1) Recent CO2 emissions have exceeded levels needed to keep global temperature rise below 2°C, and major new policies are needed to change this trajectory. 2) Global energy efficiency has declined in recent years, moving in the wrong direction for energy security and climate change goals. 3) In the US from 2006-2011, natural gas and renewables like wind and solar contributed most to new electricity generation. 4) Solar PV and wind led global non-hydro renewable capacity additions from 2009-2011, but future growth depends mainly on government policies. 5) The power sector will focus on renewables investments from 2011-2035, with wind, solar, and hydro making up over half of new power

1. WEO-2012: Current Trends in
Renewable Energy Markets
Dr. Fatih BIROL
IEA Chief Economist
Energy Business Council, 12 June, Paris
© OECD/IEA 2012

2. Recent CO2 emissions development
2.0 34
Annual CO2 emissions change (Gt CO2)
Gt CO2
Maximum allowed emissions in 450 scenario Non-OECD
32 OECD
1.5
Global annual CO2 emissions
30 (right axis)
1.0
28
0.5
26
0
24
-0.5 22
-1.0 20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
The door to the 2°C trajectory is about to be closed unless major & bold new policies are introduced
© OECD/IEA 2012

3. Energy efficiency is crucial for
energy security & climate change
1.0%
Annual change in global energy intensity
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.5%
1971- 1981- 1991- 2001- 2009 2010
1980 1990 2000 2008
Global energy efficiency development is going in the wrong direction
© OECD/IEA 2012

4. US electricity generation growth, 2006-2011
Natural gas
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
TWh
Over the past 5 years, natural gas & renewables were the leading sources
of incremental electricity generation in the United States
© OECD/IEA 2012

5. Recent trend in global non-hydro
renewable capacity additions
90 45%
Capacity additions (GW)
Other renewables
80 40% Biomass
Solar PV
70 35%
Wind
60 30%
50 25% % of non-hydro renewables
On total capacity additions
40 20%
(right axis)
30 15%
20 10%
10 5%
0 0%
2009 2010 2011
Solar photovoltaic and wind lead the way but the future of renewables
hinges mainly on government policies
© OECD/IEA 2012

6. Power sector investment
focuses on renewables
Investment in new power plants and infrastructure
in the WEO-2011 New Policies Scenario
Oil 0.5% Nuclear 7%
Gas
Coal 5%
Other 6%
11%
Solar PV 7%
Renewables
35% Hydro 8%
Transmission
& distribution
Wind 13%
42%
2011-2035: $16.9 trillion
Renewables make up 60% of investment in new power plants, led by wind, solar PV & hydro,
even though they represent only half of the capacity additions
© OECD/IEA 2012

7. WEO-2012 work on renewables
 A full update of renewables energy projections by technology,
sector and region to 2035 in three scenarios
 Quantification of total incentives to support renewables
in the power generation and transport sectors
 Impact of the renewable support schemes on electricity end-user prices
 Additional investments in electricity grids and capacity requirements
to maintain the adequacy of electricity systems
 A new biomass supply model to estimate: global trade, development
of biofuels, and the contribution of biomass to the global energy mix
© OECD/IEA 2012