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Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)

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Jesse Schell
Jesse Schell

Jesse Schell gives some practical tips for making predictions about the future.

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Practical Techniques for Predicting the Future Jesse Schell @jesseschell
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+ = Psychology Technology Destiny
CrystalBallSociety.com
5 patterns
Pattern1 Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes
FOUNDATION Decoration
Mickey Mouse’s First Cartoon?
Steamboat Willie (November, 1928)
Plane Crazy (May, 1928)
Pattern2 The Hype Curve
The Hype Curve
Pattern3 Disruption
Pattern4 Technology Mostly Diverges
Technologies are shaped by their VENUES
Public Venues Arena Theater Museum
Private Venues Hearth Workbench Reading Nook
Public / Private Venues Gaming Table Playground Anywhere
Anywhere Gaming Table Playground Hearth Workbench Reading Nook Theater Arena Museum Private Venues Public Venues
Pattern5 History Keeps Repeating
1849!
2011 Palmer Luckey (age 20) 1968 Ivan Sutherland 1884 Nipkow Disk 1927 Philo Farnsworth (age 20) TV VR 43 Years Later 43 Years Later
Foundational Technology Makes the Biggest Changes The Hype Curve Disruption Technology Mostly Diverges History Keeps Repeating 5 4 3 1 2 Send your predictions to me! Jesse@SchellGames.com Thanks! Find slides at: JesseSchell.com

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Practical techniques for predicting the future (msft)