These are the slides from my session at DrupalCon Chicago. Session description: Almost all clients who approach you about a project want to know up front what the total cost will be. They hand you some loose notes and expect a fixed number of hours or price. To many this presents an impossible task. What is often forgotten is that an exact estimate isn't expected. What you need to produce is one that is accurate enough to close the sale. In this talk I will introduce an early estimation method. Using it we're able to tell a client early on the expected size of a project and close sales faster. It allows us to provide estimates early on helping clients to make early decisions regarding the scope and focus of the project. In this session you will learn how to: - Use fixed estimates to manage uncertainty - Break requirements down into features - Drafting rough Drupal solutions for features - Estimate based on experience instead of guesswork

1. Getting Early Estimates Right
Jakob Persson

2. Introducing me
Lead Drupal Solutions Architect
Co-Founder of NodeOne
Worked with Drupal since 2005
jakob@nodeone.se
http://www.twitter.com/realsolipsist
http://drupal.org/user/37564
STOCKHOLM | GOTHENBURG | COPENHAGEN www.nodeone.se

3. Introducing
am and clients
So me of No deOne’s te
Scandinavia’s largest
Drupal services
provider
Employs 39 people
Offices in Sweden
and Denmark

4. What we do at NodeOne,
apart from...

5. card games...
Hi, I’m
Dries!*
* No he’s not really Dries,
but you knew that already.
www.drupalcardgame.com

6. Druplicons wielding nun-
chuks...
Druplicon Road Trip – “Showdown in Paris” (YouTube)

7. Drupal rock stars...
“The Kitten Killers” Live at DrupalCon Copenhagen (photo by Dries)

8. Pilot studies
Design and usability
Development
Hosting and scalability
Training
Consulting

9. Early estimating
“There’s no point in being exact about something
if you don’t even know what you’re talking about.”
— John von Neumann

13. frustrated!

14. frustrated!
bored...

15. frustrated!
bored...
uncertain?!

16. What is an early estimate?

17. “Estimation is the calculated approximation of a
result which is usable even if input data may be
incomplete or uncertain.”
Source: Wikipedia

18. Use
less
!
http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1259850

19. http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1259850
Use
less
!
Project X
Project Y
≠ Project ?

20. Early estimates vs in-
project estimates
Early In-project
Target Feature User story
Decide on
Purpose investment
Planning
Accuracy Low to medium High
Method Expert Team

21. Effort and accuracy
100%
Accuracy
Effort
Adapted from “Agile Estimating and Planning”, Cohn 2008

22. Early estimates
• Can be made in relatively short time
• Generates estimates that aren’t based on
random guesses or chance
• Lets you use your experience as a yardstick
and reference

23. How early estimates are made

24. “Divide et impera”,
how’s that for a
strategy?

25. # Title Estimate DoE Solution
1
2 A spreadsheet
3
4
– and possibly also –
A Drupal-devoted
developer
Dick Olsson, kick-ass Drupal developer at NodeOne

26. The method

27. Timebox your estimation work
Analyze the requirements
Make initial guesstimate
Extract features and write proposed solutions
Estimate features
Take uncertainty and errors into account
Compare with guesstimate

28. Tim
eb
ox
An
aly
ze
req
uir
em
en
Ini ts
tia
l gu
ess
ti m
ate
Ex
tra
ct
fea
t ure
s
Est
im
ate
fea
t ure
s
Un
cer
tai
nty
and
err
or
Co
mp s
are
w ith
gue
sst
im
ate

29. TIMEBOX ESTIMATION WORK

30. ANALYZE THE REQUIREMENTS
From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

31. ANALYZE THE REQUIREMENTS
From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
C heck o ut the sample
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
requirements for the
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
k d irector y site at:
Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
lin
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
http://bit.ly/
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
rupalestimating
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
d
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

32. MAKE INITIAL GUESSTIMATE
“BETWEEN THUMB AND INDEX FINGER”

33. EXTRACT FEATURES AND
WRITE SOLUTIONS
From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John

34. The sample requirements for the link directory
website can also be found on the web:
http://bit.ly/drupalestimating

35. Feature A 2
Feature B 10
Feature C 1
are broken
Requirements
down into Feature D 20
Feature E 5
Feature F 1

36. Definition of a Feature

37. Definition of a Feature
A conceptually and contextually discrete
piece of the final deliverables with an
estimated proposed solution

38. Link directory sample requirements:
http://bit.ly/drupalestimating

39. From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

40. From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
“Our site is a link directory Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
where people with awesomely links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
cool sites can post links to costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
their sites” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

41. From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
“Our site is a link directory Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
where people with awesomely links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
cool sites can post links to costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
their sites” The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
1 Nodetype: Link It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

42. 1 Nodetype: Link From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
“Also, administrators must be able to
approve links posted. Admins should Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
get an email when links are added so pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
they can go and check.”
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
email when links are added so they can go and check.
We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
be over secure connection.
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

43. 1 Nodetype: Link From: johndoe@awesomecoolwebsites.com
To: You
Subject: Link directory on Drupal
Hey,
We're looking into moving our site awesomecoolwebsites.com to drupal and wonder
how much it would cost. We would like to get rid of the proprietary software we
use and have more flexibility. Drupal seems to be the best choice for us.
“Also, administrators must be able to
approve links posted. Admins should Our site is a link directory where people with awesomely cool sites can post
links to their sites. The directory is divided into categories and people can
get an email when links are added so pay for premium exposure. We also have something called "link of the day" which
costs $50 and puts a link to your site on the front page.
they can go and check.”
The site has a blog where we post updates and business articles on a regular
basis. This blog is written by several people and they can only be able to edit
their own blog posts. Though they should be able to add other users who can edit
their posts so that they can cooperate on a post.
We're not planning on migrating content but we're offshoring the work and all
old links will be added manually. We want to tag content too and we think it's
Users add links which are best to migrate manually and do the tagging at the same time.
2 unpublished before approved It's important that it's super easy to post new links and comment on blog posts.
when you add a link you get a user account. Unless you have one already.
Also, administrators must be able to approve links posted. Admins should get an
Administrators are notified email when links are added so they can go and check.
3 We want captcha so that automated postings are prevented.
when links are added
When you buy a premium link you pay with credit card, we have a processor for
this and drupal needs to integrate with them. It's important that users feel
Administrators can view and super safe when submitting links. For this reason the whole submit process must
4 be over secure connection.
approve links
We plan on launching the new drupalized site in the next six months.
Looking forward to your quote.
Sincerely,
John
Website Manager

45. 14 Featured link on the front page A view displaying a single node of type “Featured”

46. 1 Nodetype: Link
2 Users add links which are unpublished before approved
3 Administrators are notified when links are added
4 Administrators can view and approve links

47. # Description Proposed solution
Create a node type called link and use the Link module for the
1 Nodetype: Link
link field.
Users add links which are Use Flag and Rules modules to create a workflow. The workflow
2
unpublished before approved sets a newly created Link node as unpublished.
Administrators are notified Workflow created with Rules, it sends an email to the webmaster
3
when links are added once a link node is created.
Administrators can view and A list of unpublished nodes of type “link”, created using the Views
4
approve links module.

48. -30%

49. -30%

50. Do this
Code less
Use the UI instead

51. By: http://www.sxc.hu/profile/agentoseis
Get this
Future-proof
your website
Enjoy a safe
upgrade path
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jns001/2958140977/

52. Estimation sheet with sample requirements
http://bit.ly/estimationsheet3

53. Estimation Sheet Template
http://bit.ly/estimationtemplate3

54. Number
Description
Estimate
Degree of Experience
Proposed Solution
Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Users add links which are unpublished
2 2 5 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
before approved
created Link node as unpublished.

55. Number
Description
Estimate
Degree of Experience
Proposed Solution
Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Users add links which are unpublished
2 2 5 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
before approved
created Link node as unpublished.

56. ESTIMATING FEATURES

57. • Development
• Writing automated tests
• Configuration
• Testing
• Fixing bugs
• Deploying to staging server

58. Estimating using a scale
• Scale of fixed number of hours
• Only use numbers from the scale.
• Always round up
1 2 4 8 16

59. Popular scale 1 2 4 8 16

60. Popular scale 1 2 4 8 16
Scale I use 1 2 5

61. Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Administrators are notified when links
3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
are added
created Link node as unpublished.

62. Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Administrators are notified when links
3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
are added
created Link node as unpublished.
~ 3 hours (ideally)

63. Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Administrators are notified when links
3 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
are added
created Link node as unpublished.
~ 3 hours (ideally)
2 5

64. Use Flag and Rules modules to create a
Administrators are notified when links
3
are added 5 workflow. The workflow sets a newly
created Link node as unpublished.
~ 3 hours (ideally)
2 5

65. Factor 0.1
Scale I use Factor 1 1 2 5
Factor 10 10 20

66. Factor 0.1
Factor 1 1 2 5
Factor 10 10 20

67. Changing settings or setting
Factor 0.1
configuration
Factor 1 1 2 5
Factor 10 10 20
Add a user reference field to Article
Co-authors for articles 0.2
node type

68. Changing settings or setting
Factor 0.1
configuration
Building functionality using Drupal’s
Factor 1 1 2 5
user interface
Factor 10 10 20
List of most popular user profiles based Add a user reference field to and sorts it
A view listing Profile nodes Article
Co-authors for articles 0.2
1
on number of guestbook entries node type the number of comments each
based on
has

69. Changing settings or setting
Factor 0.1
configuration
Building functionality using Drupal’s
Factor 1 1 2 5
user interface
Developing new modules or themes Factor 10 10 20
AWrite listing Profile field to and sorts it
view a reference nodes Article
Add a usermodule that POSTs the user’s
List of most popular user profiles based
Co-authors userarticles with mailing list 0.2
Integrate for accounts 110 node type the number of comments each
based on
email address to the provider’s REST API
on number of guestbook entries
service provider has
when the user registers.

70. 50+

71. goo
Estimating
http://www.sxc.hu/photo/716594

72. TAKING UNCERTAINTY
AND ERRORS INTO
ACCOUNT

73. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
Estimate 1.25x
1.0x
error 0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x
Resolution of decisions in
the course of a project

74. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x

75. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x
Rough idea
0.25x - 4x

76. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x
Rough idea User Interface Design Complete
0.25x - 4x 0.8x - 1.25x

77. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x

78. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x

79. The cone of uncertainty
4x
2x
1.5x
1.25x
1.0x
0.8x
0.67x
0.5x
0.25x

80. Annonsera | Kontakta oss | In English
Sök
Maria Jakobsson | Min profil
Nyheter Bli medlem Engagera dig Aktiviteter Career Service Partners Reversen Om oss Logg ut
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82. Chaotic development

83. Chaotic development
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well

84. Chaotic development
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix
ing
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well

85. Chaotic development
Inexperi
enced pe
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix r sonnel
ing
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well

86. Chaotic development
Inexperi
enced pe
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix r sonnel
ing
Incomplete or unskilled project planning
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well

87. Chaotic development
g under pressure
Abandoning plannin
Inexperi
enced pe
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix r sonnel
ing
Incomplete or unskilled project planning
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well

88. Chaotic development
g under pressure
Abandoning plannin
Inexperi
enced pe
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix r sonnel
ing
Incomplete or unskilled project planning
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well
Developer gold-plating

89. Chaotic development
g under pressure
Abandoning plannin
Inexperi
enced pe
Poor coding practices cause extensive bug fix r sonnel
ing
Lack of automated source code control
Incomplete or unskilled project planning
Requirements that
weren’t investigate
d very well
Developer gold-plating

90. Overlooked activities

91. Overlooked activities
Migration of data
Producing help or documentation
Deployment
Integrating third party systems
Working with a third party

92. Overlooked
expectations

93. Performance

94. Stability

95. Security

96. Usability

97. Unfounded optimism
“You never have to fear that estimates created
by developers will be too pessimistic, because
developers will always generate a too-
optimistic schedule.”
– Chris Peters, Microsoft Vice President

98. Off-the-cuff estimation

99. Off-the-cuff estimation

100. Assume for clarity
Make an assumption and communicate it:
“I’m not sure what you mean by ‘integrated user
bookmark blogging’ so I assume you mean this, and
that’s what I’ve estimated.”

101. Avoid uncertain solutions

102. Avoid uncertain solutions
Base solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps if
available.

103. Avoid uncertain solutions
Base solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps if
available.
Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.

104. Avoid uncertain solutions
Base solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps if
available.
Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.
Researching solutions by googling, reading articles and
blog posts.

105. Avoid uncertain solutions
Base solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps if
available.
Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.
Researching solutions by googling, reading articles and
blog posts.
Prototyping solutions in Drupal.

106. Avoid uncertain solutions
Base solutions on wireframes and mockups or comps if
available.
Proposing well-tested solutions you have used before.
Researching solutions by googling, reading articles and
blog posts.
Prototyping solutions in Drupal.
Avoiding solutions that require integration with
unknown third-party solutions.

107. Factoring in solution
uncertainty

108. Degrees of experience
You have done the exact same thing in other projects.
Someone else at your company has done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve it.
You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement a solution.

109. Degrees of experience
5 You have done the exact same thing in other projects.
Someone else at your company has done it in other
4
projects.
3 You have read about it a way to solve it.
You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/
2
possible.
1 You have no idea how to implement a solution.

110. # Description Est Degree of Exp. Proposed solution
Create a node type called link and
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 use the Link module for the link
field.
Use Flag and Rules modules to
2
Users add links which are
unpublished before approved
2 4 create a workflow. The workflow
sets a newly created Link node as
unpublished.
Workflow created with Rules, it
3
Administrators are notified
when links are added
5 3 sends an email to the webmaster
once a link node is created.
A list of unpublished nodes of type
4
Administrators can view and
approve links
2 5 “link”, created using the Views
module.

111. Degrees of experience
Deg. Description
5 You have done the exact same thing in other projects.
4 Someone else at your company has done it in other projects.
3 You have read about it a way to solve it.
2 You can think of a solution that seems reasonable/possible.
1 You have no idea how to implement a solution.

112. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

113. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

114. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

115. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

116. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

117. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4
done it in other projects.
RESEARCH IT! 3
You have read about it a way to solve
it.
You can think of a solution that
2
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

118. Degree of experience
Deg. Description U
You have done the exact same thing
5
4x
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
2x 4
done it in other projects.
1.5x
1.25x You have read about it a way to solve
1.0x 3
0.8x it.
0.67x
You can think of a solution that
0.5x 2
seems reasonable/possible.
0.25x
You have no idea how to implement
1
a solution.

119. Degree of experience
Deg. Description Uncertainty factor
You have done the exact same thing
5 0.8x - 1.25x
in other projects.
Someone else at your company has
4 0.67x - 1.5x
done it in other projects.
You have read about it a way to solve
3 0.5x - 2x
it.
You can think of a solution that
2 0.25x - 4x
seems reasonable/possible.
You have no idea how to implement
1 -
a solution.

120. # Description Est Degree of Exp. Range Low High Pro
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
unp
Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
A li
Administrators can view and 2 × 0.8 = 1.6 “lin
4
approve links
2 5 2 × 1.25 = 2.5
1.6 2.5
mo

121. # Description Est Degree of Exp. Range Low High Pro
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
unp
Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
A li
Administrators can view and 2 × 0.8 = 1.6 “lin
4
approve links
2 5 2 × 1.25 = 2.5
1.6 2.5
mo

122. # Description Est Degree of Exp. Range Low High Pro
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
unp
Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
A li
Administrators can view and 2 × 0.8 = 1.6 “lin
4
approve links
2 5 2 × 1.25 = 2.5
1.6 2.5
mo

123. # Description Est Degree of Exp. Range Low High Pro
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
unp
Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
A li
Administrators can view and 2 × 0.8 = 1.6 “lin
4
approve links
2 5 2 × 1.25 = 2.5
1.6 2.5
mo

124. ee of
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Summing up estimates Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
unp
Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
191 147 271

125. ee of
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Summing up estimates Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
Summary of unp
ideal estimates Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
191 147 271

126. ee of
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Summing up estimates Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
Summary of unp
ideal estimates Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 Sum range high an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
191 147 271

127. ee of
1 × 0.8 = 0.8 Cre
1 Nodetype: Link 1 5 1 × 1.25 = 1.25
0.8 1.25
the
Summing up estimates Use
Users add links which are 2 × 0.67 = 1.34 aw
2
unpublished before approved
2 4 2 × 1.5 = 3
1.34 3
new
Summary of unp
ideal estimates Wo
Administrators are notified 5 × 0.5 = 2.5 Sum range high an e
3
when links are added
5 3 5 × 2 = 10
2.5 10
nod
191 147 271
Sum range low

128. Symmetrical uncertainty
Low uncertainty
Low High
0.8x 1.25x
Ideal
estimate

129. Symmetrical uncertainty
High uncertainty
Low High
0.25x 4x
Ideal
estimate

130. Asymmetrical uncertainty
Or: it can only get worse!
Low High
1x 4x
Ideal
estimate

131. Pessimistic Optimistic
Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical
1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.5
2 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.4
3 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.3
4 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2
5 0.8 1.25 1 1.25 0.91 1.1 1 1.1

132. Pessimistic Optimistic
Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical
1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.5
2 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.4
3 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.3
4 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2
5 0.8 1.25 1 1.25 0.91 1.1 1 1.1

133. Pessimistic Optimistic
Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical
1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.5
2 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.4
3 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.3
4 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2
5 0.8 1.25 1 1.25 0.91 1.1 1 1.1

134. Symmetrical uncertainty
Pessimistic Optimistic
Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical
1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.5
2 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.4
3 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.3
4 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2

135. Asymmetrical uncertainty
Pessimistic Optimistic
Symmetrical Asymmetrical Symmetrical Asymmetrical
1 0.17 6 1 6 0.67 1.5 1 1.5
2 0.25 4 1 4 0.71 1.4 1 1.4
3 0.5 2 1 2 0.77 1.3 1 1.3
4 0.67 1.5 1 1.5 0.83 1.2 1 1.2

136. Use the UncertaintyFactors tab in your sheet to
set factors and symmetry
Copy the above values into
the APPLIED columns to
work with asymmetrical
uncertainty

137. In the end
It's easy to estimate what you know.
It's hard to estimate what you know you don't know.
It's very hard to estimate things that you don't
know you don't know.

138. Overhead time
Administration and project management 1.25x
Testing 1.15x

139. COMPARE WITH GUESSTIMATE
???
ho
ur
s

140. Start big, reduce later

141. Awareness of time

142. Culture

143. If unsure, ask an expert

145. Recommended reading

146. What did you think?
Locate this session on the DCC website:
http://go.nodeone.se/estimates
Click the “Take the Survey” link.
Contact me
jakob@nodeone.se
http://www.twitter.com/realsolipsist
http://drupal.org/user/37564