1. Finding Order in Countries with
Weak States: The Dilemma of the
Somali Polities
David K. Leonard
Governance Team
IDS

2. The Questions
• The former Somalia has not had an effective
state since 1991.
• What are the causes and consequences of this
statelessness?
• How can an acceptable level of human
security and order be found in these
circumstances?

3. Eastern Africa

4. The Somali Polities Under Colonialism,
• Somalis are a distinct ethnic group, with their
own language and culture.
• Largely pastoralist
• Historically stateless
• British Somaliland and (Italian) Somalia
• (French) Djibouti
• Significant numbers in Ethiopia (Ogaden) &
Kenya (North-east Province)

5. Somali Territories

6. Current Somali Polities
• Djibouti (Somali dominated)
• Somaliland (reasserted indepin 1991)
• Transitional Federal Government
– Mogadishu
– Puntland (autonomous)
– Mudug (autonomous)
• Islamist (Kismayu and south-central)
• Ethiopian Region V and Kenyan North-east

7. Livelihoods Under Statelessness
• Livestock production and trade OK
• Fishing hurt by EU toxic dumping
• Inter-riverine crop production hurt and thus
famine in south
• Service infrastructure hurt as tax base is weak
• Overall – probably better in north than under
Barre’s state

8. Governance without States?
• Order maintained by clan-based diya-paying
groups of ca. 100 adult males
• Tit-for-tat
• Governance is highly egalitarian
• But now also distorted by military and
commercial patrons
– Business  Militias not v.v.
• Contract enforcement through shariacourts

9. Location of Major Clan Families in
1950s

10. Islam: Not Whether but What Type
• A good business partner is a good Muslim
• All Sunnis, but in south
– Sufis AhluSunnaWaljama'a
– Wahabisal-Shabab

11. Failure of State-building from Above
• Continuous international efforts since 1991 to
recreate the Somalia state
• All based on elite bargains and all have failed
• Most recent is Transitional Federal Government
(2004)
• Ethiopian incursion of 2006 ended in failure and
withdrawal
• African Union stalled under Burundi & Uganda
• Kenyan incursion of south?

12. Successful Governance from the
Bottom
• Somaliland – elders  elder delegates in +4
month negotiations (1991-1993)
• Puntland – in +3 month negotiations (1998)
supported by militia leadership
• SSC (Sool, Sanaag and Cayn) – looks 2 ways
• Galmudug -- AhluSunnaWaljama'a&Hawiye
clan
• Kismayu and south – al Shabaab/ Hizbul Islam

13. Encouraging Governance
• Interpeace (WSP); Bryden, Menkhaus
• From the bottom
• Without worrying about UN statehood, size or
regularity
• Encouraging through UN trust fund aid to
whatever is working

14. Challenges -- Piracy
• Puntland
• Eyl but
• Money & power
• Don’t want to force into Islamist hands
• More effective NATO corridors

15. Challenges – Terrorism in Kenya
• Legitimate Kenyan interests
• Now supported by Ethiopia (& US)
• But can it succeed or will it exacerbate?
• Negotiations inhibited by unwillingness to
deal with Islamist polities or by lack of internal
control?
• Counter-attacks by drone?