ASCLME/SWIOFP/FAO Nansen projectsWarwick Sauer and Kevern Cochrane
Presentation at the 2nd Targeted Workshop for GEF IW Projects in Africa on Economic Valuation in November 2012 in Addis Ababa.
9. Over 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped offOver 10000 tons of toxic waste dumped off
Spmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 bySpmalia in the 1990’s/early 2000 by
european countrieseuropean countries
10. The need to anchor biological research to
an economic and social framework
12. Compiling Fisheries management
plans for Tanzania, Kenya and
Seychelles,
•1 month course held at Rhodes for
representatives from the ASCLME/SWIOFP
countries
•Each country to choose a fishery and
compile a management plan by December
2012
13. BASELINE STUDY:
•Preamble
•Objectives
•Policy and legal framework within which the fishery is operating
•Institutional and administrative frameworks
•Overview of the fishery and resources exploited
•Available scientific and traditional knowledge on the resources
•Assessment of the importance of the fishery in the national economy
•Management measures currently being used in the fishery
•Effectiveness of the current management
•Compliance and Enforcement:
•The way forward
•References
14. Risk Analysis involves consideration of :
• the sources of risk,
• their consequences and
• the likelihood that they may occur.
Moreover, it allows for the prioritization of issues or hazards
with justification and the subsequent prioritization of
management responses.
It requires stakeholders to deliberate and come up with
an agreed position and provides an agreed roadmap for
the way forward. In essence it is a way of
operationalizing policy.
Risk Analysis
15. • Identification of Issues
The methodology utilizes generic component trees to
help participants to tease out the main issues or
concerns that the fishery faces (Figure 1).
18. Using the broad information required by the
management plan to set management measures:
Perhaps think simple models - Gather fishery
biological, economic, social and political information
to gauge trends in sustainability – Set Target and
limit indicators
e.g. simple biological indicators from an Angolan study..
Proposed
Example
Robot
≥ 336660
< 336660
≤ 217200
≤ 0.51
> 0.51
≥ 0.65
≥ 738
< 738
≤ 664
≥ 0.08
< 0.08
≤ 0.05
Cut off
Values
≥ 60% baseline
< 60% baseline
≤ 40% baseline
Sardinella Biomass
(baseline = 543 000mt)
≤ baseline M + 0.1
> baseline M + 0.1
> RSA Z + 0.10
Mean Z
(baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03,
Z = 0.41)
≥ 10% baseline
< 10% baseline
≤ 20% baseline
Mean size of mature fish
(baseline 820mm FL)
≥ 60% baseline
< 60% baseline
≤ 40% baseline
Mean cpue
(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-
1hour)
EstimatorIndicator
(baseline reference point)
Proposed
Example
Robot
≥ 336660
< 336660
≤ 217200
≤ 0.51
> 0.51
≥ 0.65
≥ 738
< 738
≤ 664
≥ 0.08
< 0.08
≤ 0.05
Cut off
Values
≥ 60% baseline
< 60% baseline
≤ 40% baseline
Sardinella Biomass
(baseline = 543 000mt)
≤ baseline M + 0.1
> baseline M + 0.1
> RSA Z + 0.10
Mean Z
(baseline M = 0.38, F = 0.03,
Z = 0.41)
≥ 10% baseline
< 10% baseline
≤ 20% baseline
Mean size of mature fish
(baseline 820mm FL)
≥ 60% baseline
< 60% baseline
≤ 40% baseline
Mean cpue
(baseline 0.13 fish.angler-
1hour)
EstimatorIndicator
(baseline reference point)
rr
gg
oo
gg0.15 =
105000=
g
oo
rr
gg
oo
rr
oo
rr
gg
oo
rr
gg
750 =
0.48 =
Traffic light system
No
restrictions
Fishery
closure
Eg. Closed
areas (size
and location
to be
determined)
Eg. Closed
season
(Aug–Oct)
First tier
Second tier
Third tier
Management framework
Indicators
19. BUT HOW DOWE MAKE MANAGERS ACT ONTHIS ADVICE?
THE FAO CODE OF CONDUCT SUGGESTS WE USETHE
PRECAUTIONARY APPROACH FOR MANAGING MARINE
SPECIES WITH LITTLE OR UNCERTAIN DATA
Precautionary approach - If in doubt, adopt a cautious
position based on a ‘worst-case’ scenario
Problem:
Managers are uncomfortable at basing their management
plans/strategies on what is often seen as ‘supposition’ or limited
observation with limited supportive scientific evidence
Policy-Makers do not feel fully justified in making policy decisions which
may threaten or impact on other social or economic priorities unless
they have reliable ‘justification’ (clear advice from scientists) to support
their decisions
Scientists are therefore understandable nervous about ‘sticking their
necks out’ and provide advice/guidance based on anything less than
very high confidence limits (95% +)
20. No confidence limits
Managers / policy makers
reluctant to base decisions
on ‘supposition’
Provides an indication of trends
Enables faster action
Allows adaptive management
Prioritises issues for further study
Indicators and modelling used as tools
Scientific research
Precautionary approach
Weight-of Evidence approach for
Adaptation measures?
Few, detailed studies
Large body of
work
Advise and Guide Policy and Management Decisions
95% confidence required
Very reliable but data demanding
Often based on long term studies
(too long to wait)
Traditional approach
Limited Peer Review
(1-3 Specialists?)
Extensive Peer Review
(multi-sectoral)
Limited or No
Peer Review
Too slow for effective
Management decisions
Too unreliable for effective
Management decisions
Fast-Track decision-making
supported by expert opinion
WE REQUIRTE AN ALTERNATE APPROACH, PARICULALRY
FOR DEVLOPING COUNTRIES WITH LIMITED CAPACITY…
21. BUILDING AN ECOSYSTEM APPROACH TO MANAGING AFRICAN MARINE RESOURCES
ResearchTraditional Publication
>95%
CI
Submit Trends Paper
“Trends in Ecosystem Variability & Adaptive Management”
<95%
CI
IW Review Board;
SET UP BY IW LEARN?
Review Panel Includes:
Biological, Physico-Chemical, Modelling, Socio-
economics & Governance experts
Peer Review Roster
Maintained by
Includes specialist reviewers in:
Marine Biology
Physical Oceanography
Chemical Oceanography
Pollution
Modelling
Remote Sensing
Socio-Economics
Governance
Trend Assessment & Allocation
HP P L UL HUL
Reject?
Recommend as Priority Trend
ReferBackforMoreConfidence
A.National
importance-
DraftPolicy
Brief
B.Regionalimportance
-DraftManagement
Brief
C.FurtherStudies&
StrengtheningofConfidence
National Agency
Regional management groups
Funding/
Support
Notas del editor
Bellard, C., Bertelsmeier, C., Leadley, P., Thuiller, W. & Courchamp, F. 2012 Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01736.x.
Rock lobster future scenario 1 (dark blue line in Figure 22): Recruitment decline with increased temperature is greater than estimated from recruitment data derived from fisher logbook book data (i.e. we assumed impact would be more in line with the changes in puerulus settlement that have been observed with temperature). Declines in exploitable biomass occur after only minor initial increases in biomass driven by improved growth rates. Reduction in exploitable biomass is predicted to be greater and occur earlier in the north. The abundance of large lobsters would be insufficient to prevent Centrostephanus barrens formation along the east coast in the immediate future, and state-wide in the medium term (e.g. 2035).
Rock lobster future scenario 2 (light blue line in Figure 22): In this scenario growth responds more rapidly to temperature so that the stock becomes more productive initially. Increases in growth are predicted to lead to increases in exploitable biomass in all regions, driven by gains in productivity in the southern regions of the state, dragging commercial effort southwards. Centrostephanus barrens formation remains an immediate risk until the inshore biomass of lobsters over 145 millimetres CL becomes sufficient to limit the spread of barrens. Gains from growth are not negated by falls in recruitment until sometime after 2070, although it is important to acknowledge that this decline would still occur and would also include a decline in larger lobsters, ultimately increasing probability of barrens formation. Increased recreational effort may result as a function of improved catch rates due to increased biomass but only if barrens formation is limited.