Angie Setzer IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Production Prospects for the Northern Hemisphere Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) APR 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT

2. The figures discussed by me today came from the government of Canada’s Agricultural and Agri
Food Canada’s March outlook update. While the US data came from the March 31st Planting
Intentions report, with fill in data from the USDA’s 2023 Ag Outlook conference in February
Both the US and Canada expect principal acreage to be up year over year. This an interesting
reversal of recent trends that have shown principal acreage declines
Weather, as always, will have the final say, with a breakdown in La Nina seen as a benefit to the
overall production outlook
Lower production costs with prices remain elevated have farmers optimistic for the growing
season ahead, with most eager to get started with planting as quickly as possible
Yields are expected to improve in the United States after drought impacted production in the
Western Corn Belt last year, while a repeat of last year’s record yields across much of Canada will
likely prove difficult

5. Corn acres up 3.4 million
from last year and one
million higher than Ag
Outlook projections at 92
million
Soybean acres similar to final
acreage last year and in line
with Ag Outlook projections
at 87.5 million
Wheat acres up from
expectations and up 4 million
from last year at 49.855,
winter wheat behind the
expansion
Cotton area down 2.7 million
from last year at 11.1 million
acres. Decline was expected
based on economics

10. Corn acres have a tendency of increasing, especially in years of
fast planting. 15 out of 22 years we have seen an increase in
corn acres from March intentions
No real historical correlation on soybean acres in June versus
intentions. 10 years out of 22 higher, 3 unchanged and 9 lower
Corn acre adjustments tend to be under 2 million, with only 2
years out of the last 16 years exceeding that, while soybeans
have had 6 years with an adjustment greater than 2 million
Trendline yields have been difficult to accomplish the last
several years, with a tendency to believe this year will be no
different