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REVISION WORKSHOP
          NUBE
  17 TH   JANUARY 2013
Organising and graphing quantitative data in a frequency
distribution table.
• Frequency table consists of a number of classes and each
  observation is counted and recorded as the frequency of the
  class.
• If n observations need to be classified into a frequency table,
  determine:
   –   Number of classes:
       c  1  3,3log n
                     xmax  xmin
   –   Class width 
                          c
                                                                    2
Organising and graphing quantitative data in a frequency
distribution table.
Example:
The following data represents the number of telephone calls received
for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per
hour.

      8    11    12    20   18    10    14   18    16    9
      5     7    11    12   15    14    16    9    17    11
      6    18     9    15   13    12    11    6    10    8
      11   13    22    11    11   14    11   10     9
      19   14    17    9     3     3    16    8     2
                                                                3
Frequency distribution
Number of classes  1  3,3log n
                   1  3,3log 48  6,5  7
              xmax  xmin 22  2
Class width                     2,86  3
                   k        7
     8    11   12   20   18   10   14   18    16   9
      5    7   11   12   15   14   16    9    17   11
      6   18    9   15   13   12   11    6    10   8
     11   13   22   11   11   14   11   10     9
     19   14   17    9    3    3   16    8     2        4
Frequency distribution
– first class                             [ xmin; ; min) class width)
                                             2 5)32x

– second class                            [ 5 ;; 8  3 ) width)
                                                 5
                                            5 5 ) class

 “[“ value is included in class
        8       11 12 20             18     10   14    18    16   9
        5        7      11 12        15     14   16     9    17   11
        6       18      9       15   13     12   11     6    10   8
 “)“ value is excluded from class
       11 13 22 11                   11     14   11    10     9
       19 14 17                  9    3      3   16     8     2
                                                                          5
Frequency distribution
                          Classes   Count
                          [2;5)     │││              3
 8    11   12   20   ….   [5;8)     |││││
                                      |              4
 5     7   11   12   ….   [8;11)    |│││││││││││     11
 6    18   9    15   ….   [11;14)   |│││││││││││││
                                      |              13
 11   13   22   11   ….
                          [14;17)   │││││││││        9
 19   14   17   9    ….
                          [17;20)   |││││││          6

                          [20;23)   ││               2


                                                     6
Frequency distribution
 Classes   Frequency (f)
[2;5)            3
[5;8)            4
[8;11)          11
[11;14)         13
[14;17)          9
[17;20)          6
[20;23)          2
  Total         48
                           7
Frequency distribution
 Classes   f       % frequency
[2;5)       3     3/48×100 = 6,3
[5;8)       4     4/48×100 = 8,3
[8;11)     11    11/48×100 = 22,9
[11;14)    13            27,1
[14;17)     9            18,8
[17;20)     6            12,5
[20;23)     2             4,2
  Total    48            100
                                    8
Frequency distribution
Classes    f    %f     Cumulative frequency (F)
[2;5)      3     6,3              3
[5;8)      4     8,3           3+4=7
[8;11)    11    22,9          7 + 11 = 18
[11;14)   13    27,1         18 + 13 = 31
[14;17)    9    18,8         31 + 9 = 40
[17;20)    6    12,5         40 + 6 = 46
[20;23)    2     4,2         46 + 2 = 48
  Total   48    100
                                                  9
Frequency distribution
 Classes   f    %f       F          %F
[2;5)       3    6,3     3     3/48×100 = 6,3
[5;8)       4    8,3     7    7/48×100 = 14,6
[8;11)     11   22,9     18   18/48×100 = 37,5
[11;14)    13   27,1     31          64,6
[14;17)     9   18,8     40          83,3
[17;20)     6   12,5     46          95,8
[20;23)     2    4,2     48         100
  Total    48   100
                                                 10
Frequency distribution
 Classes   f     F       Class mid-points (x)
[2;5)       3    3          (2 + 5)/2 = 3,5
[5;8)       4    7          (5 + 8)/2 = 6,5
[8;11)     11   18         (8 + 11)/2 = 9,5
[11;14)    13   31        (11 + 14)/2 = 12,5
[14;17)     9   40               15,5
[17;20)     6   46               18,5
[20;23)     2   48               21,5
  Total    48
                                                11
Frequency distribution
  Classes     f     %f    F    %F     (x)
[2;5)         3     6,3   3    6,3    3,5
[5;8)         4     8,3   7    14,6   6,5
[8;11)        11   22,9   18   37,5   9,5
[11;14)      13    27,1   31   64,6   12,5
[14;17)       9    18,8   40   83,3   15,5
[17;20)       6    12,5   46   95,8   18,5
[20;23)       2     4,2   48   100    21,5
    Total    48    100
                                             12
Histograms
  Classes    f    %f
[2;5)        3    6,3
[5;8)        4    8,3
[8;11)       11   22,9   y-axis

[11;14)      13   27,1
[14;17)      9    18,8
[17;20)      6    12,5
[20;23)      2    4,2             x-axis


                                           13
Histograms
                          Number of telephone calls per hour
                              at a municipal call centre

                          14
        Number of hours




                          12
                          10
                           8
                           6
                           4
                           2
                           0
                                2   5    8   11   14   17 20   23

                                        Number of calls
                                                                    14
Definitions
Frequency Polygon
A line graph of a frequency distribution and offers a
useful alternative to a histogram. Frequency polygon is
useful in conveying the shape of the distribution
Ogive
A graphic representation of the cumulative frequency
distribution. Used for approximating the number of
values less than or equal to a specified value


                                                      15
Frequency polygons
Class mid-points (x)   f    %f
        3,5             3    6,3
        6,5             4    8,3
        9,5            11   22,9   y-axis

       12,5            13   27,1
       15,5             9   18,8
       18,5             6   12,5
       21,5             2    4,2            x-axis



                                                     16
Frequency polygons
                                Number of telephone calls per hour
                                    at a municipal call centre                        (x)
                                14                                                     3,5
              Number of hours




                                12                                                     6,5
                                10
                                8
                                                                                       9,5
                                6                                                     12,5
                                4
                                2
                                                                                      15,5
                                0                                                     18,5
                                     0.5   3.5   6.5   9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5
                                                                                      21,5
 Arbitrary mid-points to                          Number of calls
   close the polygon.                                                                   17
Ogives
  Classes   F    %F
[2;5)       3     6,3
[5;8)       7    14,6
[8;11)      18   37,5   y-axis

[11;14)     31   64,6
[14;17)     40   83,3
[17;20)     46   95,8
[20;23)     48   100             x-axis



                                          18
Ogives
                         Ogive of number of call received
                             at a call centre per hour

                             100
           number of hours




                              90
            % Cumulative




                              80
                              70
                              60
                              50
                              40
                              30
                              20
                              10
                               0
                                   2   5   8   11   14   17   20   23
                                           Number of calls

 None of the hours had
   less than 2 calls.                                                   19
Ogives                     Ogive of number of call received
20% of the
hours had                      at a call centre per hour
more than
  17 calls                     100
             number of hours


 per hour.                      90
              % Cumulative




                                80
                                70
80% of the                      60
hours had                       50
 less than                      40
                                30
  17 calls                      20
 per hour.                      10
                                 0
                                     2   5     8   11    14   17     20   23
                                         50% of Number ofhad less
                                                 the hours calls
                                           than 12 calls per hour.

                                                                               20
Exam question 2
A garbage removal company would like to start charging by the
weight of a customers bin rather than by the number of bins put
out. They select a sample of 25 customers and weigh their
garbage bins. The weights in kg are given below:-
14.5   5.2    16.0   14.7   15.6   18.9   13.5   24.6   24.5     7.4
13.2   23.4   13.9   12.0   22.5   31.4   16.1   10.9   25.1     22.1
14.8   15.1   4.9    17.0   10.3


1. Construct a frequency table to describe the data. Include a
frequency and relative (%) frequency column. (Hint: start the
class intervals with the whole number just smaller than the
lowest value in the dataset)
Procedure
1.   Calculate the range of the dataset
2.   Calculate the no of classes
3.   Calculate the class width
4.   Construct table showing the intervals calculated in 1 to 3
5.   Put in the tally for each interval and then show as frequency
6.   Calculate the relative (%) frequency


                                                  13 marks
Range
31.4 - 4.9 = 26.5
No of classes
K or c= 1+3.3logn
n = 25      K or c= 3.3 log (25) = 5.61 ≈ 6

Class Width
              xmax  xmin = 26.5/6 = 4.41 ≈ 5
Class width 
                   c
No of classes = 6                               Class width = 5


INTERVALS              TALLY       FREQUENCY (f)       RELATIVE
                                                       FREQUENCY (%f)
4-<9                   111                 3                   12
9 - < 14               1111 1              6                    24
14 - < 19              1111 1111           9                   36
19 - < 24              111                 3                   12
24 - < 29              111                 3                   12
29 - < 34              1                   1                    4
                                          25                   100
Exam question 2
2. Comment on the interval         4% of bins weighed between
containing the lowest              29 & 34 kg
percentage

3. In which interval do the data   Largest no. of bins weighed
tend to cluster? Which             between 14 & 19kg. We
descriptive statistics measure,    assume mode will fall in this
can we assume, would be
                                   interval (highest frequency)
found in this interval?

4. Comment on the shape of         +ve skewed as more
the distribution without           values located in lower
drawing a graph . Give reasons     intervals
                                                   7 MARKS
Quartiles & Box & Whisker Plots
• Quartiles
• Percentiles
• Interquartile range




                        27
QUARTILES




            28
• QUARTILES
  – Order data in ascending order.
  – Divide data set into four quarters.



      25%          25%          25%            25%
Min          Q1           Q2              Q3         Max




                                                           29
Example – Given the following data set:
2       5        8         −3      5           2     6       5      −4
Determine Q1 for the sample of nine measurements:
   •Order the measurements
−4      −3       2         2       5           5     5       6      8
 1       2        3         4       5          6      7      8      9



Q1 is the  n  1    
                      1
                      4
                             9  1   
                                        1
                                        4
                                              2,5th value
Find difference between data for 2 & 3
2-(-3)=5 and multiply by the decimal portion of value : 5 x 0.5 = 2.5
                                                                         30
Add to smallest figure: -3 + 2.5: Q1 = 0.5
Example – Given the following data set:
2      5      8          −3     5          2     6     5    −4
Determine Q3 for the sample of nine measurements:

−4     −3     2          2      5          5     5     6    8
 1      2     3           4     5           6    7     8    9



Q3 is the  n  1   
                     3
                     4
                            9  1   
                                       3
                                       4
                                             7,5th value
Q3 = 5 + 0,5(6 − 5) = 5,5
                                                                 31
Example – Given the following data set:
2    5      8    −3   5   2     6   5   −4
Interquartile range = Q3 – Q1
Q3 = 5,5
Q1 = −0,5
Interquartile range
= 5,5 – (−0,5)
=6
                                             32
INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR)
• Difference between the third and first
  quartiles
• Indicates how far apart the first and third
  quartiles are

                  IQR = Q3 – Q1



                                                33
BOX & WHISKER PLOT
• Provides a graphical summary of data based
  on 5 summary measures or values
  – First quartile, median, third quartile ,lower limit,
    upper limit
• Box and whisker plot detects outliers in a data
  set
              LL = Q1 – 1,5 (IQR)
              UL = Q3 + 1,5 (IQR)

                                                           34
BOX-AND-WISKER PLOT
Me = 12,38                  LL = Q1 – 1,5(IQR) = 9,36 – 1,5(6,31) = –0,11
Q3 = 15,67
Q1 = 9,36                   UL = Q3 + 1,5(IQR) = 15,67 – 1,5(6,31) = 25,14
IRR = 6,31
           1,5(IQR)              IQR                  1,5(IQR)




   0   2    4     6   8    10    12    14   16   18     20   22   24   26   28
• Any value smaller than −0,11 will be an outlier.
• Any value larger than 25,14 will be an outlier.                            35
Exam question 3
The Tubeka brothers spent the following amounts in Rand on groceries over
the last 8 weeks:-
     54       56        89        67        74       57        43        51

1.   Calculate a five number summary table
2.   Construct a box and whisker plot for the data
3.   Determine whether there are any outliers. Show calculations
                                                                    20 MARKS

PROCEDURE
1. Reorder the data set
2. Identify maximum and minimum values in dataset
3. Calculate median
4. Calculate Q1 & Q3
5. Construct plot
6. Calculate upper & lower limits for dataset to determine if outliers present
43         51         54         56          57         67         74          89


xmin = 43 xmax = 89 median = (56+57)/2 = 56.5     Q1 = 51.75         Q3 = 72.25


Q1 = (n+1) (1/4) = (8+1) x ¼ = 2.25 value
Between 51 & 54
54-51 = 3 multiply by decimal portion of value 3x 0.25 = 0.75 and add the lower value

Q1 = 51 + 0.75 = 51.75

Q3 = (n+1) (¾) = (8+1) x ¾ = 6.75 value
Between 67 & 74
74 – 67 = 7 multiply by decimal portion of value 7 x 0.75 = 5.25 and add lower value

Q3 = 67 + 5.25 = 72.25
43         51        54          56          57         67       74           89


xmin = 43 xmax = 89 median = (56+57)/2 = 56.5    Q1 = 51.75         Q3 = 72.25


OUTLIERS
1. Calculate upper & lower limits

                                  LL = Q1 – 1,5 (IQR)
                                 UL = Q3 + 1,5 (IQR)
                              IQR = 72.25 – 51.75 = 20.5

                               LL = 51.75 – 1,5(20.5) = 21
                              UL = 72.25 + 1.5(20.5) = 103

No values smaller than 21 or greater than 103 therefore no outliers present
MEASURES OF LOCATION
• ARITHMETIC MEAN
   – Data is given in a frequency table
   – Only an approximate value of the mean


x
   fx   i       i

   f        i

where f i  frequency of the i th class interval
       xi = class midpoint of the i th class interval


                                                        40
• MEDIAN
  – Data is given in a frequency table.
  – First cumulative frequency ≥ n/2 will indicate the
    median class interval.
  – Median can also be determined from the ogive.
                 ui  li   n  Fi 1 
   M e  li 
                              2

                       fi
   where li      = lower boundary of the median interval
         ui      = upper boundary of the median interval
         Fi -1   = cumulative frequency of interval foregoing
                   median interval
           fi    = frequency of the median interval
                                                                41
• MODE
 – Class interval that has the largest frequency value
   will contain the mode.
 – Mode is the class midpoint of this class.
 – Mode must be determined from the histogram.




                                                         42
Example – The following data represents the number of
telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre.
The data was measured per hour.
To calculate the           Number of       Number of
mean for the sample           calls         hours fi        xi
of the 48 hours:        [2–under 5)             3          3,5
  determine the class [5–under 8)               4          6,5
       midpoints        [8–under 11)           11          9,5
                        [11–under 14)          13          12,5
                        [14–under 17)           9          15,5
                        [17–under 20)           6          18,5
                        [20–under 23)           2          21,5
                                             n = 48             43
Example – The following data represents the number of
telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre.
The data was measured per hour.

 x
       fi xi              Number of       Number of
                              calls          hours fi       xi
          fi
                        [2–under 5)              3          3,5
      597
                       [5–under 8)              4          6,5
       48               [8–under 11)           11           9,5
     12, 44            [11–under 14)          13          12,5
Average number          [14–under 17)            9         15,5
of calls per hour       [17–under 20)            6         18,5
is 12,44.               [20–under 23)            2         21,5
                                          n = 48                44
Exam question 3
The number of overtime hours worked by 40 part-time employees of a
security company in 1 week is shown in the following frequency
distribution:-
                 Hours per     Frequency (f)
                 week
                 2.1 - < 2.8   12
                 2.8 - < 3.5   13
                 3.5 - < 4.2   7
                 4.2 - < 4.9   5
                 4.9 - < 5.6   2
                 5.6 - < 6.3   1




1. Estimate the mean number of overtime hours worked
2. What % of employees worked at least 4.2 hours overtime?
                                                             8 marks
Exam question 3
        Procedure
        1. Calculate the midpoint x
           for each interval (lower
           limit + upper limit/2)
        2. Multiply f by the midpoint
           x
        3. Total the fx and f columns
        4. Divide ∑fx by ∑f
Exam question 3
     Hours per week       Frequency (f)    Mid point (x)           fx


     2.1 - < 2.8      12                  (2.1 + 2.8)/2=   29.4
                                          2.45
     2.8 - < 3.5      13                  3.15             40.95

     3.5 - < 4.2      7                   3.85             26.95

     4.2 - < 4.9      5                   4.55             22.75

     4.9 - < 5.6      2                   5.25             10.5

     5.6 - < 6.3      1                   5.95             5.95

                      40                                   136.5

Mean = 136.5/40 = 3.41hrs
Employees at least 4.2 hrs = 8                   8/40 *100 = 20%
PERCENTILES




              48
• PERCENTILES
  – Order data in ascending order.
  – Divide data set into hundred parts.

  10%                      90%
Min     P10                                           Max


                    80%                         20%
Min                                       P80         Max


              50%                   50%
Min                   P50 = Q2                        Max   49
Example – Given the following data set:
2        5        8          −3     5              2       6   5   −4
Determine P20 for the sample of nine measurements:

−4       −3       2          2      5              5       5   6   8
 1        2           3       4      5             6       7   8   9


P20 is the  n  1      9  1    2
                       p
                      100
                                    20
                                   100
                                              nd
                                                   value

P20 = −3
                                                                        50
Example – The following data represents the number of
 telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call
 centre. The data was measured per hour.
                         Number of      Number of
 P60                        calls        hours fi       F
= np/100                [2–under 5)           3          3
= 48(60)/100
                        [5–under 8)           4          7
= 28,8
                        [8–under 11)         11         18
The first cumulative
                        [11–under 14)        13         31
frequency ≥ 28,8
                        [14–under 17)         9         40
                        [17–under 20)         6         46
                        [20–under 23)         2         48
                                           n = 48            51
Example – The following data represents the number of
 telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre.
 The data was measured per hour.
 P60                                  Number of    Number of
         u p  l p   100  Fp1 
                         np             calls      hours fi  F
  lp 
                      fp             [2–under 5)        3     3
  11 
        14  11 28,8  18  [5–under 8)              4     7
  13, 49
                      13             [8–under 11)      11    18
                                     [11–under 14)     13    31
60% of the time less                 [14–under 17)      9    40
than 13,49 or 40% of [17–under 20)                      6    46
the time more than
13,49 calls per hour.                [20–under 23)      2    48
                                                     n = 48      52
Exam question 3
1. John, one of the part-time workers was told he falls on the
   70th percentile. Calculate the value and explain what it
   means.
PROCEDURE
1. Calculate the cumulative frequencies
2. Calculate which class the required percentile falls into by
   using P =np/100
3. Once you have identified the class use the percentile formula
   given in the tables book to calculate the value. Take CARE to
   order the calculation correctly.



                                                    4 MARKS
Exam question 3
                                       P = np/100 = 40*70/100
 Hours per    Frequency   Cumulative   =28
   week           (f)        F
2.1 - < 2.8   12          12           P70 = 3.5 + [ (4.2-3.5)(28-25)]/7

2.8 - < 3.5   13          25           = 3.5 + 0.8
3.5 - < 4.2   7           32
                                       =3.8
4.2 - < 4.9   5           37

4.9 - < 5.6   2           39           70% of the workers worked fewer
                                       hours overtime than John. 70% of
5.6 - < 6.3   1           40           the workers worked fewer than 3.8
                                       hrs. 30% of the workers worked
              40                       more overtime hours than John. 30%
                                       of the employees worked more than
                                       3.8hrs.
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
Confidence interval
      – An interval is calculated around the sample
        statistic

Population parameter
included in interval




                       Confidence interval

                                                      56
Confidence interval
  – An upper and lower limit within in which the
         Example:
    population parameter is expected to lie
         Meaning of a 90% confidence interval:
  – Limits will vary from sample to sample
  – Specify the probability thatsamples taken from
            90% of all possible the interval will
    include the parameter produce an interval that will
            population will
            include the population parameter
  – Typical used 90%, 95%, 99%
  – Probability denoted by
     • (1 – α) known as the level of confidence
     • α is the significance level
                                                     57
• An interval estimate consists of a range of values
  with an upper & lower limit
• The population parameter is expected to lie within
  this interval with a certain level of confidence
• Limits of an interval vary from sample to sample
  therefore we must also specify the probability that
  an interval will contain the parameter
• Ideally probability should be as high as possible


                                                        58
SO REMEMBER
•We can choose the probability
•Probability is denoted by (1-α)
•Typical values are 0.9 (90%); 0.95 (95%) and 0.99 (99%)
•The probability is known as the LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
•α is known as the SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL
•α corresponds to an area under a curve
•Since we take the confidence level into account when we
estimate an interval, the interval is called CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL

                                                           59
Confidence interval for Population Mean, n ≥ 30
- population need not be normally distributed
- sample will be approximately normal

                             
 CI (  )1     x  Z1     , if  is known
                          2  n
                            s 
 CI (  )1     x  Z1     , if  is not known
                          2  n
                                                       60
                                     Example :
CI (  )1   x  Z1     , if  is known
                       2  n
                                                      90% confidence interval
                         s 
CI (  )1   x  Z1     , if  is not known
                       2  n                           1 –   0,90
                                                          0,10
                                              1
    90% of all sample
                                                         0,10
    means fall in this area                                      0, 05
                                                         2    2
These 2 areas added                                                 Confidence level
together = α i.e. 10%                        1–α                    =1-α
                                         
                                              1-α       0, 05
                                                      
                               0, 05 
                                         2
                                             = 0,90   2
                                                      2

                                               x
                   Lower conf limit                     Upper conf limit
                                                                                   61
62
• Confidence interval for Population Mean, n <
   30
     – For a small sample from a normal population and σ is
       known, the normal distribution can be used.
     – If σ is unknown we use s to estimate σ
     – We need to replace the normal distribution with the    t-
       distribution
                                                ▬ standard normal
                                s 
CI (  )1     x  tn 1;1    
                                                ▬ t-distribution
                              2  n

                                                               63
t Distribution




                 64
• Example
  – The manager of a small departmental store is concerned about
    the decline of his weekly sales.
                                  99% confident the mean weekly
  – He calculated the average and standard deviation of his sales for
    the past 12 weeks,               x =sales will be between
                                         R12400 and s = R1346
                                     R11 193,14 and R13 606,86
  – Estimate with 99% confidence the population mean sales of the
    departmental store.
                                                     t11;0.995
                   s                  1346 
    x  tn 1;1      12400  3,106      
                 2  n                   12 
                         12400  1206,86 
                         11193,14 ; 13606,86 
                                                                  65
• Confidence interval for Population proportion
  – Each element in the population can be classified as a
    success or failure

                            number of successes   x
                        ˆ
     Sample proportion p =
  – Proportion always between 0 and 1 size      =
                                 sample           n
  – For large samples the sample proportion     is
    approximately normal                         ˆ
                                                 p

                               p (1  p ) 
                                ˆ      ˆ
  CI ( p )1     p  z1 
                    ˆ                      
                           2       n                      66
Exam question 7
1. In a sample of 200 residents of Johannesburg, 120 reported
   they believed the property taxes were too high. Develop a
   95% confidence interval for the proportion of the
   residents who believe the tax rate is too high. Interpret your
   answer
2. The time it takes a mechanic to tune an engine in a sample of
   20 tune ups is known to be normally distributed with a
   sample mean of 45 minutes and a sample standard deviation
   of 14 minutes. Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate
   for the mean time it will take the mechanic for all engine
   tune ups. Interpret your answer


                                                      15 MARKS
Exam question 7
PROCEDURE
1. Determine what measure your are looking at: mean,
   proportion or standard deviation
2. Select appropriate formula based on 1. and sample size (t for
   small sample sizes <30; z for larger sample sizes)
3. Put the numbers into the formula and calculate the
   confidence intervals
Exam question 7
1.
                       ˆ
     Sample proportion p =
                             number of successes
                                                 =
                                                   x   In a sample of 200 residents of
                                sample size        n   Johannesburg, 120 reported
                                                       they believed the property
                                   p (1  p ) 
                                    ˆ      ˆ           taxes were too high. Develop a
      CI ( p )1     p  z1 
                        ˆ                      
                               2       n             95% confidence interval for
 𝑝 = 120/200 = 0.6                                     the     proportion     of    the
Z 1-α = 1.96                                           residents who believe the tax
      2                                                rate is too high. Interpret your
CI = 0.6 +/_1.96 √( 0.6 0.4 )/200
                                                       answer
CI = 0.6 +/- 0.07
0.53<CI<0.67
At CL of 95% between 53% and 67% of
residents believe tax rate is too high
Exam question 7
                                        The time it takes a mechanic
                                 s 
CI (  )1   x  t n 1;1         to tune an engine in a
                             2    n  sample of 20 tune ups is
                                        known to be normally
                14
= 45 +/- 2.093 √20                      distributed with a sample
                                        mean of 45 minutes and a
                                        sample standard deviation
= 45 +/- 6.55                           of 14 minutes. Develop a
                                        95% confidence interval
38.45< µ < 51.55                        estimate for the mean time
At a confidence level of 95% the
                                        it will take the mechanic for
population average time to complete a   all engine tune ups.
tune up is between 38.45 and 51.55      Interpret your answer
minutes
HYPOTHESIS TESTING
STEPS OF A HYPOTHESIS TEST

Step 1   • State the null and alternative hypotheses

Step 2   • State the values of α

Step 3   • Calculate the value of the test statistic

Step 4   • Determine the critical value

Step 5   • Make a decision using decision rule or graph

Step 6   • Draw a conclusion

                                                          72
• Hypothesis test for Population Mean, n < 30
   – If σ is unknown we use s to estimate σ
   – We need to replace the normal distribution with
     the      t-distribution with (n - 1) degrees of
     freedom

             Testing H0: μ = μ0 for n < 30
 Alternative      Decision rule:
                                         Test statistic
 hypothesis        Reject H0 if
 H1: μ ≠ μ0        |t| ≥ tn - 1;1- α/2       x  0
                                          t
  H1: μ > μ0        t ≥ tn-1;1- α             s 
                                                 
                                              n
  H1: μ < μ0        t ≤ -tn-1;1- α                        73
• Hypothesis testing for Population proportion
                          number of successes   x
  – Sample proportion p =
                      ˆ                       =
                             sample size        n

  – Proportion always between 0 and 1
                Testing H0: p = p0 for n ≥ 30
  Alternative        Decision rule:
                                          Test statistic
  hypothesis          Reject H0 if
   H1: p ≠ p0          |z| ≥ Z1- α/2             p  p0
                                                 ˆ
                                         z
   H1: p > p0           z ≥ Z1- α               p0 (1  p0 )
   H1: p < p0           z ≤ -Z1- α                   n         74
Exam question 8
1. Oliver Tambo airport wants to test the claim that on
   average cars remain in the short term car park area longer
   than 42.5 minutes. The research team drew a random
   sample of 24 cars and found that the average time that
   these cars remained in the short term parking area was 40
   minutes with a sample standard deviation of 2 minutes.
   Test the claim at 10% level of significance and interpret.

2. The Gautrain Authority add a bus route if more than 55%
   of commuters indicate they would use the route. A
   sample of 70 commuters revealed that 42 would use a
   route from Sandton to Auckland Park. Does this route
   meet the Gautrain criteria. Use 0.05 significance level


                                                  16 MARKS
Exam question 8
Procedure
1. State H0 and Ha
2. Determine the critical value from the
   appropriate test table using α, and n
3. Compute test statistic (t or z value??)
4. Draw conclusion
Exam question 8
State hypothesis                       Oliver Tambo airport wants
H0: µ = 42.5                           to test the claim that on
Ha: µ > 42.5                           average cars remain in the
Determine critical value               short term car park area
tn-1; 1- α = t 23; 0.9 = 1.319         longer than 42.5 minutes.
Reject H0 if the test statistic is >   The research team drew a
1.319                                  random sample of 24 cars
Calculate test statistic               and found that the average
             x  0                    time that these cars
        t
              s 
                                     remained in the short term
              n
                                       parking area was 40 minutes
T=       40-42.5 = -6.12               with a sample standard
            2                          deviation of 2 minutes. Test
           √24                         the claim at 10% level of
Do not reject H0
                                       significance and interpret.
Exam question 8
State hypothesis                                The Gautrain Authority
H0: p = 0.55                                    add a bus route if more
Ha: p > 0.55                                    than 55% of commuters
Determine critical value                        indicate they would use
α = 0.05         Z = 1.64                       the route. A sample of 70
Reject H0 if Z test > 1.64                      commuters revealed that
Calculate test statistic                        42 would use a route from
                       number of successes x    Sandton to Auckland Park.
                   ˆ
 Sample proportion p =                    =
                           sample size      n   Does this route meet the
                  p  p0
                  ˆ
          z                                    Gautrain criteria. Use 0.05
                 p0 (1  p0 )
                      n
                                                significance level
         0.6−0.55
Z=                     =      0.84
     √((0.55)(0.45)/70


Do not reject H0
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
Coefficient of correlation
• The coefficient of correlation is used to measure the
  strength of association between two variables.
• The coefficient values range between -1 and 1.
   – If r = -1 (negative association) or r = +1 (positive
     association) every point falls on the regression
     line.
   – If r = 0 there is no linear pattern.
• The coefficient can be used to test for linear
  relationship between two variables.
                                                        80
Perfect positive            High positive            Low positive
         r = +1                   r = +0,9                 r = +0,3
Y                          Y                        Y




                       X                        X                        X




Perfect negative               High negative            No Correlation
     r = -1                       r = -0,8                  r=0
Y                          Y                        Y




                       X                        X                        X


                                                                             81
Exam question 10
The cost of repairing cars that were involved in accidents is one reason
that insurance premiums are so high. In an experiment 5 cars were
driven into a wall. The speeds were varied between 20km/hr and
80km/hr (X). The costs of repair (Y) were estimated and listed below:-
                     SPEED (Km/h) (X)   COST OF REPAIR (R’000)
                                                 (Y)

                20                      3
                30                      5
                40                      8
                60                      24
                80                      34

1. Use calculator to calculate coefficient of correlation. Interpret your
   answer
2. Calculate and interpret the coefficient of determination for this
   data
3. Use your calculator to construct regression line equation and
   predict repair cost at 50km/h

                                                                 10 MARKS
Exam question 10
1. Put data into calculator
2. Select regression function and select r
3. Calculate coefficient of determination
            = r2 x100%
4. Interpret results
5. Using Y = A + BX select regression function on
calculator and determine values for A & B
6. Put x = 50 into formula and calculate result
Exam question 10
1. r = 0.98
There is a very strong relationship between the
repair cost and speed.
2. r2 x 100% = 0.982 x 100 = 96%
96% of the variation in the cost of repair is
explained by the variation in the speed at which
the car crashed
3. Y = -10.7 +0.55x
X = 50 Y = 16.8

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Revision workshop 17 january 2013

  • 1. REVISION WORKSHOP NUBE 17 TH JANUARY 2013
  • 2. Organising and graphing quantitative data in a frequency distribution table. • Frequency table consists of a number of classes and each observation is counted and recorded as the frequency of the class. • If n observations need to be classified into a frequency table, determine: – Number of classes: c  1  3,3log n xmax  xmin – Class width  c 2
  • 3. Organising and graphing quantitative data in a frequency distribution table. Example: The following data represents the number of telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per hour. 8 11 12 20 18 10 14 18 16 9 5 7 11 12 15 14 16 9 17 11 6 18 9 15 13 12 11 6 10 8 11 13 22 11 11 14 11 10 9 19 14 17 9 3 3 16 8 2 3
  • 4. Frequency distribution Number of classes  1  3,3log n  1  3,3log 48  6,5  7 xmax  xmin 22  2 Class width    2,86  3 k 7 8 11 12 20 18 10 14 18 16 9 5 7 11 12 15 14 16 9 17 11 6 18 9 15 13 12 11 6 10 8 11 13 22 11 11 14 11 10 9 19 14 17 9 3 3 16 8 2 4
  • 5. Frequency distribution – first class [ xmin; ; min) class width) 2 5)32x – second class [ 5 ;; 8  3 ) width) 5 5 5 ) class “[“ value is included in class 8 11 12 20 18 10 14 18 16 9 5 7 11 12 15 14 16 9 17 11 6 18 9 15 13 12 11 6 10 8 “)“ value is excluded from class 11 13 22 11 11 14 11 10 9 19 14 17 9 3 3 16 8 2 5
  • 6. Frequency distribution Classes Count [2;5) │││ 3 8 11 12 20 …. [5;8) |││││ | 4 5 7 11 12 …. [8;11) |│││││││││││ 11 6 18 9 15 …. [11;14) |│││││││││││││ | 13 11 13 22 11 …. [14;17) │││││││││ 9 19 14 17 9 …. [17;20) |││││││ 6 [20;23) ││ 2 6
  • 7. Frequency distribution Classes Frequency (f) [2;5) 3 [5;8) 4 [8;11) 11 [11;14) 13 [14;17) 9 [17;20) 6 [20;23) 2 Total 48 7
  • 8. Frequency distribution Classes f % frequency [2;5) 3 3/48×100 = 6,3 [5;8) 4 4/48×100 = 8,3 [8;11) 11 11/48×100 = 22,9 [11;14) 13 27,1 [14;17) 9 18,8 [17;20) 6 12,5 [20;23) 2 4,2 Total 48 100 8
  • 9. Frequency distribution Classes f %f Cumulative frequency (F) [2;5) 3 6,3 3 [5;8) 4 8,3 3+4=7 [8;11) 11 22,9 7 + 11 = 18 [11;14) 13 27,1 18 + 13 = 31 [14;17) 9 18,8 31 + 9 = 40 [17;20) 6 12,5 40 + 6 = 46 [20;23) 2 4,2 46 + 2 = 48 Total 48 100 9
  • 10. Frequency distribution Classes f %f F %F [2;5) 3 6,3 3 3/48×100 = 6,3 [5;8) 4 8,3 7 7/48×100 = 14,6 [8;11) 11 22,9 18 18/48×100 = 37,5 [11;14) 13 27,1 31 64,6 [14;17) 9 18,8 40 83,3 [17;20) 6 12,5 46 95,8 [20;23) 2 4,2 48 100 Total 48 100 10
  • 11. Frequency distribution Classes f F Class mid-points (x) [2;5) 3 3 (2 + 5)/2 = 3,5 [5;8) 4 7 (5 + 8)/2 = 6,5 [8;11) 11 18 (8 + 11)/2 = 9,5 [11;14) 13 31 (11 + 14)/2 = 12,5 [14;17) 9 40 15,5 [17;20) 6 46 18,5 [20;23) 2 48 21,5 Total 48 11
  • 12. Frequency distribution Classes f %f F %F (x) [2;5) 3 6,3 3 6,3 3,5 [5;8) 4 8,3 7 14,6 6,5 [8;11) 11 22,9 18 37,5 9,5 [11;14) 13 27,1 31 64,6 12,5 [14;17) 9 18,8 40 83,3 15,5 [17;20) 6 12,5 46 95,8 18,5 [20;23) 2 4,2 48 100 21,5 Total 48 100 12
  • 13. Histograms Classes f %f [2;5) 3 6,3 [5;8) 4 8,3 [8;11) 11 22,9 y-axis [11;14) 13 27,1 [14;17) 9 18,8 [17;20) 6 12,5 [20;23) 2 4,2 x-axis 13
  • 14. Histograms Number of telephone calls per hour at a municipal call centre 14 Number of hours 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 Number of calls 14
  • 15. Definitions Frequency Polygon A line graph of a frequency distribution and offers a useful alternative to a histogram. Frequency polygon is useful in conveying the shape of the distribution Ogive A graphic representation of the cumulative frequency distribution. Used for approximating the number of values less than or equal to a specified value 15
  • 16. Frequency polygons Class mid-points (x) f %f 3,5 3 6,3 6,5 4 8,3 9,5 11 22,9 y-axis 12,5 13 27,1 15,5 9 18,8 18,5 6 12,5 21,5 2 4,2 x-axis 16
  • 17. Frequency polygons Number of telephone calls per hour at a municipal call centre (x) 14 3,5 Number of hours 12 6,5 10 8 9,5 6 12,5 4 2 15,5 0 18,5 0.5 3.5 6.5 9.5 12.5 15.5 18.5 21.5 24.5 21,5 Arbitrary mid-points to Number of calls close the polygon. 17
  • 18. Ogives Classes F %F [2;5) 3 6,3 [5;8) 7 14,6 [8;11) 18 37,5 y-axis [11;14) 31 64,6 [14;17) 40 83,3 [17;20) 46 95,8 [20;23) 48 100 x-axis 18
  • 19. Ogives Ogive of number of call received at a call centre per hour 100 number of hours 90 % Cumulative 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 Number of calls None of the hours had less than 2 calls. 19
  • 20. Ogives Ogive of number of call received 20% of the hours had at a call centre per hour more than 17 calls 100 number of hours per hour. 90 % Cumulative 80 70 80% of the 60 hours had 50 less than 40 30 17 calls 20 per hour. 10 0 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 50% of Number ofhad less the hours calls than 12 calls per hour. 20
  • 21. Exam question 2 A garbage removal company would like to start charging by the weight of a customers bin rather than by the number of bins put out. They select a sample of 25 customers and weigh their garbage bins. The weights in kg are given below:- 14.5 5.2 16.0 14.7 15.6 18.9 13.5 24.6 24.5 7.4 13.2 23.4 13.9 12.0 22.5 31.4 16.1 10.9 25.1 22.1 14.8 15.1 4.9 17.0 10.3 1. Construct a frequency table to describe the data. Include a frequency and relative (%) frequency column. (Hint: start the class intervals with the whole number just smaller than the lowest value in the dataset)
  • 22. Procedure 1. Calculate the range of the dataset 2. Calculate the no of classes 3. Calculate the class width 4. Construct table showing the intervals calculated in 1 to 3 5. Put in the tally for each interval and then show as frequency 6. Calculate the relative (%) frequency 13 marks
  • 23. Range 31.4 - 4.9 = 26.5 No of classes K or c= 1+3.3logn n = 25 K or c= 3.3 log (25) = 5.61 ≈ 6 Class Width xmax  xmin = 26.5/6 = 4.41 ≈ 5 Class width  c
  • 24. No of classes = 6 Class width = 5 INTERVALS TALLY FREQUENCY (f) RELATIVE FREQUENCY (%f) 4-<9 111 3 12 9 - < 14 1111 1 6 24 14 - < 19 1111 1111 9 36 19 - < 24 111 3 12 24 - < 29 111 3 12 29 - < 34 1 1 4 25 100
  • 25. Exam question 2 2. Comment on the interval 4% of bins weighed between containing the lowest 29 & 34 kg percentage 3. In which interval do the data Largest no. of bins weighed tend to cluster? Which between 14 & 19kg. We descriptive statistics measure, assume mode will fall in this can we assume, would be interval (highest frequency) found in this interval? 4. Comment on the shape of +ve skewed as more the distribution without values located in lower drawing a graph . Give reasons intervals 7 MARKS
  • 26. Quartiles & Box & Whisker Plots
  • 27. • Quartiles • Percentiles • Interquartile range 27
  • 28. QUARTILES 28
  • 29. • QUARTILES – Order data in ascending order. – Divide data set into four quarters. 25% 25% 25% 25% Min Q1 Q2 Q3 Max 29
  • 30. Example – Given the following data set: 2 5 8 −3 5 2 6 5 −4 Determine Q1 for the sample of nine measurements: •Order the measurements −4 −3 2 2 5 5 5 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q1 is the  n  1  1 4   9  1  1 4  2,5th value Find difference between data for 2 & 3 2-(-3)=5 and multiply by the decimal portion of value : 5 x 0.5 = 2.5 30 Add to smallest figure: -3 + 2.5: Q1 = 0.5
  • 31. Example – Given the following data set: 2 5 8 −3 5 2 6 5 −4 Determine Q3 for the sample of nine measurements: −4 −3 2 2 5 5 5 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Q3 is the  n  1  3 4   9  1  3 4  7,5th value Q3 = 5 + 0,5(6 − 5) = 5,5 31
  • 32. Example – Given the following data set: 2 5 8 −3 5 2 6 5 −4 Interquartile range = Q3 – Q1 Q3 = 5,5 Q1 = −0,5 Interquartile range = 5,5 – (−0,5) =6 32
  • 33. INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) • Difference between the third and first quartiles • Indicates how far apart the first and third quartiles are IQR = Q3 – Q1 33
  • 34. BOX & WHISKER PLOT • Provides a graphical summary of data based on 5 summary measures or values – First quartile, median, third quartile ,lower limit, upper limit • Box and whisker plot detects outliers in a data set LL = Q1 – 1,5 (IQR) UL = Q3 + 1,5 (IQR) 34
  • 35. BOX-AND-WISKER PLOT Me = 12,38 LL = Q1 – 1,5(IQR) = 9,36 – 1,5(6,31) = –0,11 Q3 = 15,67 Q1 = 9,36 UL = Q3 + 1,5(IQR) = 15,67 – 1,5(6,31) = 25,14 IRR = 6,31 1,5(IQR) IQR 1,5(IQR) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 • Any value smaller than −0,11 will be an outlier. • Any value larger than 25,14 will be an outlier. 35
  • 36. Exam question 3 The Tubeka brothers spent the following amounts in Rand on groceries over the last 8 weeks:- 54 56 89 67 74 57 43 51 1. Calculate a five number summary table 2. Construct a box and whisker plot for the data 3. Determine whether there are any outliers. Show calculations 20 MARKS PROCEDURE 1. Reorder the data set 2. Identify maximum and minimum values in dataset 3. Calculate median 4. Calculate Q1 & Q3 5. Construct plot 6. Calculate upper & lower limits for dataset to determine if outliers present
  • 37. 43 51 54 56 57 67 74 89 xmin = 43 xmax = 89 median = (56+57)/2 = 56.5 Q1 = 51.75 Q3 = 72.25 Q1 = (n+1) (1/4) = (8+1) x ¼ = 2.25 value Between 51 & 54 54-51 = 3 multiply by decimal portion of value 3x 0.25 = 0.75 and add the lower value Q1 = 51 + 0.75 = 51.75 Q3 = (n+1) (¾) = (8+1) x ¾ = 6.75 value Between 67 & 74 74 – 67 = 7 multiply by decimal portion of value 7 x 0.75 = 5.25 and add lower value Q3 = 67 + 5.25 = 72.25
  • 38. 43 51 54 56 57 67 74 89 xmin = 43 xmax = 89 median = (56+57)/2 = 56.5 Q1 = 51.75 Q3 = 72.25 OUTLIERS 1. Calculate upper & lower limits LL = Q1 – 1,5 (IQR) UL = Q3 + 1,5 (IQR) IQR = 72.25 – 51.75 = 20.5 LL = 51.75 – 1,5(20.5) = 21 UL = 72.25 + 1.5(20.5) = 103 No values smaller than 21 or greater than 103 therefore no outliers present
  • 40. • ARITHMETIC MEAN – Data is given in a frequency table – Only an approximate value of the mean x fx i i f i where f i  frequency of the i th class interval xi = class midpoint of the i th class interval 40
  • 41. • MEDIAN – Data is given in a frequency table. – First cumulative frequency ≥ n/2 will indicate the median class interval. – Median can also be determined from the ogive.  ui  li   n  Fi 1  M e  li  2 fi where li = lower boundary of the median interval ui = upper boundary of the median interval Fi -1 = cumulative frequency of interval foregoing median interval fi = frequency of the median interval 41
  • 42. • MODE – Class interval that has the largest frequency value will contain the mode. – Mode is the class midpoint of this class. – Mode must be determined from the histogram. 42
  • 43. Example – The following data represents the number of telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per hour. To calculate the Number of Number of mean for the sample calls hours fi xi of the 48 hours: [2–under 5) 3 3,5 determine the class [5–under 8) 4 6,5 midpoints [8–under 11) 11 9,5 [11–under 14) 13 12,5 [14–under 17) 9 15,5 [17–under 20) 6 18,5 [20–under 23) 2 21,5 n = 48 43
  • 44. Example – The following data represents the number of telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per hour. x  fi xi Number of Number of calls hours fi xi  fi [2–under 5) 3 3,5 597  [5–under 8) 4 6,5 48 [8–under 11) 11 9,5  12, 44 [11–under 14) 13 12,5 Average number [14–under 17) 9 15,5 of calls per hour [17–under 20) 6 18,5 is 12,44. [20–under 23) 2 21,5 n = 48 44
  • 45. Exam question 3 The number of overtime hours worked by 40 part-time employees of a security company in 1 week is shown in the following frequency distribution:- Hours per Frequency (f) week 2.1 - < 2.8 12 2.8 - < 3.5 13 3.5 - < 4.2 7 4.2 - < 4.9 5 4.9 - < 5.6 2 5.6 - < 6.3 1 1. Estimate the mean number of overtime hours worked 2. What % of employees worked at least 4.2 hours overtime? 8 marks
  • 46. Exam question 3 Procedure 1. Calculate the midpoint x for each interval (lower limit + upper limit/2) 2. Multiply f by the midpoint x 3. Total the fx and f columns 4. Divide ∑fx by ∑f
  • 47. Exam question 3 Hours per week Frequency (f) Mid point (x) fx 2.1 - < 2.8 12 (2.1 + 2.8)/2= 29.4 2.45 2.8 - < 3.5 13 3.15 40.95 3.5 - < 4.2 7 3.85 26.95 4.2 - < 4.9 5 4.55 22.75 4.9 - < 5.6 2 5.25 10.5 5.6 - < 6.3 1 5.95 5.95 40 136.5 Mean = 136.5/40 = 3.41hrs Employees at least 4.2 hrs = 8 8/40 *100 = 20%
  • 49. • PERCENTILES – Order data in ascending order. – Divide data set into hundred parts. 10% 90% Min P10 Max 80% 20% Min P80 Max 50% 50% Min P50 = Q2 Max 49
  • 50. Example – Given the following data set: 2 5 8 −3 5 2 6 5 −4 Determine P20 for the sample of nine measurements: −4 −3 2 2 5 5 5 6 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 P20 is the  n  1    9  1    2 p 100 20 100 nd value P20 = −3 50
  • 51. Example – The following data represents the number of telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per hour. Number of Number of P60 calls hours fi F = np/100 [2–under 5) 3 3 = 48(60)/100 [5–under 8) 4 7 = 28,8 [8–under 11) 11 18 The first cumulative [11–under 14) 13 31 frequency ≥ 28,8 [14–under 17) 9 40 [17–under 20) 6 46 [20–under 23) 2 48 n = 48 51
  • 52. Example – The following data represents the number of telephone calls received for two days at a municipal call centre. The data was measured per hour. P60 Number of Number of  u p  l p   100  Fp1  np calls hours fi F  lp  fp [2–under 5) 3 3  11  14  11 28,8  18  [5–under 8) 4 7  13, 49 13 [8–under 11) 11 18 [11–under 14) 13 31 60% of the time less [14–under 17) 9 40 than 13,49 or 40% of [17–under 20) 6 46 the time more than 13,49 calls per hour. [20–under 23) 2 48 n = 48 52
  • 53. Exam question 3 1. John, one of the part-time workers was told he falls on the 70th percentile. Calculate the value and explain what it means. PROCEDURE 1. Calculate the cumulative frequencies 2. Calculate which class the required percentile falls into by using P =np/100 3. Once you have identified the class use the percentile formula given in the tables book to calculate the value. Take CARE to order the calculation correctly. 4 MARKS
  • 54. Exam question 3 P = np/100 = 40*70/100 Hours per Frequency Cumulative =28 week (f) F 2.1 - < 2.8 12 12 P70 = 3.5 + [ (4.2-3.5)(28-25)]/7 2.8 - < 3.5 13 25 = 3.5 + 0.8 3.5 - < 4.2 7 32 =3.8 4.2 - < 4.9 5 37 4.9 - < 5.6 2 39 70% of the workers worked fewer hours overtime than John. 70% of 5.6 - < 6.3 1 40 the workers worked fewer than 3.8 hrs. 30% of the workers worked 40 more overtime hours than John. 30% of the employees worked more than 3.8hrs.
  • 56. Confidence interval – An interval is calculated around the sample statistic Population parameter included in interval Confidence interval 56
  • 57. Confidence interval – An upper and lower limit within in which the Example: population parameter is expected to lie Meaning of a 90% confidence interval: – Limits will vary from sample to sample – Specify the probability thatsamples taken from 90% of all possible the interval will include the parameter produce an interval that will population will include the population parameter – Typical used 90%, 95%, 99% – Probability denoted by • (1 – α) known as the level of confidence • α is the significance level 57
  • 58. • An interval estimate consists of a range of values with an upper & lower limit • The population parameter is expected to lie within this interval with a certain level of confidence • Limits of an interval vary from sample to sample therefore we must also specify the probability that an interval will contain the parameter • Ideally probability should be as high as possible 58
  • 59. SO REMEMBER •We can choose the probability •Probability is denoted by (1-α) •Typical values are 0.9 (90%); 0.95 (95%) and 0.99 (99%) •The probability is known as the LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE •α is known as the SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL •α corresponds to an area under a curve •Since we take the confidence level into account when we estimate an interval, the interval is called CONFIDENCE INTERVAL 59
  • 60. Confidence interval for Population Mean, n ≥ 30 - population need not be normally distributed - sample will be approximately normal    CI (  )1   x  Z1   , if  is known  2 n  s  CI (  )1   x  Z1   , if  is not known  2 n 60
  • 61.   Example : CI (  )1   x  Z1   , if  is known  2 n 90% confidence interval  s  CI (  )1   x  Z1   , if  is not known  2 n 1 –   0,90   0,10 1 90% of all sample  0,10 means fall in this area   0, 05 2 2 These 2 areas added Confidence level together = α i.e. 10% 1–α =1-α  1-α   0, 05  0, 05  2 = 0,90 2 2 x Lower conf limit Upper conf limit 61
  • 62. 62
  • 63. • Confidence interval for Population Mean, n < 30 – For a small sample from a normal population and σ is known, the normal distribution can be used. – If σ is unknown we use s to estimate σ – We need to replace the normal distribution with the t- distribution ▬ standard normal  s  CI (  )1   x  tn 1;1   ▬ t-distribution  2 n 63
  • 65. • Example – The manager of a small departmental store is concerned about the decline of his weekly sales. 99% confident the mean weekly – He calculated the average and standard deviation of his sales for the past 12 weeks, x =sales will be between R12400 and s = R1346 R11 193,14 and R13 606,86 – Estimate with 99% confidence the population mean sales of the departmental store. t11;0.995  s   1346   x  tn 1;1    12400  3,106   2 n  12   12400  1206,86   11193,14 ; 13606,86  65
  • 66. • Confidence interval for Population proportion – Each element in the population can be classified as a success or failure number of successes x ˆ Sample proportion p = – Proportion always between 0 and 1 size = sample n – For large samples the sample proportion is approximately normal ˆ p  p (1  p )  ˆ ˆ CI ( p )1   p  z1  ˆ   2 n  66
  • 67. Exam question 7 1. In a sample of 200 residents of Johannesburg, 120 reported they believed the property taxes were too high. Develop a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of the residents who believe the tax rate is too high. Interpret your answer 2. The time it takes a mechanic to tune an engine in a sample of 20 tune ups is known to be normally distributed with a sample mean of 45 minutes and a sample standard deviation of 14 minutes. Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the mean time it will take the mechanic for all engine tune ups. Interpret your answer 15 MARKS
  • 68. Exam question 7 PROCEDURE 1. Determine what measure your are looking at: mean, proportion or standard deviation 2. Select appropriate formula based on 1. and sample size (t for small sample sizes <30; z for larger sample sizes) 3. Put the numbers into the formula and calculate the confidence intervals
  • 69. Exam question 7 1. ˆ Sample proportion p = number of successes = x In a sample of 200 residents of sample size n Johannesburg, 120 reported they believed the property  p (1  p )  ˆ ˆ taxes were too high. Develop a CI ( p )1   p  z1  ˆ   2 n  95% confidence interval for 𝑝 = 120/200 = 0.6 the proportion of the Z 1-α = 1.96 residents who believe the tax 2 rate is too high. Interpret your CI = 0.6 +/_1.96 √( 0.6 0.4 )/200 answer CI = 0.6 +/- 0.07 0.53<CI<0.67 At CL of 95% between 53% and 67% of residents believe tax rate is too high
  • 70. Exam question 7 The time it takes a mechanic  s  CI (  )1   x  t n 1;1   to tune an engine in a  2 n  sample of 20 tune ups is known to be normally 14 = 45 +/- 2.093 √20 distributed with a sample mean of 45 minutes and a sample standard deviation = 45 +/- 6.55 of 14 minutes. Develop a 95% confidence interval 38.45< µ < 51.55 estimate for the mean time At a confidence level of 95% the it will take the mechanic for population average time to complete a all engine tune ups. tune up is between 38.45 and 51.55 Interpret your answer minutes
  • 72. STEPS OF A HYPOTHESIS TEST Step 1 • State the null and alternative hypotheses Step 2 • State the values of α Step 3 • Calculate the value of the test statistic Step 4 • Determine the critical value Step 5 • Make a decision using decision rule or graph Step 6 • Draw a conclusion 72
  • 73. • Hypothesis test for Population Mean, n < 30 – If σ is unknown we use s to estimate σ – We need to replace the normal distribution with the t-distribution with (n - 1) degrees of freedom Testing H0: μ = μ0 for n < 30 Alternative Decision rule: Test statistic hypothesis Reject H0 if H1: μ ≠ μ0 |t| ≥ tn - 1;1- α/2 x  0 t H1: μ > μ0 t ≥ tn-1;1- α  s     n H1: μ < μ0 t ≤ -tn-1;1- α 73
  • 74. • Hypothesis testing for Population proportion number of successes x – Sample proportion p = ˆ = sample size n – Proportion always between 0 and 1 Testing H0: p = p0 for n ≥ 30 Alternative Decision rule: Test statistic hypothesis Reject H0 if H1: p ≠ p0 |z| ≥ Z1- α/2 p  p0 ˆ z H1: p > p0 z ≥ Z1- α p0 (1  p0 ) H1: p < p0 z ≤ -Z1- α n 74
  • 75. Exam question 8 1. Oliver Tambo airport wants to test the claim that on average cars remain in the short term car park area longer than 42.5 minutes. The research team drew a random sample of 24 cars and found that the average time that these cars remained in the short term parking area was 40 minutes with a sample standard deviation of 2 minutes. Test the claim at 10% level of significance and interpret. 2. The Gautrain Authority add a bus route if more than 55% of commuters indicate they would use the route. A sample of 70 commuters revealed that 42 would use a route from Sandton to Auckland Park. Does this route meet the Gautrain criteria. Use 0.05 significance level 16 MARKS
  • 76. Exam question 8 Procedure 1. State H0 and Ha 2. Determine the critical value from the appropriate test table using α, and n 3. Compute test statistic (t or z value??) 4. Draw conclusion
  • 77. Exam question 8 State hypothesis Oliver Tambo airport wants H0: µ = 42.5 to test the claim that on Ha: µ > 42.5 average cars remain in the Determine critical value short term car park area tn-1; 1- α = t 23; 0.9 = 1.319 longer than 42.5 minutes. Reject H0 if the test statistic is > The research team drew a 1.319 random sample of 24 cars Calculate test statistic and found that the average x  0 time that these cars t  s    remained in the short term  n parking area was 40 minutes T= 40-42.5 = -6.12 with a sample standard 2 deviation of 2 minutes. Test √24 the claim at 10% level of Do not reject H0 significance and interpret.
  • 78. Exam question 8 State hypothesis The Gautrain Authority H0: p = 0.55 add a bus route if more Ha: p > 0.55 than 55% of commuters Determine critical value indicate they would use α = 0.05 Z = 1.64 the route. A sample of 70 Reject H0 if Z test > 1.64 commuters revealed that Calculate test statistic 42 would use a route from number of successes x Sandton to Auckland Park. ˆ Sample proportion p = = sample size n Does this route meet the p  p0 ˆ z Gautrain criteria. Use 0.05 p0 (1  p0 ) n significance level 0.6−0.55 Z= = 0.84 √((0.55)(0.45)/70 Do not reject H0
  • 80. Coefficient of correlation • The coefficient of correlation is used to measure the strength of association between two variables. • The coefficient values range between -1 and 1. – If r = -1 (negative association) or r = +1 (positive association) every point falls on the regression line. – If r = 0 there is no linear pattern. • The coefficient can be used to test for linear relationship between two variables. 80
  • 81. Perfect positive High positive Low positive r = +1 r = +0,9 r = +0,3 Y Y Y X X X Perfect negative High negative No Correlation r = -1 r = -0,8 r=0 Y Y Y X X X 81
  • 82. Exam question 10 The cost of repairing cars that were involved in accidents is one reason that insurance premiums are so high. In an experiment 5 cars were driven into a wall. The speeds were varied between 20km/hr and 80km/hr (X). The costs of repair (Y) were estimated and listed below:- SPEED (Km/h) (X) COST OF REPAIR (R’000) (Y) 20 3 30 5 40 8 60 24 80 34 1. Use calculator to calculate coefficient of correlation. Interpret your answer 2. Calculate and interpret the coefficient of determination for this data 3. Use your calculator to construct regression line equation and predict repair cost at 50km/h 10 MARKS
  • 83. Exam question 10 1. Put data into calculator 2. Select regression function and select r 3. Calculate coefficient of determination = r2 x100% 4. Interpret results 5. Using Y = A + BX select regression function on calculator and determine values for A & B 6. Put x = 50 into formula and calculate result
  • 84. Exam question 10 1. r = 0.98 There is a very strong relationship between the repair cost and speed. 2. r2 x 100% = 0.982 x 100 = 96% 96% of the variation in the cost of repair is explained by the variation in the speed at which the car crashed 3. Y = -10.7 +0.55x X = 50 Y = 16.8