Craig Applegath of Cohos Evamy presents on the need for resilient cities in the face of increasingly volatile social and environmental changes.
Presented at the 5th annual Green Building Festival in Toronto, Canada, 2009.
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Resilient City
1. Beyond Sustainability: Designing our Cities for Resiliency in the face of Global Warming, Peak Oil, and Unsustainable Population Growth by Craig Applegath, FRAIC COHOS EVAMY integratedesign
14. In 2008 Economic loses from these disasters was $200 Bil (the most expensive year ever recorded)Source: Wikipedia Commons Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico, 2008 Near Galveston, Texas Introduction
21. Peak Oil: Key Impacts Much higher cost of oil and all fuels “Cars take the off-ramp” Much greater need for pubic mass transit Re-localization of agriculture / food production Re-localization of manufacturing Transformation and/or death of suburbs Peak Oil
23. Key Metrics Current Population = 6.78 Billion (US Census May 2009) Growth rate per year = 80.2 Million (2008) Projected by 2050 = 9.0 Billion ? Growth rate in 2008 = 1.1 % Population
25. Source: Wikipedia Commons POPULATION GROWTH – (IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS) Past and projected population growth on different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and its scale is millions of people. Population
26. Population: Key Impacts Greater use of oil / fossil fuel, and therefore… Greater production of CO2 / Greenhouse Gases Greater demands on all resources, and therefore… Resource shortages, and therefore… migrating populations, and therefore… Significant in-migration to cities across the world… Population
27. “So…what can we do about this? Is there anything we can do as architects, planners, landscape architects and engineers that will make a difference?”
28. Antonio Gomez-Palacio Earle Arney Craig Applegath Peter Howard Brian Watkinson Lyle Scott ResilientCity Discussion Group
29. PEAK OIL FOOD STRESS COST OF OIL$ PUSH UP $ CO2 CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION GROWTH STRESS CO2 The Un-holy Trinity
30. Integrated understanding of Climate Change, Peak Oil and Population Growth Impacts flow both ways Need a new conceptual framework Key Issues
32. Resilience: “1. (Of a substance etc.) recoiling; springing back; resuming its original shape after bending, stretching, compression, etc.” 2. (of a person) readily recovering from a shock, depression etc. Source: The Canadian Oxford English Dictionary, page 1227 Resilience
33. Resilience: “Resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to still remain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks.” Source: B. Walker et al, ‘Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability in Social-ecological Systems’, Ecology and Society 9 (2) p. 5 Resilience
34. Resilient to What? Environmental stresses of Climate Change Transformation of our economy by Peak Oil Economic and social pressures of population migration Resilience
36. Resilient Planning and Design Principles: Carbon neutrality Redundancy of Systems Diversity of Systems Durability Local Self-Sufficiency Responsiveness and Connectedness ResilientCity Principles
37. Resilient City Planning Strategies: Transform Circulation Reduce Energy Requirements of Existing Fabric Re-localize key functions Increase Density / Decrease Height / Mixed Use ResilientCity Planning Strategies
38. Resilient Building Design Strategies: Reduce Energy and Carbon Input Requirements Re-localize Key Processes and Materials Design for Flexibility and Re-use Design for Durability Design for Integration with Environment Planning and Design
60. “OK…But what do we do about this when we get back to the office?”
61. Five Suggestions: Stop thinking only about the impact we are having on the environment; and… Start also thinking about how we will deal with the impacts of environment as it starts to push back! Start looking over the horizon to the time when the economics of Peak Oil will change how our cities function – creating an urgent need for re-localization of food and manufacturing. Start thinking about how our cities will deal with the huge in-migrations of environmental refugees. Take advantage of our ResilientCity.org resources, and please share your ideas with us!
62. “The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew.” Abraham Lincoln
63. For more information about the planning and design of resilient cities: www.ResilientCity.org ResilientCity.org Website
Welcome. If I remember correctly it is coming up to about 8 years ago now that a few of us that were Part of the RAIC’s Sustainable Design Committee and when it came its conclusion we decided to form Sustainable Buildings Canada. So speaking today is a great pleasure. This presentation is an incomplete story – or should I say a story in the making – about how we as architects and urban designers are going to come to terms with Climate Change and Peak Oil in the context of continued and unsustainable global population growth.
Before I put up the standard agenda slide, I would like to start my presentation by telling you where the idea for the notion of creating Resilient Cities came from. About 7 years ago, back in 2002 I had been on a speaking tour talking about how to create more environmentally responsible and sustainable healthcare facilities.While I was speaking at the CleanMed Conference in 2002 in Chicago, one of the attendees at my presentation asked me the following question at the end of my presentation:He said “I can buy the idea of trying to plan and design our healthcare facilities to be more energy efficient, and have a lower impact on the environment, but shouldn’t we also be planning for the inevitable future consequences of Global Warming – with its increased number of storms, population migrations, massive agri-failure, water shortages, and economic decline….!”What a shockingly obvious, and over-the-horizon-looking question. More importantly, what an important question! And yet, if I can be so bold, what a politically incorrect question!
Typically most sustainable design discussions are about what we as architects, interior designers, and urban designers can do to reduce our carbon foot print, and create more sustainable cities and buildings. Indeed! All of our focus for the past 10 years has been on our impact on the world … on the kinds of effects our profligate use of energy and its massive production of carbon will have on the environment ….as if the environment was “out there” and somehow separate from us.
In fact, diminishing our impact on the environment through green building has become a mature industry in the past decade. One has only to think about how much these organization have changed the way the design and building industry thinks to realize that we are now well past the early adopter phase in this industry.