1. What is climate change?
• Climatic Normals: denoted by a statistical focus
on average values of various weather
elements taken over at least a 30 year period.
• Climatic state:is defined as the average of the
complete set of atmospheric, hydrospheric, ,
and cryospheric variables over a specified
period of time in a specific domain of earth
atmosphere system.
• Climatic state therefore could be monthly,
seasonal, annual,or decadal.

2. What evidences suggest
change?• Direct evidence: daily weather records (but
limited for about past two centuries and for
very selected stations.
• Historical climatic data: written records and
observations on crop yields and drought. (for
Nile valley data for thousands of years are
available).
• Proxy climatic data: from natural world such
as sediments deposited on the sea floor to
concentric growth rings of tree trunks
(dendrochronology.

3. Climatic History: The past 150
years• Accurate record keeping based on reliable
instruments began only during the last 150 years.
• Limited to western Europe and North America
• Most of the other areas have records for less than 50
years.
• Records of West Africa ended or interrupted during
the instability of 1960s.
• Satellite observations are few decades old and
surface verification is inadequate.
• Absence of dependable long term data is a major
obstacle in understanding of climate change.
• Warming trend 1880 to 1940, a cooling trend from
1940 to 1960 and again warming trend.
• Regional variations: Higher latitudes are more
vulnerable.

4. Past 1500 years
• The earth was warm and becoming warmer
during the centuries prior to AD 1000. Similar
to what we are experiencing today.
• Sea level was high. Low lying coastal
countries coped with rising water (Polders
were built by Dutch)
• High latitudes environs of Greenland and
Iceland were amenable to settlement.
• The Romans planted grapevines in Britain
and wine industry thrived.
• Grains were grown in Iceland and
Greenland.(The Little Ice Age by Jean
Groves)

5. Past 15000 years
• Conclusions based on seeds, tools, and
other artifacts recovered from ancient
inhabited sites.
• Earth was in the grip of a major
glaciation that lasted about 80 thousand
years.
• Major part of USA and Canada were
covered by ice sheets. North Asia,
Europe and all higher mountains lay
under ice caps.

6. Climate Change:External processes
• Periodic variation in the shape of the
earth’s orbit around the sun. (a cycle of
about 100,000 years. Elliptical to circular.
• Obliqueness of the earth’s axis (41,000
years cycle). Earth rolls like a ship on its
axis.(65.6 to 68.2 degrees)
• Wobble effect (a cycle of 21,000 years)

7. Climate change : Internal
process
• Heat and water exchange in the
atmosphere

8. Immediate Consequences

9. In some 40 poor, developing
countries, with a combined
population of 2 billion, including 450
million undernourished people,
production losses due to climate
change may drastically increase the
number of undernourished people,
severely hindering progress in
combating poverty and food
insecurity," the FAO report says

10. India could lose 125 million tons, or 18
per cent, of its rainfed cereal production,
while China’s rainfed cereal production of
350 million tons is expected to rise by 15
per cent.

11. Agriculture will have to adapt to an
accelerating stream of new pests and
diseases caused by changing ecological
conditions resulting from climate change

12. The report warns that temperature
changes, as well as increased air
pollution, can intensify human disease
patterns, as does the spread of trans-
boundary animal diseases caused by
pathogens that are potentially dangerous
to humans. “Avian flu is the most recent
example,”.

13. Climate change not only has an impact
on food security, but is also likely to
influence the development and
intensification of animal diseases and
plant pests

14. Sixty-five developing countries, home to
more than half the developing world's
total population in 1995, risk losing about
280 million tons of potential cereal
production, valued at $56 billion, as a
result of climate change. This loss would
be equivalent to 16 per cent of the
agricultural gross domestic product
(GDP) of these countries in 1995 dollars.
FAO

15. Expanding Drought Prone Areas
in India

16. Drought ?
• Meteorologist: the absence or severe
deficiency of rainfall
• Agronomist: the absence of soil moisture
• Hydrologist: the absence of water in the
storage reservoirs

17. Drought ?
• For a farmer : It is a failure of his crop
• For urban centered people like us: Rise
in price of daily needed food items such
as onion, potato etc or power cuts .

18. Drought ?
• It is a serious imbalance between soil
moisture and evapotranspiration needs of
an area

19. Drought?
Drought: It can occur any where in the world
Drought Affected Areas: Any area affected
in a season or a year.
Drought Prone areas: Frequently/chronically
drought affected areas.

20. Table 1
Production And Per Capita Availability of Food Grains in India, 1960-2003
Year Food
grain
Output
(in miilion
tonnes
Net per capita output
(kg/year)
Net per capita availability
(grams/day)
Cereals Pulses Total Cereals Pulses Total
1960-63 82.0 158 29 187 400 69 469
1970-73 103.5 144 17 162 418 51 469
1980-83 130.8 149 14 163 417 38 455
1990-93 174.8 163 13 176 468 42 510
2000-03 194.3 152 10 162 391 26 417

21. Table 2
Drought Prone Area: Evolution of Identification Criteria
S.NO. Organization/Body Year Criteria
1 Ministry of Agriculture 1967 • Total or almost total failure of crops once 3/5/10 years.
2 Committee of Secretaries 1970-71 • Incidence of Rainfall
• Environmental conditions
•Chronic liability to drought
3 Gidwani Committee 1971 • Irrigation of rainfall over a period of time.
• Extent of irrigation area in the district
• Chronic liability to drought.
4 Irrigation Commission 1972 • Irrigation on about 30 per cent of total cropped area as immunity
against drought.
• Probability of critical rainfall shortage by 20 per cent
• An adverse water balance
5 Swaminathan Commission 1982 • Average annual rainfall below 1125 mm.
• Irrigation below 40 per cent of total cropped area.
6 Inter- departmental Group and
Central Sanctioning
Committee
1984
1987
• Average annual rainfall below 1650 mm
• Irrigation below 10 per cent of total cropped area.
7 Hanumantha Rao Committee 1994 • Moisture Index
• Percentage of area under irrigation

22. Table 3
Drought Prone Area Programme: An Overview of Coverage
1 2 3 4 5 6
Commission/
Committees/ Task
Force
Year States District Block Remark
Secretaries
Committee and
Ministry of
Agriculture
1970-71 8 23 - Districts as identification unit.
Gidwani Committee 1971 13 54 - In addition, contiguous areas in another 18 districts were
identified
Irrigation
Commission
1972 8 68 321 Identification unit changed to Talukas
B.S.Minhas Task
Force
1973 13 74 557 Identification unit changed to Block
Swaminathan
Committee
1982 13 69 511 -do-
Inter Departmental
Council/ Central
Sanctioning
Authority
1984-87 13 92 615 -do-
Hanumantha Rao 1994 13 183 972 -do-

23. Table 4
Drought Prone Area Programme: State Level Coverage, 1996
S.No. State Total
Districts
DPAP
Districts
DPAP
Districts as
per cent to
Total
Districts
Total Blocks DPAP
Blocks
DPAP
Blocks as
per cent to
Total Blocks
1 Andhra Pradesh 23 11 47.80 1092 94 8.6
2 Bihar 42 12 28.57 591 121 20.5
3 Gujarat 19 10 52.60 184 52 28.3
4 Himachal Pradesh 12 3 25.00 69 9 13.0
5 Jammu Kashmir 14 2 14.30 119 22 18.5
6 Karnataka 20 11 55.00 175 81 46.3
7 Madhya Pradesh 45 25 55.60 459 134 29.2
8 Maharashtra 30 22 73.30 298 148 49.7
9 Orissa 13 5 38.46 314 47 15.0
10 Rajasthan 27 9 33.33 213 32 15.0
11 Tamil Nadu 21 12 57.14 385 80 20.8
12 Uttar Pradesh 63 17 26.98 897 91 10.1
13 West Bengal 17 4 23.50 339 36 10.6
Total (DPAP States) 346 143 41.32 5135 947 18.4
India 466 143 30.68 5767 947 16.4

24. Table 5
Drought Prone Area Programme: Criteria for Financial Allocation
Period Criteria Funding Arrangements Allocation Method Remarks
1974-79 Area of the District covered under
the programme in percentage
Shared equally between the centre
and concerned states
Districts with coverage of
1 > 75 per cent: Rs60 million for five year
plan period
2 50-75 per cent: Rs50 million for five year
plan period
3 < per cent: Rs40 million for five year plan
period
1979-87 Number of Blocks covered in a
district
Shared equally between the centre
and concerned states
Rs 1.5 million per block per annum In 1983: Rs 12
million per block
per annum
1988-95 Area of Block covered in a district Equally shared between the centre
and concerned states
Block with an area of
I > 1000 sq.km. : Rs.1.85 million per block
per annum.
II >500- 1000 sq.km. : Rs.1.65 million per
block per annum
III > 500 sq.km. : Rs.1.5 million per block
per annum
1995- till date Area of blocks and number of
watershed projects running
Equally shared between the centre
and concerned states
Rs 500 thousand /375 thousand per project
in semi arid/ Dry sub humid for a maximum
of 3,5 and 6 projects in a block of 400 sq.km
and above 800 sq.km. respectively
April 1, 1999-
till date
Area of blocks and number of
watershed projects running
75:25 between centre and state 30 lakh for a watershed project of 500 ha.

25. Table 6
Drought Prone Area Programme : Changes in Administrative Coverage by States,
1970-71 to 1996
Sr. No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
States Years
1070-71 1971 1972 1973 1982 1984-87 1996
1 Andhra Pradesh 4 5 7 (56) 7 (76) 7 (66) 8 (69) 11 (94)
2 Bihar - 3 4 (57) 2(31) 5 (54) 16 (121)
3 Gujarat 7 7 11 (58) 10 (41) 8 (42) 8 (43) 10 (52)
4 Haryana 1 1 4 (6) 3 (31) 1 (09) 1 (9) -
5 Himachal Pradesh - - - - - - 3 (9)
6 Jammu & Kashmir - 1 - 2 (13) 2 (13) 2 (13) 2 (22)
7 Karnataka 2- 5 12 (88) 10 (46) 10 (70) 11(71) 11 (81)
8 Madhya Pradesh - 4 9 (23) 6 (42) 6 (48) 6 (49) 25 (134)
9 Maharashtra 2 6 9 (45) 6 (42) 9 (53) 12 (74) 22 (148)
10 Orissa - 2 - 2 (25) 4 (39) 4 (39) 8 (47)
11 Rajasthan 5- 10 9 (19) 13 (79) 4 (18) 8 (30) 10 (32)
12 Tamil Nadu - 2 7 (24) 2 (48) 3 (30) 7 (43) 15 (80)
13 Uttar Pradesh 1 6 - 6 (40) 10 (63) 17 (87) 18 (91)
14 West Bengal - 2 - 3 (35) 3 (29) 3 (34) 4 (36)
India 23 54 68 (321) 68 (321) 69 (511) 92 (615) 155 (947)

26. Table 7
Drought Prone Area Programme: Areal Coverage by States
S. No. States Total Area DPAP Area DPAP Area as per
cent to Total Area
of the State
DPAP Area as per
cent to Total
DPAP Area of
India
1 Andhra Pradesh 275045 99876 36.31 13.38
2 Bihar 173877 44394 25.53 5.95
3 Gujarat 196024 43938 22.41 5.89
4 Himachal Pradesh 55673 3327 5.98 0.45
5 Jammu & Kashmir 222236 14740 6.63 1.98
6 Karnataka 191791 84332 43.97 11.30
7 Madhya Pradesh 443446 110863 25.00 14.86
8 Maharashtra 307690 194273 63.14 26.04
9 Orissa 155707 26168 16.81 3.51
10 Rajasthan 342239 31769 9.28 4.26
11 Tamil Nadu 130058 29426 22.63 3.94
12 Uttar Pradesh 294411 51494 17.49 6.90
13 West Bengal 88752 11594 13.06 1.55
Total (DPAP States) 2876949 746194 25.94 100.00
India 3287263 746194 22.70 100.00

30. Some Conclusions
• Climate change is inevitable. It changed in
the past, it is changing in the present and
shall change in the future.
• Any rapid change is disastrous for human
survival.
• Human intervention is on the rise and
must be minimised.
• Limited climatic data is inadequate for
precise synthesis.

31. Some Conclusions
• Drought prone areas cover 36 per cent of
the total land area. It was only 19 per cent
in 1973. (DPA-22.7 %, Desert –13.4%).
• Drought prone were identified in Himachal
Pradesh.
• Drought Prone areas of Haryana have
been put under desert.
• Hot non sandy deserts were identified in
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

32. Some Conclusions
• There is a need for drought resistant crops
for the drought prone areas and water
resistant in the flood prone areas.However
seeds must be resistant to pests and
insects in all the areas.