This document summarizes a randomized controlled trial studying the effects of a secondary school scholarship program for youth in Ethiopia. The study will provide scholarships of $300 per year to students from poor households in kebeles randomized to treatment. The objective is to analyze the program's impact on secondary school enrollment and progression. Data will be collected at baseline before scholarships are awarded and at endline two years later to compare outcomes like enrollment, academic performance, employment, and marriage between treatment and control groups. Over 2000 youth across 116 kebeles were surveyed at baseline, with about half in the treatment group eligible for scholarships.

1. SPIR II RFSA | 2023 Learning Event
The Effects of a Secondary School Scholarship on
School Progression and Youth Outcomes: A
Randomized Controlled Trial
Haleluya Tesfaye, IFPRI

2. Background
• In Ethiopia, nationwide gross enrollment rates for grades 9—12 are
estimated to be around 40% in 2020—2021, or 49% in Amhara and
39% in Oromia (Federal Ministry of Education of Ethiopia 2021).
• Delayed entry into secondary school is a serious challenge, with only
about 15% of youth entering secondary school on time in 2009, a
ratio that increased somewhat to 25% in 2016.
• By the age of 15, the average youth has completed only six years of
school, rather than the eight that would be expected for a youth who
was on-target.
• Dropout rates also begin to increase in grade seven relative to
earlier grades, with data from 2016—2017 suggesting dropout rates
in grade seven are already around 20% in Amhara and 30% in
Oromia. (Pankhurst et al. 2018).

3. Objective of the study
• Our objective is to analyse the effect of a secondary school
scholarship for youth from the poorest households in Ethiopia
on secondary school enrolment and progression, as well as a
set of related non-academic outcomes.
• Existing literature indicates that a secondary school scholarship
increased educational attainment, knowledge, and skills, and
reduced female fertility in Ghana (Duflo et al2021)
• Baird et al. (2019) also analyzed the effects of both
unconditional and conditional cash transfers for girls only in
Malawi and find that the cash transfer offered conditional on
enrollment generated a significant improvement in education for
initially out-of-school girls.

4. Outcomes of interest
• Primary outcome – enrollment in secondary school
• Secondary outcomes include passing rates on the primary
school leaving exam; attendance and academic performance in
secondary school, once enrolled; engagement in economic
activities among youth; and early marriage.

5. Study design
• This evaluation is a randomized controlled trial implemented
with randomization at the kebele level.
• The eligibility criteria for kebeles to be included the following:
 The kebele is included in the PSNP as implemented by SPIR II;
 The kebele has at least one primary school within its borders
serving students in grades seven and eight;
 The kebele does not have a secondary school within its border
• Randomization was conducted by defining two strata for kebeles
above and below the median within-woreda distance to the closest
secondary school.

6. Study design: Eligible youth
identification
• First, the parents of the youth must be a PSNP beneficiary
household in a target kebele.
• Second, the youth must be currently in grade 7 or grade 8; or
the youth has passed grade 8 but has not continued to grade 9
or dropped out from grade 9.

7. Intervention
• The intervention is a $300 scholarship per year ($150 per
semester), available to youth from PSNP households who will
enroll in secondary school (ninth grade) in fall 2023 or fall 2024.
• This educational grant will be available for eligible students for
two years (generally, ninth and tenth grade).
• The scholarship is payable directly to families in two annual
payments, at the beginning and midpoint of each school year
(September and January), for up to two years conditional on the
youth’s continued enrollment.

8. Data collection
• School Survey - primary schools in the sample kebeles were
visited to collect information about current grade 7 and 8
students and the names of students who passed grade 8 in
2021/22
• Baseline survey – conducted in February and March 2023,
youth in the treatment kebeles are informed about the
scholarship.
• Endline survey - to be conducted in fall 2025, around two
years post-baseline.

9. Baseline survey sample
Mean (percent)
Region N = 2141
Amhara 48.81
Oromia 51.19
Education level
Completed grade 6 39.7
Completed grade 7 41.01
Completed grade 8 17.89
Completed grade 9 1.40
116
kebeles
2141 youth
Control
56 kebeles
1024 youth
Treatment
60 kebeles
1117 youth

10. Baseline results
Amhara Oromia
Age 15.38 16.50
Household Size 5.06 6.7
Owns land 92.7% 98.6%
Food insecure 90.8% 97.1%
Number of assets owned 2.82 2.90
Number of livestock owned 2.42 2.72
Number of shocks experienced 3.38 3.04

11. Baseline result: Other characteristics
• Among youth who report no longer attending school, more than
70% report that is because the school was too far to travel daily,
or school costs were too high in general.
• Many are first-generation students: 72% report that neither of
their parents have formal education.
• However, 60% of the youth know someone in their social
network who has completed secondary school
• More than 92% of the youth in the sample have never used
internet.

12. Next steps
• We will be tracking enrollment rates among the full sample in
the fall when youth in treatment kebeles become eligible for the
scholarship.
• Other outcomes will be measured in the follow-up survey at the
end of the evaluation period.