
Alaska Federal & State Judges
Atkinson School of Management
American Arbitration Association
...
Understanding how cognitive biases influence
participant opinion in your public process
Tools you can use to help those pa...
Agenda
● Cognitive conflict awareness
● Cognitive bias overview and exercises
● Solutions
Decision Making and Emotion
“Cognitive Conflict” = Importance x Uncertainty
Examples:
1. High Importance and High Uncertai...
Navigating Psychological Traps
The $20 Auction:
1. Bidding starts at $1 and proceeds in $1 increments.
And, yes, this is f...
C) Concession Aversion:
People perceive equal trades as unequal:
● Losses are overvalued
● Gains are undervalued
● Equal t...
D) Construal Biases:
People think others hold more extreme views than they do in a partisan
situation
E) Fairness as a Decision-Making Criterion:
People reject deals that leave them better off than no deal if they perceive t...
F) Fundamental Attribution Error:
We react to situations while others act in accordance with immutable character
traits.
i...
G) The Availability Bias:
Tendency to focus on information that is more readily available to us.
People overestimate cause...
The Ladder of Inference
7. We are mystified and frustrated by their position
6. We are confronted with the opposing view
5...
Quickly read the colors of the inks:
RED
ORANGE
YELLOW
GREEN
BLUE
PURPLE
Again, read the colors of the inks:
RED
ORANGE
YELLOW
GREEN
BLUE
PURPLE
I) Automatic Cognitive Processes:
Control us more ...
J) Sunk Costs Trap
We tend to favor alternatives which we have incurred substantial costs for
Even though these costs were...
Pop Quiz: First Question
● If you choose to exit now through Door 1, you get an envelope
with $200.
● If you choose Door 2...
Second Question
● The doors are now locked. If you go out Door 1, you will be
required to pay $200.
● If you choose Door 2...
L. Loss Aversion:
People often fear losses more than they value gains even when the amounts
(expected utilities) are the s...
The Punch Lines
● Smart people make systematic decision making
mistakes on a regular basis
o Effects many managerial and e...
Example
“TheCatChasedTheDog”
is easier to understand
and remember than
“daCCaDeteghhhosTeT”
Mentally Evaluating Simultaneous
Considerations is Challenging:
“What day follows the day before yesterday
if two days fro...
Instead, Divide and Conquer
What day is two days before Sunday?
Easy! Friday
If today is Friday, what day was the day befo...
This list is difficult to process and
remember:
CARROT, LAWYER, PLANE, SPEAR, TRUCK,
PEAS, KNIFE, SAILOR, PISTOL, BROCCOLI...
The following list is easier to
process and remember:
CARROT, BROCCOLI, CORN, PEAS,
KNIFE, PISTOL, SPEAR, SWORD,
TRUCK, CA...
We Understand Differently When
We Arrange Attributes Differently
SKYSCRAPER, TEMPLE, CATHEDRAL, PRAYER
suggests the catego...
Solution: Attribute Re-framing
We are afraid of noise, pollution,
inconvenience, reduced overall quality of life,
higher t...
Solution: Attribute Re-framing
Better:
Calm, cleanliness, convenience, quality of
life, investment
Crum, A. J., Salovey, P...
Solution: Priority Checklist
Well Structured Set of Priorities:
❏ Fundamental (not instrumental)
❏ Positive
❏ Non-redundan...
Solution: Decision Tables
Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3 Criterion …
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Option …
Solution: Decision Tables
25% 40% 15% 20%
Benefit for
Local
Business
Expense
Neighborhood
Aesthetics
Parking
Pedestrian
Zo...
Solution: Decision Tables
25% 40% 15% 20%
Benefit for
Local
Business
Expense
Neighborhood
Aesthetics
Parking
Pedestrian
Zo...
Solution: Decision Tables
25% 40% 15% 20%
Benefit for
Local
Business
Expense
Neighborhood
Aesthetics
Parking
Pedestrian
Zo...
Solution: Decision Tables
25% 40% 15% 20%
Benefit
for Local
Business
Expens
e
Neighborhood
Aesthetics
Parking
Pedestrian
Z...
Solution: Decision Tables
A) Provides external memory
B) Compares alternatives systematically
C) Focuses on outcomes and f...
Solution: Decision Trees
No Pedestrian Zone
(No Change)
+ $125,000 for Local
Business
75%
25%
Pedestrian
Zone (New)
- $300...
Solution: Structuring Uncertainty w/
Multiple Criteria
Solution: Decision Trees
Solution: Education
Someone takes a strident stand
Poster child for cognitive biases
How do you confront this and save fac...
Thank you
teuscher-counseling.com workforceuniverse.commediate.com/icm/
Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS
Próxima SlideShare
Cargando en…5
×

Cognitive biases and group decision making, pi works 2014

1.011 visualizaciones

Publicado el

2014 PI Works! Cognitive Biases by Dan Hahn MS

Publicado en: Educación
  • Sé el primero en comentar

  • Sé el primero en recomendar esto

Cognitive biases and group decision making, pi works 2014

  1. 1. Cognitive Biases in Public Participation Processes Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS teuscher-counseling.com workforceuniverse.commediate.com/icm/
  2. 2. Public Sector and Non-Profit Alaska Federal & State Judges Atkinson School of Management American Arbitration Association Bonneville Power Administration Beaverton, Hillsboro, Portland, Salem & Tigard Schools Cities of Bend, Damascus, Fairview, Lake Oswego, Sherwood, Tallahassee (FL), Tigard, Troutdale, and Wood Village Central Oregon Community College Clean Water Services Counties of Clackamas, Multnomah, & Washington Executive Officers Club Federal Court Clerks Association Hillsboro Chamber of Commerce Idaho Federal & State Judges Institute of Internal Auditors and Institute for Professional in Taxation Johns Landing Chamber of Commerce Long Term Care Ombudsman Office Metro Fire Officer Academy Clackamas, Marion and Washington Counties National Association of Securities Dealers (FINRA) National Association Regulatory Attys. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals Oregon Court of Appeals Oregon DAS, DEQ, DLCD, DOT, DOJ, EMPL, Lands, PUC, WCB & WCD Oregon Executive MBA Program Oregon Health Science University OR, MT & ID State Bar Associations Representative Clients Private Sector Abercrombie & Fitch Advanced Data Concepts Bristol-Meyer Squibb California Canned Peach Growers Chevron Counselors of Real Estate Dow Corning EdPlus Holdings EDS Corporation Footwise Fred Meyer, Inc. Fujitsu America GE Capital Heery International Hydaburg Fisheries & Tribe InFocus Systems, Inc. One Block Off The Grid Statement of Rates Portland Community College Providence Hospitals, Olympia & Portland Sacred Heart Medical Center Swedish Medical Center Universities of Idaho, Oregon and Washington Unitus U.S. Bankruptcy/District Courts: Southern District of New York, Western District of Pennsylvania, California & Oregon U.S. Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Immigration & Naturalization Service, U.S. Forest Service, & U.S. Soil Conservation Service Western Conference of Workers Comp Insurers Washington Assoc. of Medical Staff Services VA Medical Councils: NY, OR-WA, LA WA and OR State Bar Associations WA, OR, MT, and ID Mediation Associations NW Natural Portland General Electric Portland Metropolitan Area Realtors Professional Profunds Liability Fund Safeway, Inc. State Accident Insurance Fund Seminar Group Shell Oil Standard Insurance Company State Farm Virginia Mason Medical Centers Waggener Edstrom Women Entrepreneurs of Oregon Xerox
  3. 3. Understanding how cognitive biases influence participant opinion in your public process Tools you can use to help those participants: ● Recognize their impact ● Re-think their points of view ● Provide balanced recommendations Workshop Goal
  4. 4. Agenda ● Cognitive conflict awareness ● Cognitive bias overview and exercises ● Solutions
  5. 5. Decision Making and Emotion “Cognitive Conflict” = Importance x Uncertainty Examples: 1. High Importance and High Uncertainty 2. High Importance and Low Uncertainty 3. Low Importance and High Uncertainty 4. Low Importance and Low Uncertainty Too much cognitive conflict creates PANIC Too little creates APATHY Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. Decision Making: A psychological analysis of conflict. NY: Free Press. Berlyne, D. E. Structure and Direction in Thinking. NY: Wiley
  6. 6. Navigating Psychological Traps The $20 Auction: 1. Bidding starts at $1 and proceeds in $1 increments. And, yes, this is for real money! 1. No jump bidding. 2. Fair warning before the auction ends. 3. No communication, verbal or nonverbal, is allowed. 4. Highest bidder pays what they bid and gets $20. 5. Second highest pays what they bid. A) Competitive Arousal (Rivalry), Spotlight, & Time Pressures Avoid Them!
  7. 7. C) Concession Aversion: People perceive equal trades as unequal: ● Losses are overvalued ● Gains are undervalued ● Equal trades are difficult to make I used to have an apple... I used to have an orange...
  8. 8. D) Construal Biases: People think others hold more extreme views than they do in a partisan situation
  9. 9. E) Fairness as a Decision-Making Criterion: People reject deals that leave them better off than no deal if they perceive that their norms of fairness are being violated in accepting the deal.
  10. 10. F) Fundamental Attribution Error: We react to situations while others act in accordance with immutable character traits. i.e. - We attribute good motivations to ourselves and bad to others. That train derailment made me late! You’re late because you’re lazy!
  11. 11. G) The Availability Bias: Tendency to focus on information that is more readily available to us. People overestimate causes of death that make the news (airplane vs car crashes, cancer vs asthma).
  12. 12. The Ladder of Inference 7. We are mystified and frustrated by their position 6. We are confronted with the opposing view 5. We take action based on that belief 4. We then make the assumption that the only logical conclusion is that we are right and they are wrong 3. We subconsciously select the data that supports are preconceived position 2. We don’t appreciate we are only capable of processing some of it 1. We start with a large pool of available data Adapted from Peter Senge H) Confirmation Bias: The undermining of data that is inconsistent with our pre-existing mindset; thus “overvaluing” our position
  13. 13. Quickly read the colors of the inks: RED ORANGE YELLOW GREEN BLUE PURPLE
  14. 14. Again, read the colors of the inks: RED ORANGE YELLOW GREEN BLUE PURPLE I) Automatic Cognitive Processes: Control us more than we want to admit
  15. 15. J) Sunk Costs Trap We tend to favor alternatives which we have incurred substantial costs for Even though these costs were incurred in the past and usually unrecoverable Previous investment should not be considered when evaluating new alternatives
  16. 16. Pop Quiz: First Question ● If you choose to exit now through Door 1, you get an envelope with $200. ● If you choose Door 2, you get a sealed envelope randomly pulled from a bag. ● 20% of the envelopes contain $1,000 and 80% are empty. ● Which do you choose?
  17. 17. Second Question ● The doors are now locked. If you go out Door 1, you will be required to pay $200. ● If you choose Door 2, you get a sealed envelope randomly pulled from a bag. ● 20% of the time you will be required to pay $1,000. 80% of the time you leave for free. ● Which do you choose?
  18. 18. L. Loss Aversion: People often fear losses more than they value gains even when the amounts (expected utilities) are the same! Door 2 Door 1 $200 20% 80% $1,000 $0 20% * $1,000 = $200 80% * $0 = $0 + = $200 = $200
  19. 19. The Punch Lines ● Smart people make systematic decision making mistakes on a regular basis o Effects many managerial and executive decisions Why? Automatic cognitive processes are habit-bound. We are each so darn human!
  20. 20. Example “TheCatChasedTheDog” is easier to understand and remember than “daCCaDeteghhhosTeT”
  21. 21. Mentally Evaluating Simultaneous Considerations is Challenging: “What day follows the day before yesterday if two days from now will be Sunday?”
  22. 22. Instead, Divide and Conquer What day is two days before Sunday? Easy! Friday If today is Friday, what day was the day before yesterday? Easy! Wednesday If today is Wednesday, what day is tomorrow? Easy! Thursday
  23. 23. This list is difficult to process and remember: CARROT, LAWYER, PLANE, SPEAR, TRUCK, PEAS, KNIFE, SAILOR, PISTOL, BROCCOLI, DOCTOR, BOAT, SWORD, CAR, CORN, PLUMBER, Bousefield, W. A. (1953). The occurrence of clustering in the recall of randomly arranged associates. Journal of General Psychology, 49, 229-240.
  24. 24. The following list is easier to process and remember: CARROT, BROCCOLI, CORN, PEAS, KNIFE, PISTOL, SPEAR, SWORD, TRUCK, CAR, BOAT, PLANE, DOCTOR, LAWYER, PLUMBER, SAILOR We understand better when we organize attributes into groups Cofer, C. N. (1951). Verbal behavior in relation to reasoning and values. In H. Guetzkow (Ed.), Groups, Leadership, and Men. Pittsburgh: Carnegie Institute for Conflict Press.
  25. 25. We Understand Differently When We Arrange Attributes Differently SKYSCRAPER, TEMPLE, CATHEDRAL, PRAYER suggests the category “buildings”, and PRAYER seems not to belong. PRAYER, TEMPLE, CATHEDRAL, SKYSCRAPER suggests the category “religion”, and SKYSCAPPER seems not to belong.
  26. 26. Solution: Attribute Re-framing We are afraid of noise, pollution, inconvenience, reduced overall quality of life, higher taxes
  27. 27. Solution: Attribute Re-framing Better: Calm, cleanliness, convenience, quality of life, investment Crum, A. J., Salovey, P., & Achor, S. (2013). Rethinking stress: The role of mindsets in determining the stress response. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 104(4), 716–733. Achor, S. (2013). Before Happiness: Five Actionable Strategies to Create a Positive Path to Success. Random House.
  28. 28. Solution: Priority Checklist Well Structured Set of Priorities: ❏ Fundamental (not instrumental) ❏ Positive ❏ Non-redundant ❏ Objective/quantifiable ❏ Meaningful ❏ Complete ❏ Relevant ❏ Independent
  29. 29. Solution: Decision Tables Criterion 1 Criterion 2 Criterion 3 Criterion … Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option …
  30. 30. Solution: Decision Tables 25% 40% 15% 20% Benefit for Local Business Expense Neighborhood Aesthetics Parking Pedestrian Zone Bike Paths Weekend Closures No Change
  31. 31. Solution: Decision Tables 25% 40% 15% 20% Benefit for Local Business Expense Neighborhood Aesthetics Parking Pedestrian Zone High Moderate Excellent Poor Bike Paths Moderate High No Change Moderate Weekend Closures Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate No Change None Low Unchanged Unchange
  32. 32. Solution: Decision Tables 25% 40% 15% 20% Benefit for Local Business Expense Neighborhood Aesthetics Parking Pedestrian Zone High Moderate Excellent Poor Bike Paths Moderate High No Change Moderate Weekend Closures Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate No Change None Low Unchanged Unchange
  33. 33. Solution: Decision Tables 25% 40% 15% 20% Benefit for Local Business Expens e Neighborhood Aesthetics Parking Pedestrian Zone 10 5 10 3 6.6 Bike Paths 5 1 4 5 3.25 Weekend Closures 5 5 6 4 4.95 No Change 3 9 5 5 6.1
  34. 34. Solution: Decision Tables A) Provides external memory B) Compares alternatives systematically C) Focuses on outcomes and facts D) Analyzes outcomes by attributes/criteria E) Arranges attributes/criteria into weighted groups
  35. 35. Solution: Decision Trees No Pedestrian Zone (No Change) + $125,000 for Local Business 75% 25% Pedestrian Zone (New) - $300,000 on Local Business No Change $18,750 Expected Utility $0 75% * $125,000 + 25% * - $300,000
  36. 36. Solution: Structuring Uncertainty w/ Multiple Criteria
  37. 37. Solution: Decision Trees
  38. 38. Solution: Education Someone takes a strident stand Poster child for cognitive biases How do you confront this and save face? Normalize the reaction: “I’m not surprised to see polarized views…”
  39. 39. Thank you teuscher-counseling.com workforceuniverse.commediate.com/icm/ Ursina Teuscher, PhDSam Imperati, JD Dan Hahn, MS

×