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Mandatory centralised clearing Creating a liquidity crisis? Nicole Grootveld, Cardano John Wilson 25 March 2011
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liquidity Impact of Margining Buy-Side users of derivatives with “one way” positions impacted the most OTC Derivatives Market / CCP Scope Buy-Side Mortgage Bank Sell-Side Dealer fixed floating fixed floating fixed Pension Holders Buy-Side Pension Fund fixed Mortgage Holders
Liquidity Impact Central Clearing For example EUR 1 billion 30 year interest rate derivative & 1% rate increase Largest Impact Pension Fund will need to Post EUR 270 million in total margin Liquidity issue to the extent existing Asset not  eligible for margining (cash vs bonds) Buy-Side Mortgage Bank CCP fixed floating fixed floating fixed Pension Holders Buy-Side Pension Fund fixed Mortgage Holders Variation Margin  EUR 150 mln Variation Margin  EUR 150 mln Initial Margin  EUR 120 mln Initial Margin  EUR 120 mln Day 1 Both counterparties must finance and post Initial Margin at moment of new trade execution
fixed floating fixed floating fixed Pension Holders fixed Mortgage Holders Liquidity Impact Central Clearing For example EUR 1 billion 30 year interest rate derivative & 1% rate decrease Largest Impact Mortgage Bank will need to finance an additional EUR 120 million in margin versus bilateral CSA margining Cost of financing this extra margin to be passed on to mortgage holders in form of higher mortgage rates Buy-Side Mortgage Bank CCP Buy-Side Pension Fund Initial Margin  EUR 120 mln Initial Margin  EUR 120 mln Variation Margin  EUR 150 mln Variation Margin  EUR 150 mln
Key concerns: Initial Margin  Total Buy-Side impact analysis on Initial Margin has not been performed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Primary concern: Variation Margin Cash Only Buy-Side participants do not have readily access to cash ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Primary concern: Variation Margin Cash Only  Pension Fund example: Liquidity has a high cost to be borne by pensioners Assumes cash return of c. 0.5% and yield on longer-dated governments bonds of c. 4.0%
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The systemic risk aspects of liquidity management are not to be underestimated. Many Buy-side participants have insufficient skills and infrastructure to manage it effectively. Open interest in OTC derivative markets not comparable to future markets in terms of magnitude of margining. Primary concern: Variation Margin Cash Only Raising cash in volatile/stressed markets
Primary concern: Variation Margin Cash Only  The counter argument…Clearing Members will provide access to liquidity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Most solutions offer liquidity under normal market conditions  and not guaranteed liquidity under stressed market conditions – buyer beware!
Non-cash VM options   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Non-cash VM options   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
A [Stock] B [Stock] C [Cash] CM1 CCP CM2 X Y Z “ Out of the Money” Counterparties “ In the Money” Counterparties CM3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(1) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (4) (4) (4) (5b) (5a) (6) (6) (6) (7) (7) (8) (8) (8) Repo Market Central  Bank Asymmetric CSA Model
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Asymmetric CSA Model
A [Stock] B [Stock] C [Cash] CM1 CCP CM2 X Y Z “ Out of the Money” Counterparties “ In the Money” Counterparties CM3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],(1) (1) (1) (2) (2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (4) (4) (4) (5) (5) (5) (6) (6) (7) (7) (7) (6) Symmetric CSA Model
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Symmetric CSA Model
Big Bang Implementation of EMIR? Not prudent given that the impact on liquidity is not known ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Management What can Buy-Side participants do to prepare themselves? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Liquidity Management What can Buy-Side participants do to limit the impact of liquidity? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions & Answers
Contact Information ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Nicole Grootveld Cardano [email_address] +31 10 243 4324 http://www.cardano.com
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cardano Disclaimer © 2011 Cardano Risk Management B.V.

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Mandatory Centralised Clearing - Creating a liquidity crisis?

  • 1. Mandatory centralised clearing Creating a liquidity crisis? Nicole Grootveld, Cardano John Wilson 25 March 2011
  • 2.
  • 3. Liquidity Impact Central Clearing For example EUR 1 billion 30 year interest rate derivative & 1% rate increase Largest Impact Pension Fund will need to Post EUR 270 million in total margin Liquidity issue to the extent existing Asset not eligible for margining (cash vs bonds) Buy-Side Mortgage Bank CCP fixed floating fixed floating fixed Pension Holders Buy-Side Pension Fund fixed Mortgage Holders Variation Margin EUR 150 mln Variation Margin EUR 150 mln Initial Margin EUR 120 mln Initial Margin EUR 120 mln Day 1 Both counterparties must finance and post Initial Margin at moment of new trade execution
  • 4. fixed floating fixed floating fixed Pension Holders fixed Mortgage Holders Liquidity Impact Central Clearing For example EUR 1 billion 30 year interest rate derivative & 1% rate decrease Largest Impact Mortgage Bank will need to finance an additional EUR 120 million in margin versus bilateral CSA margining Cost of financing this extra margin to be passed on to mortgage holders in form of higher mortgage rates Buy-Side Mortgage Bank CCP Buy-Side Pension Fund Initial Margin EUR 120 mln Initial Margin EUR 120 mln Variation Margin EUR 150 mln Variation Margin EUR 150 mln
  • 5.
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Notas del editor

  1. 10/05/11 09:08 AM
  2. 10/05/11 09:08 AM
  3. 10/05/11 09:08 AM
  4. 10/05/11 09:08 AM
  5. 10/05/11 09:08 AM Confusion abounds Proposals are focused on the simple instruments not the complex structured credit where opacity may have contributed to the problems Proposals relate to clearing not trading – private transactions in complex instruments are not covered Impact of failure of SCM is mitigated and absorbed by CCPs default protections because Mutualisation among CCPs SCMs should margin posted by defaulting SCM be insufficient Lowering exposures through multi-lateral netting Initial margin held against default of any SCM Initial margin Defaulting SCM’s contribution to CCP’s Guarantee Fund Remainder of Guarantee Fund Transparency Maintain transaction records (notional amounts and counterparties’ identities (DTCC and TriOptima share information with Regulators)