Scrumban Demystified

1. SCRUMBAN DEMYSTIFIED MORE THAN JUST SCRUM + KANBAN Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

2. Section 1 of 8 Foundations Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

3. Agile Recap Principles of Agile Behavior  Business value focus  Dynamic requirements management  Direct, active communication  Direct Business / IT collaboration  Develop working increments  Sustainable pace  Simplicity and direct utility  Continuous improvement  Motivated, empowered teams  Technical excellence  Self-organizing teams  Success is working solution Characteristics of Agile Practice  Balanced value/risk prioritization  Incremental planning & development  Low ceremony; high productivity  Hierarchy of adaptive planning  Rapid feedback cycles  Regular rhythms  Clear definitions of “done”  Information radiators  Multidisciplinary teams  Peer development and review  Collaborative, shared responsibilities  Automation of build, integration & test  Regular reflection and improvement Agile is a combination of principles & practices These principles & practices represent a significant body of knowledge 3 Designed for responsiveness, quality, innovation & scale Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

4. Lean Recap Principles of Lean Behavior  Relentlessly eliminate waste • Muda – useless or superfluous • Mura – irregular or inconsistent • Muri – excessive or unreasonable  Continuously amplify learning • Kaizen – improvement or drive to excel  Decide as late as possible  Deliver as early as possible  Empower the team, with support  Build quality in, from the outset  Optimize the whole, not just part Characteristics of Lean Practice  Balanced value/risk prioritization  Continuous planning & development  Low ceremony; high productivity  Simple, focused, adaptive planning  Rapid feedback cycles  Workflow-driven rhythm  Minimal work-in-progress  Information radiators (kanban tokens)  Teams structured to the work  Peer development and review  Collaborative, shared responsibilities  Automation of build/integration & test  Regular reflection & improvement Introto Lean Designed for responsiveness, quality, regularity & consistency. Agile & Lean principles & practices are complementary 4 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

5. Kanban ”...Kanban (capital K) is the evolutionary change method that utilizes a kanban (small k) pull system, visualization, and other tools to catalyze the introduction of Lean ideas into technology development and IT operations” David J. Anderson, Kanban, 2010 5 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

6. 6 The Inter-relationships Visualized Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

7. Section 2 of 8 Kanban Clarified Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

8. WIP Limits Backlog Defined In-Progress Done Accepted Blocked Blocked Limit = 12 Limit = 4 Limit = 3 Limit = ∞ Limit = ∞ 1 4 3 2 A Visual Information Radiator 8 What Most People Associate with Kanban Value Stream Pull Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

9. ajay@codegenesys.com @ajrdy Official Licensed Material Copyright David J. Anderson & Associates Inc. and Code Genesys, LLC Dynamic - always changing Cascading effects camouflage causation Amplification & dampening effects make impact of actions difficult to predict Apply synthesis to understand and manage the complexity Weightier understandings are required It’s a Little More Involved Systems Thinking… Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

10. ajay@codegenesys.com @ajrdy Official Licensed Material Copyright David J. Anderson & Associates Inc. and Code Genesys, LLC … and Thinking Systems Create adaptive capabilities Connects those adaptive capabilities to changes in your business environment. Example - Toyota’s Quality Circles • Optional • Collaborative • Focused • Empirical • Common method Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

11. Defining & Visualizing Closed Systems: Kanban Underneath the Surface Inputs • who generates work demands? • How does work reach you? • How much work is demanded, and how often does it arrive? Outputs • What is state of completed work? • Who is work delivered to? • How much work is delivered and how frequently? Process • When & where does responsibility for work begin and end? • What steps / phases does it pass through? • Are phases the same for all work types? Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

12. 100% resource utilization = 0% throughput Henrik Kniberg Max utilization, Slow flow Lower utilization, Faster flow 12 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Limiting WIP Utilization vs. Throughput

13. Lean Concepts Waiting times double between 80% to 90% utilization and then double again from 90% to 95% utilization. Source : Six Myths of Product Development Harvard Business Review, May 2012 Donald Reinertsen & Stefan Tomke 13 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Limiting WIP Utilization & Wait Times

14. Source : Implementing Lean Software Development; Mary & Tom Poppendieck 14 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Enabling Flow Efficiency

15. 15 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Source : Implementing Lean Software Development; Mary & Tom Poppendieck Enabling Flow Efficiency

16. Kanban is a Complementary Framework 1. Supports and Improves Existing Processes 2. Enables More Reliable Forecasting / Predictability 3. Enhances Employee Involvement & Satisfaction 4. Integrates Methodical and Disciplined Techniques as Part of an Active Management Framework 5. Improves Re-prioritization 6. Transparency of System Design & Operations 7. Fosters Emergence of “Higher Maturity” Teams 16 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

17. Section 3 of 8 Kanban Metrics Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

18. Core Measurements Measure the Right Things. Give them an Appropriate Weight Measure with an Appropriate Degree of Certainty & Precision Make Sense of the Data - Disciplined Collection and Analysis Kanban’s Bias on Measurements Scrumban visualizes and leverages Kanban’s additional metrics within the Scrum context! Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

19. Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD) CFD shows the quantities of work in progress (WIP) at each stage in the system. CFD is a visual representation of Little’s Law. Average Lead Time = Average Work in Progress / Average Throughput Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

20. Lead Time Histogram Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

21. Throughput as an Indicator of Continuous Improvement Throughput represents the number of work items delivered in a given time period. -- used as an indicator of how well the organization is performing -- demonstrates continuous improvement Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

22. Flow Efficiency as a Measure of Potential Improvement 5-40% • Calculated as touch time against lead time. • It indicates how much room there is for improvement by eliminating waste without changing engineering methods. Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

23. Section 4 of 8 Kanban & Active Risk Management Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

24. • Kanban seeks to actively identify, manage and set appropriate expectations around work / work types with different risk characteristics. • 3 areas upon which risk is commonly evaluated • market-based • work-based • environment-based • Cost of Delay functions are easily integrated into a Kanban system’s visualizations & metrics • Major distinction from Scrum framework • embeds purposeful risk management as an added dimension • visualization and active management facilitates local optimization (vs. premature optimization such as commitments in form of Sprint Backlog) Actively Managing Risk Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

25. Common Profiles Urgent / Emergency Profile - highest risk and most immediate impact to the business. Typical policy is for all resources to immediately stop other work & expedite these items to completion. Fixed Cost Profile - medium to high risk, with immediate impact to business if completed after required delivery date. Typically associated with legal commitments & regulatory requirements. Should be selected for delivery over standard work when due dates are looming. Standard Cost Profile - medium risk with a shallow and immediate impact. The typical policy around such items are to process them on a First-In-First-Out basis. Common Risk Profiles Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

26. Common Profiles Intangible / Investment Cost Profile - almost no risk with a low to moderate impact on the organization. Typically has no measurable cost of delay in the near future, and is performed as needed so the team may continue developing with high quality and speed. Examples of such work include dealing with technical debt, emergent architectural issues, and general improvement efforts. Common Risk Profiles (cont.) Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

27. Example of Risk Visualization Enhances information upon which to make a pull decision 27 Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

28. Section 5 of 8 Scrumban Demystified Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

29. Starting Context = Scrum Source: Scrum Alliance Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

30. 75% of organizations using Scrum will not succeed in getting the benefits that they hope for from it. “ “ -Ken Schwaber, co-creator of Scrum Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Why Scrumban Matters (one reason)

31. Look at What’s Happening… Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

32. Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Visualizing Scrumban

33. The Learning Landscape • Work Items / Work Cards (user stories) • Work Size Estimate (story points) • Definition of Done (acceptance criteria) • Daily Standups • Work Type • Workflow • Pull • Ready / Buffer Columns • Blockers • Classes of Service • Capacity Allocations (explicit WIP limits proto-kanban) Concepts Familiar to Scrum Teams New Concepts Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

34. Scrumban can be adopted to help improve understanding and management of these practices: • Product Definitions (MVP / MMF) • Work Item Prioritization (less subjective evaluations) • Release Planning (more reliable forecasts) • Iteration Planning • Measuring & Managing Flow (new capability) • Story Points / Estimation (accurate correlations with product delivery) • …and more Common Targets Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

35. Scrum Roles Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • Cross-functional and self- organizing teams. • Designed to optimize flexibility, creativity and productivity. • Maximize feedback & accelerate ROI by efficiently delivering iterative Product Increments. • Team empowered to organize and manage work. • Collective responsibility fostered by discouraging sub- teams and specialization. • Psychological barriers to change. • Operate on their own versus having specific individuals direct people and processes (adapting to Scrum Master role can be particularly challenging) • Building effective cross- functional skillsets within a development team takes time and effort. • Emphasize system understanding and stability ahead of change. • Respect & retain current roles while developing a shared understanding of current work process and policies. • Work more effectively while evolving at a comfortable pace. • Aid transition to a prescribed Scrum destination or adapt roles, ceremonies and processes to a state that works best for a given systems at a given time.

36. Scrum Ceremonies Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • 4 formal events for inspection and adaption: Sprint Planning, Daily Scrum, Sprint Review and Sprint Retrospective. • Each ceremony serves a specific purpose and is essential to Scrum. • Typically involve degrees of collaboration designed to promote:  mutual understanding (transparency)  individual buy-in  shared commitment toward a commonly understood outcome  a culture of continuous improvement • Many organizations modify or omit ceremonies as a solution to exposed problems and dysfunctions (benefits Scrum would otherwise deliver are never realized). • Less mature teams tend to focus on the wrong issues and unnecessarily lengthen time investment. • Seasoned Scrum Masters can help teams learn to manage ceremonies more effectively, but individual capabilities can vary significantly and the end result is often hit or miss. • Can replace function of modified or omitted ceremonies  Teams can work more effectively in “broken” systems as they’re enabled to evolve.  Scrum-like frameworks aren’t condemned to under perform. • Reduce or eliminate time required to complete many ceremonies by effectively incorporating their functions within daily work or other mechanisms.

37. Product Backlog Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • A dynamic, ordered list of everything that might be needed in the product.  Product Owner is responsible for the content, availability and prioritization. • Maximizes transparency of key information to promote a shared understanding of work and business objectives. • Team is collectively responsible for refining backlog. • Organizations often frustrate purpose & function of P.O. role by assigning multiple individuals to serve. • Subjective prioritization & risk management techniques.  Effectiveness depends upon individual capabilities.  Inordinate focus on templating language & similar aids over value & risk. • Grouping mechanisms such as theming and slotting are invented with little business awareness. • Work demands from all sources are visualized; can be managed with greater transparency. • Scientifically based mechanisms to identify and measure risk are emphasized. • Visualized Classes of Service support JIT localized prioritization (more informed handling of work with different value & risk). • Visualization & measurement of work flow through the value stream helps overcome inordinate focus on mechanics (such as templating language).

38. Release Planning Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • Planning in an Agile context should be iterative, consistent with self-organizing teams, and support empirical process control (meaning plans emphasize insight over direction or commitment). • Agile Release Plans should be dynamic, and increase in accuracy as the results of each Sprint are incorporated. • Agile Release cycles should be kept as short as possible (definitely less than 1 year) to assure “course corrections” can be made as early as possible. • Planning and estimating in largely depend upon a single metric – velocity.  Reliable forecasting difficult to achieve as it is subjective and unique to each team.  This fundamental nature of velocity makes estimating difficult to scale. • Though it’s possible to adjust deadline, scope, resources and quality for any given project, only deadline and scope tend to be effectively controllable in most Scrum contexts. • Enhanced recognition and management of risk factors, additional metrics, and techniques allowing for probabilistic forecasting (based on Little’s Law) enhances the reliability of forecasting and improves its scalability across larger enterprises. • The integration of Options Theory and similar models into a Scrumban framework affords more flexibility with Release Planning.

39. Sprint Planning Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • Time-boxed to a maximum of 4 hours (for a 1-month Sprint). • Product Owner identifies the business objective for the Sprint and identifies Product Backlog items that will achieve this goal.  Development Team and P.O. agree upon a Sprint Goal. • Development Team forecasts functionality to develop during Sprint, and assesses what it can accomplish based on P.O.’s desires, teams projected capacity, and team’s past performance. • Assumes business priorities won’t change during Sprint. • Less mature teams often challenged to complete all work within the time-box. • Full scope of work can only be discovered as work is done. • Renegotiation of goals  Pragmatically depends on maturity of team.  Rendered theoretical because estimates are viewed as promises. • Risk of meeting business need determined by ability to achieve consensus. • Additional metrics and techniques  Enable JIT mgmt. of changing priorities  Reduce time needed to produce estimates  Improves reliability of forecasts • Supports alternative frameworks  Continuous Flow can eliminate Sprint Planning altogether.  SLAs can replace Sprint commitment as main trust mechanism. • Risk of meeting business need addressed through Lead Time SLAs and Classes of Service.

40. Sprint Time-box Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • Limited to 1 calendar month to assure a routine inspect & adapt cadence. • Short enough duration that market needs won’t change between time work is started and delivered. • Protects team from scope creep. Eliminates ad hoc work requests that interfere with productivity. • Team only commits to completing work it estimates is realistic to achieve. • Duration often established based on organizational desire for alignment, but actual nature & complexity of work can vary from team to team. • Some environments are more rapidly changing than others, meaning market needs can change during Sprint. • Insulating team from work requests is rarely pragmatic. Emergency work is a part of business and we need some mechanics for managing it. • Full scope of knowledge work only discoverable as work is performed. • Discovering & understanding the systems across which work is performed is used to set Sprint duration (or transition out of time boxed development altogether). • Prioritization & commitment to specific work not limited to the start of a time-box. • Visualization & Cost of Delay metrics (CD3) reduce subjectivity and allow for JIT prioritization throughout workflow. • Visualization of different Classes of Service improve recognition and management of different business needs.

41. Daily Stand-ups Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • 15-minute time-boxed event to synchronize activities and plan next 24 hours of work. • Optimizes the probability of meeting the Sprint Goal. • A key inspect and adapt meeting to help eliminate the need for other meetings, improve communications, promote quick decision- making and improve team’s overall knowledge. • Turn into meaningless “status” meetings rather than true synchronization & planning efforts. • Impediments managed after they manifest themselves. • Probability of meeting the Sprint Goal still subject to inherent variability of work. • Less likelihood of developing disciplined approaches for recognizing patterns with impediments because continuous improvement efforts are managed outside Scrum’s core framework. • Kanban board as a “real-time” information radiator shifts focus away from status and impediments to opportunities for inspection and adaption. • Greater focus on the work and not the worker reduces need to manage psychological barriers. • Visualization enables scaled stand-ups across larger or multiple teams (improving shared understandings). • Bias toward integrating disciplined approaches (katas) improves scaling and mobility of team members.

42. Sprint Review Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • 4-hour, time-boxed meeting (for 1 month Sprints) to inspect Product Increment. • Inspect and provide feedback on completed work plus collaborate to identify ways to optimize value. Revised (reprioritized) Product Backlog is produced defining probable work items for the next Sprint. • Opportunity for entire team to improve knowledge of business objectives and suitability / quality of the incremental product delivery. • Often perceived as the measure of performance and accountability to stakeholders. Ends up being misused to protect reputations in low trust environments rather than improve delivery. • Work is frequently optimized prematurely in order to meet the presentation demands from stakeholders. • Supplemental mechanisms for building trust are more or equally as effective as the Sprint Review (making it less likely for the Review to be misused). • Multiple Definitions of Done across each value adding step improves overall work quality and reduces likelihood of premature optimization aimed at preserving stakeholder trust.

43. Sprint Retrospective Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Description / Purpose Common Challenges How Scrumban Helps • 3-hour, time-boxed meeting that occurs after the Sprint Review & before the next Sprint Planning Meeting. • A continuous improvement process to counteract the natural forces of entropy (moving from order to chaos) and sustaining higher levels of agility and performance. • Opportunity to inspect how the last Sprint went in terms of people, relationships, process and tools.  Identify potential improvements to the way team works  Create a plan for implementing them. • Sprint mechanism does not naturally encourage or provide for capacity to be allocated toward ongoing improvement efforts. • Recognized opportunities to improve tend to be subjective or based on anecdotal evidence rather than empirical analysis. • Visualization framework eases management of striking balance between delivering work and executing against improvement efforts. • Greater emphasis on the analysis of empirical data (and providing more such data to measure) makes the continuous improvement process more effective and more scalable. • Disciplined, scientific approaches to problem- solving, risk management and continuous improvement (katas) create more adaptive “Thinking Systems.”

44. Section 6 of 8 GetScrumban Game Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

45. Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Scrumban Systems are Queuing Systems (layered within a Scrum Context)

46. Games Help Us Learn • Humans think & learn immeasurably better as part of a network than on their own. • Games are a terrain in which to set our minds free and wander around. • GetScrumban is an interactive game where players collaboratively learn and improve their understanding of key concepts. 1. Evolutions in Visualizing & Managing Workflow 2. Evolutions in Recognizing and Managing Risk 3. Evolutions in Maximizing Business Value through Service-Orientation Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

47. Starts in a typical Scrum context – • An existing Scrum Board • A Sprint Planning session where teams estimate stories and select their Sprint backlog. As players compete they – • confront a variety of common scenarios to manage • experience how Scrumban improves shared understanding s and enables teams to shape and control demands. Game Play Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

48. Game play encourages new ways of thinking by: • Calling on players to use both old and new metrics to inform their decisions • deciding what changes in their way of working makes the most sense. Game play reflects how Scrumban works in real life. • every context is different. • continuous discovery and experimentation is an effective path to better outcomes. New Ways of Thinking Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

49. Players can compare and contrast performance metrics across teams and games to: • Learn how to recognize visible patterns within performance data and understand their significance • Proactively address issues before they manifest themselves as impediments Mastering Skills Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

50. The Get Scrumban Game Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys http://GetScrumban.com

51. Section 7 of 8 Shaping Demand with Scrumban Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

52. • Most process improvement efforts focus on improving capabilities. • Shaping and influencing demand is another way to help bring systems in balance • We do this by setting expectations through probabilistic forecasting • Starting point with Kanban / Scrumban is: • Release Planning / Sprint Planning with Little’s Law Shaping Demand Establishing Meaningful Expectations Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

53. Project Planning Process • Concept is Developed • Project Parameters are Established • Minimum Viable Product / Minimum Marketable Features are Defined • Features are Prioritized • Estimates of Required Time and Resources are Established Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com

54. The Moving Targets The amount of work requested. The amount of time needed. The amount of resources allocated. The level of quality delivered. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

55. The Headaches Estimating Skills – some individuals / teams are better than others at estimating. Work Item Variability – the development process has too many variables that influence “lead time.” Outliers are inevitable. Non-uniform Metrics – the most performance metrics are rarely apples to apples comparisons. Politics – estimates are invariably perceived as commitments. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

56. Scrum Systems – Estimation & Velocity • Estimation of hours or story points is subjective and imprecise • Velocity measurements are only relative and not comparable across multiple teams • Velocity is essentially a “throughput “-based measure. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com

57. Kanban Systems – Flow Based Queuing system design plus granular tracking of work types and workflow enables probabilistic forecasting. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com Example of visualizing a single workflow through which all work types flow. Enables forecasting based upon objective measurements vs. subjective sizing. Example of visualizing multiple workflows that relate to specific classes of service (each of which may have different rates of flow). This system typically allows for more precise forecasting.

58. Lead Time Focus Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Traditional Labels – typically measured as the amount of time required to deliver a work item. -- measured from the date of commitment through delivery into the first infinite queue Alternative Labels – shifts focus to realization of business value. -- “flow time” + “delivery time” is the cycle relevant to our forecasting process.

59. Applying Little’s law Departure rate approximately equals arrival rate (λ). No work items get lost and none remain in the system indefinitely. Little’s Law holds for queuing systems where: training@codegenesys.com Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLC Can be applied at both iteration and release levels...

60. The Basic Math Use with care – there are many variables that influence reliability of any forecast. Best Use is to attain improved understandings & to influence expectations vs. making explicit commitments. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

61. But Wait… What About the Z-curve? Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Little’s Law can only be reliably applied to work performed during the 2nd leg of the project / release z-curve…

62. Accounting for Uncertainty Natural ebb & flow (associated with the 1st & 3rd legs of the z-curve) Dark Matter (work expansion that comes from a better understanding of the work being undertaken) Failure Load (defects & technical debt, for example) When calculating Project (or Release) lead time, we need to account for uncertainty in terms of: Source: Dimitar Bakardzhiev Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

63. Managing the Uncertainty • 1st & 3rd Legs of Z-curve • Dark Matter • Failure Load • Other Risks? Calculate and Manage Against a Project Buffer Accounting for: Have Team Focus on Median Lead Times Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Project Buffer = Z-curve coefficient x (1 + ave. failure load + ave. dark matter) x (# of stories / ave. throughput)

64. What About Sprint Planning? The techniques applied in Release Planning can also be employed at the Sprint Planning level: • Little's Law provides an additional check and balance on the correlation between velocity and actual throughput. • Teams that actively manage risk through embedded Risk Management techniques (such as Cost of Delay calculations and / or class of service mechanisms) are enabled to improve their story selection & prioritization capabilities, improving the likelihood of meeting their Sprint commitment. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

65. Why Risk is Relevant Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys • Higher Risk Means Greater Variability in Lead Times • greater variability means less predictability • Factors that Influence Risk • having to interact with other systems to deliver completed work • having to work with new systems or technologies • having to learn about new new business domains • and many more... • Quantifying, Tracking & Visualizing Risk • improves shared understandings of project health • enables early discovery and intervention

66. The Result – Better Decisions Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Which of these projects is more likely to be completed on time?

67. Back to Sprint Planning Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys Improving the Likelihood of Meeting Your Sprint Commitment • 70 User Stories remain in the Product Backlog. • Risk has been quantified on each on a crude scale: • High Risk Items: 20 User Stories • Medium Risk Items: 36 User Stories • Low Risk Items: 14 User Stories Historical Team Data • Average Lead Time for All Stories: .9 weeks • Average Lead Time for High Risk Stories: 1.6 weeks • Average Lead Time for Low Risk Stories: .4 weeks # stories = duration x (ave. WIP / ave. lead time) Proposed Sprint Backlog

68. Where You Can Go Modeling & Simulations Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys • Modeling is used when greater precision is required, or when we need to isolate and measure the impact of specific risk factors in a more granular fashion. • Modeling reality through repetitive simulations produces the rough equivalent of actual performance data • Past performance data (or its equivalent) improves our understanding of the probability of various outcomes that would otherwise remain elusive. • Elevated levels of uncertainty and risk means greater difficulty developing accurate forecasts. • Poor forecasting erodes trust and sense of predictability with non-technical leadership. • Trust & predictability are essential to sustained agility and high-performance.

69. Section 8 of 8 Retrospective Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

70. The most important things cannot be measured“ “ -Deming, W. Edwards. Out of the Crisis. Official Licensed Material Copyright CodeGenesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

71. A GREAT WAY TO START! Learn More :: Scrumban Kickstart Start using Scrumban in Less Than a Day! WHEN: Monthly - Fourth Wednesday 8:00 AM – 1:30PM WHERE: Code Genesys 15 Main Street Hopkinton, MA Just $249 (pre-registration required) Private Programs Available Contact Code Genesys for details WHY SCRUMBAN?  Simple & Easy – Starts With What You’re Already Doing and Makes Those Practices More Effective  Improves Focus & Flexibility  Adds Ways to Identify & Reduce Wasted Work / Wasted Time  More Reliable Forecasting & Planning Capabilities  Increased Efficiency  Greater Sustainability What you walk away with:  Mastery of Core Principles & Practices  Analysis of Sources of Demand (where work is coming from) & Dissatisfaction (what business needs aren’t being met)  Value Stream Mapping of Current Process  Initial Kanban Board Design  3 Month Gold Level Subscription to ScrumDo.com plus Follow-up Mentoring Official Licensed Material Copyright Code Genesys, LLCtraining@codegenesys.com | @codegenesys

72. Advanced Training Opportunities Kanban Foundations (2 Days) Kanban at Scale (2 Days) Advanced Practitioners Private Training Customized to Your Needs / Delivered on-site More Details at: http://codegenesys.com/events Contact us: training@codegenesys.com

Scrumban Demystified

Jack Speranza

Scrumban Demystified