The document discusses options for global agricultural trade after the Nairobi conference and analyzes Argentina's agricultural policies and projections. It summarizes that: 1) Argentina previously had high tax burdens on agriculture including export taxes and quotas that negatively impacted production incentives. 2) In late 2015, Argentina removed currency controls, export taxes, and permit systems under a new administration, marking significant policy changes. 3) Projections estimate that under a new scenario without interventionist policies, Argentina's agricultural production and market share of exports, especially for corn, could increase substantially by 2024-25 compared to prior estimates.

1. Options for global agricultural trade
after Nairobi:
Global solutions or national actions?
Ramiro Costa
Chief Economist
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange

2. Date May 2015
Soybean FOB Arg. 360,7 USD/tn
Export Tax 126,2 USD/tn
FOB - Export Duty 234,5 USD/tn
Main agricultural policies (2002-2015)
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange

3. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
High tax burden: ordinary taxes + export taxes
Lower crop prices: export taxes + export quotas + other regulations
Results: Intervention Policies
Negative impact on incentives
for production:
Investments: technology
Area growth rate
Agricultural practices

4. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
• Election: Nov 22
• Inauguration: Dec 10
• Removal of
 Currency controls: Dec 17
 Export taxes: Dec 17
 Export permit system: Dec 29
New Administration:
Significant Ag. Policy Changes

5. ARGENTINA TOWARD 2024-25
World and Argentine Agribusiness Reference Scenario to 2024-25
INAI FOUNDATION
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange

6. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Production Estimates: Baseline Scenario
2014/15 to 2024/25
Source: INAI Foundation & USDA Baseline

7. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Production Estimates: New Scenario
2014/15 to 2024/25
x 6
Source: INAI Foundation & USDA Baseline

8. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Exports: Argentine market share
Source: INAI Foundation
2014 2024
baseline
2024 new
scenario
Total 7,4% 6,7% 9,5%
Cereals 5,2% 4,5% 8,0%
Wheat 2,7% 2,3% 4,9%
Corn 11,6% 8,8% 17,9%
Soybean 9,1% 7,6% 9,1%
Soybean Oil 49,4% 41,1% 48,5%

9. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Argentine new ag policy framework
• A new normal
 On the track of growth
 New opportunities: investments in agribusiness
• There is a new agenda
 Smart integration to world markets
 Work on productivity

10. Ramiro Costa
rcosta@bc.org.ar
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Thank you!

11. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Source: INAI Foundation
Wheat
New Scenario: short-run changes
Corn
2016 Agricultural Outlook Forum
USDA