Michelle Mycoo, Shobha Maharaj, Johanna Nalau, and John Pinnegar on behalf of the Chapter 15 team

1. COP27
Small Islands: Staying afloat and alive@1.5
Michelle Mycoo, Shobha Maharaj, Johanna Nalau, and John Pinnegar on behalf of
the Chapter 15 team
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Ocean Image Bank/M.
Curnock, S. Baldwin,
CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Y.
Ishida/UNDP T. Leste
CC BY-NY 2.0

2. “
The scientific evidence is unequivocal:
climate change is a threat to human well-
being and the health of the planet.
WGII results provide GUIDANCE for
selecting the long-term climate goals and
associated mitigation and adaptaion
efforts.

3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Shobha Maharaj
Terrestrial Ecosystems in Small Islands

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Islands are Disproportionately Impacted
• Disproportionately higher rate of endemism and
threat vs continents. Why?
• Geographic range shifts/reductions for species
& vegetation associations
•  impacts on local ecology
• Species shifting greater distances to access:
• Suitable climate conditions
• Suitable breeding conditions
• Seasonal food
Islands cover only ~2 - 4% of Earth’s Land Area BUT support >20% of extant terrestrial species
• Observed:
• 80% of historical extinctions
• host ~ 1/2 all species currently at risk of
extinction
• Projections:
• Substantial losses of insular species
• 100% of island endemics to face extinction @
GWL 3 deg C
© Annie Spratt / Unsplash

6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Island Biodiversity Threats
#1 Cause: Human Activity
Islands have more limited terrain, natural, economic and data resources. Unconstrained habitat
destruction & degradation cannot be sustained.
Climate Change
Effects
Sea level rise
Extreme events
Invasive species
+
Limited Adaptation Potential
Lack of geographic space limits ability
to shift habitat range
(track suitable climatic zones)
and mitigation effectiveness
(expanding PAs, dispersal corridors, buffer
zones)
Amplified risk of
Local
Extinctions
=
https://www.migrationdataportal.org/blog/how-climate-change-affects-pacific

7. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation Strategy
Require holistic climate-smart strategies across mosaics of
human-impacted, often heavily degraded and fragmented,
landscapes
• Ecosystem-based approaches, such as ridge-to-reef
management
• Increase connectivity and reduce land use impacts
• Building on interconnections among terrestrial, freshwater,
coastal & marine ecosystems  No Silos!
• Conservation partnerships among lands inside and outside
protected areas
Require raising awareness of:
• Biodiversity values among local communities
• Expanding solutions reaching beyond protected area
boundaries
• Cross-sectoral planning and policy  island/regional/trans-
boundary scales
• Lend to private–public partnerships
• Necessity of socio-political change
https://www.thegef.org/sites/default/files/fiji-ecw-2016.jpg
https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-are-effects-climate-change

8. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
John Pinnegar
Coastal & Marine Ecosystems in Small Islands/Blue Economy

9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Sea Level Rise (SLR) and island inundation
• The frequency, extent, duration and consequences of
coastal flooding will significantly increase from 2050
(high confidence), unless marine ecosystems are able
to naturally adapt to SLR.
• A 5-10cm additional SLR (expected for 2030-50) will
double flooding frequency in much of the Indian Ocean
and Tropical Pacific while tropical cyclones will remain
the main driver of flooding in the Caribbean and
Southern Tropical Pacific.
• Some Pacific atoll islands will undergo annual wave-
driven flooding over their entire surface from the
2060s-2070s under RCP8.5.

10. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Marshall Islands 75% Tuvalu 62% Tokelau 47%
Northern Mariana Islands 50%
Maldives 48%
United States Minor Outlying Islands 33%

11. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Coral Bleaching
(American Samoa)
• Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in
coral abundance have been observed in many small
islands, especially those in the Pacific and Indian
Oceans (high confidence).
• In the Pacific, median return time between two
severe bleaching events has diminished steadily
since 1980 and is now only 6 years, often
associated with the warm phase of ENSO events
(high confidence).
• Modelling suggests that some small islands will
experience severe coral bleaching on an annual
basis before 2040 (medium confidence).
• Above 1.5°C it is projected that there will be further
loss of 70-90% of reef building corals.
US Virgin Islands
Oct 2005

12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Mangroves
(Goa)
• Large-scale die offs around many small islands
suggest that mangroves face increased risks from
climate change.
• Mangrove seaward edge retreat has been
demonstrated in American Samoa, Fiji, Bermuda,
West Papua and Grand Cayman - associated with
sea level rise or tectonic subsidence.
• Inundation related mortality could, in theory be
mitigated if mangroves can 'keep up' with SLR by
sediment accretion.
• If SLR exceeds 6mm/yr mangroves may be unable
to maintain their elevation relative to sea level, a
threshold likely to be surpassed in the next 30
years.

13. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Marine Ecosystem Services • In small islands where the risk of loss to ecosystem
services is high, many of these ecosystem services
cannot be easily replaced (medium confidence).
• A global meta-analysis including many small islands
across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans found
that coral reefs reduce wave height by an average of
84% (and wave energy by 97%).
• On some Caribbean islands where the dense
vegetation belt was preserved, this vegetation
(mangroves) buffered the waves of TC Irma and Jose
(2017), reducing the extent of inundation to a 30m wide
strip, against values >160m in deforested areas.
• As corals, mangroves and seagrasses disappear so do
fish and other organisms that directly benefit industries
such as ecotourism and fisheries (high confidence).

14. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Michelle Mycoo
Human Settlements and Adaptation Solutions

15. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Human Settlements
• The main settlements of small islands are
characterised by high-density coastal urban
development in the low-elevation coastal zone of
below 10 metres elevation.
• Population, buildings and infrastructure are currently
exposed to sea-level rise, heavy precipitation events,
tropical cyclones and storm surges. Human
settlements in atoll islands face the most threats.
• Terrestrial and coastal ecosystem damage has left
settlements highly vulnerable to climate change.
• Unsustainable land use practices and difficulties
enforcing land use zoning and building guidelines in
informal settlements make them highly vulnerable to
extreme events.

16. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation Responses
• The future sustainability of small island coastal
settlements depends on understanding that
adaptation solutions are island specific.
• Seawalls are used in Caribbean and Indian Ocean
islands, but maladaptation should be avoided.
• ‘Soft’ shoreline structures are favoured by the
Pacific islands and long used by Indigenous
communities.
• Accommodation e.g. raising dwellings and coastal
roads is not widely used because it is costly.
Source: IPCC Working Group 2, Chapter 15 Small Islands

17. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation Options
• Land reclamation to elevate land is increasingly
considered in some small islands to adapt to SLR.
• Planned resettlement is increasingly being
implemented as an adaptation option although in-
situ adaptation is frequently the preference of
communities over resettlement.
• Relocation--planned and autonomous--is an
adaptation option of last resort due to high
economic and sociocultural costs.

18. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation Responses
• Ecosystem-based adaptation approaches and
other nature-based solutions are increasingly
being used. Restoring or conserving coastal and
marine ecosystems.
• Integrated watershed management using the
‘ridge to reef’ approach is being adopted to
improve water security and erosion control in
coastal settlements.
• Hybrid options of nature-based (if space &
environmental conditions allow) & protection
measures (on wealthy, densely populated islands)
could reduce risk for low SLR in the next few
decades.

19. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Future Adaptation
All human settlement adaptation responses are more
effective:
 If combined and/or sequenced;
 Planned well ahead;
 Aligned with sociocultural values and
development priorities; and
 Underpinned by inclusive community engagement
processes.
Credit: Photos from World Atlas and Tribune 2022

20. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Johanna Nalau
Adaptation Limits, Barriers and Opportunities

21. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
J. Nalau
There are limits to adaptation
• Even effective adaptation cannot
prevent all losses and damages
• Above 1.5°C some natural solutions may
no longer work.
• Above 1.5°C, lack of fresh water could
mean that people living on small islands
and those dependent on glaciers and
snowmelt can no longer adapt.
• By 2°C it will be challenging to farm
multiple staple crops in many current
growing areas.

22. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
J. Nalau
Limits in Small Islands
• Above 1.5°C some natural solutions
such as ecosystem-based approaches
may no longer work e.g. coastal species
cannot keep up with sea level rise or
changing conditions
• Above 1.5°C, ocean acidification and
increased temperatures influence
coastal and marine adaptation options
and livelihoods + water availability
• By 2°C many of these impacts worsen
including increased extreme events,
damage to infrastructure, health
impacts, livelihoods

23. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation constraints in Small Islands
• Finance and Risk Transfer Mechanisms: limited access to finance, including insurance and
other risk transfer mechanisms; climate finance as debts vs grants; role of insurance
• Governance: lack of coordination; short vs long-term financing and planning; absence of climate
legislation; low technical capacity and poor data availability and quality; limited regional
cooperation and collaboration
• Education and awareness: lack of climate change literacy and knowledge; community-based
training and workshops
• Culture: IKLK not incorporated into adaptation programs and projects; lack of engagement with
tradition owners of the land; lack of consideration of gender

24. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Adaptation opportunities in Small Islands
• Understanding what effective adaptation is, how this varies
across islands and what successful implementation looks like.
• Increasing investments in early warning systems, adaptation
planning, capacity building,
• Direct and indirect evidence on adaptation benefits: eg how to
get co-benefits across adaptation actions and sectors; eg
overall increases in well-being
• Climate Resilient Development Pathways: how do we create
sustainable societies?

25. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• Small Islands:
• Adequately downscaled climate and
scenario data
• Future sea level and wave climate
projections
• Baseline and available observation data
• Losses and Damages (economic and non-
economic)
• Migration of small island populations
• Biophysical variables, food security etc
Data gaps are substantial
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
OceanImageBank_MattCurnock

26. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Losses and Damages …
Already reporting losses and damages
tropical cyclones
increases sea-level rise
• Loss of human life
• Economic damage
• Largely undeveloped:
• Methods & mechanisms to assess
climate-induced losses and damages
• No robust methodologies to infer
attribution
• Such assessments are limited
26
NLRC via IFRC CC BY-NC 2.0

27. “Regardless of where we look:
every small increase in warming
will result in increased risks,
escalating above 1.5° global
warming.

28. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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