1) Regional cooperation across water, energy, and food is essential to maximize economic benefits from resources in the Eastern Nile basin, but ongoing cooperation is viewed as inadequate. 2) Sectoral and cross-country analyses show total economic benefits are lower without cooperation between sectors and countries. 3) Hydropower-first strategies reduce total benefits; agricultural investment proportional to hydropower could make other renewables more advantageous.

1. The Water-Energy-Food Nexus:
Opportunities for the Eastern Nile
Claudia Ringler, IFPRI
Helen Berga, ZEF
October 24, 2017
Nile Basin Development Forum

2. Slow decline in malnourishment & alarming increase
in obesity
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Africa south of the Sahara
South Asia
Developing Countries
Stunted children (millions)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Overweight & obese
children (millions)
Undernourished people
(millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: FAOSTAT3 (http://faostat3.fao.org/download/D/FS/E).
Source: UN in de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2010. Global prevalence and trends of
overweight and obesity among preschool children. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition
92:1257–64. (http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/overweight_obesity/en/).Source: de Onis, M, M. Blössner and E. Borghi. 2011
http://www.who.int/nutgrowthdb/publications/Stunting1990_2011.pdf.
Africa
Asia
Developing Countries
Africa
Asia
Developing Countries

3. Growing demand for more water intensive calories
(meats/fruits/ vegetables) surpasses demand for R&T
and cereals (SSP2, NoCC)
2010=1.0
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

4. Growing water stress
Source: Ringler et al. (2016)
36%
39%
22%
2.5
US$9.4
TRILLION
Water stress risk
BILLION
PEOPLE
TODAY
Total population living in water
scarce areas
Global GDP generated in water
scarce regions
52%
49%
45%
US$63
TRILLION
Total population living in water
scarce areas
4.7 BILLION PEOPLE
90%
570%
By 2050
Global GDP generated in water scarce
regions
population
grain production
global GDP

5. Projected energy production by source: Seems
like Business as Usual, but..
in millions of tons of oil equivalent
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biofuels Wind/Sol./Oth. Ren.
Source: BP 2016 Energy Outlook

6. …projected substantial changes from a small base
over 2014-35
BP 2016 Energy Outlook
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydroelectricity
Nuclear
Biofuels
Wind/Solar/Oth. Ren.
Growth per year

7. Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)
Climate change affects the nexus
The case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and
IMPACT (SSP2)
Change in rainfed maize yields before
economic adjustments
Change in rainfed maize yields
after economic adjustments
Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

8. The SDGs can only be achieved if the Nexus is
considered

9.  Can sectorally and regionally coordinated WEF developments
increase economic benefits from water use in irrigation and
hydropower in the Eastern Nile basin?
o How would water allocation that maximizes economic benefit in
one sector only impact benefit obtained in other sectors?
o How would water allocation that maximizes economic benefit in
one country impact benefits of the other riparians?
Water-Energy-Food Nexus and the Eastern Nile

10. “Regional collaboration across WEF is essential”
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Strongly disagree
Egypt Ethiopia Sudan
WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017

11. “Ongoing regional cooperation is adequate to
minimize tradeoffs and exploit synergies”
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Strongly agree
Agree
Neutral
Disagree
Strongly disagree
Ethiopia Sudan Egypt
WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017

12. 1. Joint planning and investment in water resources management and
development
2. Invest on benefit sharing projects like storage dams for hydropower
generation in Ethiopia; large scale irrigation schemes in Sudan
3. Virtual water trade schemes
4. Adapt efficient water utilization strategies
o Improving irrigation efficiency
o Optimize the operation rules of dams in the basin
5. Watershed management especially in upstream catchments
6. Investment on trust building to consider the basin as one unit
irrespective of political boundaries.
What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile -
Ethiopia
WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017

13. 1. Invest in joint programs and projects
1. Building multi-purpose dams
2. Investment in the three sectors should be based on comparative
advantage.
1. Hydropower in Ethiopia, agriculture in South Sudan and Sudan, industry
and marketing in Egypt
2. Regional energy trade
3. Sustainability / enhancing the quality of resources;
3. Invest in watershed management.
What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile-
Sudan
WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017

14. 1. Invest in improving food security (such as adapting high yielding crops).
2. Coordinated action to maintain ecosystem sustainability.
3. Invest in renewable energy (solar and wind ….).
4. Research based collaboration between the countries.
5. Reduce losses by enhancing resource use efficiency
6. Joint investment on infrastructures based on comparative advantage.
7. Major coordinated research effort to assess upstream and downstream
costs and benefits from water resource developments.
What are potential joint investments across the Eastern Nile-
Egypt
WEF Nexus Survey – Berga et al. 2017

15. BN & WN JunctionC63
Sudan
Egypt
+
D46: Hassanb-Dongloa
D51: Middle Delta
D52: West Delta
D50: East Delta
D49: Middle Egypt
D48: Upper Egypt
D47: Toshka
D44: Khartoum-Tamaniat
D45: Tamaniat- HassanabC71
C70
C63
R24
C72
R25
R26
R27
C73
R28
R29
C74
R30
C75
R31
C76
C77
B1
B2
C78/
C79
B3
C80
C81
B4
B6
B5
C82
Nile DS HAD
Aswan I + Aswan II
Ensa
Nag Hammadi
Nile DS Naga Hammadi
Nile at Gaafra
Nile at Dagash
Nile US Assiut
Assiut
Nile at Hawatka DS Assuit
Nile at Baladela
M&I DDCairo
HAD
Nile at El Akhsas
Nile US HAD
Nile at Donglola
Merowe
Dal
Kajbar
Dagash
Shereig
Nile at Hassanab
Sabaloka
Nile at Tamaniat
Mediterranean Sea
Atbara Junction
E1
ModelSchematics,MainNileSub-basin
Source:BasedonENTRO,MSIOAStudy(2014)
Sample Node Link Network: Nile mainstem (ENMOS+)

16. Tradeoff Analysis Scenarios
Scenario Description
Full cooperation Basin-wide system optimization
Non-cooperation
Sectoral tradeoffs Sectoral tradeoff analysis which assumes no cooperation
between sectors
- HPP Hydropower is prioritized over irrigation
- IRRP Irrigation is prioritized over hydropower
Transboundary tradeoffs Cross-country tradeoff analysis which assumes no
cooperation between countries
- ETHP Ethiopia is prioritized over Sudan and Egypt
- SUDP Sudan is prioritized over Ethiopia and Egypt
- EGYP Egypt is prioritized over Sudan and Ethiopia
Berga et al. In preparation

17. Sectoral tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when HP
is prioritized
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total
Total benefit (Million USD)
System optimization Hydropower prioritized Irrigation prioritized
Berga et al. In preparation

18. Transboundary tradeoff analysis: Total benefits lower when
Egypt is prioritized
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ethiopia Sudan+South Sudan Egypt Grand total
Total benefit (Million USD)
System optimization Ethiopia prioritized Sudan prioritized Egypt prioritized
Berga et al. In preparation

19. Conclusions
 There are considerable sectoral and transboundary NEXUS tradeoffs in
the Eastern Nile Basin
 Total economic benefits in the basin are lower in the case of
noncooperation (sectoral prioritization)
 A hydropower first strategy reduces total economic benefit. If investment
in agricultural R&D increase in proportion with investment in
hydropower, a focus on hydropower is even less advantageous, as
other renewables (wind and solar have substantial potential in the
region)
 Energy and agricultural commodity trade can generate win-win benefits
for the Nile Basin but a change in existing agricultural commodity trade
regimes in the Eastern Nile is unlikely to take place in the near to
medium future