While there is no way to predict what the future holds for our lives, financial markets, or even the economy, there are actions that can be taken along the way to help ensure the best possible outcome. The past couple of years have been a trying time for many around the world, and while the turning of the calendar to 2012 brings a spark of optimism toward the future, we must always be prepared for whatever the financial markets bring our way. I have learned a lot about the markets in these times and I too share that same optimism about the future, but perhaps for different reasons than many.
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RAYMOND JAMES
FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC.
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Green Financial Group
An Independent Firm
A Look Back & A Look Ahead
While there is no way to predict what the future holds for our lives, financial markets, or even the economy, there
are actions that can be taken along the way to help ensure the best possible outcome. The past couple of years
have been a trying time for many around the world, and while the turning of the calendar to 2012 brings a spark
of optimism toward the future, we must always be prepared for whatever the financial markets bring our way. I
have learned a lot about the markets in these times and I too share that same optimism about the future, but
perhaps for different reasons than many.
These days many are optimistic simply because of the feeling that things in Europe, the economy, etc. just can’t
get any worse, right?!? That type of thinking is relegated to those types of people who sit back and let it happen
without a proactive approach to navigating the tumultuous markets. I am not optimistic because I think the
worst is over or that better times lie ahead; I am optimistic because I have a game plan for managing risk in the
financial markets no matter what the future brings. My game plan does not involve listening to the mass media
which often breeds a “following the herd” effect, nor does my game plan involve my own gut feeling on the
market. The game plan that I adhere to, and will going forward is grounded in the basic economic concept of
2. supply and demand. There are times when that means being extremely defensive on the equities market and
parking a large chunk of the portfolio in cash,similar to the market of 2008. However, there are other times
when the equity market is supporting higher prices, like 2009 and 2010, and thus I will have increased if not over
weighted exposure to the equity market. Who knows how the next 12 months will play out let alone the next 12
years, and this is why it is so important for me not to try and predict what is going to happen; I will simply let the
market tell me what is happening and take advantage of those opportunities.
There is no doubt 2011 was a tough and volatile year for the market. Trends in outperformance were few and far
between. Perhaps the only trend that was apparent in 2011 was the trend of volatility. Consider this; during the
course of 2011 the S&P 500 experienced three corrections of 10% or more during the year. That is quite a high
number especially given the fact that from 2003 to 2007 the S&P 500 never so much as saw one 10%
correction. History suggests that volatility like this does not persist for extended periods of time. But in the event
that it does,there are proactive steps that I will continue to take in order to attempt to dampen the overall
volatility in your portfolio.
2012 has started off on a positive note so far, and already there is evidence of emergent trends that I wanted to
share with you at this time of the year. With that said, as the New Year is now in full swing, here are the market
themes that are in place today.
Equities have started the year off on a positive note and when compared to other asset classes,
Equities, particularly Domestic Equities, come into the year as the strongest of the asset classes that
I follow. Rallies in the equity market in 2011 came in fits and starts but as we head into 2012 we are
doing so with a generally positive foundation. For instance, about 58% of stocks in the market are
trading in an overall positive trend which means that a majority of stocks are trending higher in
price. This does not mean we will simply throw a dart and pick stocks or sectors at random, but the
weight of evidence for this asset class is positive.
One of the main positive headlines in 2011 was the record move in the price of Gold which managed
to notch an all-time high of $1,892 in 2011, providing a bright spot for the financial
market. However over the course of the past couple of months there have been some troubling
signs from the yellow metal, not only in terms of absolute price, but in terms of strength verses
commodities. One of the beneficiaries within the Commodity space from the weakness seen from
Gold has been Crude Oil. The price of a barrel of Oil has crossed back above the $100
level. Undoubtedly, an increase in the price of Oil will translate to higher prices at the
pump. However there are ways to benefit from higher Energy prices in your investment portfolio.
International Equities was the worst performing asset class of last year and the indicators I follow
had this group falling out of favor in the fall of 2010. Over the first few weeks of 2012, this asset
class that has been showing some positive signs. For instance, some of the bigger countries are
showing some promise in areas like China, Brazil and even some of the European countries are
3. moving back into positive trends. This will continue to be an area to watch closely, and as the
positive signs continue to mount we will begin to allocate a bigger percent of the portfolio across the
pond. The times when it feels like the worst time to be buying, as is the case now with everything
going on especially in Europe, often ends up being one of the better times to allocate money to that
space.
If you have any questions about the particulars of your portfolio, or would like to discuss the potential
opportunities that I have seen arise within the equity market, please give me a call. In the meantime, Happy New
Year!
Thank you for your business and support,
Jeffrey A. Green
Founder
Registered Principal
D-713-244-3030
F- 713-513-5669
6363 Woodway Dr., Ste. 870
Houston, TX 77057
www.greenfinancialgrp.com
Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC
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