Despite the close relation between tourism and the territory, the application of spatial analysis methods in tourism is not abundant in the literature. The recent developments in the analysis of space-time models, the existence of geo-referenced information and the availability of suitable software tools create new opportunities for studying the role of space in tourism activities. An exploratory spatial data analysis is developed and a space-time panel model is computed in this work in order to analyse the relations between tourism demand and the existence of infrastructures, cultural assets and natural resources in European regions, Spatial effects have been clearly identified.

1. Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐(me
analysis
on
European
regions
João
Romão
University
of
Algarve
Towards
opera9onalising
UNESCO
Recommenda9ons
on
Historic
Urban
Landscape
Naples,
March
2–3,
2015

2. New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions
Despite
the
close
rela9on
between
tourism
and
the
territory,
the
applica9on
of
spa9al
analysis
methods
in
tourism
is
not
abundant
in
the
literature.
The
recent
developments
in
the
analysis
of
space-­‐?me
models,
the
existence
of
geo-­‐referenced
informa9on
and
the
availability
of
suitable
soQware
tools
create
new
opportuni9es
for
studying
the
role
of
space
in
tourism
ac9vi9es.
An
exploratory
spa9al
data
analysis
is
developed
and
a
space-­‐9me
panel
model
is
computed
in
this
work
in
order
to
analyse
the
rela9ons
between
tourism
demand
and
the
existence
of
infrastructures,
cultural
assets
and
natural
resources
in
European
regions,
Spa?al
effects
have
been
clearly
iden?fied.
Abstract

3. Tourism
is
a
place
oriented
ac?vity,
where
territories
interact
with
each
others.
Natural
resources
and
cultural
heritage
are
essen9al
for
the
sustainable
development
of
tourism.
The
crea9on
of
a
differen?ated
experience
in
each
tourism
des9na9on
depends
on
the
ability
to
integrate
these
local
and
specific
assets
into
the
tourism
supply:
unique
experiences
can
only
be
created
if
they
are
based
on
the
local
characteris9cs
of
the
territory,
once
they
are
not
possible
to
imitate
in
other
places.
This
exploita9on
of
local
resources
raises
the
ques9on
of
the
poten9al
nega9ve
impacts
on
the
territories
and
establishes
a
link
between
the
concepts
of
compe??veness
-­‐
the
ability
to
compete
in
global
markets
for
the
aUrac9on
of
tourists
-­‐
and
sustainability
-­‐
the
ability
to
preserve
local
resources
in
the
long
run.
“Environmental
paradox”:
the
produc9on
of
tourism
experiences
depends
on
the
exploita9on
of
local
natural
resources
and,
in
the
long
run,
it
also
depends
on
its
preserva9on.
The
same
can
be
applied
to
cultural
heritage.
In
the
last
years,
most
of
the
interna9onal
tourism
related
organiza9ons
(including
UNESCO)
have
proposed
orienta9ons
for
a
sustainable
process
tourism
development.
1.
Introduc?on
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

4. Analysis
of
the
importance
of
cultural
and
natural
resources
for
regional
tourism
demand.
Test
and
evalua9on
of
spa?al
effects
among
the
regions.
Presenta9on
of
overall
data
(252
NUTS
2
European
regions;
2003-­‐2012).
Exploratory
spa?al
data
analysis
(237
NUTS2
European
regions).
Space-­‐?me
panel
model.
All
the
NUTS
2
regions
from
Austria,
Belgium,
Bulgaria,
Cyprus,
Czech
Republic,
Denmark,
Estonia,
Finland,
France,
Germany,
Greece,
Hungary,
Italy,
Latvia,
Lithuania,
Luxemburg,
Malta,
Netherlands,
Poland,
Portugal,
Romania,
Slovakia,
Slovenia,
Spain
and
United
Kingdom.
Introduc?on
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

5. Tourism
demand
-­‐
Nights
spent
at
tourist
accommoda9on
establishments
in
2012
(millions)
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
South
European
regions
(West
Mediterranean)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

6. Tourism
demand
-­‐
Nights
spent
at
tourist
accommoda9on
establishments
(growth
between
2003
and
2012)
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
Eastern
European
regions
(West
Mediterranean)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

7. Tourism
demand
-­‐
Nights
spent
at
tourist
accommoda9on
establishments
(growth
between
2003
and
2012)
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
urban
areas
(Paris,
Barcelona,
London,
Berlin)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

8. Regional
cultural
assets
-­‐
number
of
sites
classified
as
World
Heritage
by
UNESCO
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
South
European
regions
(West
Mediterranean)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

9. Regional
natural
resources
-­‐
percentage
of
the
territory
in
Natura
2000
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
South
European
regions
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

10. Regional
natural
resources
and
cultural
assets
Tourism
demand,
culture
and
nature:
data
and
variables
Importance
of
South
European
areas
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

11. logNIT
it
=
ß0
+
ß1
logBEDS
it
+
ß2
HERIT
it
+
ß3
NAT
it
+
uit
Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance
Intercept 10.1960 0.2089 48.8098 < 2.2e-16
0.001
LogBeds 0.4553 0.0190 24.0049 < 2.2e-16
0.001
NAT 0.0034 0.0010 3.4350 0.0006 0.001
HERIT 0.1063 0.0108 9.8615 < 2.2e-16
0.001
!
Despite
de
very
high
significance
of
all
the
parameters
es9mated,
the
rela9vely
low
score
obtained
for
the
R-­‐Squared
(0.26)
suggests
that
the
es9ma9ons
can
be
improved
introducing
spa?al
effects.
Posi?ve
rela?on
between
tourism
demand
and
all
the
independent
variables.
Panel
regression
without
spa?al
effects
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

12. Moran
I
tests
for
spa?al
autocorrela?on
1st
and
last
years
of
observa9ons
for
each
variable
The
results
obtained
reveal
the
existence
of
spa?al
correla?on
in
all
the
variables
(z-­‐scores
above
the
threshold
of
1.96,
for
5%
significance
level.
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

13. Local
Indicators
of
Spa?al
Autocorrela?on
cluster
distribu9on
based
on
the
local
G
sta9s9cs
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
Cluster
of
high
values
(red)
in
Southwest
European
regions
Cluster
of
low
values
(blue)
in
Eastern
European
regions
Tourism
demand
(nights
spent
in
accommoda9on
establishments
in
2012)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

14. Local
Indicators
of
Spa?al
Autocorrela?on
cluster
distribu9on
based
on
the
local
G
sta9s9cs
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
Cluster
of
high
values
(red)
in
Southwest
European
regions
Clusters
of
low
values
(blue)
in
Central
/
Northern
European
regions
Cultural
resources
(cultural
sites
classified
by
UNESCO
in
2012)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

15. Local
Indicators
of
Spa?al
Autocorrela?on
cluster
distribu9on
based
on
the
local
G
sta9s9cs
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
Cluster
of
high
values
(red)
in
Southern
European
regions
Clusters
of
low
values
(blue)
in
Northern
European
regions
Natural
resources
(percentage
of
the
territory
in
Natura
2000
in
2011)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

16. Local
Indicators
of
Spa?al
Autocorrela?on
Bivariate
analysis
rela9ng
tourism
demand
with
each
of
the
independent
variables
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
Clusters
of
high
values
for
cultural
assets
and
low
tourism
demand
(pink)
in
Eastern
European
regions
Clusters
of
high
values
for
both
(red)
in
South
Western
European
regions
Tourism
demand
and
cultural
heritage
“Irregular”
spa?al
paUerns.
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

17. Local
Indicators
of
Spa?al
Autocorrela?on
Bivariate
analysis
rela9ng
tourism
demand
with
each
of
the
independent
variables
Territory:
Exploratory
Spa?al
Data
Analysis
Clusters
of
high
values
for
natural
assets
and
low
tourism
demand
(pink)
in
Eastern
European
regions
Clusters
of
high
values
for
both
(red)
in
South
Western
European
regions
Tourism
demand
and
natural
resources
High
number
of
“spa?al
outliers”
(high
value
for
one
variable
and
low
for
the
other)
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

18. logNIT
it
=
ρWYit
+
ß0
+
ß1
logBEDS
it
+
ß2
HERIT
it
+
ß3
NAT
it
+
uit
uit
=
λWuit
+
εit
W
is
a
weights-­‐matrix,
defining
the
impacts
of
each
region
on
its
neighbors;
(neighborhood
defined
by
con9guity,
level
2);
ρ
is
the
spa9al
autoregressive
coefficient
(spa9al
effects
on
the
dependent
variable)
λ
is
the
spa9al
autocorrela9on
coefficient
(spa9al
effects
on
the
error
term)
AVer
specifying
the
necessary
tests,
a
model
with
both
types
of
spa?al
effects
has
been
computed.
Panel
regression
with
spa?al
effects
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

19. Posi9ve
overall
spa?al
effects
(error
variance
+
spa9al
auto-­‐regressive
coefficient)
Posi?ve
rela?on
between
tourism
demand
and
all
the
independent
variables,
but
not
significant
for
natural
resources.
Panel
regression
without
spa?al
effects
Parameters Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(>|t|) Significance
Intercept 14.7480 0.2738 53.8551 < 2.2e-16
0.001
LogBeds 0.3996 0.0229 17.4585 < 2.2e-16
0.001
NAT 0.0002 0.0012 0.1783 0.86
HERIT 0.0781 0.0110 7.0969 1.3e-12
0.001
Spatial auto-regressive coefficient -0.2478 0.0260 -3.2941 0.0009 0.001
Error variance (spatial) 0.6535 0.0386 16.947 < 2.2e-16
0.001
Error variance (non spatial) 16.4451 1.9384 8.484 < 2.2e-16
0.001
!
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

20. Confirma?on
of
the
poten?al
of
spa?al
analysis
for
tourism
studies.
Although
this
kind
of
methodology
has
few
applica9ons
in
the
field
of
tourism,
the
results
show
the
existence
of
spa9al
paUerns
in
tourism
demand
and
its
determinants.
The
overall
data
presented
in
the
beginning
of
this
work
revealed
that
tourism
in
South
European
regions
–
where
natural
resources
play
a
decisive
role
–
is
s?ll
very
important
in
the
European
context.
Nevertheless,
this
informa9on
also
showed
that
urban
tourism
(at
least
in
some
major
ci9es)
and
the
Eastern
side
of
Europe
have
registered
higher
growth
rates
along
the
last
decade,
sugges9ng
a
shiV
in
travel
mo?va?ons
and
spa?al
paUerns.
Discussion
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

21. The
exploratory
spa?al
analysis
clearly
revealed
the
existence
of
spa?al
effects
for
regional
tourism
aUrac?veness
and
also
for
the
determinants
of
tourism
demand.
The
iden9fied
spa9al
effects
are,
in
general,
more
clear
in
the
South
European
regions.
Regional
aUrac?veness
is
related,
not
only
to
their
natural
and
cultural
resources,
but
also
to
the
resources
available
in
the
neighbour
regions
This
has
clear
implica9ons
in
terms
of
tourism
promo9on
and
infrastructure
planning
(transports,
accommoda9on,
etc).
The
spa9al
effects
iden9fied
in
the
space-­‐?me
model
reveal
the
existence
of:
-­‐
a
compe??ve
process
expressed
in
the
nega9ve
value
of
the
spa9al
autoregressive
coefficient,
showing
that
tourism
demand
in
one
region
can
have
nega9ve
consequences
in
the
con9guous
regions;
-­‐
posi?ve
impacts
of
unmodelled
effects
expressed
in
the
spa9al
error
variance
parameter
(almost
three
9mes
higher);
-­‐
overall
posi?ve
spa?al
effects.
Discussion
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

22. Local
resource
management,
promo?onal
strategies,
transport
systems
and
accommoda?on
provision
can
be
more
efficiently
planned
if
there
is
some
collabora?on
among
clusters
of
regions
with
similar
characteris?cs,
even
if
they
do
not
belong
to
the
same
country.
The
analyses
provides
sa9sfactory
results
for
the
South
European
regions.
For
the
North
European
regions,
other
kind
of
informa9on
related
to
natural
and
cultural
assets
can
provide
more
accurate
results
in
terms
of
spa9al
impacts,
although
there
is
not
enough
comparable
informa9on
at
interna9onal
level,
at
this
moment.
Discussion
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions

23. Thank you for your attention!
João
Romão
Culture,
Nature
and
Sustainable
Tourism
Development:
a
space-­‐9me
analysis
on
European
regions
New
Tools
for
Planning
Sustainable,
Safe,
Resilient
and
Sustainable
Ci9es
Naples
March
2015