Recomendados
Recomendados
Más contenido relacionado
Similar a Accuracy of Small-Group Estimation
Similar a Accuracy of Small-Group Estimation (20)
Accuracy of Small-Group Estimation
- 1. Accuracy of Small-Group Estimation and the Wisdom of Crowds Jenny Shi Michael D. Lee Department of Cognitive Science University of California, Irvine
- 2. Cheese tray knife set Crafted of sustainable bamboo and sleek stainless steel, these five distinct blades carve up your brie and Roquefort with ease. Price in Dollars ($1-$50): Real price: $38
- 9. Price is Right encourages strategic estimation Item for bid: Ipod $150 $165 $1
- 11. Results for small group estimates $9.36 $8.82 $8.79
- 17. Extra Slides
- 18. Starbucks stainless steel tumbler Enjoy your favorite Starbucks brew in this 10-oz. stainless steel tumbler bottle with convenient handles. Price in Dollars ($1-$50): Real price: $34
Notas del editor
- Ask three players. Calculate average then compare.
- When looking at individual estimates, they are $9.45 away from the true price. When aggregating the entire groups’ estimates, the outcome is $7.52 from the true price. Preliminary analysis.
- Focus on small groups because woc can be clearly seen in groups of threes. And because we can’t have too many people competing each other. Too confusing for people, too confusing for analyses as well.
- For the competitive condition, we implemented a cognitive model as an analysis of the estimate.
- Cooperative group average not so different with consensus.
- WoC quick stabilization but still better than small group analyses. Competing participants possibly feel discouraged to anchor and mimic other bids. Forced to incorporate individual pov and be independent!
- Start of with two trials of the estimation task. Ask random person.
- Optimal dm with 3 players, maximum bid of 50. Dotted line represents probability of winning if that player makes that bid. Solid line is the probability if they will make that choice. Gaussian true price distribution. This example shows that each player maximizes their chances of winning by using certain game strategies.