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Cracking the Code of Human Behavior
1.
Cracking the Code
of Human Behavior Dan Hill, Ph.D. – President, Sensory Logic Austin, TX; May 7, 2013 iMedia Agency Summit © 2013. All Rights Reserved.
2.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. WHAT’S BIG DATA’S TRUE SCOPE? Part 1
3.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 3 How Big Is “Big Data”?
4.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Big Volume - Sources – Information captured by sensors 4 • Extremely large datasets generated from technology practices, such as: – Social media activity reports – Mobile phone call detail records – Operational technology – Web server logs – Internet clickstream data – Streaming sources BIG DATA
5.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 5 How Small Is “Big Data”? How Small Is “Big Data”?
6.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Irrational Rationality . . . 6
7.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 7 How Is “Big Data” Big & Small At The Same Time?
8.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Moving Beyond Won’t or Can’t Say 8 95% of mental activity is subconscious. What % of mental activity is subconscious? Thoughts & Self-reported Feelings Claims/Text Intuitive Emotions Imagery/Sounds Retail Cues Product Usage Persuasion & Loyalty
9.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. SENSE – FEEL – think- DO 9 ©Sensory Logic 2012
10.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Irrational Rationality . . . Limited Data Need more data points to make the right decision 10
11.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Testing Issues 71% 44% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Not Pre-tested Pre-tested Effectiveness Success Rate % “Cases with favorable pre-testing results did significantly worse in market than those that were not tested.” Binet and Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007
12.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Step Closer… Step Ahead. sensory emotive non-verbal conscious verbal rational subconscious rational verbal conscious Traditional Economics Behavioral Economicsvs.
13.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. QUANTIFYING EMOTIONS: FACIAL CODING Part 2
14.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 14 How Can “Big Data” Be Bigger, As In More On Target?
15.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. The Future of Marketing 15 Information Talking Points On-Message On-Emotion Feeling Points Satisfaction 20th Century 21st Century
16.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Mona Lisa 16
17.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Mona Lisa 17
18.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. History of Facial Coding 1872 • Scientific Theory: Charles Darwin – Universal – Spontaneous – Abundant • Theory Refined: Paul Ekman, Ph.D. – 43 facial muscles, express universal core emotions • Business Inventor: Dan Hill, Ph.D. – Pioneer in using facial coding to create emotional metrics – U.S. Patent Portfolio Science Psychology Business 1965 1998
19.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. History of Facial Coding 2005 2009-2011 Which tool will have the most transformative impact on MR? “The reviewers felt that neuroscience suggests that neurological methods (fMRI)and facial coding are best suited to assess the emotional valence of viewer reactions” - The ARF NeuroStandards Collaboration Project 2011 2010
20.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Sales Correlation to Super Bowl TV Spots Electroencephalography (EEG) Facial Coding USA Today .0003 EEG .232 Facial Coding .6112 Seventeen automotive TV spots were analyzed over the past 3 years. Rating
21.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. FROM IDENTITY TO EMOTION RECOGNITION Part 3
22.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 22 Facial Coding Humanizes “Big Data”
23.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Customization Smart Digital KioskSmart Billboard Targets Women
24.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Converging Forces 24
25.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. FROM FLEETING TO ENDURING: PERSONALITY Part 4
26.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. 26 Big, Deep Data: Facial Coding & Big 5 Factor
27.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. The Problem In general, “evidence indicates that demographic measures, outside of education, are not an accurate predictor of consumer behavior.” Sales/Marketing Management (11/09) Only 15% of major companies surveyed derive real value from creating segmentation typology. (Marakon 2006) Only 6% of marketers have excellent knowledge of customers, 51% have fair to little knowledge. (CMO Council 2008)
28.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Solution: Big 5 Traits Model “Surprisingly, most marketers have no idea how well the Big 5 can predict consumer behavior. The Big 5 predict attitudes, values, self- concepts, and motivations.”
29.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Myers-Briggs Inadequate 29
30.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. The Elements 30 “The fifth element is mud.” -Napoleon Bonaparte
31.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Male Version: Big 5 Examples Openness Conscientiousness Extraversion Agreeableness Neuroticism
32.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Traits by State • States that vote Democratic tend to be higher on openness and extraversion, vs. conscientiousness for Republicans Neuroticism Openness Extraversion Source: Gosling, Snoop: What Your Stuff Says About You
33.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. White vs. Wheat Bread
34.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Whole Wheat Supporters 0% 6% 0% 0% 6% 12% 10% 0% 55% 12% 0% 50% 100% True Smile Robust Smile Weak Smile Micro Smile Surprise Skeptical Dislike Sadness Frustration Anxiety Emotional Profile 3 – Healthy Whole Wheaters 4 – Sophisticated Whole Wheaters 12% 88% 0% 36% 9% 0% 0% 0% 21% 9% 18% 6% 0% 50% 100% True Smile Robust Smile Weak Smile Micro Smile Surprise Skeptical Dislike Sadness Frustration Anxiety Emotional Profile 45% 55% The Healthy Whole Wheaters are most notable for having 2x more frustration than any other segment. Sophisticated Whole Wheaters, in contrast, are all about enjoyment.
35.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. White Bread Supporters 0% 0% 13% 0% 0% 7% 23% 21% 29% 7% 0% 50% 100% True Smile Robust Smile Weak Smile Micro Smile Surprise Skeptical Dislike Sadness Frustration Anxiety Emotional Profile 13% 87% 1 – White Bread Traditionalists 2 – White Bread Neutralists 0% 4% 15% 0% 1% 4% 39% 5% 27% 6% 0% 50% 100% True Smile Robust Smile Weak Smile Micro Smile Surprise Skeptical Dislike Sadness Frustration Anxiety Emotional Profile 20% 80% Traditionalists exhibit 2x more sadness than any of the other three segments. Meanwhile, the Neutralists are notable for showing 1/3rd more dislike than any other segment.
36.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. SUMMARY Part 5
37.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Big Data: To Be Successful . . . • Walmart’s transaction databases – 2.5 petrabytes • 40 billion Facebook photos • Amount of digital information increases 10x every 5 years 37 • Walmart’s transaction databases – 2.5 petrabytes • 40 billion Facebook photos • Amount of digital information increases 10x every 5 years
38.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. Go Deeper Than Online Behavior or Social Media Chatter 38 Emotions Personality Traits Values Immediate Lifetime
39.
© 2013. All
Rights Reserved. And Then You and the Client Can Be (Really) Smiling True Fake Fake Fake True Fake True Fake True Fake Fake Fake True True True
Notas del editor
Add four elements and fly in Napoleon’s face and the quote
Add four elements and fly in Napoleon’s face and the quote
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