Presentation about the conflict in Ukraine and the background behind this conflict.

1. Kom verder. Saxion.
What is going on in Ukraine?
Lecture for the Fruytier School, Apeldoorn
geography class
Jacques Bazen

2. Kom verder. Saxion.
Overview of the lecture
• International cooperation in Europe
• EU Eastern partnership – case study
• How to explain the Ukranian crisis:
Geopolitics or Clash of values?
• Understanding the Russians…!?

3. Kom verder. Saxion.
About myself
• I studied at the Fruytier (graduated in 1997)
• Studied human geography at Utrecht University
• Worked from 1999 – 2007 as geography teacher
at Van Lodensteincollege in Amersfoort
• Since 2007 lecturer at Saxion in Enschede
• Since 2009 project coordinator for training &
democratization activities in Eastern Europe

4. Kom verder. Saxion.
Specialized on working with Eastern
Europe

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What is happening in Ukraine?
More in particular, who caused the current trouble?
• NOS: Russia did it.
• Brussels: We don’t know, probably Russia
• Russia: CIA together with Brussels did it.
• Wilders: Brussels did it.
• Ukrainians (from West: Russia did it)
• Ukrainians (from East: Fascists in Kiev did it)

6. Kom verder. Saxion.
Did the EU Eastern Partnership cause it?
EU Partnership is aimed at improving:
- Trade with former Sovjet Union states
- Making travel easier
- European-wide
environmental issues
(eg. Baltic Sea, Black Sea)
Not: Candidate membership

7. Kom verder. Saxion.
Trouble in Ukraine: A small story
from the viewpoint of the West
Once upon a time there was a
country that was out of money…
Well…there was money, but
it was in the deep pockets of the
elite

8. Kom verder. Saxion.
Trouble in Ukraine
The president looked around to
find additional money…
Can the EU help?
Maybe a trade agreement/
other funding?

9. Kom verder. Saxion.
Trouble in Ukraine
Conditions for reform were
demanded by the EU. The
president refused to sign

10. Kom verder. Saxion.
Trouble in Ukraine
Conditions for reform were
demanded by the EU. The
president refused to sign
Ukrainian people were fed up
by the unfairness of the
government and started
mass protests.

11. Kom verder. Saxion.
Trouble in Ukraine
The protests succeeded: The
president was ousted.
Ukrainian people were fed up
by the unfairness of the
government and started
mass protests.

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Trouble in Ukraine: View from the West
Angry elite
feels these
changes as a
big threat to
their lucrative
businesses...
A threat that
must be
stopped...

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Is this what and why it happened?
Or are there other explanations?

14. Kom verder. Saxion.
• Is it a geopolitical game?
• Russia: an attempt to expand the European
Union's “sphere of influence” in the quest for oil
and gas. International relations according to
Russia: Zero-Sum game, so stay out of our
backyard!
• EU: These countries voluntarily joined the
partnership. No geopolitical tool or blackmail
How to explain the current crisis in
Ukraine?

15. Kom verder. Saxion.
Is the USA behind the troubles in Ukraine?
Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt
phone call:
I think we're in play. The Klitschko [Vitaly Klitschko, one of
three main opposition leaders] piece is obviously the
complicated electron here. Especially the announcement of
him as deputy prime minister and you've seen some of my
notes on the troubles in the marriage right now so we're
trying to get a read really fast on where he is on this stuff.
But I think your argument to him, which you'll need to
make, I think that's the next phone call you want to set up,
is exactly the one you made to Yats [Arseniy Yatseniuk,
another opposition leader]. And I'm glad you sort of put
him on the spot on where he fits in this scenario. And I'm
very glad that he said what he said in response.

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What about the Maidan protests:
What we saw about the protests in The Netherlands…

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What about the Maidan protests?
What was shown in Russian
mass media…

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What about the Maidan protests?
BOTH IS TRUE!
But…

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Fair and Balanced news coverage?

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How to explain the current crisis in
Ukraine?
Can Geopolitical theory help with some answers?

21. Kom verder. Saxion.
Geopolitical theory
Since the industrial
revolution, states need
more and more resources
for production and people
to work in factories.
Foreign policy based on
secure access to
resources.

22. Kom verder. Saxion.
Russia, Ratzel & The Roman Empire
Friedrich Ratzel: Organic state theory.
States are like organisms. Stagnation is
decay  see Roman Empire.
Ratzel’s idea of growth: German culture
should “fertilize” minor nations with its
superior culture.
Organic state theory is influential in
Russia (“Mother Russia”)  breakup of
the Soviet Union was a psychological
disaster.

23. Kom verder. Saxion.
Russian point of view
Generally speaking, the whole period of the early 1990's is
regarded in modern Russia as a time of the "great
betrayal" of our national interests. All that was decided in
internal and external politics by Gorbachev and later by
Boris Yeltsin is judged as a complete failure. We consider
their politics as absolute stupidity and incompetence. The
surrender to the West in 1990, the abandonment of the
GDR not for a new Germany but for a bigger FRG is
considered today in Russia as one of the shames of this
big betrayal. Gorbatchev and Yeltsin also sacrificed our
Russia!

24. Kom verder. Saxion.
Secure access to resources
• Eastern partnership?
• Less dependency on Russian gas?

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Role of the USA
Is there a secret conspiracy of
the USA to destroy Russia?
(Depicting Russia as evil
aggressor)
Over 60% of the Russians believe
this.
Emotion driven politics in Russia
 the unknown is to be feared

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Role of the USA
Is there a secret conspiracy of
the USA to destroy Russia?
Exchange rate politics?
Depreciation of Ruble against
the Dollar/Euro

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Role of the USA
Oil politics – geopolitical
measures?
Decreasing the oil prices –
Hitting Russia where it hurts the
most?

28. Kom verder. Saxion.
Sanctions in Russia
Hitting Europe where it hurts the
most?
Food import boycott

29. Kom verder. Saxion.
Sanctions in Russia
Hitting Europe where it hurts the
most?
Food import boycott

30. Kom verder. Saxion.
History repeating itself?
American point of view
Cold war containment policy:
George Kennan: Soviet rulers need a
hostile world to legitimize their autocratic
rule and seek to expand to minimize the
“threat” from outside.
America should create a counterforce by
giving economic aid (Marshall plan)

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American imperialism…
Cold War history repeating itself???

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American foreign relations: Realpolitik
Zbigniew Brzezinski:
America is the only
remaining superpower and
remains necessary to solve
Eurasian problems as
independent referee →
“Project for the new
American century”
The enemies of our
enemies are our friends!

33. Kom verder. Saxion.
Russian Geopolitics
Alexandr Dugin:
“Foundations of Geopolitics”
Mastermind behind Vladimir
Putin’s foreign policy: Eurasian Unity
Idea of breaking American dominance, restoration
of Russia as an empire (Multipolar “Balance of
power” in the world)

34. Kom verder. Saxion.
Divisions of Europe (model)

35. Kom verder. Saxion.Finlandization of Europe
Russian sphere
German sphere
Enemy: “Sea power”
Moscow – Berlin axis
Moscow – Teheran
axis

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21st Century Europe
Are we heading for
war?
Are the troubles in
Ukraine an isolated
matter between
Ukraine and Russia
or will it be a new
1938
“Czechoslovakia”?

37. Kom verder. Saxion.
21st Century Europe
Nobody wins anything in a war!
Full scale war unlikely

38. Kom verder. Saxion.
Another explanation
“Institutional” theorists suggest the current
troubles in Ukraine are most likely the
consequence of the extractive nature of the
Ukrainian and Russian government
institutions.
In other words: Any move towards the EU
with its freedom means a threat for the
personal interests of the elite in both Kiev
and Moscow.

39. Kom verder. Saxion.
Inclusive versus Extractive institutions
Inclusive countries: Extractive countries:
- Rule of law - Rule of elite
- Equality for all: - Some are more equal
Solid property rights than others
- Aimed at effectiveness - Aimed at interests of
and efficiency the ruling class
- Encouragement of - Encouragement of clientelism:
Entrepreneurship: incentive to be government
Incentive to invest official or politician.

40. Kom verder. Saxion.
Conclusion
2 Different paradigms/truths opposing each other:
EU Russia
- Countries should start from - Countries should take cover
their own strengths behind the back of a strong
ally (“Protector”)
- International relations are - International relations are a
synergetic zero-sum game
- State is instrumental for - State is organic/sacred:
supporting quality of life “Motherland”/”Fatherland”
- Rational policies, but could - Emotion driven policies
mean “creative destruction”

41. Kom verder. Saxion.
Conclusion
The role of the USA in the conflict remains unclear:
The USA government claims to support freedom and security.
The Russian government claims that the USA is only fighting for
the interest of American politicians and American big business
in their quest for world domination.
In what sense is this indeed a geopolitical game in which the EU
is squeezed in the middle?

42. Kom verder. Saxion.
Thank you for your attention!