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2012市場展望


蘇香珍 2011/12/23
2012市場主角仍在歐元區
歐元區主債信評(2011/12)




PIIGS
歐豬五國
歐元問題的全球 化

• 歐元區的債務危機從2009年開始燃燒,在希臘、愛
  爾蘭和葡萄牙之後,義大利也面臨了巨額債務的到
  期。

• 在全球化的經濟體下,歐元主權債問題已不再局限
  於歐元區,而早已跨出邊境成為了全球經濟問題。

• 各國家的借貸在經濟繁榮時問題都不大,一旦其中
  有個國家無法應付本身的貸款時,對這些國外銀行
  及金融機構的債主們將面臨龐大的損失。
這些國家的債主是誰?




http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
Ireland
Italy
Italy refinancing needs- next 2 years




                           Source: Absolute return partners
Time bombs in Italy , Spain




         Source: www.spiegel.de/international/business/bild-801071-287703.html
這些國家的債務不是短期的問題,尤其是希臘




           http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html
義大利將到期的債券更不是小數目




        http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html
西班牙




  http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fotostrecke-54629.html
EU: Average Debt Maturity




        http://www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/eu-average-debt-maturity.html
PIIGS Refinancing Per Year (-2014) and Per Month (-2013)


•   For Ireland, Greece and Portugal the interest rates have been rising since last year
    to unpayable highs. That's why they are financing its debt through the EFSF and
    the IMF at the moment. The interest rates for Italy and Spain have been rising
    lately as well.

    Together these five countries (debt redemption, interest payments, primary
    balance deficits and bank recapitalisations) have to lend 1500 billion euro's in the
    next three years.




                                Source: www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/piigs-refinancing-per-year-2014-and-per.html
The refinancing needs for these countries in the next 14 months.




                       Source: www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/piigs-refinancing-per-year-2014-and-per.html
Euro area: Sovereign spreads vs. 10Y Bonds




                                   http://www.economicsinpictures.com/2011/11/house-prices-around-world-us-house.html


This chart shows the Government Bond Spreads (difference between interest rates of
10 year government bodns of the selected countries verser the interest rate of
german bonds). You can see that for some of the countries these spreads are higher
than they were in the years before.
義大利10年期公債殖利率升破7%




http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/bild-801071-287703.html
只是,歐債不只是歐盟的事
亞洲只佔一小部份
新興市場對歐元區的出口
經濟日報

• 歐洲央行(European Central Bank)最近一次長期再融資操作
  獲得了4,890億歐元的投標﹐不僅遠高於預期﹐而且創下了歐
  洲央行所有流動性工具獲得投標的最高紀錄。這將確保金
  融業在新年後的相當一段時間延續平靜祥和的氣氛﹐但不知
  道能否帶來長久的解決之道。

• 這筆資金約佔了歐洲銀行一年到期金額的2/3, 因而有效舒
  緩了金融市場短期的壓力.

• 市場反應義大利10年期公債殖利率上升0.12%到 6,69%.
  西班牙公債殖利率跳升0.17%到5.2%

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2012歐債危機及市場展望