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Acrolein and Adult Asthma in a Nationally
Representative Sample of the United States



                         B. Rey de Castro, Sc.D.
                                      Statistician

                          before the
          International Society of Exposure Science
                        Baltimore, MD
                      October 24, 2011
       National Center for Health Statistics
       Office of Analysis & Epidemiology, Special Projects Branch
Acrolein
   Aldehyde
   Hazardous Air Pollutant subject to Clean Air Act
Ubiquitous
   Combustion
       Tobacco
       Mobile sources, especially diesel
       Airports
       Wood heating & forest fires
       Industrial boilers
   Indoor air pollutant
     Cooking
     Smoking
Ubiquitous
   Largest industrial uses
     Synthesis of acrylic acid
     Biocide
   Two biggest emitting facilities in Alvin and Diboll, TX
   Next 8 biggest: IL, VA, NE, IA, WI, KS
   Top 10 responsible for 90 percent of TRI emissions.
2005 TRI: Acrolein
Exposure
   Inhalation
     Combustion by-products
     Cigarette smoke
     Cooking smoke
   Food
     Heating carbohydrates, lipids, certain amino acids
   Formed physiologically
     Oxidative stress
     Polyamine metabolism
Highly Potent Irritant
   Acute and chronic (non-cancer) effects
   Respiratory congestion
   Eye, nose, throat
   Skin
   Especially sensitive
     Asthmatics
     Allergy sufferers
Regulatory Ambient Exposure Levels
                                                         LC50 750
                                                 1000

                                                  100
Log10 Ambient Acrolein Concentration [mg/m3]




                                                                                          NIOSH IDLH
                                                   10                                         4.6

                                                                    LOAEL                              NIOSH STEL
                                                                     0.9                                  0.8       OSHA PEL ACGIH Ceiling
                                                    1                                                               NIOSH REL EPA AEGL2 8h
                                                                                                                       0.25       0.23
                                                                                                                                          EPA AEGL1 8h
                                                   0.1                                                                                        0.07




                                                  0.01

                                                 0.001

                                                0.0001
                                                                            RfC 0.00002

                                               0.00001
                                                            1         2         3             4            5            6          7           8
Ambient Measurement Very Difficult
   Highly reactive
   Ambient formation
     Even within samplers
   Sensitive to
     Sampler preparation
     Sampler type
     Time elapsed from preparation to analysis
   Inter-laboratory variability in analysis
Current Ambient Methods
   US EPA
       TO-11a: canister sampler
       TO-15: cartridge sampler
       TO-15 superseding TO-11a
       Resolution: hours — days
       TO-15a still problematic
       Subject of ongoing improvement research
   Near real-time monitor
     Recently developed
     Quantum cascade laser IR absorption
Therefore,
 no epidemiologic
research on acrolein
Alternative 1: Exposure Biomarkers
   Urine
   Mercapturic acid metabolites
   Analytical methods recently developed at CDC
     Poster here at ISES 2011: Abstract 1120986
     By Udeni Alwis, Sc.D.      uAlwis@cdc.gov
   Not the subject of this talk
Alternative 2: Modeled Exposure
   US EPA National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment 2005
   Nationwide estimate of chronic inhalation exposure
     Census tract resolution
   Hazardous air pollutants & diesel particulate matter
   Diesel particulate matter
   Cancer and non-cancer health effects
NATA 2005
   EPA says:
     Acrolein responsible for ―about 75 percent of the nationwide
      average non-cancer hazard‖
   Remarkable for air toxic with no epidemiology
Now that we have
exposure estimates,
what if we could get
health effects data?
Nationwide Health Effects
   National Health Interview Survey 2000 — 2009
   Content
     Health conditions and behaviors
     Access to health services
   Representative sample of
     United States , nationwide
     Non-institutionalized
     Civilian
   Cross-sectional prevalence
National Health Interview Survey
   Interview
     Face to face
     Computer-aided
   Data
     N ~ 40,000 households (~87,000 individuals) annually
     Initiated in 1957
Multistage Population Sampling
Complex Survey Design
   Cross-sectional
   Use of weighting, clustering, and stratification
   Oversampling
   Variance estimation complicated
     Special software: SUDAAN™
     Taylor series linearization method (GEE)
NHIS 2000 — 2009
   10 years NHIS data
   Adults 18 years-old and over
   Self-reported asthma attack in previous 12 months
     Has a doctor ever told you that you have asthma?
       AND
     Have you had an asthma attack in the last 12 months?
   Standard CDC definition for evaluating national
    asthma trends
NHIS Confidential Data
   Aim: geographic merge with NATA 2005
   Data not for public use
     Geocoded NHIS subject residence
     Urban/rural residence
   NCHS Research Data Centers (RDCs)
     Access non-public use data
     Confidential data merges
     Locations nationwide
NATA-NHIS Data Merge

 NATA:                             NHIS:
Acrolein                           Adult
Exposure                          Asthma
                  Merge by
                   Census
                    Tract




                  Merged
                  NATA-
                 NHIS Data
NATA 2005 & NHIS 2000-2009
   Sample size: 209, 365 subjects
     72.8 percent of 287,530 subjects
   Census tracts: 14,936
     22.6 percent of 66,029 tracts
   Asthma attacks in last 12 months: 3.98 percent subjects
NATA 2005 & NHIS 2000—2009
   White: 71.5 percent
   Male: 48.8 percent
   Age: ≥18 years-old
   Never smokers: 55.5 percent
   ≥High school graduate: 83.9 percent
   Insured: 83.7 percent
   Access to care: 85.3 percent
   Urban: 74.6 percent
Population-Weighted Outdoor Acrolein Exposure

                         [µg/m3]
    Mean (SE)            3.34E-2 (3.94E-4)
    Geometric Mean (GSE) 2.27E-2 (2.43E-4)
Population-Weighted Outdoor Acrolein Exposure

                         [µg/m3]
        Median (IQR)     2.45E-2 (3.11E-2)
        5th Percentile   4.97E-3
        10th             6.62E-3
        25th             1.22E-2
        75th             4.34E-2
        90th             6.87E-2
        95th             8.78E-2
Logistic Regression Model
   Binary outcome: asthma attack last 12 months
     NHIS 2000 — 2009
     Self-report
   Predictor of interest: acrolein quintile
     NATA 2005
     Inhalation exposure concentration at census tract
Potential Asthma Confounders
   Race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance
    coverage, access to healthcare, urban/rural
    residence, survey year, survey quarter
   Based on prior NHIS research on asthma trends
Complex Survey Variance Estimation
   Taylor series linearization (GEE)
   Survey sample weights 2000 — 2009
   Indicators for survey stratum and PSU
pOR by Acrolein Quintile
      1.30


      1.20


      1.10
pOR




      1.00


      0.90


      0.80
             1        2        3          4   5
                          Exposure Quintile
Primary Result
   At highest quintile of acrolein exposure
     0.0551 – 0.457 µg/m3
     pOR 1.11 [1.00:1.23] adult asthma
   11 percent increase in adult asthma prevalence
   Controlling for
    race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance
    coverage, access to healthcare, urban/rural
    residence, survey year, survey quarter
   Reference concentration (RfC) = 0.02 µg/m3
Stratified Analysis by Residence
   Urban at highest quintile of acrolein exposure
     pOR 1.13 [1.00:1.29] adult asthma
   Rural at highest quintile of acrolein exposure
     pOR 1.08 [0.80:1.44] adult asthma
   Controlling for
    race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance
    coverage, access to healthcare, survey year, survey
    quarter
Confounders
   Statistically significant
     Race, sex, age, smoking, education, access to
      healthcare, urban/rural residence, survey year
   Not statistically significant
     Insurance coverage, survey quarter
Strengths

        Inexpensive data collection and design
        Large sample
        National geographic coverage
        Census tract resolution
        Generalizable to US population




38
Limitations

        Uncertainty of NATA exposure estimates
        Merge bias
        Cross-sectional
        Acrolein from indoor air, food
        Effect estimation in smaller areas severely limited




39
Feasible to conduct
  national epidemiologic
  analysis with modeled
chronic exposure estimates
        for air toxics
First demonstration of
acrolein’s adverse effect
 on general population
Approaches to Acrolein Exposure Assessment


                Modeled


                Exposure
               Assessment



   Measurement            Biomarkers
Acknowledgements
   Jenifer Parker, Ph.D.
     Chief, NCHS OAE Special Projects Branch
     Merged EPA air quality data with
        • NHIS 1986 — 2005
        • NHANES 1986 — 1994
        • National Hospital Discharge Survey 1999 — 2005
   CDC Guest Researcher Program
     Research conducted in my spare time
Acrolein PubMed Citations
250



200



150



100



 50



  0
      2005   2006     2007      2008      2009   2010    2011 to
                                                        October 19
Current Research
   Oral, inhalation exposure
   Physiologic efects
       Acute lung injury, COPD
       Multiple sclerosis, myelin damage
       Alzheimer’s disease
       Cardiomyopathy
Current Research
   In vitro
       Oxidative stress
       Apoptosis
       DNA adduction
       Inflammation
       Mutagenicity
Special Issue on Acrolein
   September 2011
Future
   Tremendous potential to explore hypotheses and
    prioritize risk
   NATA 2005
     177 air toxics and diesel particulate matter
   NHIS 2000 — 2009
     Great variety of health outcomes
   Merges with other data
     Medicare enrollment and claims
     National Death Index
     Social Security benefits
B. Rey de Castro, Sc.D.
      Centers for Disease Control
National Center for Environmental Health
             Atlanta, Georgia

                 rdecastro@cdc.gov
                  +1 770 488 0162
                 www.slideshare.net



      National Center for Health Statistics
      Office of Analysis & Epidemiology, Special Projects Branch

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Acrolein and Adult Asthma in a Nationally Representative Sample of the United States

  • 1. Acrolein and Adult Asthma in a Nationally Representative Sample of the United States B. Rey de Castro, Sc.D. Statistician before the International Society of Exposure Science Baltimore, MD October 24, 2011 National Center for Health Statistics Office of Analysis & Epidemiology, Special Projects Branch
  • 2. Acrolein  Aldehyde  Hazardous Air Pollutant subject to Clean Air Act
  • 3. Ubiquitous  Combustion  Tobacco  Mobile sources, especially diesel  Airports  Wood heating & forest fires  Industrial boilers  Indoor air pollutant  Cooking  Smoking
  • 4. Ubiquitous  Largest industrial uses  Synthesis of acrylic acid  Biocide  Two biggest emitting facilities in Alvin and Diboll, TX  Next 8 biggest: IL, VA, NE, IA, WI, KS  Top 10 responsible for 90 percent of TRI emissions.
  • 6. Exposure  Inhalation  Combustion by-products  Cigarette smoke  Cooking smoke  Food  Heating carbohydrates, lipids, certain amino acids  Formed physiologically  Oxidative stress  Polyamine metabolism
  • 7. Highly Potent Irritant  Acute and chronic (non-cancer) effects  Respiratory congestion  Eye, nose, throat  Skin  Especially sensitive  Asthmatics  Allergy sufferers
  • 8. Regulatory Ambient Exposure Levels LC50 750 1000 100 Log10 Ambient Acrolein Concentration [mg/m3] NIOSH IDLH 10 4.6 LOAEL NIOSH STEL 0.9 0.8 OSHA PEL ACGIH Ceiling 1 NIOSH REL EPA AEGL2 8h 0.25 0.23 EPA AEGL1 8h 0.1 0.07 0.01 0.001 0.0001 RfC 0.00002 0.00001 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
  • 9. Ambient Measurement Very Difficult  Highly reactive  Ambient formation  Even within samplers  Sensitive to  Sampler preparation  Sampler type  Time elapsed from preparation to analysis  Inter-laboratory variability in analysis
  • 10. Current Ambient Methods  US EPA  TO-11a: canister sampler  TO-15: cartridge sampler  TO-15 superseding TO-11a  Resolution: hours — days  TO-15a still problematic  Subject of ongoing improvement research  Near real-time monitor  Recently developed  Quantum cascade laser IR absorption
  • 12. Alternative 1: Exposure Biomarkers  Urine  Mercapturic acid metabolites  Analytical methods recently developed at CDC  Poster here at ISES 2011: Abstract 1120986  By Udeni Alwis, Sc.D. uAlwis@cdc.gov  Not the subject of this talk
  • 13. Alternative 2: Modeled Exposure  US EPA National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment 2005  Nationwide estimate of chronic inhalation exposure  Census tract resolution  Hazardous air pollutants & diesel particulate matter  Diesel particulate matter  Cancer and non-cancer health effects
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16. NATA 2005  EPA says:  Acrolein responsible for ―about 75 percent of the nationwide average non-cancer hazard‖  Remarkable for air toxic with no epidemiology
  • 17. Now that we have exposure estimates, what if we could get health effects data?
  • 18. Nationwide Health Effects  National Health Interview Survey 2000 — 2009  Content  Health conditions and behaviors  Access to health services  Representative sample of  United States , nationwide  Non-institutionalized  Civilian  Cross-sectional prevalence
  • 19. National Health Interview Survey  Interview  Face to face  Computer-aided  Data  N ~ 40,000 households (~87,000 individuals) annually  Initiated in 1957
  • 21. Complex Survey Design  Cross-sectional  Use of weighting, clustering, and stratification  Oversampling  Variance estimation complicated  Special software: SUDAAN™  Taylor series linearization method (GEE)
  • 22. NHIS 2000 — 2009  10 years NHIS data  Adults 18 years-old and over  Self-reported asthma attack in previous 12 months  Has a doctor ever told you that you have asthma? AND  Have you had an asthma attack in the last 12 months?  Standard CDC definition for evaluating national asthma trends
  • 23. NHIS Confidential Data  Aim: geographic merge with NATA 2005  Data not for public use  Geocoded NHIS subject residence  Urban/rural residence  NCHS Research Data Centers (RDCs)  Access non-public use data  Confidential data merges  Locations nationwide
  • 24. NATA-NHIS Data Merge NATA: NHIS: Acrolein Adult Exposure Asthma Merge by Census Tract Merged NATA- NHIS Data
  • 25. NATA 2005 & NHIS 2000-2009  Sample size: 209, 365 subjects  72.8 percent of 287,530 subjects  Census tracts: 14,936  22.6 percent of 66,029 tracts  Asthma attacks in last 12 months: 3.98 percent subjects
  • 26. NATA 2005 & NHIS 2000—2009  White: 71.5 percent  Male: 48.8 percent  Age: ≥18 years-old  Never smokers: 55.5 percent  ≥High school graduate: 83.9 percent  Insured: 83.7 percent  Access to care: 85.3 percent  Urban: 74.6 percent
  • 27. Population-Weighted Outdoor Acrolein Exposure [µg/m3] Mean (SE) 3.34E-2 (3.94E-4) Geometric Mean (GSE) 2.27E-2 (2.43E-4)
  • 28. Population-Weighted Outdoor Acrolein Exposure [µg/m3] Median (IQR) 2.45E-2 (3.11E-2) 5th Percentile 4.97E-3 10th 6.62E-3 25th 1.22E-2 75th 4.34E-2 90th 6.87E-2 95th 8.78E-2
  • 29. Logistic Regression Model  Binary outcome: asthma attack last 12 months  NHIS 2000 — 2009  Self-report  Predictor of interest: acrolein quintile  NATA 2005  Inhalation exposure concentration at census tract
  • 30. Potential Asthma Confounders  Race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance coverage, access to healthcare, urban/rural residence, survey year, survey quarter  Based on prior NHIS research on asthma trends
  • 31. Complex Survey Variance Estimation  Taylor series linearization (GEE)  Survey sample weights 2000 — 2009  Indicators for survey stratum and PSU
  • 32. pOR by Acrolein Quintile 1.30 1.20 1.10 pOR 1.00 0.90 0.80 1 2 3 4 5 Exposure Quintile
  • 33. Primary Result  At highest quintile of acrolein exposure  0.0551 – 0.457 µg/m3  pOR 1.11 [1.00:1.23] adult asthma  11 percent increase in adult asthma prevalence  Controlling for race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance coverage, access to healthcare, urban/rural residence, survey year, survey quarter  Reference concentration (RfC) = 0.02 µg/m3
  • 34. Stratified Analysis by Residence  Urban at highest quintile of acrolein exposure  pOR 1.13 [1.00:1.29] adult asthma  Rural at highest quintile of acrolein exposure  pOR 1.08 [0.80:1.44] adult asthma  Controlling for race, sex, age, smoking, education, insurance coverage, access to healthcare, survey year, survey quarter
  • 35. Confounders  Statistically significant  Race, sex, age, smoking, education, access to healthcare, urban/rural residence, survey year  Not statistically significant  Insurance coverage, survey quarter
  • 36. Strengths  Inexpensive data collection and design  Large sample  National geographic coverage  Census tract resolution  Generalizable to US population 38
  • 37. Limitations  Uncertainty of NATA exposure estimates  Merge bias  Cross-sectional  Acrolein from indoor air, food  Effect estimation in smaller areas severely limited 39
  • 38. Feasible to conduct national epidemiologic analysis with modeled chronic exposure estimates for air toxics
  • 39. First demonstration of acrolein’s adverse effect on general population
  • 40. Approaches to Acrolein Exposure Assessment Modeled Exposure Assessment Measurement Biomarkers
  • 41. Acknowledgements  Jenifer Parker, Ph.D.  Chief, NCHS OAE Special Projects Branch  Merged EPA air quality data with • NHIS 1986 — 2005 • NHANES 1986 — 1994 • National Hospital Discharge Survey 1999 — 2005  CDC Guest Researcher Program  Research conducted in my spare time
  • 42. Acrolein PubMed Citations 250 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 to October 19
  • 43. Current Research  Oral, inhalation exposure  Physiologic efects  Acute lung injury, COPD  Multiple sclerosis, myelin damage  Alzheimer’s disease  Cardiomyopathy
  • 44. Current Research  In vitro  Oxidative stress  Apoptosis  DNA adduction  Inflammation  Mutagenicity
  • 45. Special Issue on Acrolein September 2011
  • 46. Future  Tremendous potential to explore hypotheses and prioritize risk  NATA 2005  177 air toxics and diesel particulate matter  NHIS 2000 — 2009  Great variety of health outcomes  Merges with other data  Medicare enrollment and claims  National Death Index  Social Security benefits
  • 47. B. Rey de Castro, Sc.D. Centers for Disease Control National Center for Environmental Health Atlanta, Georgia rdecastro@cdc.gov +1 770 488 0162 www.slideshare.net National Center for Health Statistics Office of Analysis & Epidemiology, Special Projects Branch

Notas del editor

  1. Acrolein is used as a precursor in chemical manufacture.Product of combustion, including tobacco and petroleum.Used also as a biocide.Indoor air pollutant attributable to off-gassing from building materials.
  2. Acrolein is used as a precursor in chemical manufacture.Product of combustion, including tobacco and petroleum.Used also as a biocide.Indoor air pollutant attributable to off-gassing from building materials.
  3. Polyamines are aliphatic cations present in all cells. In normal cells, polyamine levels are intricately controlled by biosynthetic and catabolic enzymes. The biosynthetic enzymes are ornithine decarboxylase, S-adenosylmethionine decarboxylase, spermidine synthase, and spermine synthase. The catabolic enzymes include spermidine/spermineacetyltransferase, flavin containing polyamine oxidase, copper containing diamine oxidase, and possibly other amine oxidases. Multiple abnormalities in the control of polyamine metabolism and uptake might be responsible for increased levels of polyamines in cancer cells as compared to that of normal cells.
  4. Acrolein was even weaponized for battlefield use in World War I.
  5. LC50: lethal concentration 50 percent, acte toxicityLOAEL: lowest observed adverse effect levelRfC: reference concentration (inhalation, lifetime, calculated from LOAEL)IDLH: immediately dangerous to life and healthSTEL: short-term exposure limitPEL: permissable exposure limit (8h TWA, enforceable)REL: recommended exposure limit (nonenforceable recommendations)AEGL1,2: acute exposure guidelines (notable effects in general and susceptible populations)
  6. Acrolein was even weaponized for battlefield use in World War I.
  7. Acrolein was even weaponized for battlefield use in World War I.
  8. NATA provides national estimates of ambient concentration and exposure for nearly 200 air toxics from a comprehensive list of diverse sources.HEM3 (AERMOD): point, onroad mobile, off-road mobile sourcesASPEN: Non-point sourcesCMAQ: secondary formation and decay
  9. HEM3 (AERMOD): point, onroad mobile, off-road mobile sourcesASPEN: Non-point sourcesCMAQ: secondary formation and decaySources of data are the NEI and monitoring data, which is run through atmospheric dispersion models to estimate ambient concentrations at the census tract level.Ambient concentration estimates are then run through an inhalation exposure model to estimate exposure concentrations at the census tract level.NATA serves as a risk screening tool with high spatial resolution.About 66,000 census tracts.
  10. NATA provides national estimates of ambient concentration and exposure for nearly 200 air toxics from a comprehensive list of diverse sources.HEM3 (AERMOD): point, onroad mobile, off-road mobile sourcesASPEN: Non-point sourcesCMAQ: secondary formation and decay
  11. NATA provides national estimates of ambient concentration and exposure for nearly 200 air toxics from a comprehensive list of diverse sources.HEM3 (AERMOD): point, onroad mobile, off-road mobile sourcesASPEN: Non-point sourcesCMAQ: secondary formation and decay
  12. Here is a map of the NATA 2005 respiratory hazard index estimates for all air toxics across census tracts. This is not specific to acrolein.Where the hazard index is greater than one, the census tract’s exposure exceeds the toxicologicnoncancer reference concentration RfC.Both urban and rural census tracts appear to be at risk.
  13. Based on NATA exposure and toxicologic reference concentrations (RfC), EPA found that acrolein is responsible for 75 percent of respiratory noncancer health effects nationwide.This is remarkable for an air toxic with strikingly little human health effects research.
  14. 10 years of data comprising 287,530 surveyed subjects representing a population of 1.6 billion people.
  15. WeightingThe statistical weight of a sampled person is the number of people in the population that the person represents. Weights derived fromSelection probabilitiesResponse ratesPost-stratification adjustment e.g., gender, education, income, regionStratificationPopulation divided before sampling into disjoint, exhaustive groups (strata)Members termed primary sampling units (PSUs) Independent samples are taken in each strataStrata formed by similar geographic areas  e.g., NHANES: partition US counties into 49 strata based on region and economic/racial characteristicsSample 2 counties (PSUs) from each strataClusteringPersons residing in a small area may have similar characteristicsThus, responses of subjects in small area are potentially correlated Correlation must be accounted for in the analysis Survey analysis programs do this through strata/PSU informationVariance EstimationLinearization: Uses a Taylor series expansion to estimate variance of non-linear estimators Default method for most programsRequires stratification and PSU information
  16. Answers “Yes” to:Have a doctor ever told you that you have asthma?Have you had an asthma attack in the last 12 months?
  17. Sample Size: 209,365/287,530 (72.8 weighted percent)Census Tracts: 14,936/66,029Current asthmatic with 12-month asthma attack (weighted): 3.98 (0.05) percent (SE)
  18. Study population (weighted percent)
  19. Acrolein Exposure Quintile1st: 1.38E-4 – 1.09E-2 µg/m32nd: 1.09E-2 – 2.14E-2 µg/m33rd: 2.14E-2 – 3.40E-2 µg/m34th: 3.40E-2 – 5.51E-2 µg/m35th: 5.51E-2 – 4.57E-1 µg/m3 pORRef.1.01 [0.92:1.11]1.01 [0.92:1.11]0.98 [0.89:1.09]1.11 [1.00:1.23]