Online learning trends. Global. About ICDE, International Council for Open and Distance Education. The Big Picture. Online and distance education is steadily increasing all over the world.The growth in higher education is massive. The change is dramatic. MOOCs are peaking. Numbers of MOOCs. Innovation in Education. Example from US online 2014. Example from ECAR 2013. Analysis of driving forces. Analysis of Opportunities. The small text, which you should read.

1. Global trends in distance and online
education: threats and
opportunities for providers
Pretoria, 7 February 2014
Gard Titlestad
Secretary General
International Council For Open and
Distance Education, ICDE

2. • The leading global membership organization for open, distance and online
education
• An NGO official partner of UNESCO, and shares that agency’s key aim – the
attainment of quality education for all
• ICDE believes that in pursuing education as a universal right, the needs of the
learner must be central.
• Members in all regions of the world
25 Years Support
From Norway

3. The
picture

4. The BIG Picture
• Online and distance education is steadily
increasing all over the world
India
Russia
Africa
South America
Sweden
The US
Australia
China

5. The BIG picture
• The growth in higher education is massive

6. 400
Mill. students
2007 - 2030
EU/OECD projections
the need for HE
by 2030: 400 mill.
320
2030
2044

7. The BIG picture
• The changes in higher education is dramatic

8. The BIG picture
• MOOC took the world (?) with storm, peaked, and
opened up for massive innovation in education

9. Wie bieden ze aan?
Where?
Numbers per February 2014
Coursera ”Learning Hubs”

10. Numbers per February 2014
http://openeducationeuropa.eu/en/european_scoreboard_moocs

11. The BIG picture
• Online, Distance (ODL) and on Campus Learning
are converging => Blended
ODL
Blended
Campus
• And as a result – an even more diverse higher
education landscape……

12. The BIG picture
• Three streams work in parallel:
– Online becomes mature – and Internet/mobile:
freedom from distance, mobile broadband:
freedom from location
– New methodologies, content and pedagogy – new
opportunities for student supportive teaching
– New knowledge about the brain and learning, new
knowledge in neurosciences

13. The BIG picture
• We are in the beginning (of the beginning) –
example: mobile technology

14. We are in the beginning of the
beginning
State of Broadband Report 2013 www.broadbandcommission.org

15. We are in the
beginning of the
beginning
African Undersea
Cables
nov. 2013
http://manypossibilities.net/african-undersea-cables/

16. And meet the challenges:

17. The Governments moves…..

18. IT application strategy
The Chinese government has put forward the
following strategies
Industrial moderniza on
Industrializa on
IT applica on
Agricultural moderniza on
IT applica on(digi za on)
Na onal defense moderniza on
Urbaniza on
na onal development
Sci-tech moderniza on
Agricultural moderniza on
strategy
original“ four moderniza ons”
new“ four moderniza ons”
Ref. Yang Zhijian, president Open
University of China, ICDE world
Conference, Tianjin, Kina 2013
(digi za on) is a

19. “Cloud-based” technology support model
（Open, shared, quality and massive education resources
and e-learning software （
Platform Services
（Portal, CAS, Teaching, Managing, Support service, Research, etc.（
Infrastructure Services
（IDC, Computing and storage pools, high-speed network （
VPN
Internet
ISMS (Information security
management system)
IOMS (IT Operations
Management system)
Cloud
Software & Education resource Services
Mobile Internet
…
…
Networks
Satellite Network
…
…
……
Terminals
OUC Pad Cloud Desktop Cloud TV
Cloud Phone Cloud Classroom

20. The CONCRETE example

21. January 2014

28. 2013 (ECAR)

29. Who take MOOC ?
2013 (ECAR)

30. MOOC or MOC
Are MOOCs Really Open? MOOC or MOC?
No, all rights reserved.
Partial, CC BY-NC on some
No, non-OER license.
Yes, CC BY or CC BY-SA
No, all rights reserved.
Note: some institutions using CC anyway.
Most MOOCs are open only in the sense of free enrollment.
Paul Stacey, Associate Director of Global Learning, Creative Commons, Oktober 2013

31. The
BIG
trends

32. Trends,
within
the framwork of globalisation
and internationalisation
US quadruppling
Cost
Southern Europe….
Developing economies
Automation
Robots
Sensors
Technology
2020 – 80% connected
Open Research
Internet of things
Open Data
OER
eScience
eInfrrastructures
Access
Open Innovation
Flexibility
HE needs – 1 U a week
Globalisation
Societal needs
Enabling economic growth
Demographics
Open Access
Open
knowledge
Students needs
and
expectations
Employability
Lifelong
ICT Habitus

33. The
BIG
change?

34. The Future of Employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
About 47 per cent of total US employment is at risk.
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/publications/view/1314
Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish
Employment
http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/rifbriefs/22.htm
37% of Danish jobs classified with high
probability for being phased out
http://www.kraka.org/artikler/computere_og_udskiftning_af_jobfunktioner
Technology and jobs; Coming to an office near you
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21594298-effect-todays-technology-tomorrows-jobs-will-be-immenseand-no-country-ready
The future of jobs; The onrushing wave
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

35. The
BIGGER
opportunities

36. ”For the first time in human history we
have the tools to enable everyone to
attain all the education they desire.”
(Wiley, Green, & Soares, 2012)
Dramatically bringing down the cost of education with
OER: How open education resources unlock the door
to free learning.

37. The next years
• Open, distance, online and eLearning – enables:
•
•
•
•
Equal, easy and affordable access
Quality Higher education
Better learning outcome
Student success
• And the threats? The other way around…..

38. The small TEXT

39. MOOC in an international perspective:
New global agenda for innovation
in higher education
• 1) Goverment should provide a holistic, favorable framework for open and
online learning and in line with the values of UNESCO. Intesive should be
established for wanted direction. Dialogue with stakeholders, in particular HEI.
Specific goals to be set. OER in line with the UNESCO declaration a part of the
framework.
• 2) Support and facilitation of Leadership for change to a more open and online
education. Competencies to be build.
• 3) Incentives and support for faculty and teachers change
processes, competencies and working environment to acheive a more open and
online education.
• 4) Framework and methodologies that put the learner in the centre.
• 5) Cooperation across institutions, and countries on content and platforms for a
more open and online education, hereunder MOOC.
• 6) Interoperability between solutions.
• 7) Concrete goals and plans for research and innovation within the field, well
anchored at the institutions concerned..

40. Dr Qian Tang, Assistant Director-General for Education, UNESCO (8/11/2013).
It is necessary to repeat the confirmation of fundamental principles:
• Education is
– A fundamental human rights
– A public good
– A basis for man's attainment of peace, sustainable
development, gender equality and responsible global citizenship
– A key factor in reducing inequality and poverty.
• And further: Imperative for Education for post 2015 agenda must
be:
–
–
–
–
–
Equitable access to education for all and at all levels
Quality of education and learning
Fairness
Gender equality
Lifelong learning

41. Thank you!
titlestad@icde.org
www.icde.org