A slideshow-summary for-the-busy prepared for the team at Solarcentury, as a backgrounder for our support for the youth strike event on 20th September and the Extinction Rebellion protest on 7th October.

1. Global heating and the climate chaos
that results from it: an overview
A slideshow summary for-the-busy
Jeremy Leggett

2. The
problem
7th Jan
2016
The main
atmospheric
greenhouse gases
derived from
human activities:
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Halocarbons
Nitrous oxide
…all increasing,
all trapping heat
in the atmosphere
Zero scientific
doubt about this

3. 7th Jan
2016
5th Jun
2019
Atmosphere CO2 increased in 2018 by the
2nd highest annual amount in the past six decades
Concentrations were 414.8 parts per million in May
….3.5ppm higher than the same time last year.
1990s:
average annual
growth rate c.
1.5ppm
Last decade:
average annual
growth rate
c. 2.2 ppm

4. 7th Jan
2016
24th May
2019
Atmospheric methane concentrations reach a new
record in 2018, continuing ascent since 2007
And the oil and gas industry fracks away, despite methane leakage
often being substantial ….where measured.
ppb
Large scale fracking of shale
starts in the USA (one
candidate reason for the
increase, or part thereof)

5. 7th Jan
2016
24th May
2019
New NOAA data show that atmospheric methane
levels surged to a new record in 2018
And the oil and gas industry fracks away, often lobbying to suppress
even monitoring of leakage, often substantial where measured.
ppb
Large scale fracking of shale
starts in the USA (one
candidate reason for the
increase, or part thereof)
This presentation omits the many solutions and policy and
social responses underway. Looking at the problem without
a solutions context can be very depressing, especially for
those relatively new to the facts.
Accordingly, I would invite you to keep in mind
during the presentation what I consider to be the
single most encouraging fact in terms of the
policy fixes we need…..

6. Just 100 companies have been responsible
for 71% of global greenhouse gas emissions
since 1988
Source: Carbon Disclosure Project

7. The
problem
7th Jan
2016
They face huge risk of having their licence to do this
removed in the years ahead, and those who replace
them and / or convert them have huge opportunities
Just one example…..

8. An equity research house removes all “buy” ratings
from the biggest integrated oil companies
7th Jan
2016
6th Sep
2019
“Sector underestimates regulations aimed at curbing climate change.”
Oil demand peak within 5 years means sector faces “an existential risk.”
Redburn hits ExxonMobil hit with a rare “double downgrade”, bumping
the world’s biggest oil company from “buy” to “sell” in one move

9. The
problem
7th Jan
2016
An opening thought from
an icon of our times

10. “You are not mature enough to tell it like it is.
Even that burden you leave to your children”
7th Jan
2016
14th Dec
2018
Governments have been negotiating to slow global heating for 30 years.
In my experience they have definitely tended not to tell it like it is.
Greta Thunberg, Age 15
Addressing the 2018
annual climate summit

11. A history of the relevant science

12. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change issues a stark warning: the first of many
Hundreds of scientists from universities and government labs (NASA, the
Met Office, etc), from many countries, are involved in this body.
7th Jan
2016
May
1990
A typical UN
IPCC meeting

13. The first IPCC science report: c. 0.5˚C rise in global
average temperature since pre-industrial times
7th Jan
2016
May
1990
Global-mean combined land-air and sea-surface temperatures
1861 1989, relative to the average for 1951-80

14. 7th Jan
2016
6th Feb
2019
And today? c.1˚C increase, with the hottest 5 years
being the last 5 years
Global temperature anomaly ˚C
Since IPCC
report 1990

15. IPCC’s first forecast: Business-as-usual GHG
emissions will heat the planet >4˚C by 2100
7th Jan
2016
May
1990
Front page headlines included: “Race to Save Our World”: Daily Express.
“Thatcher urges global action on environment”: Financial Times. etc.

16. 7th Jan
2016
June
2019
The sum of national policies, pledges and targets is
far from hitting the Paris Agreement commitment
1.5˚C
0˚C
2˚C
4˚C
Paris Agreement goal (to keep below)
Paris Agreement aspiration (to keep below)
3.3˚C
3.3˚C
4.4˚C
Current
policies
3.0˚C
2.4˚C
3.8˚C
Pledges
& targets
Source:
The Paris Agreement of December 2015
was signed by 195 governments, and
quickly ratified by enough of them to
come into force in November 2016.

17. Two recent IPCC reports provide
the most dire warnings yet of
the difference a degree makes

18. 7th Jan
2016
7th Oct
2018
Latest UN scientists’ report finds ruinous contrast
between 1.5˚C & 2˚C global heating
To avoid going above 1.5˚C,
emissions must be cut from
2010 levels by 45% by
2030, and to net zero by
2050 (20% by 2030 and net
zero by 2075 for 2˚C).

19. Early impacts are especially clear in the coral reefs,
the Arctic, coastal flooding, & heat-related health
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015
ipcc
Global
warming
of 1.5˚C
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900

20. UN scientists review impacts of observed and
predicted global heating on land
7th Jan
2016
8th Aug
2019
Already:
“Climate change, including
increases in frequency and
intensity of extremes, has
adversely impacted food security
and terrestrial ecosystems as
well as contributed to
desertification and land
degradation in many regions.”

21. “The land surface air temperature has risen nearly
twice as much as the global average temperature”
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
Change in surface air temperature
over land = 1.53˚C
relative to 1850 - 1900
Change in global (land & ocean) mean surface
temperature (GMST) = 0.87˚C
relative to 1850 - 1900
2˚C: Paris Agreement
commitment (195
governments)
1.5˚C: Paris aspiration
0.87˚C: Global heating

22. Above 1˚C risks to humans and ecosystems from
changes in land-based processes soar
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

23. A tour of some current impacts and
forward projections by the IPCC
and other scientific teams

24. Coral reefs, the second most diverse ecosystem on
the planet, are very temperature sensitive
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015
ipcc
Global
warming
of 1.5˚C
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900

25. A healthy coral reef

26. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xGreat Barrier Reef suffering
worst ever coral bleaching
…
29th Mar
2016
Previous worst episode: 1997-98
Global reef death toll: 16%
95% of reefs from
Cairns to PNG are
severely bleached
50% mortality so far

27. 7th Jan
2016
4th Jan
2018
Coral reefs head for ‘knock-out punch’ as bleaching
episodes return ever more frequently
From once every 25-30 years in the early 1980s to an average of once
every 6 years today: international team publishing in Science.

28. 7th Jan
2016
10th Jan
2019
Updated ocean heat content measurements in studies during the last 5 years remove
the 40% discordance with climate models reported by the IPCC in 2013.
Ocean warming accelerating faster than previously
thought, new Chinese & American research finds

29. Temperatures are rising much faster at high
northern latitudes than at lower latitudes
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015
ipcc
Global
warming
of 1.5˚C
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900

30. 7th Jan
2016
21st Aug
2018
Abnormal heat in the Arctic has been worrying scientists all year, and
now winds have helped break up an area normally solid all summer.
Arctic’s oldest and thickest sea ice, north of
Greenland, breaks up for first time on record

31. 7th Jan
2016
15th Feb
2018
First ship takes direct route across Arctic ice cap
…and it is an LNG carrier

32. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2019
The Greenland ice sheet is melting much faster
than the historical average this year
2019
1981 - 2010 median
Surface area
melting
sq km
Guardian graphic Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center,
University of Colorado Boulder

33. If the entire Greenland ice sheet melts it would
raise global sea levels by more than 7 metres
7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2019
Rivers of meltwater on the surface of
the sheet are observed disappearing
down huge crevasses, and scientists
fear lubrication of the base of the
ice will accelerate collapse.

34. Coastal flooding is about both extreme inundation
events and sea-level rise
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015
ipcc
Global
warming
of 1.5˚C
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900

35. “Especially storms of previously unobserved strength.” Very bad news
for the insurance industry, and all who live in the cyclone belt.
Global warming is making tropical cyclones
stronger, renowned climatologists conclude
7th Jan
2016
30th May
2018
Future Today
Graph by Kerry Emanuel, MIT

36. e.g.: “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are
unknown & beyond anything experienced”
7th Jan
2016
27th Aug
2017
Hurricane Harvey
forecast rainfall
Houston city officials: “Head to your
roofs, not your attics”
So says the US National
Weather Service

37. Evacuation warnings in place for 1.7 million people
and 800,000 are without power in the Carolinas
7th Jan
2016
15th Sep
2018
Florence has been downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm
…but eight months of rain are expected to fall in 3 days.

38. The Weather Channel warns of Florence storm
surges in places up to >9 feet
7th Jan
2016
15th Sep
2018
“This is an absolute life threatening situation
….if you are told to go, go!”

39. 7th Jan
2016
11th Oct
2018
Hurricane Michael: Category 4 storm hits Florida for
the 1st time ever, flattening whole neighbourhoods
This time wind is the problem: up to 155 mph, 5 mph < Category 5.
Governor Rick Scott, climate denier: “unimaginable devastation.”
Solarcentury solar farm, Panama

40. Global insured losses of $144 bn in 2017 were the
highest ever, economic losses of $337 bn 2nd highest
7th Jan
2016
10th Apr
2018
Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria = combined insured losses of $92 bn,
equal to 0.5% of US GDP. Wildfire losses of $14bn also highest ever.
Source: Swiss
Re Institute
USD at 2017 prices

41. So estimates a Stanford University economic study. “The benefits of
meeting the targets vastly outweigh the costs”: a common conclusion.
Hitting 1.5˚C Paris target vs 2˚ will save the world
c. $30 trillion in climate-related damages by 2030
7th Jan
2016
23rd May
2018
Future Today

42. Insurers warn that climate change could make
insurance unaffordable, threatening social order
7th Jan
2016
20th Mar
2019
Munich Re‘s Ernst Rauch warns of unaffordability for ordinary people.
Insurance Europe’s Nicolas Jeanmart warns of societal implications.
Wyoming oil and gas operations

43. Cyclone Idai: “one of the worst weather-related
disasters ever to hit the southern hemisphere”
7th Jan
2016
20th Mar
2019
>100 km/hr winds and vast flooding in Mozambique, with grave damage
to Zimbabwe and Malawi, including to crops.

44. “Delaying the transition is responsible for millions
of deaths every year:” World Health Organisation
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate.
We are near 1˚C already
2006
- 2015
ipcc
Global
warming
of 1.5˚C
2.0
1.5
1.0
0
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
María Neira, WHO director of public health, at the Dec 2018 climate summit

45. 7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
Climate change is already a health emergency,
say experts from 27 organizations in The Lancet
Top concerns include heatwave impacts, spread of infectious diseases.
“The findings are clear and the stakes could not be higher. We cannot
delay action”: Tedros Ghebreyesus, World Health Organisation DG.

46. 7th Jan
2016
5th July
2018
Africa’s hottest temperature ever: 124.3˚F (51.3˚C) in Ouargla, Algeria.
Northern Siberia: > 90˚F ….> 40˚F above normal.
Los Angeles highest-ever: 111˚F. And so on and so on.
“Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been
set all over the world during the past week”

47. 7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
The Lancet Countdown study: Extreme heat
threatens “systemic failure” of hospitals

48. And beyond global heating impacts, let us not
forget the impacts of fossil-fuel air pollution
on human health

49. Including 3 billion people breathing deadly fumes from domestic
cooking stoves and fires, causing an estimated 3.8 million deaths.
Air pollution kills 7 million people a year, WHO
reports, and 90% globally breathe polluted air
7th Jan
2016
1st May
2018

50. University of London cardiologists find exposure to nitrogen dioxide and
PM2.5 and PM10 particles linked to an increase in the size of ventricles.
7th Jan
2016
3rd Aug
2018
Air pollution linked to changes in structure of the
heart of the sort seen in early stages of heart failure

51. Air pollution deaths are double previous estimates,
new data show, making it worse than smoking
7th Jan
2016
12th Mar
2019
Research published in the European Heart Journal estimates that nearly
800,000 in Europe die prematurely each year. Fossil fuels most to blame.

52. 7th Jan
2016
14th Feb
2019
“Oil is an ethical investment, says BP”
Spencer Dale, chief economist, says that the debate over tackling
climate change suffers from a lack of understanding about the
“basic arithmetic” of oil supply and demand.

53. Above 1˚C risks to humans and ecosystems from
changes in land-based processes soar
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

54. Intense droughts are already having an impact on
agricultural productivity in multiple countries
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land

55. “Australia is devastated by drought, yet
it won't budge on climate change”
Dire droughts like the record-breaker in Australia currently
are increasingly common around the world.
nd
7th Jan
2016
22nd Aug
2018

56. Australian farmers are committing suicide at twice
the rate of the general population
Other countries are reporting the same problem. The suicide rate for
American farmers is more than double that of veterans.
nd
7th Jan
2016
20th May
2019

57. Cascading risks: for example, when combining
drought and soil erosion, 1 + 1 = more than 2
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

58. Soil erosion from conventionally-tilled agricultural
fields is c. 100 times higher than soil formation rate
It is c. 10-20 times even without tillage. The IPCC policymakers summary
does not explore where this takes us if the trend continues.
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land

59. We will return to this point later

60. Land vegetation is a sink for carbon dioxide
…and it is essential to maintain and grow that sink
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

61. One forest cubic metre
sequesters c. 1.4 tonnes
Cutting carbon emissions one
tonne at a time: two examples
One solar light saves c. 1 tonne

62. “The natural response of land to human-induced
environmental change caused a net sink
of around 11.2 GtCO2/yr during 2007-2016”
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
Equivalent to 29% of total CO2 emissions. However, “the persistence of
the sink is uncertain due to climate change” (my emphasis).

63. Amazon deforestation is accelerating towards an
unrecoverable tipping point, Brazilian scientists say
7th Jan
2016
24th Jul
2019
Government data show a surge to three football pitches a minute in the
7 months since hard-right populist president Bolsonaro came to power.

64. Tens of thousands of fires in the Amazon rainforest
prompt international outrage and action by the G7
7th Jan
2016
27th Aug
2019
Brazil has had >72,000 fire
outbreaks so far this year, an 84%
increase on the same period in
2018.
French president Emmanuel
Macron, host of the G7 meeting,
and other EU leaders, threaten
not to ratify a recent trade deal
with Brazil if environmental
commitments are not met.
Guardian graphic, Source: Nasa

65. Wildfires are already unprecedented worldwide
…with much worse above 1.5˚C
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

66. Siberian wildfires July 2019
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jul
2019
“Siberia’s wildfires seen from a million miles away”
Source: EPIC camera, NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory

67. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2019
Russia declares a state of emergency as worst-ever
wildfires rage, shrouding Moscow in smoke

68. 7th Jan
2016
18th July
2018
There have been many fires before in Sweden, but never over such a
wide area. EU nations asked for emergency assistance in firefighting.
Wildfires rage across the Arctic Circle - worst in
Sweden, which calls for international help

69. “More and more Americans are starting to accept climate change is
happening, despite Trump….”
7th Jan
2016
5th Aug
2018
“Our climate plans are in pieces as killer
summer shreds records”

70. 7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2018
Northern California wildfire incinerates
most of a town called Paradise, killing many
27,000 people escape on a highway through “a wall of fire”. Wildfires
also rage in south. 150,000 evacuated in all, including all of Malibu.

71. “The Terrifying Science Behind California’s Massive
Camp Fire”
7th Jan
2016
10th Nov
2018
“This is what a climate change reckoning looks like.” “The atmosphere as
it gets warmer is thirstier.” “Climate change is sucking California dry.”
Meteorologist Rob Elvington in a prescient
tweet the day before the fire broke out:
“Worse than no rain is negative rain.
Evaporative Demand Index (EDDI) is
maxing out for some areas for the last 4
weeks.”

72. Wildfires burn across UK amid highest winter
temperatures ever recorded
7th Jan
2016
26th Feb
2019
Eye witness: “It looks like the end of the world,
it looks like the apocalypse is happening.”
Saddleworth Moor
….February in Britain

73. Major risk lurks in trapped methane and carbon
dioxide below the permafrost even at 1.5˚C
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

74. “Projected thawing of permafrost is expected to
increase the loss of soil carbon.”
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land

75. 7th Jan
2016
17th Feb
2017
A study by the Northwest Territories Geological Survey
shows 52,000 square miles in rapid decline.
“Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in
Canada, Portends Huge Carbon Release”
“Scientists estimate that the world's permafrost holds
twice as much carbon as the atmosphere.”

76. 7th Jan
2016
16th Jan
2019
Average warming 0.5˚Fahrenheit between 2007 and 2016. The most
dramatic warming was found in the Siberian Arctic: 1.6˚F.
Global deep permafrost monitoring network
shows alarming warming in last decade
Temperature
data collected at
an average depth
of 45 feet at
>120 sites in
Arctic, Antarctic,
and high
mountains.

77. Methane release from Arctic permafrost found to
be > doubled by unexpectedly abrupt thawing
7th Jan
2016
20th Aug
2018
NASA-funded international team observe emissions from carbon deep
in thermokarst lakes, a warming impact not included in climate models.

78. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Jan
2019
These measurements, published today in Nature, are the third set of
sub-glacier data of this kind. None of it is included in climate models.
New data: Greenland melt water drives continuous
export of methane from below the ice-sheet
“Our results indicate that ice
sheets overlie extensive,
biologically active
methanogenic wetlands and
that high rates of methane
export to the atmosphere
can occur via efficient
subglacial drainage
pathways.”
Guillaume Lamarche-Gagnon
(Bristol University) et al in Nature

79. “The stability of food supply is projected to decrease as the
magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events
that disrupt food chains increases”
Globalmeansurfacetemperaturechange˚C
relativetopre-industrialtime1850-1900
Yellow is moderate risk.. Red is high risk.. Purple is very high risk..
Levels of IPCC confidence in assessments: H is high, M is moderate, L is low.
2006
- 2015
Dryland
water
scarcity
Soil
erosion
Vegetation
loss
Wildfire
damage
ipcc
Climate
Change
and Land
We are near 1˚C already
Permafrost
degradation
Tropical
crop yield
decline
Food supply
instabilities
“Risks, including cascading risks, are projected to become increasingly severe”
1
0
2
3
4
5
1.5

80. World's food supply under “severe threat” from loss
of biodiversity: Food & Agriculture Organisation
7th Jan
2016
21st Feb
2019
Data collated from 91 governments in the first UN survey
of the lifeforms that put food on our plates.

81. 7th Jan
2016
28th Nov
2018
Global food system is broken, say 130 of the world’s
national academies of science and medicine
Agriculture = 1/3rd of all greenhouse-gas emissions, and 1/3rd of all food
produced is wasted. Radical change is needed: less meat, improved
farming methods, focus on nutritious food rather than cheap food.
Hunger continues to grow. In
2017, 821 million people -
one in every nine - went
hungry, the UK FAO reports.

82. So at this point, perhaps I should stop.
But….

83. Tell
the
truth

84. IPCC reports, being written by a committee
of many dozens of experts, are lowest-
common-denominator syntheses
….and hence pull punches

85. Synergy between climate and other global risks
“threatens 2008-style system collapse”
7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2019
So concludes the IPPR, describing the intersection of climate with e.g.
soil infertility, pollinator loss, chemical leaching and ocean acidification
as a “new domain of risk” to which many policymakers seem blind.

86. Agriculture provides a particularly worrying
example of synergy between climate
and other global risks

87. This in Jeremy Grantham’s update of his classic letter to investors
on climate change in holistic context, “The Race of Our Lives.”
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
Average Annual Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States
Average of yield growth for corn, wheat, and rice
Source:USDANASS
*GMOprojectionexcludingfutureeffectsof
erosionandclimatechange.Asof1/31/18
.
US & Europe under food stress as is: productivity of
grains per acre is falling as natural limits approach
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018

88. 7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
“We’re losing perhaps 1% of our collective global soil a year
…about a half a percent of our arable land a year.”
Soil erosion: “It is the one or two great downpours
every few years that cause the trouble”
Gullying after heavy rain Soil Depth in Iowa Has Halved
Since Intensive Cultivation Began

89. “It is calculated that there are only 30 to 70 good harvest years left,
depending on your location.”
7th Jan
2016
And when we combine the effects of grain
productivity limits, soil erosion, and global heating….
US grain yields, historical and projected
Index averaging corn, soy and rice yields 2017 =1
.
Source:USDANASS,Rhodes2014,Liangetal
2017,GMO.AsofendApril2018.

90. Flying insects numbers have plunged by 76% over the past 25 years,
according to a comprehensive German study. Insects are pollinators.
Scientists warn of “ecological Armageddon” after
discovering a dramatic plunge in insect numbers
7th Jan
2016
18th Oct
2017

91. “One-third of all the food plants that we eat need pollination, every
flower needs a pollinator. What we’ve done is created a toxic world,
which is apparently not conducive to life as we know it.”
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
75% of flying insects “have just gone missing: why
isn’t this a dramatic item in our news?”

92. 7th Jan
2016
10th Feb
2019
Rapid extinction of world’s insects threatens a
“catastrophic collapse of nature’s ecosystems”
So concludes the first global
scientific review, of 73 studies, by
Australian & Chinese scientists:
At current rate of decline, 2.5%
p.a. over last 25 -30 years, insects
will be gone within 100 years.
Factors: pesticide use (main),
climate change (especially in
tropics) and urbanisation.
Within the last ten years:

93. A commonly-cited example of an IPCC
pulled punch is the impact of fast melting
in the East Antarctic ice sheet

94. Sea level rise due to Antarctic ice melt has tripled in
the past five years, satellite measurements show
7th Jan
2016
13th Jun
2018
The international Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise,
using multiple satellites, shows most mass change in West Antarctica.

95. 7th Jan
2016
10th Dec
2018
Satellite data show for the first time that many of
East Antarctica’s glaciers are thinning & speeding up
If all the ice were to slide or melt, it would lift global ocean height 28
metres. “That's the water equivalent to four Greenlands of ice,” says
Catherine Walker of Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

96. One more example to make the point:
oxygenation in the oceans

97. 7th Jan
2016
4th Jan
2018
Oceans suffocating as huge dead zones
quadruple since 1950
Smithsonian-led scientific team warns that fossil fuel burning is the
cause of large-scale deoxygenation: warmer waters hold less oxygen.
Where the heat
from global
warming goes:
Source:SkepticalScience

98. The worry is that both synergizing impacts
and individual impacts might entail
points of no return

99. International scientific team warns of coalescing amplifying feedbacks
from melting methane hydrates and other sources risks runaway effect.
7th Jan
2016
7th Aug
2018
“Climate change: 'Hothouse Earth' risks even
if CO2 emissions slashed”

100. By way of conclusion….

101. 7th Jan
2016
3rd Dec
2018
David Attenborough warns climate summit that
civilisation will collapse if we do not act
“If we don’t take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the
extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon.”

102. Collapse is a normal phenomenon for civilisations,
regardless of their size and stage
7th Jan
2016
18th Feb
2019
“Studying the demise of historic civilisations can tell us how much risk
we face today. Worryingly, the signs are worsening.”
The average lifespan of a
civilisation, based on these 83
spanning 4,000 years of human
history, is 336 years
3000BC
2000BC
1000BC
1000
0
Luke Kemp, Centre for the
Study of Existential Risk,
University of Cambridge

103. “The world is worsening in areas that have
contributed to the collapse of previous societies”
7th Jan
2016
18th Feb
2019
“The collapse of our civilisation is not inevitable. …We are only doomed
if we are unwilling to listen to the past”: Luke Kemp.

104. We are clearly not listening hard enough,
collectively, as things stand

105. Jenny Chase, Bloomberg: “I fear my daughter will have to kill” in fights
for habitable land. James Murray, Business Green: “I’m fucking terrified.”
7th Jan
2016
7th Aug
2018
Top journalists write graphically about their terror
of climate meltdown, deep fears for their children

106. And this drama is about more
than the fate of civilisation

107. 7th Jan
2016
7th Dec
2018
US scientists: modern climate change “solidly in the
same category” as end Permian mass extinction
96% of all oceanic species died in just a few thousands years then, from
reducing oxygen in warming water. With the warming of the last 50
years, oxygen has declined 2%, and continues to drop.

108. ....today they just got a whole lot worse
A slideshow precis for busy people by Jeremy Leggett
This is why we talk of extinction

109. If the planet were a sick human,
the best analogy is that she has
advanced-stage cancer.
A strategy of mixed radical medical intervention -
and medical innovation - could yet provide a cure
….but this has yet to be properly applied.
….And throughout the proper application, the
patient and her medics will remain
uncertain of ultimate success.

110. This is why so many are beginning to rebel
….and why we must be with them

111. 1989 - 2000 2000 - 2004
30 years of global heating, 1989 - 2019

112. 2004 - 2013 2013 - 2016
30 years of global heating, 1989 - 2019

113. 2019 - 2030
The next 11 years of global heating, 2019 - 2030
Title to be decided
Text to be written
We are medics, with a
vital tool for treating
the patient.
We have a sacred duty,
….but also no choice.
Good luck, and
strength, to all.