These slides accompanied a talk I gave at the AAPG-CSPG Oil Sands & Heavy Oil Symposium: A Local to Global Multidisciplinary Collaboration in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 14-16, 2014.
The slides complement the related working paper: "Perspectives on Risk: From Techno-Economic Calculations to Socio-Cultural Meanings," available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2508488
Abstract:
Recent news reports have been filled with debates concerning energy and environment risks. For instance, are nuclear power plants safe, or should they be modified in light of the Fukushima Daiichi disaster? Is hydraulic fracturing a technological breakthrough for natural gas extraction, or a threat to humans and the environment? Is the proposed Keystone XL transnational pipeline an economic boon, or an environmental bane? More fundamentally, is climate change a problem, and if so, what should be done about it? Given questions such as these, risk has become a central concern for businesses, regulators and communities. At one level, risk is about calculations and numbers. When it first emerged in the seventeenth century, risk was related to gambling; risk meant the chances of an event occurring, and the magnitude of the losses or winnings it might bring. Such understandings are evident in technical perspectives on risk, including engineering, epidemiology, toxicology and probabilistic assessments, as well as in economic perspectives on risk, including finance, actuarial and insurance approaches. But at another level, risk is about narratives and meanings. We all live in a “risk society”; risk is a way of framing debates and giving meaning to what is at stake. Such understandings are evident in perceptual perspectives on risk, including psychological, behavioral, and public opinion studies, as well as in cultural perspectives, including sociology, political science and conflict resolution approaches. In this paper, we argue that understanding energy and environment risks requires bringing together both numbers and narratives. Only by going beyond techno-economic conceptualizations of risk and considering socio-cultural issues can we explain risk within and across societies, whether at a given point in time, or dynamically over time.
Perspectives on Risk, AAPG-CSPG Conference Presentation
1. Perspec'ves
on
Risk
Joel
Gehman,
University
of
Alberta
Credit:
h9p://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/07/Risk.jpg
2.
3. Technical
perspec've:
• Risk
can
be
measured,
managed
• Located
in
systems
• F
=
probability
X
consequences
• Common
in
engineering,
epidemiology,
toxicology,
etc
Credit:
h9p://netascholars.org/probabilisPc-‐graphical-‐models-‐book-‐by-‐daphne-‐koller/
5. Economic
perspec've:
• Risk
can
be
priced,
traded
• Located
in
markets,
courtrooms
• F
=
preferences
X
value
• Common
in
game
theory,
law,
finance,
actuarial
science,
etc
Credit:
h9p://rs21testblog.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/hurricane-‐katrina.jpg
7. Perceptual
perspec've:
• Risk
can
be
amplified,
a9enuated
• Located
in
cogniPon,
comm.
• F
=
interpretaPon
X
response
• Common
in
psych,
behavioral
econ,
public
opinion
studies,
etc
Credit:
h9p://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/59/Caribbean_reef_shark.jpg
8.
9. Cultural
perspec've:
• Risk
can
refract,
diffuse
• Located
in
acPon
nets
• F
=
trajectories
X
spillovers
• Common
in
sociology,
poliPcal
science,
anthropology,
etc
Credit:
h9p://whc.unesco.org/en/disaster-‐risk-‐reducPon/
21. Lessons
from
Fukushima?
1. Risks
are
not
singular
but
consist
of
mulPple
or
plural
realiPes
à
a
parPal
strategy
is
insufficient
2. Rather
than
numbers
vs
narraPve
à
vulnerability
reducPon
vs.
risk
reducPon
3. Design
for
incompleteness
à
system
redundancies,
assessment
redundancies,
overlapping
governance,
transparency
and
traceability
22. Acknowledgements
Collaborators:
Michael
Lounsbury,
Lianne
Lefsrud,
Chang
Lu
For
sources
and
further
details,
please
see
our
working
paper:
“PerspecPves
on
Risk:
From
Techno-‐Economic
CalculaPons
to
Socio-‐Cultural
Meanings”
h9p://ssrn.com/abstract=2508488
Financial
support
provided
in
part
by
a
grant
from
the
Helmholtz-‐Alberta
IniPaPve