1. STRATEGIC MASS KILLINGS Bersini Diego Bodini Diego Fiocchetti Francesco Pugnetti Anna Università degli Studi di Parma Facoltà di Economia International Business and Development 13.04.2011

3. DEFINITION OF MASS KILLINGS “ Mass Killings are the killings of substantial numbers of human beings, when not in the course of military actions against the military forces of an avowed enemy, under the conditions of the essential defenselessness and helplessness of the victims”

5. MODEL OF CIVIL WAR AND MASS KILLINGS

6. STAGES OF THE MODEL STAGE ONE Two groups ( i,j ) of population size (Ni,Nj); If group j is in power, group i will decide at the first stage; STAGE TWO The two groups select fighting efforts (D i ,D j ) STAGE THREE The victorious group sets rent-share of loosing group to minimum and decides on mass killings (if the group doesn't rebel...)

7. STEPS OF THE MODEL Population Size Output produced by labor Individual productivity determined by education and technology TOTAL OUTPUT

8. GOVERNMENT REVENUE Government revenue State's capacity * Output = Government taxes output at the rate t Exploitation/Exports of natural resources Individual productivity determined by education and technology

9. At the 3° stage, considering the “initial disposable income”, the victorious group decides the amount of mass killings and the share of government revenue. Numbers of members of the group to eliminate

11. DETERMINATIONS OF MASS KILLINGS The winner has to select to maximize the future period playoff, assuming that: The maximum level of mass killings beyond which the international community would intervene and stop killings.

12. DIFFERENCESE BETWEEN AND 1. = based on the humanitarian objective of sparing the lives of non- combatant civilians; = politically motivated; 2 . = stopping the mass killings is done by military intervention (agreement of the international community); = the pressures for democratization are performed through international agencies (WB, IMF) 3. = the threat of international military intervention is activated while the armed conflict takes place; 4. = part of the post-conflict peace agreements;

13. Assuming E = 0 the highest payoff is obtained with no mass killings = 0 higher is Lambda it forces to give more resources to the defeated group With E=0 a decrease in N due to mass killings will cause a proportional decrease of the overall output

15. 3 – Natural Resources When a country becomes more resource rich government revenue is less dependent of the productive activity of its population. Higher E higher aggregate warfare effort conflict and mass killings This analysis seems to belong the same results of the empirical literature 4 – Limits to exploitation Higher “Lambda” tighter pressure for a fair tratement of the loosers. While a moderate pressure for fairness may be beneficial, a tight pressure may precipitate mass killings. In a NON democratic country had been in peace and is induced to commit democratization, the model predicts that the government could murder part of the opponent before starting the democratization process.

18. Table 1: COUNTRY LEVEL EVIDENCE – EMPIRICAL RESULTS

21. Table 3: ETHNIC GROUP LEVEL EVIDENCE [MODEL ANALYSIS]