An overview of Systems Thinking, and how to apply the ideas of Complexity Theory to management of systems, with the results being called "Complexity Thinking".
This presentation is part of the Management 3.0 course created by Jurgen Appelo.
http://www.management30.com/course-introduction/
4. What happens when
you go to a bar full of
systems thinkers and
complexity researchers
5. Russell L. Ackoff
Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden
Donella H. Meadows
W. Edwards Deming
Peter M. Senge
Peter F. Drucker
Peter Checkland Gerald M. Weinberg
John H. Holland
Michael C. Jackson
John Seddon Max Boisot
14. We converse about abstractions
Abstractions are imperfect and incomplete.
15. It is a form of interaction
The activity of abstracting is basically a form
of interaction between people in which they
simplify the complexity of their own ordinary,
everyday interactions […] in an effort to make
meaning of what they are doing […].
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
16. To make sense of the world
Sense-making is the way that humans
choose between multiple possible explanations
of sensory input.
– Dave Snowden
http://kwork.org/Stars/Snowden/snowden3.html#Simplicity
17. reductionism
re·duc·tion·ism noun ri-ˈdək-shə-ˌni-zəm
– explanation of complex life-science processes and
phenomena in terms of the laws of physics and
chemistry
– a procedure or theory that reduces complex data
and phenomena to simple terms
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reductionism
18. The bar is... the building,
inventory, employees,
guests, some interaction,
etc...
reductionism
19. A problem is that people have become addicted
to the successes of reductionism.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductionism
21. Analysis in management
This systems movement […] has come to
form the foundation of today’s dominant
management discourse, so importing the
engineer’s notion of control into understanding
human activity.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
27. • Problem: Dehumanization
• Problem: Objectivization
• Problem: Alienation
• Problem: Prediction
• Problem: Attribution
This list of five problems is my abstraction,
and my attempt at sense-making!
30. See the whole system
Living systems have integrity. Their
character depends on the whole. The same is
true for organizations.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
31. Greater than the sum of the parts
The enterprise must be a genuine whole:
greater than the sum of its parts, with its output
larger than the sum of all inputs.
– Peter F. Drucker
Management
32. Synthesis, not analysis
Analysis is only one way of thinking;
synthesis is another. [...] In analysis, something
that we want to understand is first taken apart.
In synthesis, that which we want to understand
is first identified as part of one or more larger
systems.
– Russell L. Ackoff
Recreating the Corporation
35. Problem: Unscientific
new age fluffy bunnies
– Dave Snowden
http://km4meu.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/radical-ideals-and-fluffy-bunnies/
36. An unquestioned assumption
By formulating a research aim to uncover
the fundamental characteristics of systems of
various kinds, we were making the
unquestioned assumption that the world
contained such systems.
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
37. Actually, there are no systems
Where to draw a boundary around a
system depends on the questions we want to
ask.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
38. There are perspectives
A system is a way of looking at the world.
– Gerald M. Weinberg
Introduction to General Systems Thinking
39. Systems depend on context
The boundaries of systems keep shifting,
using reductionism and holism.
How much to abstract or extend depends on
what you want to understand.
40. No radical holism/reductionism
Complexity theory does not embrace the
radical holism of systems theory, the notion that
everything matters and everything has to be
taken into account.
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
42. Brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet,
countries, gardens, cities, beehives…
They’re all complex adaptive systems.
43. A team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because it
consists of parts (people) that form a system (team),
and the system shows complex behavior while it keeps
adapting to a changing environment.
44. One perspective
The properties of complex adaptive systems are:
• Aggregation
• Nonlinearity
• Flows
• Diversity
– John H. Holland
Hidden Order
45. Another perspective
There are six notions in complexity theory:
• Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)
• Strange attractors (unpredictability)
• Self-similarity (fractals)
• Self-organization (distributed control)
• The edge of chaos (emergence)
• Fitness landscapes (continuous improvement)
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
46. And it evolved like this...
– Jeffrey Goldstein
Complexity and the Nexus of Leadership
50. Complexity theory itself is complex
Papers are being posted on the Web long
before publication and there is rapid movement
of what could be called precodified or
protocodified knowledge. […] I am not saying
whether this is good or bad; I am merely
suggesting that this is one of the characteristics
affecting the evolution of complexity sciences.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
51. Complexity theory is about change
Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory.
It is not one equation. It is really a collection of
ideas about the concept of change in
complex adaptive systems […]. It talks about the
dynamics of change in a system.
– Irene Sanders
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
52. People and relationships
We found that this new science leads to a
new theory of business that places people and
relationships […] into dramatic relief.
– Roger Lewin, Birute Regine
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
53. And about hype
I think the next century will be the century
of complexity.
– Stephen Hawking
San Jose Mercury News, 23 January 2000
54. And about unification
We can justifiably think of Complexity as a
sort of umbrella science – or even the Science of
all Sciences.
– Neil Johnson
Simply Complexity
55. But who wants unification?
Scholars […] have been understandably
reluctant to see their pet subject as simply one
more example of some broader 'general
system'!
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
56. No consensus, no unification
Perhaps because the field has attracted
researchers from a wide diversity of home
disciplines, there is no consensus as to how
to define, measure, describe, or interpret
"complexity."
– Steve Maguire
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
57. Complexity theory explains why complex
problems need multiple perspectives.
It is successful in explaining its own failure at
being one theory!
58. But complexity is growing
Accelerating economic and social change in
the global economy, the consequent imperative
for ever faster innovation, the emergence of
global networks of partners, […] the
multiplication of media channels, and
burgeoning diversity in both the workplace and
marketplace.
– Steve Denning
Radical Management
59. And complicated is not complex
Analysis works in complicated cases (plic in
complicated means "fold"), but the
interweavings (plex) of the complex do not yield
to reductionist analysis or to a concentration on
details.
– Michael L. Lissack
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
60. You can try to simplify a system to make it understandable
But you cannot linearize the system to make it predictable
61. Complicated vs. Complex is itself is reductionism
(and a false dichotomy)!
Some systems can be seen as both complicated
and complex.
62. This is all great, but
how do we use all
these ideas about
complexity
63. The Scientific Method
The traditional approach...
1. Observations
2. Hypotheses
3. Predictions
4. Experiments
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
64. Houston, we have a problem
This makes the standard method of
accumulating evidence highly problematic,
because it is based on the assumption of
repetitive events. Evidence is accumulated by
observing repetitions in traditional science but
rather different notions of evidence need to be
developed for the complexity sciences.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
65. Complexity invalidates prediction!
The crucial problem which science faces is
its ability to cope with complexity.
– Peter Checkland
Systems Thinking, Systems Practice
70. model
mod·el noun ˈmä-dəl
– a usually miniature representation of something
– a description or analogy used to help visualize
something (as an atom) that cannot be directly
observed
– a system of postulates, data, and inferences
presented as a mathematical description of an
entity or state of affairs
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/model
71. We use models for two reasons
Confirmatory models: prediction & control
Exploratory models: insight & understanding
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
72. We’ll focus on exploratory models
Confirmatory models are impossible to make in
complexity theory. But we can use exploratory
models to aid in sense-making.
73. Making sense of improvement
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDCA
http://gumption.typepad.com/blog/entrepreneuria/
74. Making sense of learning
Shu
Ha
Ri
Beginner
Advanced Beginner
Competent
Proficient
Expert
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_model_of_skill_acquisition
76. There’s only 1 criterion for models
Does the model help people to make sense of
the world (insight and understanding)?
77. Of course, it requires a balance
How detailed (complicated) will you make the
model to make it useful?
The usefulness of a model depends on the
complexity of the mind and of the environment.
78. A simple model of London
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FHHhq9JdAXg/TIUalCWz_zI/AAAAAAAAAUg/C0CTOtV6iiw/s1600/cowshed-spasmap-aw8-low+res.jpg
79. A complicated model of London
http://www.bestcitymaps.com/citymaps/images/london.jpg
82. A simple model for managers
– Jurgen Appelo
Management 3.0
83. A complicated model for managers
– Dan Levinthal
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
84. Models are never perfect
All models wrong, some are useful.
– George Box
Usefulness is context-dependent. It depends
on the people and their environment.
86. metaphor
met·a·phor noun ˈme-tə-ˌfȯr also -fər
– a figure of speech in which a word or phrase
literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used
in place of another to suggest a likeness
or analogy between them
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphor
87. Metaphors in science
• Butterfy Effect
• Edge of Chaos
• Survival of the Fittest
Metaphors are fuzzy but effective models.
88. Metaphors in management
organizations as machines;•
organizations as organisms;•
organizations as brains;•
organizations as flux and transformation;•
organizations as cultures;•
organizations as political systems;•
organizations as psychic prisons;•
organizations as instruments of domination;•
organizations as carnivals• .
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
89. Organizations as machines
Machine images pervade management
jargon. We have managers who “run” a
company, much the way you would run a
machine. We have the “owners” of the
company, which is perfectly appropriate
terminology for a machine but somewhat
problematic when applied to a human
community. And of course there are leaders
who “drive change.”
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
91. Example: inventory as waste
The metaphor of inventory applied to
knowledge work can be useful, but it fails fast.
It leads people to draw conclusions about
“waste” that make no sense (to me).
92. Useful question: when do they fail?
Metaphors are the weakest of all models.
They fail fast.
Science likes mathematical models.
They fail much later.
93. A key point of complexity theory
Multiple weak models can make just as much
sense as one strong model. (And it’s certainly
better than no models.)
In the end all models fail.
94. This point makes it clear you also need other
people’s views on complexity thinking.
A single perspective is not enough!
96. mathematics
math·e·mat·ics noun ˌmath-ˈma-tiks, ˌma-thə-
– the science of numbers and their operations,
interrelations, combinations, generalizations, and
abstractions and of space configurations and their
structure, measurement, transformations, and
generalizations
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics
97. Scientific management (Taylorism)
The earliest attempt at applying mathematics to
management of organizations.
• Improving efficiency
• Reducing variation
• Increasing output
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management
99. simulation
sim·u·la·tion noun ˌsim-yə-ˈlā-shən
– the imitative representation of the functioning of
one system or process by means of the functioning
of another
– examination of a problem often not subject to
direct experimentation by means of a simulating
device
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/simulation
100. The heart of complexity theory
At the heart of complexity theory are these
formal models that utilize new techniques in
artificial intelligence to motivate artificial
agents. Behind them are some heavy-duty
mathematics and computer science.
– Steve Phelan
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
101. Problem: prediction & control
For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is to
identify leverage points for interventions that
will enable them to identify where, when and
how to initiate change and so stay in control.
However, the ability to do this in a system that is
sensitive to tiny changes is called into question.
That obviously has serious implications for the
human ability to stay ‘in control’.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
103. pattern
pat·tern noun ˈpa-tərn
– a form or model proposed for imitation
– a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other
observable characteristics of a person, group, or
institution
– a discernible coherent system based on the
intended interrelationship of component parts
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pattern
105. Archetype: Shifting the burden
Shifting the burden, dependence, and
addiction arise when a solution to a systemic
problem reduces (or disguises) the symptoms,
but does nothing to solve the underlying
problem.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
106. Archetype: Shifting problems
Solutions that merely shift problems from
one part of a system to another often go
undetected because, unlike the rug merchant,
those who “solved” the first problem are
different from those who inherit the new
problem.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
107. Archetype: The easy way out
We all find comfort applying familiar
solutions to problems, sticking to what we know
best.
– Peter M. Senge
The Fifth Discipline
108. Problem : objectivation
Consider how this systems thinking
compares with the earlier framework of
scientific management. The manager continues
to be equated with the natural scientist, the
objective observer, and just as the scientist is
concerned with a natural phenomenon, so the
manager is concerned with an organization.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
109. Problem : objectivation
Hard systems thinking is unable to deal
satisfactorily with multiple perceptions of
reality. […] Different stakeholders will have
diverse opinions about the nature of the system
they are involved with and about its proper
purposes.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
114. “Soft Complexity”
Systems theory ->
Hard systems thinking
Soft systems thinking
Complexity theory ->
Hard complexity
Soft complexity
– Steve Maguire
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
117. 1) Address complexity with complexity
The complexity of a system must be
adequate to the complexity of the environment
that it finds itself in.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
The human mind is more complex than tools
Use stories, metaphors, pictures…
118. Law of Requisite Variety
If a system is to be stable the number of
states of its control mechanism must be greater
than or equal to the number of states in the
system being controlled.
– William Ross Ashby
119. Law of Requisite Variety
Ashby's law of requisite variety is as
important to managers as Einstein's law of
relativity to physicists.
– Anthony Stafford Beer
Designing Freedom
120. The Kanban board is complicated, not complex.
http://www.xqa.com.ar/visualmanagement/tag/kanban/
122. Narratives useful for sense-making
[Complexity thinkers] argue that complex
thinking is best accomplished in a narrative
mode of thinking rather than the propositional
thinking of the traditional scientific method. […]
Both involve recursiveness, nonlinearity,
sensitive dependency on initial conditions,
indeterminacy, unpredictability and emergence.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
124. Reduction vs. Absorption
Complexity reduction entails getting to
understand the complexity and acting on it
directly, including attempting environmental
enactment. Complexity absorption entails
creating options and risk-hedging strategies.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
125. From reduction to absorption
Top-down rules reduce an organization’s
ability to deal with variety.
– John Seddon
Freedom from Command & Control
126. Insofar as the business environment is
becoming more complex, firms will need to shift
from the complexity-reducing strategies that
secured their success from the end of the
nineteenth until the end of the twentieth
century and place more stress on complexity-
absorbing ones-a shift away from bureaucracies
and toward fiefs, markets, and clans.
– Max Boisot
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Reduction vs. Absorption
127. 2) Use a diversity of models
Complexity itself is anti-methodology. It is
against "one size fits all."
– Tom Petzinger
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
Multiple weak models can make just as much
sense as one strong model.
128. Each systems approach is useful for certain
purposes and in particular types of problem
situation. A diversity of approaches, therefore,
heralds not a crisis but increased competence in
a variety of problem contexts.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
Multiple approaches
129. Different people and tools•
Different metaphors and analogies•
Different patterns and simulations•
Different methods and practices•
Multiple approaches
130. 3) Assume dependence on context
Best practice is past practice.
– Dave Snowden
The Interaction of Complexity and Management
131. Retrospective coherence
Any evidence provided will depend on the
period selected and the place in which the
events are occurring as well as other aspects of
context. It follows that any relationship anyone
identifies between a management action and an
outcome could have far more to do with a
particular time and place where the sample is
selected than anything else.
– Ralph Stacey
Complexity and Organizational Reality
132. 4) Assume subjectivity and coevolution
The observer influences the system, and the
system influences the observer.
The people form the culture, and the culture
forms the people.
135. 6) Develop models in collaboration
Does the model help people to make sense of
the world (insight and understanding)?
136. 1. Address complexity with complexity
2. Use a diversity of models
3. Assume dependence on context
4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution
5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore
6. Develop models in collaboration
138. Address1. complexity with complexity
Use2. a diversity of models
Assume3. dependence on context
Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution
Anticipate, adapt, and explore5.
Develop6. models in collaboration
Does Scrum Match ComplexityThinking?
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
139. 1. Address complexity with complexity
2. Use a diversity of models
3. Assume dependence on context
4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution
5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore
6. Develop models in collaboration
141. It’s about the shareholder
Our aim is to be the biggest or second
biggest market player, and to return maximum
value to stockholders.
– Jack Welch (General Electric)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value
142. It’s about the customer
There is only one valid definition of business
business purpose: to create a customer.
– Peter F. Drucker
Management
143. It’s about the employee
When we talk to our People, we proudly
draw a pyramid on the chalkboard and tell
them: You are at the top of the pyramid. You are
the most important person to us. You are our
most important Customer in terms of priority.
– Colleen Barrett (Southwest Airlines)
http://leaderchat.org/2011/01/10/customers-employees-and-shareholders%E2%80%94who-comes-first-in-your-organization/
144. It’s about the organization
The fundamental mission of an organization
is to survive.
– W. Warner Burke
Organization Change
145. It’s about the environment
The function of firms is to produce and
distribute wealth.
– Russell L. Ackoff
Recreating the Organization
146. It’s about all of them
Organizations must be viewed as social
systems serving three sets of purposes: their
own, those of their parts and those of the wider
systems of which they are part.
– Michael C. Jackson
Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers
147. It’s about none of them
A system has no purpose. Purpose is a
relation, not a thing to have.
– Gerald M. Weinberg
Introduction to General Systems Thinking
148. Well, it depends...
Purposes are deduced from behavior, not
from rhetoric or stated goals.
– Donella H. Meadows
Thinking in Systems
149. My view (with complexity thinking hat)
They all have a good point.
Sometimes we need a simple model.
Sometimes we need a complicated model.
150. The Shu-Ha-Ri of purpose
Shu Delight customers
Ha Delight all stakeholders
Ri Delight yourself
156. The magpie
Finds what’s valuable and uses it in its nest
The only bird capable of self-reflection
157. Address1. complexity with complexity
Use2. a diversity of models
Assume3. dependence on context
Assume4. subjectivity and coevolution
Anticipate, adapt, and explore5.
Develop6. models in collaboration
Copy and change7.
158. The peacock
Showing off a complicated but totally useless idea
Not capable of self-reflection
159. Don't take speakers too seriously.
Listen (critically) to the magpies
Be wary of the peacocks.
164. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/
This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and
I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute
all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if
you think that anything in this presentation should be changed,
added or removed, please contact me at jurgen@noop.nl.
Notas del editor
When we talk about things we always use abstractions. Incomplete representations of the world around us.
And we always have multiple options for choosing abstractions.
Engineers and scientists are particularly good at abstractions, which is why all system theories are created by “left-brainers”.Note: it is known that “left-brain” versus “right-brain” is bad science. But it is a useful metaphor.
But too much abstraction leads to problems. Such as executives only focusing on cold numbers in spreadsheets, instead of real human beings.
Or consultants trying to design organizations, without realizing that they cannot be objective observers.
Or the alienation of architects who create fantastic models that don’t make sense to people in real situations.
Or the idea that project management can predict and control the future.
Or the idea that there is always someone to blame whenever there is a problem.
Some people think we should strive for a holistic approach to organizations. We can call them the “right-brainers”.
In fact, it is impossible to be really holistic.
It is always necessary to place boundaries.And where to place them depends on the problem.
See book: page 41-45
This is the same as the Law of Requisite Variety. But this quote is easier to explain.Only the human mind is at least as complex as the complexity of the environment that software projects find themselves in.
I explain that the 360 degree evaluation is, in principle, a good idea. Because the point is to let the system (the team) generate its own feedback about its parts (team members).However, in some companies it is implemented badly. There are even HR tools that fully automate the 360-degree process, enabling people to fill out forms via email, anonymously, about each other. This is very bad for trust and respect in the organization.I explain that the last time I organized a 360 degree evaluation I did it during dinner with the whole team. It was a great and very useful experience.See book: page 242-245
I explain that complexity researcher Dave Snowden says in his keynotes that stories/narratives work better than values or vision statements. And I show with this picture that we used a lego model of metaphors, combined with photos and video, to craft the vision for the ALE network.
The “long tail” and the “strength of weak ties” are both metaphors that suggest that the sum of all small things in a social network can together be more powerful than the few strong things in the network.Likewise, several weak models can be more powerful than one strong model.In social systems we only have weak models (no strong mathematical models).Therefore, we need multiple models to make sense of the world around us.
What worked for you in the past may not work for you in the future.What works for somebody else may not work for you.
The practices you try will influence the system, but the system will also influence the practices you try.
Exploration is often forgotten on Agile teams.They only do (lots of) adaptation and (a bit of) anticipation.
Working models must be developed through their actual use by people, otherwise they won’t make sense to them.
In Scrum the whole team is required to participate in stand-ups and planning/demo meetings. Therefore Scrum wants us to use the complexity of the minds of the whole team to deal with the complexity of the environment.Scrum is just one model. For example, it specifically requires the use of timeboxes and is incompatible with iterationless models (such as Kanban). In fact, the term “ScrumBut” clearly suggests that there is a “proper” way of doing Scrum.Scrum does recognize that it is a framework and that other practices have to be filled in to make it work, but acknowledges that these practices depend on context.Scrum specifically suggests to iterate often because the demo of the product will influence the customer, and this will influence the backlog, and therefore the product.There is only focus on adaptation and anticipation in Scrum. There is no clear suggestion to explore.Scrum requires that the team changes its process model through regular retrospectives.