Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers
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Estimates help project managers plan projects by allowing them to block team member time, set deadlines, and manage expectations. Estimates also help with budgeting by providing a cost range for the project. Even with careful planning, unforeseen issues can cause delays or budget overruns. Accurate estimates allow project managers and clients to be on the same page about the project scope and resources needed.
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Drupal Estimation Techniques by Project Managers
- 1. ience of Gu essing The Sc ru pal E stim ation D Te chni ques P ro ject from M an agers http://www.sxc.hu/photo/814294 AS PRESENTED AT DRUPALCAMP STOCKHOLM ON MARCH 8 2013
- 2. Introductions Seriously, who are these people? Shannon Vettes Jakob Persson Partner Manager at Doing Drupal since 2005, co- Commerce Guys, Project founded NodeOne in 2007, Managing since 2005, currently freelance Drupal Drupal since 2010, consultant Working in IT since 2000 S J
- 3. WE ENCOURAGE BIRDSONG Tweet , Tweet , Tweedly-deet... Questions & comments? #drestimate S J
- 4. WHY YOU ARE HERE
- 5. WHY YOU ARE HERE When a client or colleague asks you for an estimate, what’s your initial reaction? S
- 6. WHY YOU ARE HERE When a client or colleague asks you for an estimate, what’s your initial reaction? Is it THIS? S
- 7. WHY YOU ARE HERE When a client or colleague asks you for an estimate, what’s your initial reaction? Or... Maybe This? S
- 8. WHY YOU ARE HERE When a client or colleague asks you for an estimate, what’s your initial reaction? I hope it’s not this.... S
- 9. WHY YOU ARE HERE If it’s anything like that, You’ve come to the right place!
- 10. WHY YOU ARE HERE At the end of this presentation, we want you to feel like this when asked for an estimate. We’ll cover: What an estimate is Why estimates are needed How risks affect estimates How an estimate is made Answers to your questions S
- 11. WHAT AN ESTIMATE IS
- 12. WHAT AN ESTIMATE IS “Estimation is the calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.” – Wikipedia J
- 13. WHAT AN ESTIMATE IS “How to bake a pie” ✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ Theming ✔ UI refinement ✔ Development/config ✔ Training/doc ✔ Automated testmaking ✔ Testing ✔ Bugfixing ✔ Deployment ✔ Project management time J
- 14. ✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ UI refinement Story Case Focuses on needs Focus on behavior and describe and interaction, functionality in a eliminates way the shows its ambiguity and application and provides the business value. developer with the information he/she needs. •Role •Summary •Need •Rationale •Sequence of •Users events •Preconditions •How to demo •Default events •Alternative sequence http://www.stellman-greene.com/2009/05/03/requirements-101-user-stories-vs-use-cases/ J
- 15. ✔ Requirements clarification ✔ Use cases ✔ UI refinement Requirements evolve and are clarified over the course of a project, and they’re often provided as UI designs. Click me Click me Click me April May 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 J
- 16. ✔ Theming ✔ Development/config <html> The “real” work? < ?p hp m_al ter() .tpl.php hook_for Views Panel <as ide> CCK s R ules $(function() { ...}) J
- 17. ✔ Automated testmaking ✔ Testing ✔ Bugfixing • Test more, build more • Automated testing saves time over the course of a project • Tests helps identify and manage ambiguous requirements http://www.sxc.hu/photo/684719 J
- 18. ✔ Training/doc ✔ Deployment HOMEWORK (DON’T FORGET!): - Creating content - Ed iting menus les, ok? Dr upal ru http://www.sxc.hu/photo/987819 J
- 19. PROJECT MANAGEMENT DOES TAKE TIME What about the dreaded.... ✔ Project management time J
- 20. PROJECT MANAGEMENT DOES TAKE TIME What about the dreaded.... “We don’t need another PM from your team adding overhead to this project.” - Poor Soul ✔ Project management time J
- 21. PROJECT MANAGEMENT DOES TAKE TIME What about the dreaded.... “We don’t need another PM from your team adding overhead to this project.” - Poor Soul ✔ Project management time J
- 22. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES
- 23. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES 05 Estimates help to: Plan $ € Budget Communicate J
- 24. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 05 What do we mean by planning? http://bit.ly/WsdfLj S
- 25. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 05 What do we mean by planning? When will it be done?!? (Yes, we mean schedules!) http://bit.ly/WsdfLj S
- 26. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan S
- 27. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan Choose a team then April Block their time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 based on estimates S
- 28. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan S
- 29. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 April 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 Get a deadline... then Choose a team S
- 30. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 05 Project estimated to 115 hours. I got 3 guys working full time for a week gives... 40 hrs × 3 = 120 hrs April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 S
- 31. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 05 t ’s Project estimated to 115 hours. I got 3 guys working full time for a week gives... t ha ps... IT Y Woo IL= 120 hrs B× 3 Ahrs VAIL 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 A April 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 May 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 S
- 32. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan 6.4 × 3 = 19.2 hrs per day April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 115/19.2 = 6 days S
- 33. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661 J
- 34. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661 J
- 35. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1397088 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1344947 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/348661 J
- 36. WHY WE NEED ESTIMATES Plan Even the best laid plans... Project A Project B Project C April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 “We’re going to have “We need a few “BUG! Fix ASAP!” to work the weekend to extra adjustments” fix this!” :( J
- 37. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget $ € €€ $ $ $ $€ $ € € ? “stuff customer wants” “customer’s budget” J
- 38. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 ? 500 J
- 39. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 €???? €???? ? 500 J
- 40. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget €60 €30 €100 €120 €50 J
- 41. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget €60 €30 €100 €120 $ € €€ $ €50 $ $ $€ $ € € J
- 42. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget €60 €30 €100 10-20 30 -40 €120 $ € €€ $ $ 80 -120 10 -20 €50 $ $€ $ € € J
- 43. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget We think this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120 J
- 44. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget We think this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120 April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 J
- 45. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget We know this is I’m sure! accurate... €120 80 -120 April May 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 J
- 46. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget Complexity €100 Familiarity 80 -120 Dependency 80-120 J
- 47. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also risk Value Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk J
- 48. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also risk Value Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk J
- 49. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also risk Value Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk J
- 50. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also risk Value Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk J
- 51. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget The sweet spot, Brings a lot of low hanging fruit value but also risk Value Postpone, change Not a lot of gain or discard Effort / Risk J
- 52. WHY DO WE NEED THEM $ € Budget €50 €120 10 -20 C €100 A 40 -60 80 -120 €60 B Value €50 10 -20 D 30 -40 E €40 €30 80 -120 G 10-20 F Effort / Risk J
- 53. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate Communication as in ... http://bit.ly/1008C8p S
- 54. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate Communication as in ... Are we on the same page? http://bit.ly/1008C8p S
- 55. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate Do they Do they understand how understand what complex this we’re trying to design is? achieve? S
- 56. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate 4,500 - 5,500 2,500??? Do they 2,500 - 3,500 really understand the risks and complexities? RFP 6,500 - 7,000 S
- 57. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate €40,000 €40,000 S
- 58. WHY DO WE NEED THEM Communicate S
- 59. MANAGING THE UNFORESEEN S
- 60. MANAGING THE UNFORESEEN RISK S
- 61. MANAGING RISK Risk “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” - Warren Buffett S
- 62. MANAGING RISK Risk What’s the point of Risk Management? To help you assess risks to your estimation, and align the numbers to manage that risk. Avoid car wrecks S
- 63. MANAGING RISK Risk 05 ? Identification ? Assessment Mitigation S
- 64. MANAGING RISK Risk ? Identification ? 05 S
- 65. MANAGING RISK Risk ? Identification ? 05 The usual suspects… HEY, NOT MY PROBLEM! THE API IS STABLE! THERE´S A MODULE FOR THAT! ISN’T IT OOTB? UI IS EASY TO CHANGE! S J
- 66. MANAGING RISK Risk Assessment 05 Composite risk rating Impact Probability × =8 It’s an opportunity to evaluate risk in order to decide how to treat it. http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1196348 http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1120986 S
- 67. MANAGING RISK Risk Assessment 05 RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY RATING Shared sign on 5 5 25 Integration online booking 4 4 16 Migration legacy system 2 4 8 Asteroid hitting the Earth 1E+21 0.000000001 Hey! Don’t forget about us! http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1338362 S J
- 68. MANAGING RISK Risk Assessment 05 Overall risk assessment: Low 1-8, Medium 9-16 or High 17-25 LOW MEDIUM HIGH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 IGNORE QUARTERLY MONTHLY WEEKLY DAILY Overall risk monitoring, a continual process. S
- 69. MANAGING RISK Risk Assessment 05 DUDE, WTF? Meh Meh seriously Dude, seriously SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY? the api is stable 5 ASTEROID VIDEO COMPONENT 4 INTEGRATION Impact 3 2 MIGRATION 1 1 2 3 4 5 Probability S
- 70. MANAGING RISK Risk Mitigation 05 Accept risk - no action Eliminate risk Limit risk Share risk S J
- 71. MANAGING RISK Risk 05 THE F RONT FROM L INES ‘Just trust us’ A TRUE RISK MITIGATIO N STORY http://bit.ly/100ffI1 S
- 73. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 05 Ball Park Top-Down Weighted Estimate Delphi Methods J
- 74. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES Ball Park Top-Down 05 s Requ irement o r I want t • As a use create to be able s b log post to r I want • As a use edit blog to be able posts to r I want sh • As a use un/publi to be able ? sts blog po J
- 75. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES Weighted Estimate 05 Task Est Conf Low - Hi Blog listing view 1 4 0.7 - 1.5 Blog Blog post 1 4 0.7 - 1.5 Comments 1 4 0.7 - 1.5 Create views Create rules Theming Test Redirect user 2 3 1-4 Redirect user Blog listing after making Blog front page post Show message 2 3 1-4 Showing Blog post message Post pages ... Comments Comment listing 300 - 450 Create a post form J
- 76. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES Delphi Methods 05 J
- 77. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 05 When should I use what? Ball Park Top-Down Weighted Estimation Delphi General Strategy Specific Features When Estimate Ranges Decisions > Accuracy Several Experts Pros: Easy/Fast Pros: Variance Range Pros: Smarter/Accurate Why Cons: Short-term Cons: Takes time Cons: Feature Specific Helps for decision making Helps level-set expectations Helps validate theories J
- 78. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES 05 100% Actual accuracy of the estimate vs Estimator’s confidence in the accuracy of the estimate Time and effort spent J
- 79. ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES The dont’s • Don’t play the blame game • Don’t estimate what you cannot know – requirements are like icebergs • Don’t estimate in a vacuum http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1001938
- 80. TAKE AWAYS • Management by estimate == bad idea • Estimates should include much more than just development • Estimates are more than just numbers • Use risk management to avoid problems you can identify http://www.flickr.com/photos/jakeliefer/290510226/
- 81. TACK! GRACIAS! DANKE! Thanks everyone!
- 82. ASK AWAY Who’s got funny graphic goes questions? here http://interspeciesfriends.blogspot.de/2008/08/curious-kitten-and-ducklings.html
- 83. TALK TO US Shannon Vettes Twitter: @svettes shannonvettes@gmail.com Jakob Persson Twitter: @realsolipsist jakob.persson@gmail.com