Lead authors: Jason Donovan, Pieter Rutsaert, Kai Mausch, Conny Almekinders, Essegbemon Akpo, Margaret McEwan, Kelvin Mashisia Shikuku Contributors: Peter Coaldrake, Erik Delaquis, Marcel Gatto, Jon Hellin, Jens-Peter Barnekow Lillesø, Okeyo MwaiLilleso, Sunil Siriwardena, David Spielman, and Yigezu Atnafe Yigezu Updated as of October 2021

1. L E A D A U T H O R S :
Jason Donovan
Pieter Rutsaert
Kai Mausch
Conny Almekinders
Essegbemon Akpo
Margaret McEwan
Kelvin Mashisia Shikuku
C O N T R I B U T I O N S :
Zewdie Bishaw
Peter Coaldrake
Erik Delaquis
Marcel Gatto
Jon Hellin
Jens-Peter Barnekow Lillesø
Okeyo MwaiLilleso
Sunil Siriwardena
David Spielman
Yigezu Atnafe Yigezu
Strengthening seed
value chains:
Persistent challenges
and ways forward
March 2021

2. S E T T I N G T H E B A S E S
2

3. The Big Picture
• Overall, crop improvement by the CGIAR stands out for its capacity to deliver impact:
• “most profound documented positive impacts” relative to other CGIAR programmatic areas
(Renkow and Byerlee 2010)
• “global success story” built upon a foundation of open access and international cooperation
(Byerlee and Dubin 2019)
• Various challenges remain for accelerating/deepening impact:
• limited business capacity/willingness, especially in the case of non-hybrid seed
• insufficient priority given to consumer-preferred traits
• unobservable attributes (quality, stress tolerance)
• cumbersome regulatory frameworks around seed production/trade/marketing
• incomplete recognition for and (lack of) support for informal seed sector
• The times are changing (see box), with important implications for future priorities in 1-CGIAR:
• innovation in approaches to seed systems development, recognizing heterogeneity among farmers
in needs, capacities and goals
• validated solutions (across crop and regional contexts) for faster slow varietal turnover and higher
adoption rates
• more reliable data for design and delivery of products and services for seed systems development
• deeper learning on how to achieve faster impact at scale (more efficiently) through breeding and
related seed systems work
• Changing times require new thinking and approaches by CGIAR: broader research agenda that responds
to the goals and needs of stakeholders, deeper (evidence-based) engagement between breeding and
social science teams, solution orientation to the bottlenecks in varietal turnover and seed adoption,
effective solutions for seed delivery where markets are thin (fewer buyers and sellers)
• This slide deck applies a value chain framework for exploring the issues, bottlenecks and unknowns,
related to seed systems development and its contribution to SDGs
The times are changing...
• 1-CGIAR mission: innovations deployed
faster, at a larger scale, and at reduced cost,
having greater impact where they are
needed the most
• Excellence in Breeding and Crops to End
Hunger: push for higher efficiency and
impact of CGIAR breeding programs:
programs define ‘product profiles’ to match
defined market segments, prioritized by
‘investment cases’
• Various ongoing bilaterally funded regional
programs on seed delivery, with varying
levels of CGIAR engagement (e.g. ISSD,
S34D)
• Strong market orientation in donor-funded
investments on seed delivery (e.g. AGRA),
services for seed production (e.g. QualiBasic
Seed) & seed access monitoring (e.g.
TASAI, Access to Seeds Index)
• Firestorm of mergers & acquisitions in global
seed markets: from 6 to 4 major players: eg:
four-firm concentration ratio 99% for maize
seed in S. Africa (OECD 2018)
3

4. • Seed value chain (SVC): actors who are interlinked through both commercial
and non-commercial relationships in the development, production, assessment,
transport and use of seeds.
• Seed value chain development: process by which seed value chains evolve to
deliver increased value/quality to seed users. Implies the design/creation of the
‘right’ product for farmers & consumers and efforts to strengthen the chain’s
capacity to deliver the product to the ‘right’ farmers. The development processes
may require: upgrading of business capacities, deeper coordination among
actors, access to reliable data on seed markets (farmer demand), and an
enabling environment that supports seed business growth.
• Seed demand: farmers preferences for (and access to) seed, which respond to
different farming conditions, household strategies, knowledge about seed, among
other factors. Within a population of farmers, considerable variation exists in seed
demand, suggesting the need for multi-dimensional approaches to seed
production and delivery. SVCs, which tend to operate in formal seed systems,
represent one approach, but others may be needed (e.g. attention to informal
systems).
• Seed business: organizations (for profit or non-profit) that produce and/or market
seed – may include informal community nurseries, livestock/fish rearing groups
and individuals – they engage with projects, NGOs, and government agencies, as
well as with other private sector actors (e.g. retailers, seed outgrowers, farmers).
• Service providers: businesses, NGOs, consultants that provide goods, services
and technologies to SVC, to include seed production inputs (to include foundation
seed), financial services, and marketing support.
Value chain principles
1. Demand oriented
2. Primary focus on value and quality
3. Product orientation towards differentiation
4. Responsive to changing needs
5. Collaboration between stakeholders
6. Towards chain optimization
7. Extensive information sharing
Hobbs et al. (2000), Fearne et al. (2012)
Terms and abbreviations
4

5. Spotlighting key actors & issues in seed value chains (SVCs)
FARMING HOUSEHOLDS
• Households with diverse set of aspirations,
capacities and needs, with implications for seed
selection
• Exogenous factors shape their seed choices: seed
availability, seed quality, seed price, and
information on available options
• Farmers’ cannot assess the quality and attributes
of seed before they use it: induces additional risk
into decisions on seed selection
• Seed access varies by crop and location, with
serious limits to the reach of seed value chains in
areas where demand is low / unreliable
• Variation among households based on socio-
demographics (e.g. age, gender), crop use (e.g.
sell, own consumption) and crop utilization (e.g.
processing, type of dish) also influence seed
update
Priorities for value chain development
• Build information systems that deliver reliable and
timely information on farmers’ demand for seed
• Support faster feedback loops between breeding
programs, seed businesses, state agencies on
current and future seed demand
• Build evidence base to support better design and
implementation of seed systems development that
recognizes the variation in demand and access
SEED BUSINESSES
• Responsible for seed multiplication; engage
upstream with germplasm providers and breeding
programs and downstream with seed retailers,
government/NGO buyers, and farmers (customers)
• They take different organizational forms in formal
sector (e.g. private businesses, cooperatives, state
owned enterprises) and informal sector (e.g. seed
production groups, community tree nurseries)
• Businesses exhibit strong variation in strategies and
capacities to multiply and market seed, with
implications for varietal turnover and investment in
seed marketing
• They operate in a complex institutional setting with
growing/strong competition among businesses for
market share, for access to germplasm and
NGO/government contracts
Priorities for value chain development
• Innovation in seed marketing in support of higher
adoption, varietal turnover, gender & social equity
and other SDGs
• Increased collaboration with other seed companies
and with retailers to increase efficiencies and expand
markets
• Access to reliable information on seed demands
(market conditions) to support targeted strategies for
seed delivery (marketing)
SERVICE PROVIDERS
• Government agencies engaged in national strategy
and policy, regulation of markets, investment in
enabling soft and hard infrastructure, provision of
complementary services (e.g. extension), provision
of incentives (e.g. taxes, subsidies, tariffs), quality
assurance mechanisms
• NGOs that provide training and technical support in
business administration and marketing at no cost
• Research centres that provide access to new
genetics for seed production and training for seed
multiplication
• Consultants and private companies that provide
inputs and services (financial and advisory) to seed
businesses and seed retailers on a commercial basis
Priorities for value chain development
• Instruments and mechanisms to create the enabling
conditions and incentivize investment by SVC actors
• Explicit policy measures for support to formal and
informal seed businesses and retailers
• Private service providers to expand their support to
seed businesses to address bottlenecks around seed
quality and market expansion
• Coordinated approaches among services providers
and seed businesses for increased efficiencies and
scale
5

6. F A R M E R S E E D
D E M A N D
6

7. Advances in understanding farmer seed demand
Decades of work by CGIAR and others in the fields of
economics, gender studies, psychology, sociology and
marketing offers sharp insights into seed demand
Some of the factors that shape seed demand:
• Utilization of end-product (e.g. taste, texture, storage, milling)
• Production systems (farm size, soil, water, infrastructure, agroecology)
• Household characteristics (education, access to labor, livelihood strategies,
income levels, culture)
• Intra-household dynamics (access to cash, resource allocations, inter-
generational relations, agency, voice)
• Experience with and expectations of yield gains, economic benefits
• Institutional factors (land tenure)
• Reliable physical access to seed
• Information on seed options (and interest/capacity to learn)
• Risk reduction instruments (e.g. index insurance)
• Marketing capacities/strategies of seed companies and retailers
Source: Sperling et al. (2020)
7

8. But… growing calls for innovation in how we
assess seed demand
In terms of context:
“Research methods for studying farmers’ seed demand are not yielding information that reflects the real-life decisions and
behaviors of farmers in the choice and acquisition of their seeds.” (Almekinders et al. 2019)
In terms of external validity:
“Crop adaptation to climate change requires accelerated crop variety introduction accompanied by recommendations to help
farmers match the best variety with their field contexts. Existing approaches to generate these recommendations lack scalability
and predictivity in marginal production environments.” (van Etten et al. 2019)
“…parcel and farmer selection, together with behavioral responses in agronomic trials, can explain why yield gain estimates
from trials may differ from the yield gains of smallholders using the same inputs under real-life conditions” (Laajaj et al. 2020)
In terms of gender and consumers:
“Insufficient consideration of gender differences has contributed to inadequately described varietal product profiles. Women are
often involved in the preparation and processing of RTB crops and, therefore, have more valuable knowledge and expertise.
However, more evidence is needed and surveys about adoptions must include clear gender and expertise disaggregation of
trait preferences in order to provide more illuminating data.” (Thiele et al. 2020)
“Breeding programs for root, tuber and banana (RTB) crops have traditionally considered consumer demand for quality
characteristics as low priority against other considerations such as yield and disease resistance.” (Forsythe et al. 2020)
8

9. Persistent gaps in understanding seed demand
Performance of varieties & seeds
• Limited systematic information on the performance of varieties, effect of seed
quality and seed degeneration, cost/benefit of different type of planting materials in
a farmer agro-ecological and socio-economic context
• Lack of reliable info that compares how farmers’ obtain and use seeds (e.g.
formal-informal, improved – local, certified – local) and the implications for the
design of seed systems interventions
Agroecological & socioeconomic factors that shape demand
• Production systems (farm size, soil, water, infrastructure, agroecology, land tenure)
• Objective of agricultural production (main income/home consumption) and
utilization of end-product (e.g. taste, texture, storage, milling)
• Household characteristics (e.g. education, access to labor, livelihood goals and
strategies, income levels, culture) and intra-household dynamics (e.g. access to
cash, resource allocations, inter-generational relations, agency, voice)
• Experiences with and expectations of yield gains, economic benefits, access to
information and seeds, risks and risk reduction instruments, etc.
Highly differentiated demand for seed expressed in different
variety/seed preferences and acquisition behavior
Looking ahead: Options to
increase the relevance and
efficiency of CGIAR research on
seed demand
• Build processes that encourage better
communication & coordination between
social science and breeding teams for setting
priorities and designing interventions
• Advance practical solutions to well known
methodological challenges in assessing
farmers’ demand – to include estimation of
demand for seed with unobservable
attributes
• Support more research that provides
representative estimates on
demand/preferences of smallholders to
better guide breeding priorities
• Encourage stronger collaboration among
centers on design of tools and approaches for
research and engagement on seed value
chains
• Stronger collaboration with external partners
with a strong track record in engaging on
solutions to seed systems development
9

10. Farmer-seed demand typologies:
Recognizing heterogeneity among farming households
40 % of the farmers have adopted improved
varieties challenge is
i) variety replacement and
ii) seed quality
Rural
Urban
Commercial
farmer
30-40 % of the farmers with mixed
challenges of:
• Adoption of (new) improved varieties
– if: seed is available/accessible;
low/variable on input requirement;
good market prices; information is
available to farmers; farmers’ seed
demands are rightly captured (?)
• Higher quality seed
20-30 % of farmers are in a poverty trap:
agriculture cannot lift them out of poverty
– least likely to benefit from development
of seed value chains.
Subsistence-
oriented
farmer
Smallholder /
reorienting
family farmer
Theories of change underpinning seed system
development and related breeding efforts tend to
overlook variation in farmers’ needs and goals.
Looking ahead… there is need for greater
recognition of heterogeneity among households in
terms of their access to resources, livelihood
strategies, and production systems.
A better understanding of this heterogeneity will
facilitate:
• Design of multidimensional strategies to effectively
reach different segments of the seed market
• Prioritization of activities/investments by breeding
programs and seed systems teams
• Better guidance on effective distribution/marketing
strategies by seed providers and retailers.
• Identification of the best placed outreach partners
for getting the right seed to the right farmers
• Coordination of complementary support for the
poorest farmers (those for whom better access to
seed alone is unlikely to lead to meaningful
outcomes/impacts)
10

11. Responding to variation in farmer’s seed demand
means understanding their perspective and
experiences to identify the best opportunities for
seed value chains to deliver at scale
Serious commitments bring up serious
questions, dilemmas and choices....
• Who are the farmers that we are targeting
and how do their goals and economics look
like?
• How do different types of farmers source
seeds from the various commercial and
other seed value chains/delivery pathways
– taking in consideration the seed system
characteristics of various food crops (maize
vs grain legumes/small grains vs root-tuber-
banana crops.
• If aiming to improve livelihoods, agricultural
food production, and other SDG goals,
•what trade-offs present themselves and
•which seed value chains to invest in
•how to reshape them, i.e how to
integrate the future in the setting of goals
of farmers, breeders, and other value
chain actors?
• Acknowledge differences between
crops/livestock/trees and their seed
systems/value chains (e.g.
commercialization potential of seed)
• Implications for CGIAR in terms of what
SVCs to work on in the different
crops/livestock/trees and how?
• Critical questions, different thinking
required, e.g. how high do adoption rates or
variety turnover have to be to be
‘successful’?
11

12. Advancing a demand-driven approach in CGIAR to
prioritize breeding efforts
3 key components:
• Market segments: unique combinations of grower and consumer needs
• Investment cases: the ‘opportunity’ in a market segment to advance development
goals through breeding pipeline
• Product profiles: ‘ideal’ product for growers and consumers in a given market
segment
Crops to End Hunger (CtEH) implementation mechanism (April 2020):
“Develop and present an investment case for each of the pipelines/product profiles
managed by the Center that provides enough detail to allow Funders to allocate
specific amounts of funding to specific product profiles.”
Requires considerable data – example:
Challenges to advance include:
• Timely and reliable data just isn’t available
at level of market segment, leading to ‘best
guesses’
• Approaches and tools are needed to
operationalize the concept of ‘market
segments’
• Unclear divisions of labor persist between
breeding leads, social science teams,
breeders, GIS units, etc. for data collection
and analysis
• Mechanisms still need to be designed for
scrutiny within CGIAR teams on data
reliability and options for improvements
over time
• Limited discussion on differences in
methods and approaches between centers
and options/needs for harmonization
Addressing these challenges will take time and
creativity, but the ball is rolling…
12

13. S E E D B U S I N E S S E S
and
S E E D VA L U E C H A I N S
13

14. Seed businesses: more than just a
vehicle for seed delivery
• Seed systems interventions have tended to focus on seed businesses in
their role as seed producers/suppliers
• Businesses considered more as a vehicle for seed production and delivery
by than as organizations with unique strategies, capacities and needs
• We know too little about the pathways in which businesses evolve and the
implications for getting higher quality & more affordable seed to the different
type of farmers for the different crops/livestock/trees
• Seed companies, especially smaller ones, often struggle to build market
share for new varieties; challenges include:
• weak financial viability
• high seed production costs
• weak links to retail sector
• lack of business management and marketing stills
• farmers reluctant to switch to new varieties (sticking to what they
know)
• unlevel playing field (e.g. well connected businesses with preferential
access to government contracts, particular varieties)
• Improvement over time will require more attention to the needs and
strategies of seed businesses, their engagements with the other chain
actors, and development of the overall business environment
• Need to embrace better and faster learning about seed business
development pathways è expanded set of metrics beyond seed production
volumes
Knowledge gaps related to seed businesses
and their role in supporting inclusive seed
value chains
• Variations in development pathways across
crops, regions, and business types
• Needs (demand) for services and inputs to
grow operations in less time
• Capacity and willingness to reach the
poorest of farmers
• Anti-competitive behavior, and other issues,
that limit getting more seed delivered at
lowest cost
• Potential to expand sales through
innovative engagements with wholesalers,
retailers, NGOs, others
• Costs and benefits of new marketing
approaches / tools
• Effects of market structure on the
willingness and capacity of seed
businesses to introduce new varieties
14

15. Bringing new seed into formal systems: Seed portfolio management
• Product life cycle management is important for:
o Profit-oriented seed businesses: to stay ahead of
competition and keep improving the product portfolio
o Breeding programs: ensure new genetic innovations
reach farmers
• In theory, businesses introduce new products over time, while
phasing out older versions
• Requires long term planning and the ability to build market
share for new seeds and cover the losses from the reduction
of sales of older seeds
Time
Introduction Growth Decline
Maturity
Introduction Growth
Production
Product A Product B
In reality, seed businesses may be reluctant to remove top
selling products from the market:
• It’s difficult to build market share for new seeds, with limited
clarity on how farmers make their seed purchase decisions
(including the role of brand loyalty, quality perceptions, price)
• Business lack the investment capacity needed to sustain a
forward-looking portfolio management strategy
• Or, they just don’t feel the need to invest in replacement…
(farmers as loyal customers)
What are the best options to advance faster turnover
by seed businesses?
Carrots: financial/tax incentives to take varieties off the market
Sticks: withhold access to breeder seed for older varieties
Mandates: regulatory requirements to take old seed off the market
15

16. Value chain for genetically improved farmed tilapia, Bangladesh
Private sector broodstock
multiplication hatcheries
Seed Production Seed distribution
Commission agents,
seed traders
Farmers
Both homestead and
commercial
CGIAR, NARS (e.g., Bangladesh
Fisheries Research Institute - BFRI)
Seed production Seed distribution
Farming households (smallholder,
rainfed)
Current
situation
• There are currently two models for the genetically improved
farmed tilapia (GIFT): one (presented above) starts with CGIAR
and BFRI providing elite germplasm to a few private sector
broodstock multiplication hatcheries (located in different parts of
the country) which then sell broodstock (mixed-sex seed) to
multiplier hatcheries and fry/fingerlings (mono-sex seed) to
grow-out farmers. BFRI also sells to multiplier hatcheries.
• In this model, multiplier hatcheries are supposed to replace their
broodstock after about 2 years with new broodstock obtained
from the breeding nucleus at BFRI and private sector broodstock
multiplication hatcheries in order to reduce inbreeding and
maximize genetic gain.
• The main issue is low demand for elite germplasm by multiplier
hatcheries which continue to rely on their own seed for
broodstock development.
• The broodstock multiplication hatcheries
and the multiplier hatcheries mostly sell
commercial (mono-sex) seed directly to
farmers. Some hatcheries have agents
who help with distribution. In other cases,
seed traders buy from hatcheries and sell
to grow-out farmers.
• Infrastructure problems and hidden costs
during transportation hinder effective
distribution.
• Credit constraints
• Limited knowledge in identification of
good quality seed and accredited seed
suppliers
• High cost of complementary inputs such
as feed constrains demand for quality
fish seed
• Inadequate knowledge in better
management practices resulting in sub-
optimal performance of elite strains
which could in turn affect effective
demand
Major challenge: low demand for elite germplasm by multiplier hatcheries
Private sector multiplier
hatcheries
16

17. Value chain for hybrid maize, Kenya
Seed companies
Seed Production Seed marketing & distribution
Distributors &
agro-dealers
NGOs
(local) governments
Farmers
Commercial farming
operations
Smallholder farming
households (rainfed)
CGIAR, NARs,
AGRA, others
Seed production Seed distribution Farming households (smallholder, rainfed)
Current
situation
• Dozens of small seed companies looking
to build market share, parastatal company
that dominates market, multinationals
increasing their presence
• Currently over 80 hybrid maize seeds on
the market, with 10% launched in past 5
years
• Little variation in price among seed
products (except for seed from parastatal),
most seed packaged in 2kg bags
• Marketing concentrated on demo plots &
radio
• Limited investment capacity, lack of
information, high risks to market new
products
• Thousands of small agro-dealers scattered
around maize growing regions
• Small-scale businesses, where seed
comprises but one among many products
sold
• Limited efforts made to market seed to
farmers, and limited engagement with
farmers on seed selection
• Agro-dealers purchase seed in small
volumes, frequent restocking during maize
season (responsible for all unsold seed)
• Most farmers purchase seed on a seasonal
basis
• Tend to purchase seed products that are well
known and trusted
• Farmers have limited information on seed
products (or interest in exploring new seed
products)
• Maize gain productivity remains low, at
roughly 2 MT/Ha, with increasingly variable
rainfall patterns and increasing frequency
of prolonged droughts
Major challenge: slow varietal turnover
17

18. Value chain
for tree
seedlings
Seed production Seed/seedling distribution
Farming households (smallholder,
rainfed)
Current
situation
• Large differences between types of “trees”, with respect to their
reproduction, characterization of quality, production capacity of sources
• Except for fruit tree cultivars and commodity crops (e.g. cocoa, coffee, tea,
rubber, cashew nuts) varieties are generally not recognized in agroforestry
• Wild and semi-domesticated trees, e.g. fodder trees, timber trees, fertilizer
shrubs are almost never characterized into varieties (provenances) despite
that all trees have varieties (provenances) with specific recommendation
domains
• All “tree” types have in common that smallholder farmers generally do not
have access to quality planting material – documented sources are not
made available by the public sector or private companies, not only for wild
and semi-domesticated species, but even for fruit tree cultivars and
commodity crops
• Distribution systems
dominated by supply
orientation by funders and
NGOs – with a focus on
number of farmers planting
trees, regardless of quality
• Funders and NGOs typically
finance seed collection from
uncharacterized seed
sources and establish
project nurseries, ignoring
existing small-scale private
nurseries
• Extra cost of using high quality seed
sources has very limited influence on cost
of seedlings
• Farmers purchase tree seedlings in much
smaller quantities and on a supra-
seasonal basis
• Farmers have limited access to
knowledge on best varieties
• Tree crops are long lived and increasing
number of source will become mal-
adapted with climate change
18

19. Regulatory issues:
• (il)legal status informal seed
production
• Varietal registration procedures
• Quality assurance, including
testing and labeling
• Early-generation seed provision
• Input subsidy programs
• Support for small business
development and seed marketing
• Antitrust policy
• Seed flows, cross-border
movement, phytosanitary
health/disease spreading, and
international trade
Enabling environment for seed value chain development
Business issues:
• Access to affordable financial
services and advisory services
• Contract enforcement
• Timely, reliable market
information
• Access to modern equipment
for production and processing
• Risk sharing mechanisms
• Targeted support strategies for
small and medium (informal)
seed businesses
• Fairness/transparency in
access to government
contracts
• Influence of output markets on
the demand for seed
Where CGIAR can contribute:
• Assessing costs & benefits of
current regulations and
alternative measures
• Bottlenecks in policy
implementation (incentives,
externalities, tradeoffs)
• Design of effective market
information systems
• Generating lessons across
contexts on what works and
why
• Engagement with industry
groups and NGOs on policy
design and implementation
19

20. Government initiatives for quality seed & EGS supply
• In Tanzania the Agricultural Seed Agency was
established as a public seed company to take care
of EGS of bulky legumes and small cereals
• Present government administration has made
efforts to put structures in place for proper seed
regulation, but implementation and enforcement lag
Seed trade
• Regional seed trade harmonization in progress and
some progress has been made
Working differently
• Smart implementation of government seed subsidy
spurs quality seed access to farmers
• Government policy opening large market for small
cereals consumption like flour blending
Digitizing quality control systems & seed certification
• Some countries introducing digital quality
assurance systems
• Seed certification being digitized in some countries
through donor support
Multi-stakeholder partnerships
• Private-Public Partnerships creating market for
farmers to produce highly demand varieties
• Development organizations piloting innovative support to
private seed entrepreneurship
Availability of relevant data
• Biophysical data available for on-station performance of
new varieties (e.g. yield, stress tolerance)
• Data effort being built to inform existing market typology
Development of new end-pull markets
• The emergence of industrial processors has increased
demand of seeds of particular varieties (e.g. small cereal
crops)
• Business linkages nascent among grain off-takers and
farmers
Commodity corridors opening business
• Localized grain and seed business hubs benefitting all
players involved
• Market oriented seed and grain production
• Technical capacity building and inputs supply to farmers
Recent developments & pilots (examples cereals SSA)
20

21. TA K I N G S T O C K
and
T H E R O A D A H E A D
21

22. Taking stock (1)
• While progress has been made on understanding seed demand, the insights gained have had limited influence on
setting goals of seed value chain development and breeding priorities. More critical reflection is needed on:
• Differentiation between farmers and their corresponding differences in variety and seed choices in different
crops/livestock/trees
• Traits being considered in assessments
• Innovation in tools and methods (representative samples)
• Engagement with breeding teams, seed businesses, NARs, donors
• We need more collaboration (across disciplines, centers, and with key partners) for effective tool design for assessing
farmer demand, to include efforts for tool validation across different contexts
• Get the basics right: need for representative and timely agronomic*social*economic data on seed, variety and seed
market performance (supply, prices, uptake by farmers) and adequate sharing of this information – establish feed
back loops to better targeting of support and assessing the relevance of existing and future pipelines;
• More nuanced thinking about how to build and meet demand and increased access to seed for the poorest: formal
seed markets (value chains) are not equipped to supply all farmers adequately with seed (see Louwaars, de Boef &
Edeme (2012); agriculture cannot lift the poorest out of poverty (Hazel et al., 2019)
• Consensus on implications of differences for (support to) future projected seed value chain configurations combining
formal and informal seed businesses.
22

23. • Faster growth of seed businesses requires access to effective, affordable services that meet a variety of needs (beyond
production capacity). However, these services should not be based on project support alone and long-term sustainability will
depend on demand and willingness to pay for these services.
• Seed businesses - as well as CGIAR, donors, and governments - operate with a blind eye on seed market conditions: there is
little or no timely or reliable information on supply and demand conditions.
• The enthusiasm for market-oriented approaches to seed systems development is here to stay: genetic innovation is part of the
solution – but need increased attention to other aspects:
• Seed production, product registration, quality control
• Design of support for seed promotion, sale and delivery
• Potential for innovation in grower support, advice and education to increase production
• CGIAR is uniquely positioned to lead the conversation on questions related to: seed demand, design of seed systems
interventions, seed marketing, seed policy, seed business development – but this will require increased alignment among
social scientists and new partnerships (especially with organizations with extensive work in the field)
• The theories of change that underpin breeding programs make strong assumptions about the capacities, strategies and
incentives of seed businesses and farmers – these need to be scrutinized over time to design more nuanced support
strategies. How to address the demands and needs of those outside formal market-led SVC?
• Building better theories of change also implies an acknowledgement of the heterogeneity of farmer households and the
recognition that agricultural production plays different roles – this implies the need for broader thinking on the approaches,
tools and partnerships needed
Taking stock (2)
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24. The road ahead…
• We urgently need more reflection and scrutiny on the theories of change that underpin contribution to SDGs through and
seed systems development for different type of farmers.
• We need to rethink approaches to assessing differentiated preferences and demand of seed users: more mixed methods,
more dialogue with farmers, more reflection with stakeholders
• Our work needs to better embrace the complexities and nuances inherent in seed value chains: this implies moving beyond
two-dimensional views: informal-formal; private-public; male-female; commercial-subsistence
• Better data & deeper engagement: breeding teams need to know: 1) how seeds perform across different farms & farming
households and 2) how the pipeline will impact the success and efficiency of the seed system.
• Ask more tough and critical questions on what we consider (in terms of metrics) and what explains success and failure of
varieties and seed technologies: e.g., we will gain as much from a better understanding why products may pass national
registration process but ultimately fail in the market
• Time to reflect on our own assumptions, biases and mindsets about seed systems: we need to define and be explicit on
whom we focus and why, i.e. which type of farmers, seed value chains and seed businesses.
• One-CGIAR is very well positioned to advance an ambitious & impactful R&D agenda around these issues; to include work
to generate field-tested frameworks, approaches and tools
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25. Relevant research
• Almekinders CJ, Beumer K, Hauser M, et al. (2019) Understanding the relations between farmers’ seed demand and research methods: The challenge to do better. Outlook on
Agriculture 48: 16-21. 10.1177/0030727019827028
• Byerlee, D. and Dubin, H (2019) Crop improvement in the CGIAR as a global success story of open access and international collaboration. International Journal of the Commons.
4 (1): 452-480.
• Das B, Van Deventer F, Wessels A, et al. (2019) Role and challenges of the private seed sector in developing and disseminating climate-smart crop varieties in Eastern and
Southern Africa. In: The Climate-Smart Agriculture Papers: Investigating the Business of a Productive, Resilient and Low Emission Future. Cham: Springer International
Publishing, 67-78.
• Donovan J, Stoian D and Hellin J (2020) Value chain development and the poor: Promise, delivery, and opportunities for impact at scale. Practical Action Publishing, Rugby, U.K.
• Forsythe L, Tufan H, Bouniol A, et al. An interdisciplinary and participatory methodology to improve user acceptability of root, tuber and banana varieties. International Journal of
Food Science & Technology n/a.https://doi.org/10.1111/ijfs.14680
• Laajaj, R, Macours K, Masso C, Thuita M and Vanlauwe B. 2020. Reconciling yield gains in agronomic trials with returns under African Smallholder conditions. Nature Scientific
Reports (2020) 10:14286
• Louwaars N., de Boef W.S. and Edeme J. 2012. Integrated seed sector development in Africa: A basis for seed policy and law. Journal of Crop Improvement 27 (2): 186-214
• Pircher T and Almekinders C. (in press) Making sense of farmers' demand for seed of root, tuber and banana crops: a systematic review of methods. Food Security.
• Rutsaert P and Donovan J (2020) Sticking with the old seed: Input value chains and the challenges to deliver genetic gains to smallholder maize farmers. Outlook on Agriculture
49: 39-49.
• Spielman DJ and Kennedy A (2016) Towards better metrics and policymaking for seed system development: Insights from Asia's seed industry. Agricultural Systems 147: 111-
122.
• Shikuku, K.M., Tran N., Joffre O., Saiful A.H.M.S., Barman B.K., Ali S. and Rossignoli C., 2021. Lock-ins to the dissemination of genetically improved fish seeds. Agricultural
Systems, 188, 103042, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2020.103042.
• Thiele G, Dufour D, Vernier P, et al. (2020) A review of varietal change in roots, tubers and bananas: consumer preferences and other drivers of adoption and implications for
breeding. International Journal of Food Science and Technology. 10.1111/ijfs.14684
• van Etten J, de Sousa K, Aguilar A, et al. (2019) Crop variety management for climate adaptation supported by citizen science. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 116: 4194-4199. 10.1073/pnas.1813720116
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26. The writing team
Jason Donovan is a Senior Economist at CIMMYT, based in Mexico. His work on seed markets and seed business
development is carried in the framework of the MAIZE and WHEAT CRPs, the Excellence in Breeding (EiB) platform and
bilaterally funded projects in eastern Africa and Latin America.
Pieter Rutsaert is a Market and Value Chain Specialist at CIMMYT, based in Kenya. His research looks at how maize seed is
marketed to smallholders, how farmers make their seed purchase decisions, and innovative options for getting new varieties into
the hands of more farmers.
Kai Mausch is a Senior Economist at World Agroforestry (ICRAF), based in Kenya. His work focuses on drivers of farming
household decision making. Heterogeneity of demands and different visions for future lives play an important role in his projects
and the work under CRPs GLDC and FTA.
Conny Almekinders is Associate Professor at the Knowledge, Technology and Innovation group, Social Sciences, WUR. Her
work on socio-technical interactions in breeding and seed systems is carried out in affiliation with CRP Root Tuber and Bananas
and CRP MAIZE with support of NWO-WOTRO.
Essegbemon Akpo is Seed Systems Scientist at ICRISAT, based in Nairobi, Kenya. He has expertise in plant production, seed
systems, innovation studies, participatory action research, and management of multi-stakeholder processes.
Margaret McEwan is a Senior Scientist at the International Potato Center (CIP) and CGIAR Research Program on Roots Tubers
and Bananas (RTB), Nairobi, Kenya. She is working on sustainable and inclusive seed systems models for the accelerated
dissemination and adoption of market preferred varieties as part of the SweetGAINS project.
Kelvin Mashisia Shikuku is an Economist and Scientist (Scaling and Impacts Assessment) at WorldFish, based in Malaysia.
His research, within FISH CRP and bilateral projects, focuses on seed systems and approaches for the diffusion and scaling of
innovations.
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