Effects of climate change on planet ocean, IPCC 5th assessment report and beyond
1. H.O Pörtner
AR5 WGII CLA CH. 6, Ocean Systems,
ocean products in TS and SPM, CC-Boxes, Synthesis Report
Co-Chair WGII AR6
UNFCCC Art. 2:
......prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference....
............allow ecosystems to adapt naturally...
............ensure that food production is not threatened...
............enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner
Effects of climate change on planet ocean,
IPCC 5th assessment report and beyond
Decision making under uncertainty
2. Historical
change in SST
RCP 2.6
RCP 8.5
projected
... warmingAccording to emission scenarios oceans are:
CMIP5 model runs
Gattuso et al., 2015
WGI Figure 6.30
... losing oxygen
Historical projected
committed
climate change
Historical Projections
...acidifying
committed
4. Verons 2009
Warm water coral reefs under combined
pressures at 0.8°C above pre-industrial:
Vulnerable ecosystems identified in AR5
Observations:
Loss of live coral cover
due to various drivers
WGII Box CC-CR
Great Barrier Reef
0.8°C
2016
OBSERVATIONS
5. CHANGE IN MAXIMUM CATCH POTENTIAL (2051-2060 COMPARED TO 2001-2010, SRES A1B, 2°C warming of global surface T
0.7°C warmer Sea Surface T)
<50% -21 – 50% -6 – 20% -1 – 5% No data 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%
WGII, 6-14, SPM.6, SYR 2.6
2°CProjections
2051-60: fish and invertebrate biomass and diversity displaced and reduced at
low latitudes
Unabated Ocean Warming by 2050
6. REDUCED HABITAT range of marine fishes
and invertebrates due to
thermal constraints combined with oxygen loss
in the oceans
by ~20% overall
Northern High
Latitudes:
by ~40%
% Decline in
Metabolic Index
F
(= routine
metabolic scope
in marine
animals)
>>2°C
2071-2100, 0-200m
IPCC Earth System Model mean, RCP8.5 scenario
C. Deutsch, A. Ferrel, B. Seibel, H.-O. Pörtner, R.B. Huey, Science 2015
TO BE
ASSESSED IN
AR6
Projections
7. WGII, SPM.6
>>2 °C
Unabated Ocean acidification affecting mollusk and crustacean fisheries,
and coastal protection by coral reefs
.....risks enhanced by warming extremes
8. Risk assessment IPCC WGII: How to widely compare climate impacts?LTGG
0.8
2
1.5
4
°C
A role for natural marine
systems to guide the
setting of long-term
global goals (LTGG,
relative to preindustrial),
considering levels of risk 0.8°C
1.5°C
2°C
4°C
LTGG
...comparing LTGGs,
identifying... Key risks of impacts
.... Risks to be avoided
Level of
additional
risk due to
climate
change IPCC WGII
9. Additional risk due to climate change
AN EXAMPLE: COMBINED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE DRIVERS:
ocean warming and acidification,
a comparative view across LTGGs based on risk
0.6°C~
~ 4°C
LTGG
2°C~
1.5°C~
1.5°C
vs. 2°C
vs. >>2°C
SYR 2.5
10. Magnan et al. 2016 Nature Climate Change
Linking to INDCs and Global StocktakeOCEAN RISKS
2.7
1.5
>4
3.5
0.8
TO BE ASSESSED IN AR6
°C
ServicesBiota
11. The maps show areas to be flooded with sea levels rising by 30 cm, 50 cm and 1 m
respectively - Photo: Courtesy of the Vietnam Academy for Water Resources
12. Impacts on coastal systems
Vietnam is expected to face very high impacts and associated annual
damage and adaptation costs of several percentage points of GDP. The
highest vulnerability comes from sea level rise and associated impacts.
• Impacts: Sea-level rise, coral bleaching, ocean acidification, reduction in
tourism arrival (high confidence), increased frequency of natural disasters
like typhoons and floods.
• Specific regions at high risk in Vietnam are areas exposed to sea level rise
and extreme events and with concentrated multidimensional poverty.
Ha Long Bay with high vulnerability of sea level rise. It is located on in northeast Vietnam, is known for its
emerald waters and thousands of towering limestone islands topped by rainforests.
13. Increasing risk
associated with
high sea level
beyond 2100
under
RCPs > 2.6
SYR 2.5
1.5°C (2300)~
1.5°C
However.....
Contribution of
Antarctic ice sheet
likely underestimated
14. Sea level rise beyond 2100 may challenge natural and human systems: 1.5°C
1.5°C~
2°C~
Knutti et al., Ngeo 2015
TO BE
ASSESSED
IN AR6Global mean temperature
change (°C)
Long-termsea-levelrise(m)
>7m : ...last time when the
atmosphere had 400 ppm
CO2 (in Pliocene, 3-5 Mya)
5-9 m : ...during the last interglacial
(Eemian, 125.000 ya, at 0.7-2°C
above pre-industrial)
(Dutton and Lembeck, Science 2012)
Paleo-observations as a reference
....affecting habitat, freshwater
resources, human society through
flood events
High ambition mitigation needed
15. • Ocean acidification: Defending oyster
cultures at the US Westcoast against
inflow of acidified water.
• Marine Protected Areas: Enhancing the
resilience of coral reefs and their fish
stocks against warming and acidification.
• Restoration of Mangrove Forests as in
Vietnam
REDUCING RISKS:
REGIONAL ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING
…but adaptation capacity is
highest under moderate climate
change,
≤ 1.5°C
16. - Ocean ecosystems are for the first time
noted in the UNFCCC Paris agreement,
even if only in the preamble.
However, more needs to be done:
- strengthen further the visibility of
the Ocean by its formal integration
into the UNFCCC process.
- enhance and exploit the science
basis of ocean related solution
options:
- Marine protected areas
- Blue growth (conservation/restoration)
- Sustainable development (blue economy)
A common response even
among those who know...!?
A sense of urgency:
Overcoming societal inertia and inaction in transformation....
Structure talk accoridng climate change degrees
Do half ice and half coral reef???
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level
should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Figure 30-9: (a) Simulated changes in dissolved O2 (mean and model range as shading) relative to 1990s for
RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. (b) Multi-model mean dissolved O2 (μ mol m–3 ) in the main thermocline
(200–600 m depth average) for the 1990s, and changes in the 2090s relative to 1990s for RCP2.6 (c) and RCP8.5
(d). To indicate consistency in the sign of change, regions are stippled when at least 80% of models agree on the
sign of the mean change. These diagnostics are detailed in [Cocco et al. , 2013] in a previous model inter-comparison
using the SRES-A2 scenario and have been applied to CMIP5 models here. Models used: CESM1-BGC, GFDLESM2G,
GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR,
NorESM1. Figure originally presented in WGI Figure 6.30 in WGI.
Figure 3. Metabolic index and its projected changes this century. A) Metabolic index as a function of temperature and oxygen, B) relative (%) changes in metabolic index, as predicted from IPCC model simulations, averaged over the upper thermocline (0-500m) for the period 2071-2100, relative to 1970-2000.
Figure SPM.6: Ocean acidification, risks for fisheries.
Marine mollusk and crustacean fisheries and known locations of cold- and warm-water corals, depicted on a global map showing the projected distribution of ocean acidification under RCP8.5 (pH change from 1986-2005 to 2081-2100). The bottom panel compares sensitivity to ocean acidification across vulnerable animal phyla with socioeconomic relevance.
