It is time for reality check in Cyber Conflicts and Cyber Warfare.

1. .
McAfee Confidential
.
Jarno Limnéll | Director of Cyber Security
Professor of Cyber Security in Aalto University
Doctor of Military Science
Twitter: @JarnoLim
Cyber Conflicts –
Time for Reality Check

2. “We are about three warm meals
away from anarchy/revolution?”

3. Security FEELING
RESILIENCEREALITY

4. FEELING:
HOW (SECURE) DO WE FEEL?

6. REALITY:
HOW THINGS REALLY ARE?

7. SECURITY ENVIRONMENT –
PHYSICAL AND DIGITAL
– IS MORE UNCERTAIN, DYNAMIC AND
MORE DEMANDING THAN EVER

8. RESILIENCE:
HOW WE WITHSTAND PHYSICALLY AND MENTALLY
INSECURITY – HOW DO WE VALUE OUR SECURITY?

9. Complete security is a myth,
Known – Unknown threats
Instead of (only) building walls,
”Defense in depth”

10. Ability to change
and resilience
create security.
Not constancy.

11. Security under the Cyber Dome
The Digital world is effecting everywhere

12. Everybody and
everything is
becoming
CONNECTED
Dependence

14. 14
THE DIGITAL WORLD OF BITS
DIGITAL AND PHYSICAL BLUR

16. Returningbackto “typewritersage”?
No. But securityistaken(hopefully)more serious.

17. The digital world is everywhere.
So must be Security.
Like whisked egg in the cake.

18. There is no issue so important in security –
which remains so poorly understood…

19. Cybersecurity is primarily a strategic issue
GUIDANCE

20. The importance of combining technological
and strategic thinking
-
both are needed in order to have
comprehensive approach to cybersecurity,
its threats and solutions

21. Cyber conflict?

22. “Cyberwar” should be used carefully…
…not separated from the context of War

23. Cyber is already and will be an element of all cris
we’re going to see in the future

24. "Every age has its
own kind of war,
its own limiting
conditions
and its own peculiar
preconceptions.”
Carl von Clausewitz
Continuation of politics
by other means,
incl. cyber means in
”policy toolbox”

25. IN THE SHADOWS,
3 levels of cyber activities
Lower level cyber activities
Digital information “war”
Strategic cyber attacks

26. US Department of Defense’s
3 types of Cyber threats:

27. 27
Lack of precedents,
Cyber playbook is pretty
empty (at the moment)

28. THE FIFTH DOMAIN
or penetrating all levels and dimensions?
LAND SEA
SPACEAIR
CYBER

29. Cyber needs to be considered as part of
broader military strategy

30. Strategic challenges
How integrate Cyber to other military
operations and broader concept?
Outsourcing Cyber attacks – how
to respond?
The problem of attribution – who
is your enemy?

31. NATO – Cyber – Article 5

32. Threat,
Resources

33. 1. Cyberattacks, cyber-espionage
2. Counterintelligence
3. Terrorism
4. WMD Profiliferation
5. Counterspace

34. DefenseNews Leadership Poll,
January 2014

35. Threat evaluation
WHO (actor/condition) produces the threat?
WHY (motivation)?
How serious is the IMPACT?

36. Cyber arms
race
Accelerating

38. NOT ONLY NATION-STATES
There are 20 to 30 cybercrime groups that have
nation-state level capacity

39. “You are the cyber-war
agents and get yourself
ready for such war
wholeheartedly.”
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
“Cyber will soon be
revealed to be the biggest
revolution in warfare,
more than gunpowder and
the utilization of air power
in the last century.”Major General Aviv Kochavi, IDF

40. “We don't need more tanks,
we need the latest in cyber
warfare.”
UK Prime Minister David Cameron
“U.S. Cyber Command will
number more than 6,000
people by 2016, making it
one of the largest such -
forces in the world.”US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel

41. The world is moving towards a
greater strategic use of cyber
to persuade adversaries to
change their behavior.
Capability and will.

42. What restraints the use of strategic cyber
capabilities?
Unpredictable side-effects
Do not expose capabilities
Possible escalation

43. Resources are needed, but in cyber big brains are
more important than big brawn…

45. 5 Strategic Trends
to Follow

46. 1
The Role of
Cyber Espionage

47. WHO’S SPYING ON WHOM?

48. Does intelligence
collection or cyber
reconnaissance become
an act of war?

49. 2
Measuring
Cyber
Capabilities

50. Level of Cyber
capabilities?
SUSPICION

51. Digital dependence - Defensive
Informational - Intelligence
Offensive capabilities
Resilience (physical, mental)
R&D and innovation capabilities
Doctrine, Policy
A country’s cyber military strength
can be judged by six capabilities:

53. 3
Grey area

54. Beginning – End
Our side – Their side
Military – Civilian
Involved – Not-involved
Win – Lose
Violence – Non-violence
Hardware – Software

55. 4
Cyber
Deterrence

56. ELEMENTS OF
CYBER
DETERRENCE
RESILIENCE
ATTRIBUTION
OFFENSE

57. Countries will expose
offensive cyber capabilities
more openly – because of
deterrence

58. 5
Cyber Peace

59. THE TREND IS OFFENSIVE
The main question is not how to get rid of it
but how to live with it!

60. The most
important
question in
(cyber)
security?

61. TRUST

62. On the road to distrust?
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Internet
becomes a mass
phenomenon
WEB 2.0
is born
JOURNEY FROM THE WORLD OF ATOMS TO THE WORLD OF BITS
We are here
We choose
either
LEADERSHIP or
CRISIS…
2014
The zone of
distrust
The zone of trust
Familiar, accepted norms
Old norms are adjusted
to cope with the “brave
new world”
The need for new
norms and ways of
thinking

63. Are we the last generation to take
joy from the global Internet?
The internet has changed the
way we change our world

64. Security - Privacy

66. CYBER SECURITY IS BECOMING MORE PERSONAL

67. 67
It is a right to get work email on
a personally owned device

68. What is already out there?

69. THANK YOU!
jarno_limnell@mcafee.com