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On Swedish Energy Scenarios | Per Lundqvist
1. On Swedish Energy Scenarios
Experiences, Methodologies, Reflections and some new ideas
Per Lundqvist, Professor, KTH, Stockholm
2. Scope of presentation
• Energy scenario 2020+ An on-going project (selecting
methodologies, identifying key issues)
• Swedish Energy Scenarios – 1970 to 2014 (overview)
• Brief comment on scenario methodologies
• Identified key elements of the 2020+ Scenario
• Scenario Classification and characterization (what makes
a scenario successful?)
• New concepts: Negotiated modelling and Negotiated
Simulation
• Six case studies for Sweden + Scotland in the M.Sc.
Course Energy, Models and scenarios spring 2014.
3. Creating an energy system scenario is:
• A system modelling process – the process needs
skilled and open minded governance!
• A method to investigate todays system as well
• An opportunity to share experiences
• A learning opportunity
• An opportunity to argue from different viewpoints
• Always cross-disciplinary – seek broad competence
and respect each others disciplines!
“…Plans are nothing – planning is everything…”
[Dwight D. Eisenhower]
4. An ongoing project within Swedish Energy
Agency (aiming at issues after 2020…)
The aim of the 2020+ scenario project is to:
• Identify critical competence gaps in the organization,
• Improve organizations own capability to perform long range
scenarios in parallel with the short term prognosis duties,
• Harmonize the view on sustainability issues and trade-offs
(what does ”A sustainable energy system” mean – really?)
• Enhance future ”buyers competence” for scenario studies (for
years done for the agency by external consultants or
researchers)
Likely initially unintended outcomes:
• Identify critical research needs – allocate funding
• Support Swedish government in policy making + ????
5. Scenario
LimitstoGrowth
Energikommissionen-
Energihushållning
SolellerUran?
År 1971 1972 1973 1974 1977 1978
Worlds View
factors
Arbetsgruppunder
ledningavstatsrådet
AlvaMyrdaltillsattes
FN:sförsta
internationella
klimatkonferensi
Stockholm
Oljekris&
Sekretariatetför
Framtidsstudier
bildades
InternationalEnergy
Agency(IEA)bildades
Oljekris
Känrkraftsolyckai
ThreeMileIsland
Scenario
Kaijseretal.-Att
ändrariktning:villkor
förnyenergiteknik
År 1980 1986 1987 1988
World view
Factors
Folkomröstningom
kärnkraft
Kärnkraftsolyckai
Tjernobyl
Bruntland-
kommissionens
rapportpubliceras
InternationalPanel
onClimateChange
(IPCC)bildades
Ongoing mapping of influential scenarios
7. What will happen? What can happen? What should
be done to
make it happen?
”what If”
”Prognosis”
strategic
scenarios
Preserving
scenarios
Transforming
(back-
casting)
External
scenarios
Predictive S Explorarative S Normative S
Scenarios
8. Process scheme for the study 2020+
1. Identifying
critical parts of
the system
• Issues
• Stakeholders
• Conflicts
• Definitions
(lack)
• Knowledge
gaps
Setting up next
stage: adaption
2. Methodo-
logical issues
• Back
casting?
• Strategic
scenarios
• What - if?
Setting up next
stage: adaption
3. Negotiated
modelling:
• Choice of
modelling
software
• Project team
• Reference
group
• stakeholders
4. Negotiated
simulation:
• Scenario
communi-
cation
• Stakeholder
interaction
9. Identified critical elements 2020+ for Sweden
1) How can energy use be minimized in various sectors (housing, industry,
transport)? From lifestyle changes to new efficient technologies. Rebound
effects?
2) How can energy supply in the transport/mobility sector be transformed
to biofuels or electricity?
3) How can integrated infrastructure and better planning contribute to
lower energy use in the transport sector?
4) What are the alternatives for heating systems in buildings? (District
Heating, Heat Pumps, Solar Energy etc.)
5) How does increased energy efficiency of buildings relate to social
sustainability and preserved cultural values during renovation and
refurbishment`?
6) How can a gradually diminishing heating demand be utilized?
7) What are the perspectives on waste incineration and biogas production
in a future sustainable energy system with more recycling?
10. Identifying critical scenario elements 2
8) What are the alternatives to fossil fuels in the industrial sector (Steel for example,
CCS, CCU)?
9) What different views are there on the sustainability of an massive outtake of
bioenergy/biofuels? I.e. the role of biofuels in a future energy system? Export of
bioenergy?
10) Which different views are there on the best production chains and
technologies for the utilization of bioenergy?
11) What views are there on how to best utilize a finite biomass resource (energy,
food, plastics, building material)?
12) What is the role of “traditional” power sources in the future energy system
(nuclear energy, hydropower, etc.?)
13) How should the electric power system be adapted to handle more renewable
electricity? Extended transmission capacity? More regulative power? Storage? User
flexibility? Dynamic Pricing (i.e. Smart Grid)
14) What are the sustainability perspectives on a future large scale electricity
export from Sweden? (cables?)
15) In what way must the Swedish energy system adapt to climate change?
Increased cooling demand? Hydropower output and security? Increased biomass
growth rates?
11. Early factors that influence scenario success
Aim(s)
Target
group
Authors
triggers
World Wiew
Descition
makers
Timing
Initiator
Overarching
goal
This is part of a on-going
thesis project (part of 2020+)
to charcterize and map
energy scenarios
(work in progress…)
12. The scenario making process is
dependendant on aim(s) and authors
Aim(s)
Type of
scenario
Architecture
Method
Presentation
Target group
AuthorsDescition
makers
13. Communicating the scenario determines
success
Architecture
Method
Presentation
Target
group
Other
recievers
Success
Success
factors
14. Giving the entire map (model)
Aim(s)
Type of
scenario
Architecture
Method
Presentation
Target
group
Other
recievers
Success
Success
factors
Authors
Triggers
World View
Decision
makers
Timing
Initiator
Overarching
goal
15. New ideas (scenarios as learning process)
Two relatively new concepts are proposed (potentially in a two step
process):
• Negotiated modelling
• Negotiated Simulation (sometimes referred to as mediated
simulation)
Negotiated modelling takes in the stakeholders in the modelling
process from the beginning. What matters? What to include? System
boundaries? Technologies to include? Etc.
Negotiated Simulation allows for interaction for target setting, choice
of technologies, cross-sectorial trade-offs. Stakeholders cannot
change the model but need to understand and accept it
Some stakeholders may take part in step 1 or 2 only.
18. Sector Parameter Indicators
Primary Energy National mix
Renewable energy share
Biogas (Y/N)
KWh
KW (Installed cap)
Buildings Types
Residential
(3 types)
Commercial
(Offices, Shopping malls)
Community
(Schools, sports, hospital)
Area (sq. m.)
Percentage
Transport Modes
Cars
Car sharing
Bus/tram
Bikes
Km/liter/day
Percentage share
Fuel types
Kg CO2/km
Waste Types
Burnable
Organic
Recyclable
Landfill
Hazardous
Waste production per
cap.
Percentage share
Water Hot water
Drinking water
General use water
Liters/day/cap.
Hot water requirement
Policies Building regulations
1 star
2 star
3 star
Users Types
Environmentally aware
Moderate
High consumption
InputParameters
19.
20.
21. Six comparative case studies
”Topic” Sweden Scotland
1. What if we have:
Heat Pumps with
smart grid
capability
How can smart heat
pumps in Single
family dwellings
contribute to balance
fluctuating electricity
production
Can heat pumps in
district heating nets
increase potential for
renewable electricity
(IPRE)
2. What if we have:
Massive expansion
of Electric cars
How should an
electricity supplier
work to utilize a big
electric car fleet
How can electric
Car-Pools stabilize
the grid and IPRE
3. What if we have:
Prosumers in the
future energy
system
How can prosumers
fit in the future Swe.
energy system?
How can prosumers
fit in the future Sco.
energy system?
Strategic scenarios (business development focus) in a ”what-if” prognosis context
22. Thank you for the attention!
Qestions?
Per Lundqvist
perlund@kth.se
www.energy.kth.se
070 636 33 00
