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Copyright	
  ©	
  2015	
  Splunk	
  Inc.	
  
BEHAVIORAL	
  INTRUSION	
  DETECTION,	
  
MACHINE	
  LEARNING	
  AND	
  THE	
  SOC	
  
	
  
Joseph	
  Zadeh	
  
@JosephZadeh	
  
FROM	
  FALSE	
  POSITIVES	
  TO	
  
ACTIONABLE	
  ANALYSIS:	
  	
  
	
  
2	
  
	
  
Agenda	
  
	
  •  IntroducRon	
  
•  Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs	
  ROI	
  
•  Lambda	
  Security:	
  Defensive	
  Architectures	
  
•  Behavioral	
  Intrusion	
  DetecRon	
  and	
  “ArRficial”	
  
Intelligence	
  	
  
•  Q&A	
  
IntroducRon	
  
3	
  
Extends	
  Security	
  Analy2cs	
  Leadership	
  by	
  Adding	
  Behavioral	
  
Analy2cs	
  to	
  Be;er	
  Detect	
  Advanced	
  and	
  Insider	
  Threats	
  
Come	
  see	
  us	
  at	
  the	
  Black	
  Hat	
  Booth	
  #347	
  
Splunk	
  Acquires	
  
Splunk	
  App	
  for	
  
Enterprise	
  Security	
  
Machine	
  Learning	
  +	
   +	
  
ADVANCED	
  THREATS	
  
	
  
INSIDER	
  THREATS	
  
	
  
5	
  
Research	
  Background	
  
•  Security	
  Research	
  
–  First	
  security	
  talk	
  ever	
  a^ended	
  @	
  Decfon	
  8:	
  Jon	
  Erickson	
  
“Number	
  Theory,	
  Complexity	
  Theory,	
  Cryptography,	
  and	
  
Quantum	
  CompuRng”	
  	
  
ê  I	
  am	
  sRll	
  trying	
  to	
  understand	
  that	
  talk…	
  
–  Late	
  90’s:	
  Traffic	
  baselines	
  and	
  Layer	
  2	
  behavioral	
  profiling	
  
using	
  MRTG	
  and	
  first	
  generaRon	
  NMS	
  	
  
–  Recently:	
  	
  Consultant	
  on	
  cybersecurity	
  analyRcs	
  projects	
  the	
  
last	
  few	
  years	
  standing	
  up	
  custom	
  soluRons	
  
•  Related	
  Research:	
  
–  Fractal	
  random	
  walks:	
  predicRng	
  Rme	
  series	
  
ê  Human	
  Behavior	
  (stocks),	
  Physical	
  Processes	
  (heat,	
  magneRsm)	
  
ê  Molecular	
  kineRcs	
  (Brownian	
  moRon,	
  quantum	
  mechanics)	
  
ê  StochasRc	
  Fast	
  Dynamo,	
  StochasRc	
  Anderson	
  EquaRon	
  
ê  Time	
  as	
  a	
  random	
  process	
  
6	
  
ML:	
  PredicRng	
  Time	
  Series	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
7	
  
A.I.	
  and	
  the	
  “Big”	
  Picture	
  	
  
Can	
  Strong	
  AI	
  help	
  predict..	
  
–  The	
  dynamo	
  effect?	
  
–  Pole	
  shins?	
  
–  ExRncRon	
  events?	
  
–  Military	
  escalaRons?	
  
–  Cybersecurity	
  catastrophes?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
8	
  
Cybersecurity	
  Defense:	
  Failings	
  and	
  MoRvaRons	
  
Mudge,	
  “How	
  a	
  Hacker	
  Has	
  Helped	
  Influence	
  the	
  Government	
  -­‐	
  and	
  Vice	
  Versa”	
  Blackhat	
  2011	
  
	
  
9,000	
  Malware	
  Samples	
  Analyzed	
  	
  
–  125	
  LOC	
  for	
  Average	
  Malware	
  Sample	
  
–  Stuxnet	
  =	
  15,000	
  LOC	
  (120x	
  average	
  malware	
  sample	
  LOC)	
  
–  10,000,000	
  =	
  Average	
  LOC	
  for	
  modern	
  firewall/security	
  stack	
  
Key	
  Takeaway:	
  	
  For	
  one	
  single	
  offensive	
  LOC	
  defenders	
  write	
  100,000	
  LOC	
  
–  120:1	
  Stuxnet	
  to	
  average	
  malware	
  
–  500:1	
  Simple	
  text	
  editor	
  to	
  average	
  malware	
  
–  2,000:1	
  Malware	
  suite	
  to	
  average	
  malware	
  
–  100,000:1	
  Defensive	
  tool	
  to	
  average	
  malware	
  
–  1,000,000:1	
  Target	
  operaRng	
  system	
  to	
  average	
  malware	
  
Bruce	
  Schneier,	
  “The	
  State	
  of	
  Incident	
  Response	
  by	
  Bruce	
  Schneier”	
  Blackhat	
  2014	
  
–  G.	
  Akerlof,	
  “The	
  Market	
  for	
  Lemons:	
  Quality	
  Uncertainty	
  and	
  the	
  Market	
  Mechanism”	
  	
  
	
   	
  Key	
  Takeaway:	
  Security	
  is	
  a	
  lemons	
  market!	
  
–  Prospect	
  theory	
  “As	
  a	
  species	
  we	
  are	
  risk	
  adverse	
  when	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  gains	
  and	
  risk	
  taking	
  when	
  it	
  comes	
  to	
  
losses”	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  Key	
  Takeaway:	
  We	
  don’t	
  buy	
  security	
  products	
  un2l	
  it	
  is	
  too	
  late!	
  
9	
  
A	
  Philosophy	
  of	
  Defense	
  
"Once	
  you	
  understand	
  The	
  Way	
  broadly,	
  you	
  can	
  see	
  it	
  in	
  all	
  things."	
  
	
  ―	
  Miyamoto	
  Musashi,	
  Book	
  of	
  Five	
  Ring	
  1643	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
10	
  
A	
  Philosophy	
  of	
  Defense	
  
"Once	
  you	
  understand	
  The	
  Way	
  broadly,	
  you	
  can	
  see	
  it	
  in	
  all	
  things."	
  
	
  ―	
  Miyamoto	
  Musashi,	
  Book	
  of	
  Five	
  Ring	
  1643	
  
	
  
	
   •  Musashi	
  was	
  undefeated	
  samurai	
  (60	
  duels)	
  
•  Throughout	
  the	
  book,	
  Musashi	
  implies	
  that	
  the	
  
way	
  of	
  the	
  Warrior,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  the	
  meaning	
  of	
  a	
  
"True	
  strategist"	
  is	
  that	
  of	
  somebody	
  who	
  has	
  
made	
  mastery	
  of	
  many	
  art	
  forms	
  away	
  from	
  that	
  
of	
  the	
  sword…	
  
•  Such	
  a	
  philosophy	
  is	
  fractal	
  –	
  it	
  has	
  similar	
  
properRes	
  on	
  many	
  scales	
  
11	
  
Fractal	
  Defense	
  
"Once	
  you	
  understand	
  The	
  Way	
  broadly,	
  you	
  can	
  see	
  it	
  in	
  all	
  things."	
  
	
  ―	
  Miyamoto	
  Musashi,	
  Book	
  of	
  Five	
  Ring	
  1643	
  
	
  
	
   •  A	
  fractal	
  is	
  a	
  natural	
  phenomenon	
  or	
  a	
  
mathemaRcal	
  set	
  that	
  exhibits	
  a	
  repeaRng	
  
pa^ern	
  that	
  displays	
  at	
  every	
  scale.	
  
•  Security	
  is	
  a	
  combinaRon	
  of	
  detecRon,	
  
protecRon	
  and	
  response	
  
•  Fractal	
  defense:	
  a	
  philosophy	
  for	
  scaling	
  
detecRon,	
  protecRon	
  and	
  response	
  up	
  and	
  
down	
  the	
  IT	
  ecosystem	
  
12	
  
Fractal	
  Defense:	
  Example	
  
From	
  our	
  white	
  paper	
  “Defense	
  at	
  scale:	
  Building	
  a	
  Central	
  Nervous	
  
System	
  for	
  the	
  SOC”	
  
	
  
–  Leverage	
  expressive	
  ways	
  to	
  target	
  TTP’s	
  (tacRcs,	
  techniques	
  and	
  
procedures)	
  that	
  are	
  reusable	
  and	
  scalable	
  across	
  many	
  use	
  cases/
behaviors	
  
–  Can	
  incorporate	
  classical	
  signatures	
  into	
  a	
  probabilisRc	
  scoring	
  
mechanism	
  
	
  
13	
  
Fractal	
  Defense:	
  Example	
  
From	
  our	
  white	
  paper	
  “Defense	
  at	
  scale:	
  Building	
  a	
  Central	
  Nervous	
  
System	
  for	
  the	
  SOC”	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
14	
  
Fractal	
  Defense:	
  Example	
  
From	
  our	
  white	
  paper	
  “Defense	
  at	
  scale:	
  Building	
  a	
  Central	
  Nervous	
  
System	
  for	
  the	
  SOC”	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
F1	
  =	
  Snort	
  IOC	
  "MALWARE-­‐CNC	
  Win.Trojan.Zeus	
  
encrypted	
  POST	
  Data	
  exfiltra2on”	
  
F5	
  =	
  	
  Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Large	
  number	
  of	
  POST’s	
  and	
  Null	
  web	
  referrals	
  
F3	
  =	
  	
  Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Periodic	
  traffic	
  over	
  SSL	
  without	
  valid	
  cer2ficate	
  
F4	
  =	
  Behavioral	
  
IOC:	
  New	
  
domain	
  
registered	
  with	
  
correlated	
  
whois	
  data	
  
Overall	
  Social	
  Cluster	
  Score	
  =	
  
g(F1,	
  F2,	
  F3,	
  F4,	
  F5)	
  
Central	
  Nervous	
  System	
  Approach	
  
16	
  
Sound	
  Bytes	
  
–  Fractal	
  Defense:	
  Reuse	
  logic	
  (and	
  code)	
  across	
  different	
  
security	
  use	
  cases.	
  	
  Make	
  behavior	
  based	
  IOC’s	
  map	
  to	
  
adversary	
  tacRcs,	
  techniques	
  and	
  procedures	
  for	
  be^er	
  
scalability.	
  
–  Cybersecurity	
  Analy2cs	
  ROI:	
  	
  Make	
  security	
  requirements	
  
funcRonal	
  by	
  sexng	
  realisRc	
  benchmarks	
  based	
  on	
  your	
  
own	
  data	
  
	
  
–  Lambda	
  Architecture:	
  	
  a	
  generic	
  problem	
  solving	
  system	
  
built	
  on	
  immutability	
  and	
  hybrid	
  batch/real-­‐Rme	
  
workflows	
  
	
  
Cybersecurity	
  
AnalyRcs	
  ROI	
  
17	
  
18	
  
Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs	
  
•  MoRvaRon	
  	
  
–  Number	
  one	
  mistake	
  I	
  see	
  researchers	
  making	
  is	
  modeling	
  the	
  
“ConRnuum	
  of	
  behaviors”	
  vs.	
  modeling	
  a	
  discrete	
  security	
  use	
  case	
  
–  Help	
  rank	
  order	
  use	
  cases	
  for	
  management/researchers	
  without	
  security	
  
background	
  (ranking	
  should	
  coincide	
  with	
  security	
  expert	
  intuiRon)	
  
•  Possible	
  a^ack	
  behaviors	
  are	
  infinite!	
  
–  Intractable	
  dimensionality	
  
–  “Project	
  the	
  problem	
  down	
  to	
  finitely	
  many	
  sub	
  problems”	
  
	
  
•  Anomaly	
  DetecRon	
  !=	
  AcRonable	
  Intelligence	
  
	
  
19	
  
Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs	
  Roadmap	
  
•  Step	
  1:	
  	
  Make	
  a	
  grab	
  bag	
  of	
  your	
  favorite	
  use	
  cases/gaps	
  of	
  the	
  threat	
  surface	
  
–  Model	
  primiRves:	
  acRonable	
  units	
  or	
  single	
  behaviors	
  
•  Step	
  2:	
  	
  Determine	
  exisRng	
  coverage	
  and	
  cost	
  of	
  impact	
  per	
  use	
  case	
  
(APPROXIMATE!	
  Unless	
  you	
  are	
  have	
  been	
  logging	
  costs	
  of	
  security	
  events	
  
internally	
  similar	
  to	
  MS…)	
  	
  
•  Step	
  3:	
  	
  Build	
  ROI	
  Graph	
  
–  What	
  is	
  your	
  formula	
  for	
  ROI?	
  
•  Step	
  4:	
  	
  Rank	
  Order	
  
–  Rank	
  by	
  determining	
  which	
  ordering	
  provides	
  addiRonal	
  value	
  to	
  minimizing	
  risk	
  
–  Our	
  example	
  uses	
  the	
  added	
  structure	
  of	
  LAN	
  and	
  WAN	
  but	
  you	
  can	
  complicate	
  
things	
  further	
  by	
  trying	
  to	
  incorporate	
  adversary	
  capabiliRes,	
  point	
  soluRon	
  
metrics,	
  etc…	
  
20	
  
Enumerate	
  Threat	
  Surface	
  
§  PtH/PtT	
  
§  Time	
  of	
  Day	
  Model	
  
§  Lateral	
  Reconnaissance	
  
§  Pop	
  @	
  Risk	
  
§  Passive	
  DNS	
  
§  Data	
  Store	
  Exfiltra2on	
  
§  Two	
  Factor	
  A;ack	
  
§  Exploit	
  Kits	
  
§  Crowd	
  sourced	
  Executable	
  Classifica2on	
  
§  MITM	
  
§  Telecommuter	
  Ground	
  Speed/
Triangula2on	
  
§  Data	
  mart	
  reconnaissance/mapping	
  
§  VIP	
  Asset	
  Profiling	
  
§  User	
  to	
  Group	
  Behavior	
  Metrics	
  
§  User	
  Access	
  Pa;ern	
  Models	
  	
  
§  Shadow	
  IT	
  misconfigura2on	
  and	
  gap	
  
profiling	
  
§  Beachhead/DMZ	
  a;ack	
  graph	
  modeling	
  
Use	
  Cases:	
  	
  Insider/LAN	
  Threats	
  
21	
  
Enumerate	
  Threat	
  Surface	
  
§  Web	
  Referral	
  Graph	
  
§  Time	
  of	
  Day	
  Model	
  
§  Heartbeat	
  Beacon	
  Detec2on	
  
§  SSL	
  Side	
  Channel	
  Analysis	
  
§  Watering	
  Hole	
  Analy2c	
  
§  Passive	
  DNS	
  AI	
  
§  Predic2ve	
  Blacklis2ng	
  
§  URL	
  Rela2ve	
  Path	
  Tokens	
  
§  Edit	
  Distance	
  Classifica2on	
  
§  Exploit	
  Kits	
  Analy2cs	
  
§  Pseudo	
  Random	
  Domain	
  Detec2on	
  
§  Executable	
  Graph	
  Classifier	
  
§  DNS	
  Tunneling	
  
	
  
Use	
  Cases:	
  	
  External/WAN	
  Threats	
  
22	
  
Enumerate	
  Threat	
  Surface	
  
§  Embedded	
  Systems	
  Behavioral	
  
Profiles	
  
§  BYOD	
  Popula2on	
  Analysis	
  
§  Passive	
  mobile	
  applica2on	
  classifier	
  
§  Mobile	
  app	
  store	
  profiling	
  
§  Common	
  environment	
  baselines	
  for	
  
mobile	
  users	
  
§  Mobile	
  Beacon	
  Detec2on	
  
§  SSL	
  Side	
  Channel	
  Analysis	
  
§  Creden2al	
  compromise	
  
§  Rogue	
  Device	
  Detec2on	
  
§  HVAC	
  Controller	
  A;acks	
  (BacNet)	
  
Use	
  Cases:	
  	
  IoT	
  and	
  Shadow	
  IT	
  
23	
  
Security	
  AnalyRcs	
  ROI	
  
•  What	
  is	
  the	
  intrinsic	
  value	
  of	
  each	
  model	
  we	
  build?	
  
–  False	
  PosiRve/True	
  PosiRve	
  raRos,	
  AUC,	
  etc.	
  
–  Cost	
  of	
  ValidaRng	
  the	
  Model	
  
–  What	
  is	
  the	
  risk	
  to	
  the	
  organizaRon	
  for	
  missing	
  the	
  threat?	
  
–  Find	
  Net	
  New	
  Threats!	
  
•  How	
  to	
  prioriRze	
  what	
  analyRc	
  models	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  
–  Dimensions:	
  	
  Impact	
  Risk,	
  Cost	
  of	
  ValidaRon,	
  Cost	
  of	
  Investment,	
  Cost	
  of	
  
Maintenance,	
  Adversary	
  Model	
  
	
  
Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs:	
  ROIv1	
  
Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs:	
  ROIv1	
  
Cybersecurity	
  AnalyRcs:	
  ROIv1	
  
27	
  
Adversary	
  CapabiliRes	
  and	
  the	
  Threat	
  Surface	
  
•  A^acker	
  capability	
  vs.	
  Security	
  
Capability	
  is	
  an	
  important	
  
dimension	
  to	
  consider	
  when	
  
prioriRzing	
  new	
  soluRons/
analyRcs	
  
	
  
•  Try	
  to	
  handle	
  the	
  low	
  hanging	
  
fruit	
  to	
  more	
  complex	
  adversary	
  
behavior	
  by	
  road	
  mapping	
  
custom	
  analyRcs	
  based	
  on	
  gaps	
  
in	
  exisRng	
  and	
  future	
  technology	
  
soluRons	
  
•  It	
  is	
  a	
  mistake	
  to	
  model	
  the	
  most	
  
complex	
  adversaries	
  first	
  
	
  
28	
  
Nextgen	
  Benchmarks	
  
•  DARPA,	
  Predict.org	
  spearheading	
  the	
  collecRon	
  and	
  annotaRon	
  of	
  
complex	
  data	
  sets	
  for	
  security	
  research	
  
–  Skaion	
  2006	
  DARPA	
  Dataset	
  	
  
–  Contagio	
  Malware	
  Dump	
  
–  CTU	
  University:	
  CTU-­‐13	
  Dataset.	
  A	
  Labeled	
  Dataset	
  with	
  Botnet,	
  Normal	
  
and	
  Background	
  traffic	
  
•  Evidence	
  CollecRon	
  and	
  the	
  SOC	
  
–  Most	
  important	
  workflow	
  that	
  is	
  missing	
  from	
  large	
  scale	
  Intel/telemetry	
  
sharing	
  across	
  organizaRons.,	
  	
  
•  Public	
  Repos	
  /	
  OSINT	
  
	
  
29	
  
FuncRonal	
  Requirements!	
  
•  Real	
  problem	
  in	
  security	
  is	
  requirements	
  are	
  non-­‐funcRonal	
  
•  Benchmark	
  next	
  gen	
  product	
  by	
  isolaRng	
  the	
  sub	
  problems	
  and	
  
holding	
  specific	
  metrics	
  accountable	
  to	
  real	
  world	
  data	
  
•  How	
  do	
  you	
  rank	
  order	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  a	
  cybersecurity	
  analyRc?	
  
Defensive	
  
Architectures	
  	
  
30	
  
31	
  
Why	
  Build	
  A	
  Defensive	
  Tool?	
  
•  Incident	
  Response	
  Is	
  Hard	
  Work!	
  What	
  
can	
  we	
  automate?	
  	
  	
  
A	
  security	
  analyst	
  is	
  an	
  oracle	
  whose	
  
input	
  is	
  evidence	
  and	
  whose	
  output	
  is	
  
True	
  Posi2ve,	
  False	
  Posi2ve,	
  True	
  
Nega2ve	
  or	
  False	
  Nega2ve	
  
	
  
	
  
–  The	
  list	
  of	
  possible	
  quesRons	
  is	
  large	
  but	
  
typically	
  the	
  flow	
  is	
  a	
  type	
  of	
  decision	
  tree	
  for	
  
example	
  
	
  
32	
  
Why	
  Build	
  A	
  Defensive	
  Tool?	
  
Security	
  Oracle	
  Workflow	
  
Example	
  1:	
  	
  
Evidence	
  =>	
  Periodic	
  CommunicaRon	
  
=>	
  LAN	
  to	
  WAN	
  Data	
  =>WAN	
  URL	
  has	
  
Bad	
  ReputaRon	
  =>	
  Correlate	
  with	
  VT	
  
=>	
  True	
  PosiRve	
  
	
  
Example	
  2:	
  
	
  Evidence	
  =>	
  PotenRal	
  C2	
  Domain	
  =>	
  
LAN	
  to	
  WAN	
  Data	
  =>	
  WAN	
  URL	
  is	
  new	
  
Google	
  IP	
  =>	
  False	
  PosiRve	
  
33	
  
Lambda	
  Security	
  
•  Lambda	
  Architecture:	
  batch	
  +	
  real	
  Rme	
  compuRng	
  paradigm	
  
•  Minimizes	
  the	
  complexity	
  in	
  historical	
  computaRons	
  overcoming	
  
bo^lenecks	
  SOC	
  has	
  experienced	
  operaRng	
  first	
  gen	
  SIEMs	
  
•  Data	
  model	
  that	
  is	
  append-­‐only,	
  distributed	
  and	
  immutable	
  is	
  opRmized	
  
for	
  security	
  centric	
  workflows	
  and	
  analyst	
  queries	
  
	
  
34	
  
Lambda	
  Security	
  
•  Architecture	
  is	
  described	
  by	
  three	
  simple	
  equaRons:	
  
batch	
  view	
  =	
  func2on(all	
  data)	
  
real2me	
  view	
  =	
  func2on(real2me	
  view,	
  new	
  data)	
  	
  
query	
  =	
  func2on(batch	
  view,	
  real2me	
  view)	
  	
  
	
  
35	
  
Lambda	
  Security	
  
•  Lambda	
  architecture	
  provides	
  a	
  design	
  paradigm	
  for	
  a	
  
scalable	
  central	
  nervous	
  system	
  for	
  the	
  SOC	
  whose	
  
components	
  include	
  
–  Machine	
  learning	
  based	
  ETL(Extract/Transform/Load)	
  	
  
–  Distributed	
  crawlers	
  	
  
–  Automated	
  idenRty/session	
  resoluRon	
  and	
  fingerprinRng	
  	
  
–  Formal	
  evidence	
  collecRon	
  protocol	
  for	
  automated	
  labeling	
  of	
  
incident	
  response	
  data	
  	
  
–  AnalyRcs	
  Metrics	
  and	
  establishing	
  benchmarks	
  for	
  
heterogeneous	
  data	
  	
  
36	
  
When	
  is	
  a	
  model	
  ready?	
  	
  	
  
37	
  
Lambda	
  Firewalls?!	
  
Manage	
  the	
  paths	
  accordingly	
  start	
  building	
  lambda	
  
workflows	
  into	
  Everything!!!	
  
•  Lambda	
  firewall	
  
–  StaRsRcal	
  whitelist	
  computaRon	
  aspect	
  (fuzzy	
  ACL’s)	
  	
  	
  
–  Path	
  for	
  signatures	
  and	
  sequenRal	
  behaviors	
  that	
  is	
  more	
  expressive	
  than	
  
PCRE	
  
•  Central	
  nervous	
  system	
  approach	
  to	
  blending	
  signals	
  
–  Defense	
  should	
  scale	
  up	
  and	
  down	
  the	
  size	
  of	
  organizaRon:	
  a	
  properly	
  
engineered	
  central	
  nervous	
  system	
  should	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  protect	
  SMB	
  market	
  
as	
  well	
  as	
  large	
  scale	
  deployments	
  
•  The	
  Complexity	
  Class	
  P-­‐Complete	
  and	
  NC	
  
–  NC	
  =>	
  parallelizable	
  
•  Some	
  problems	
  don’t	
  parallelize	
  well!!	
  
–  P-­‐Complete	
  =>	
  Inherently	
  SequenRal	
  
–  Any	
  problem	
  where	
  you	
  have	
  to	
  maintain	
  state	
  across	
  nodes:	
  Circuit	
  Value	
  
Problem,	
  Linear	
  programming	
  	
  
–  Streaming	
  models	
  are	
  usually	
  harder	
  to	
  maintain	
  than	
  batch	
  models	
  
38	
  
Complexity	
  Class	
  P-­‐Complete	
  and	
  NC	
  
Behavioral	
  Intrusion	
  
DetecRon:	
  Next	
  Gen	
  
Signatures	
  
39	
  
40	
  
	
  
Cybersecurity	
  and	
  Graph	
  Mining	
  
	
  •  Dynamic	
  Temporal	
  Graphs	
  
–  Social	
  Network	
  of	
  CommunicaRons	
  forms	
  a	
  dynamic	
  graph	
  that	
  evolves	
  over	
  
Rme	
  	
  
–  Given	
  a	
  graph	
  structure	
  we	
  can	
  leverage	
  state	
  of	
  the	
  art	
  graph	
  mining	
  
techniques	
  to	
  detect	
  anomalous	
  graph	
  pa^erns	
  
ê  Anomalous	
  Clicks	
  
ê  Rare	
  Sub-­‐Structures	
  	
  
ê  Rare	
  Paths	
  
•  Anomalies	
  in	
  graphs	
  can	
  be	
  easy	
  to	
  idenRfy	
  algorithmically	
  
–  PageRank	
  
–  Graph	
  Cut/ParRRoning	
  
–  Random	
  Walk	
  Driven	
  Label	
  PropagaRon	
  
Command	
  and	
  Control	
  (C2)	
  
traffic	
  has	
  been	
  established	
  
between	
  compromised	
  
hosts	
  inside	
  the	
  corporate	
  
network	
  and	
  C2	
  servers	
  	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
C2	
  Infrastructure	
  changes	
  locaRons	
  of	
  command	
  
and	
  control	
  server	
  new	
  communicaRon	
  path	
  is	
  
established	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
 
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
C2	
  Infrastructure	
  changes	
  locaRons	
  of	
  command	
  
and	
  control	
  server	
  new	
  communicaRon	
  path	
  is	
  
established	
  
 
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
At	
  each	
  Rme	
  step	
  (typically	
  a	
  
day	
  or	
  two)	
  the	
  C2	
  
Infrastructure	
  changes	
  
locaRons	
  of	
  command	
  and	
  
control	
  via	
  this	
  “Fluxing”	
  
behavior.	
  A	
  subset	
  of	
  these	
  
type	
  of	
  graph	
  pa^erns	
  is	
  
known	
  as	
  “Fast	
  Fluxing”	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
 
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Mobile	
  C2	
  
	
  
The	
  constant	
  mobility	
  of	
  
command	
  and	
  control	
  
infrastructure	
  will	
  
conRnue	
  this	
  IP/Domain	
  
fluxing	
  movement	
  unRl	
  
detected	
  
Command	
  and	
  Control	
  (C2)	
  
traffic	
  has	
  been	
  established	
  
between	
  “Beachhead”	
  and	
  
command	
  and	
  control	
  
operator	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
Heartbeat	
  traffic	
  
signals	
  C2	
  operator	
  
that	
  infected	
  asset	
  
is	
  up	
  and	
  ready	
  for	
  
instrucRons	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
Obfuscated	
  instrucRons	
  
get	
  returned	
  through	
  an	
  
Upstream	
  conversaRon	
  
embedded	
  in	
  PHP,	
  .js,	
  
Flash,	
  etc..	
  
	
  
Commands	
  obfuscated	
  in	
  
this	
  way	
  can	
  be	
  through	
  
of	
  as	
  a	
  hidden	
  
“Downstream	
  Beacon”	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
Embedded	
  commands	
  can	
  
signal	
  infected	
  asset	
  to	
  
enumerate	
  local	
  informaRon	
  on	
  
the	
  machine,	
  a^ach	
  to	
  open	
  
network	
  shares	
  and	
  perform	
  
lateral	
  reconnaissance	
  and	
  
privilege	
  escalaRon	
  throughout	
  
the	
  compromised	
  network	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
Aner	
  targeted	
  lateral	
  movement	
  and	
  privilege	
  
enumeraRon	
  all	
  cases	
  of	
  targeted	
  a^acks	
  
eventually	
  involve	
  the	
  compromise	
  of	
  the	
  directory	
  
services	
  roots	
  servers	
  (Usually	
  AD	
  Forest	
  Roots)	
  
and	
  exfiltraRon	
  of	
  key	
  personnel	
  informaRon	
  along	
  
with	
  any	
  	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
ExfiltraRon	
  and	
  other	
  
pa^erns	
  have	
  
different	
  network	
  
components	
  but	
  are	
  
usually	
  constrained	
  by	
  
the	
  pictures	
  they	
  
make	
  as	
  paths	
  in	
  a	
  
graph…	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
BFS/DFS	
  +	
  Other	
  classic	
  graph	
  search	
  algorithms	
  are	
  a	
  great	
  
examples	
  of	
  algorithms	
  useful	
  in	
  detecRng	
  this	
  graph	
  signature	
  
Edge	
  weights	
  can	
  be	
  encoded	
  with	
  key	
  security	
  features	
  to	
  
increase	
  overall	
  model	
  accuracy	
  regardless	
  of	
  the	
  underlying	
  
algorithms	
  
	
  
Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Perimeter	
  Pivot	
  
	
  
Fractal	
  Defense:	
  	
  Batch	
  +	
  Real	
  Time	
  
Batch	
  +	
  Real	
  Time:	
  IdenRty	
  ResoluRon	
  
High	
  Risk	
  
CommunicaRon	
  
Cluster	
  
Batch	
  +	
  Real	
  Time:	
  Updates	
  
F1	
  =	
  Snort	
  IOC	
  "MALWARE-­‐CNC	
  Win.Trojan.Zeus	
  
encrypted	
  POST	
  Data	
  exfiltra2on”	
  
F5	
  =	
  	
  Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Large	
  number	
  of	
  POST’s	
  and	
  Null	
  web	
  referrals	
  
F3	
  =	
  	
  Behavioral	
  IOC:	
  Periodic	
  traffic	
  over	
  SSL	
  without	
  valid	
  cer2ficate	
  
F4	
  =	
  Behavioral	
  
IOC:	
  New	
  
domain	
  
registered	
  with	
  
correlated	
  
whois	
  data	
  
Overall	
  Social	
  Cluster	
  Score	
  =	
  
g(F1,	
  F2,	
  F3,	
  F4,	
  F5)	
  
Central	
  Nervous	
  System	
  Approach	
  
ArRficial	
  Intelligence	
  
and	
  Defense	
  	
  
58	
  
59	
  
	
  
Machine	
  Learning	
  and	
  Cybersecurity	
  
	
  •  Specific	
  Challenges	
  
–  No	
  Ground	
  Truth:	
  Machine	
  Learning	
  works	
  best	
  in	
  the	
  case	
  of	
  large	
  amount	
  of	
  labeled	
  
examples	
  	
  
–  Concept/Adversarial	
  Drin:	
  Labels	
  change	
  over	
  Rme	
  
•  Lack	
  of	
  Labeled	
  Data	
  =>	
  “No	
  Free	
  Lunch”	
  
–  Wolpert,	
  D.H.,	
  Macready,	
  W.G.	
  (1997),	
  "No	
  Free	
  Lunch	
  Theorems	
  for	
  OpRmizaRon",	
  
IEEE	
  Transac*ons	
  on	
  Evolu*onary	
  Computa*on	
  1,	
  67.	
  
–  	
  Wolpert,	
  David	
  (1996),	
  "
The	
  Lack	
  of	
  A	
  Priori	
  DisRncRons	
  between	
  Learning	
  Algorithms",	
  Neural	
  Computa*on,	
  
pp.	
  1341-­‐1390.	
  
60	
  
	
  
Limits	
  of	
  Automated	
  Intrusion	
  DetecRon	
  
	
  •  Travis	
  Goodspeed:	
  “Packets	
  in	
  Packets”	
  
–  Paper	
  showing	
  any	
  communicaRon	
  medium	
  we	
  can	
  embed	
  a	
  covert	
  
language	
  to	
  avoid	
  eavesdropping	
  in	
  open	
  channels	
  
•  Can	
  we	
  programmaRcally	
  answer	
  the	
  quesRons:	
  “Does	
  a	
  
communicaRon	
  contain	
  steganography?”	
  
–  Equivalent	
  to	
  checking	
  if	
  a	
  computer	
  program	
  will	
  halt?	
  
•  Polymorphic	
  Malware	
  =>	
  NFL	
  
61	
  
A.I.	
  and	
  Meta-­‐Theorems	
  
•  Is	
  intelligence	
  achievable	
  in	
  sonware	
  (Strong	
  AI)?	
  	
  
–  Sco^	
  Aronson:	
  Unlikely	
  sonware/hardware	
  combinaRons	
  are	
  compeRng	
  against	
  
3	
  Billion	
  years	
  of	
  evoluRon	
  
•  Keep	
  a	
  catalogue	
  of	
  deep	
  results	
  and	
  curiosiRes	
  
–  Gödel's	
  Incompleteness	
  
–  Church-­‐Turning	
  
–  Blum's	
  Speedup	
  Theorem	
  
–  No	
  free	
  Lunch	
  
–  One	
  Learning	
  Algorithm	
  Hypothesis	
  
–  Grover's/Shor’s	
  Algorithms	
  
•  Track	
  Cuxng	
  Edge	
  ML	
  
–  	
  Paper:	
  “Building	
  high-­‐level	
  features	
  using	
  large	
  scale	
  unsupervised	
  learning”	
  
ê  Andrew	
  Ng	
  and	
  Jeff	
  Dean	
  et	
  al.	
  (2012)	
  ICML	
  
62	
  
HalRng	
  Problem	
  
•  The	
  problem	
  is	
  to	
  determine,	
  given	
  a	
  program	
  and	
  an	
  input	
  to	
  the	
  program,	
  
whether	
  the	
  program	
  will	
  eventually	
  halt	
  when	
  run	
  with	
  that	
  input	
  
•  The	
  halRng	
  problem	
  is	
  famous	
  because	
  it	
  was	
  one	
  of	
  the	
  first	
  problems	
  
proven	
  algorithmically	
  undecidable.	
  	
  This	
  means	
  there	
  is	
  no	
  algorithm	
  which	
  
can	
  be	
  applied	
  to	
  any	
  arbitrary	
  program	
  and	
  input	
  to	
  decide	
  whether	
  the	
  
program	
  stops	
  when	
  run	
  with	
  that	
  input.	
  
63	
  
	
  
TheoreRcal	
  Backbone	
  
	
  –  Classical	
  ComputaRon	
  
ê  Logical	
  Consistency	
  of	
  Computer	
  Languages	
  (Church-­‐Turing)	
  
ê  Physical	
  RealizaRon	
  of	
  Turning	
  Machine	
  (Church	
  turning	
  +	
  Von	
  Neumann)	
  
ê  FloaRng	
  point	
  representaRon	
  with	
  controllable	
  error	
  propagaRon	
  
	
  
–  Weak/Strong	
  AI	
  
ê  HalRng	
  problem	
  and	
  No	
  Free	
  Lunch	
  theorems	
  =>	
  building	
  intelligent	
  sonware	
  
is	
  “hard”	
  
ê  Current	
  machine	
  learning	
  methods	
  are	
  a	
  type	
  of	
  weak	
  AI	
  
	
  
–  Distributed	
  ComputaRon	
  
ê  Complexity	
  classes	
  P-­‐Complete,	
  NC	
  
ê  CAP	
  Theorem	
  
ê  Actor	
  Models	
  
ê  Batch	
  +	
  Real-­‐Time	
  :=	
  Lambda	
  Architecture	
  
64	
  
Data	
  Science	
  in	
  Cybersecurity	
  
•  What	
  is	
  a	
  behavior	
  mathemaRcally?	
  
–  Fraud	
  in	
  Cybersecurity	
  manifests	
  itself	
  in	
  infinitely	
  many	
  possibiliRes	
  	
  
•  Automated	
  idenRficaRon	
  of	
  fraud	
  in	
  IT	
  is	
  in	
  some	
  sense	
  
equivalent	
  to	
  trying	
  solve	
  the	
  halRng	
  problem	
  on	
  a	
  Turning	
  
Machine	
  
–  ComputaRonally	
  it	
  is	
  impossible	
  to	
  “enumerate”	
  all	
  possible	
  behaviors	
  
	
  
65	
  
Blackhat	
  Sound	
  Bytes	
  
–  Fractal	
  Defense:	
  Reuse	
  logic	
  (and	
  code)	
  across	
  different	
  
security	
  use	
  cases.	
  	
  Make	
  behavior	
  based	
  IOC’s	
  map	
  to	
  
adversary	
  TacRcs,	
  Techniques	
  and	
  Procedures	
  for	
  be^er	
  
scalability.	
  
–  Cybersecurity	
  Analy2cs	
  ROI:	
  	
  Make	
  requirements	
  
funcRonal	
  by	
  sexng	
  realisRc	
  benchmarks	
  based	
  on	
  your	
  
own	
  data	
  and	
  metrics	
  
	
  
–  Lambda	
  Architecture:	
  	
  a	
  generic	
  problem	
  solving	
  system	
  
built	
  on	
  immutability	
  and	
  hybrid	
  batch/real-­‐Rme	
  
workflows	
  
	
  
66	
  
Sources	
  
67	
  
Sources	
  
	
  
Q&A	
  
Thank	
  You	
  
Appendix	
  
71	
  
	
  
One	
  Learning	
  Algorithm	
  Hypothesis	
  
	
  
72	
  
	
  
TheoreRcal	
  Background	
  
	
  •  Doctoral	
  Research	
  
–  Iterated	
  Processes:	
  What	
  happens	
  when	
  we	
  replace	
  Rme	
  with	
  a	
  
random	
  process?	
  
ê  Set	
  t	
  “=“	
  B(t)	
  where	
  B	
  is	
  a	
  Brownian	
  moRon	
  
–  Can	
  Feynman	
  Path	
  Integral	
  be	
  defined	
  MathemaRcally?	
  
ê  Feynman-­‐Kac’s	
  Formula:	
  Duality	
  between	
  PDE’s	
  and	
  SDE’s	
  
ê  Measures	
  on	
  the	
  space	
  of	
  conRnuous	
  funcRons	
  
–  FracRonal	
  Brownian	
  moRon	
  and	
  processes	
  with	
  long	
  memory	
  
ê  Random	
  walks	
  that	
  are	
  not	
  Markov	
  
ê  Malliavin	
  Calculus:	
  (Used	
  to	
  prove	
  Hörmander’s	
  Theorem)	
  
–  Malliavin	
  built	
  a	
  calculus	
  out	
  of	
  Random	
  processes	
  replacing	
  Rme	
  by	
  h	
  in	
  a	
  
Hilbert	
  space	
  	
  
73	
  
StochasRc	
  Processes	
  with	
  Long	
  Memory	
  
•  Since	
  ancient	
  Rmes	
  the	
  Nile	
  River	
  has	
  been	
  known	
  for	
  its	
  long	
  periods	
  of	
  
dryness	
  followed	
  by	
  long	
  periods	
  of	
  floods	
  
•  The	
  hydrologist	
  Hurst	
  was	
  the	
  first	
  one	
  to	
  describe	
  these	
  characterisRcs	
  when	
  
he	
  was	
  trying	
  to	
  solve	
  the	
  problem	
  of	
  flow	
  regularizaRon	
  of	
  the	
  Nile	
  River.	
  	
  
	
  
74	
  
	
  
FracRonal	
  Brownian	
  MoRon	
  
	
  
Copyright	
  ©	
  2015	
  Splunk	
  Inc.	
  
Splunk	
  for	
  Security	
  	
  
Thousands	
  of	
  Customers	
  &	
  Analyst	
  ValidaRon	
  
76	
  
Gartner	
  MQ	
  
for	
  SIEM	
  2014	
  
Splunk	
  sonware	
  complements,	
  replaces	
  and	
  goes	
  beyond	
  tradiRonal	
  SIEMs.	
  
AnalyRcs-­‐Driven	
  Security	
  Use	
  Cases	
  	
  
SECURITY	
  &	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
COMPLIANCE	
  
REPORTING	
  
REAL-­‐TIME	
  
MONITORING	
  OF	
  
KNOWN	
  THREATS	
  
MONITORING	
  	
  
OF	
  UNKNOWN	
  
THREATS	
  
INCIDENT	
  
INVESTIGATIONS	
  
&	
  FORENSICS	
  
FRAUD	
  	
  
DETECTION	
  
INSIDER	
  	
  
THREAT	
  
77	
  
Caspida	
  
240+	
  security	
  apps	
  Splunk	
  App	
  for	
  
Enterprise	
  Security	
  
Splunk	
  Security	
  Intelligence	
  Pla€orm	
  
78	
  
Palo	
  Alto	
  
Networks	
  
NetFlow	
  Logic	
  
FireEye	
  
Blue	
  Coat	
  
Proxy	
  SG	
  
OSSEC	
  
Cisco	
  Security	
  
Suite	
  
AcRve	
  
Directory	
  
F5	
  Security	
  
Juniper	
   Sourcefire	
  
Splunk	
  App	
  for	
  Enterprise	
  Security	
  
Incident	
  Inves2ga2ons	
  &	
  Management	
  Alerts	
  &	
  Dashboards	
  &	
  Reports	
  
Sta2s2cal	
  Outliers	
  &	
  Risk	
  Scoring	
  &	
  User	
  Ac2vity	
   Threat	
  Intel	
  &	
  Asset	
  &	
  Iden2ty	
  Integra2on	
  
Pre-­‐built	
  searches,	
  alerts,	
  reports,	
  dashboards,	
  incident	
  workflow,	
  and	
  threat	
  intelligence	
  feeds	
  
79	
  
IT	
  
OperaRons	
  
ApplicaRon	
  
Delivery	
  
Business	
  
AnalyRcs	
  
Industrial	
  Data	
  
and	
  Internet	
  of	
  
Things	
  
80	
  
Splunk	
  Is	
  Used	
  Across	
  IT	
  and	
  the	
  Business	
  
Business	
  
AnalyRcs	
  
Industrial	
  Data	
  
and	
  Internet	
  of	
  
Things	
  
Security,	
  	
  
Compliance	
  
and	
  Fraud	
  
Strong	
  ROI	
  &	
  facilitates	
  cross-­‐department	
  collaboraEon	
  

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us-15-Zadeh-From-False-Positives-To-Actionable-Analysis-Behavioral-Intrusion-Detection-Machine-Learning-And-The-SOC

  • 1. Copyright  ©  2015  Splunk  Inc.   BEHAVIORAL  INTRUSION  DETECTION,   MACHINE  LEARNING  AND  THE  SOC     Joseph  Zadeh   @JosephZadeh   FROM  FALSE  POSITIVES  TO   ACTIONABLE  ANALYSIS:      
  • 2. 2     Agenda    •  IntroducRon   •  Cybersecurity  AnalyRcs  ROI   •  Lambda  Security:  Defensive  Architectures   •  Behavioral  Intrusion  DetecRon  and  “ArRficial”   Intelligence     •  Q&A  
  • 4. Extends  Security  Analy2cs  Leadership  by  Adding  Behavioral   Analy2cs  to  Be;er  Detect  Advanced  and  Insider  Threats   Come  see  us  at  the  Black  Hat  Booth  #347   Splunk  Acquires   Splunk  App  for   Enterprise  Security   Machine  Learning  +   +   ADVANCED  THREATS     INSIDER  THREATS    
  • 5. 5   Research  Background   •  Security  Research   –  First  security  talk  ever  a^ended  @  Decfon  8:  Jon  Erickson   “Number  Theory,  Complexity  Theory,  Cryptography,  and   Quantum  CompuRng”     ê  I  am  sRll  trying  to  understand  that  talk…   –  Late  90’s:  Traffic  baselines  and  Layer  2  behavioral  profiling   using  MRTG  and  first  generaRon  NMS     –  Recently:    Consultant  on  cybersecurity  analyRcs  projects  the   last  few  years  standing  up  custom  soluRons   •  Related  Research:   –  Fractal  random  walks:  predicRng  Rme  series   ê  Human  Behavior  (stocks),  Physical  Processes  (heat,  magneRsm)   ê  Molecular  kineRcs  (Brownian  moRon,  quantum  mechanics)   ê  StochasRc  Fast  Dynamo,  StochasRc  Anderson  EquaRon   ê  Time  as  a  random  process  
  • 6. 6   ML:  PredicRng  Time  Series        
  • 7. 7   A.I.  and  the  “Big”  Picture     Can  Strong  AI  help  predict..   –  The  dynamo  effect?   –  Pole  shins?   –  ExRncRon  events?   –  Military  escalaRons?   –  Cybersecurity  catastrophes?            
  • 8. 8   Cybersecurity  Defense:  Failings  and  MoRvaRons   Mudge,  “How  a  Hacker  Has  Helped  Influence  the  Government  -­‐  and  Vice  Versa”  Blackhat  2011     9,000  Malware  Samples  Analyzed     –  125  LOC  for  Average  Malware  Sample   –  Stuxnet  =  15,000  LOC  (120x  average  malware  sample  LOC)   –  10,000,000  =  Average  LOC  for  modern  firewall/security  stack   Key  Takeaway:    For  one  single  offensive  LOC  defenders  write  100,000  LOC   –  120:1  Stuxnet  to  average  malware   –  500:1  Simple  text  editor  to  average  malware   –  2,000:1  Malware  suite  to  average  malware   –  100,000:1  Defensive  tool  to  average  malware   –  1,000,000:1  Target  operaRng  system  to  average  malware   Bruce  Schneier,  “The  State  of  Incident  Response  by  Bruce  Schneier”  Blackhat  2014   –  G.  Akerlof,  “The  Market  for  Lemons:  Quality  Uncertainty  and  the  Market  Mechanism”        Key  Takeaway:  Security  is  a  lemons  market!   –  Prospect  theory  “As  a  species  we  are  risk  adverse  when  it  comes  to  gains  and  risk  taking  when  it  comes  to   losses”          Key  Takeaway:  We  don’t  buy  security  products  un2l  it  is  too  late!  
  • 9. 9   A  Philosophy  of  Defense   "Once  you  understand  The  Way  broadly,  you  can  see  it  in  all  things."    ―  Miyamoto  Musashi,  Book  of  Five  Ring  1643            
  • 10. 10   A  Philosophy  of  Defense   "Once  you  understand  The  Way  broadly,  you  can  see  it  in  all  things."    ―  Miyamoto  Musashi,  Book  of  Five  Ring  1643       •  Musashi  was  undefeated  samurai  (60  duels)   •  Throughout  the  book,  Musashi  implies  that  the   way  of  the  Warrior,  as  well  as  the  meaning  of  a   "True  strategist"  is  that  of  somebody  who  has   made  mastery  of  many  art  forms  away  from  that   of  the  sword…   •  Such  a  philosophy  is  fractal  –  it  has  similar   properRes  on  many  scales  
  • 11. 11   Fractal  Defense   "Once  you  understand  The  Way  broadly,  you  can  see  it  in  all  things."    ―  Miyamoto  Musashi,  Book  of  Five  Ring  1643       •  A  fractal  is  a  natural  phenomenon  or  a   mathemaRcal  set  that  exhibits  a  repeaRng   pa^ern  that  displays  at  every  scale.   •  Security  is  a  combinaRon  of  detecRon,   protecRon  and  response   •  Fractal  defense:  a  philosophy  for  scaling   detecRon,  protecRon  and  response  up  and   down  the  IT  ecosystem  
  • 12. 12   Fractal  Defense:  Example   From  our  white  paper  “Defense  at  scale:  Building  a  Central  Nervous   System  for  the  SOC”     –  Leverage  expressive  ways  to  target  TTP’s  (tacRcs,  techniques  and   procedures)  that  are  reusable  and  scalable  across  many  use  cases/ behaviors   –  Can  incorporate  classical  signatures  into  a  probabilisRc  scoring   mechanism    
  • 13. 13   Fractal  Defense:  Example   From  our  white  paper  “Defense  at  scale:  Building  a  Central  Nervous   System  for  the  SOC”              
  • 14. 14   Fractal  Defense:  Example   From  our  white  paper  “Defense  at  scale:  Building  a  Central  Nervous   System  for  the  SOC”              
  • 15. F1  =  Snort  IOC  "MALWARE-­‐CNC  Win.Trojan.Zeus   encrypted  POST  Data  exfiltra2on”   F5  =    Behavioral  IOC:  Large  number  of  POST’s  and  Null  web  referrals   F3  =    Behavioral  IOC:  Periodic  traffic  over  SSL  without  valid  cer2ficate   F4  =  Behavioral   IOC:  New   domain   registered  with   correlated   whois  data   Overall  Social  Cluster  Score  =   g(F1,  F2,  F3,  F4,  F5)   Central  Nervous  System  Approach  
  • 16. 16   Sound  Bytes   –  Fractal  Defense:  Reuse  logic  (and  code)  across  different   security  use  cases.    Make  behavior  based  IOC’s  map  to   adversary  tacRcs,  techniques  and  procedures  for  be^er   scalability.   –  Cybersecurity  Analy2cs  ROI:    Make  security  requirements   funcRonal  by  sexng  realisRc  benchmarks  based  on  your   own  data     –  Lambda  Architecture:    a  generic  problem  solving  system   built  on  immutability  and  hybrid  batch/real-­‐Rme   workflows    
  • 18. 18   Cybersecurity  AnalyRcs   •  MoRvaRon     –  Number  one  mistake  I  see  researchers  making  is  modeling  the   “ConRnuum  of  behaviors”  vs.  modeling  a  discrete  security  use  case   –  Help  rank  order  use  cases  for  management/researchers  without  security   background  (ranking  should  coincide  with  security  expert  intuiRon)   •  Possible  a^ack  behaviors  are  infinite!   –  Intractable  dimensionality   –  “Project  the  problem  down  to  finitely  many  sub  problems”     •  Anomaly  DetecRon  !=  AcRonable  Intelligence    
  • 19. 19   Cybersecurity  AnalyRcs  Roadmap   •  Step  1:    Make  a  grab  bag  of  your  favorite  use  cases/gaps  of  the  threat  surface   –  Model  primiRves:  acRonable  units  or  single  behaviors   •  Step  2:    Determine  exisRng  coverage  and  cost  of  impact  per  use  case   (APPROXIMATE!  Unless  you  are  have  been  logging  costs  of  security  events   internally  similar  to  MS…)     •  Step  3:    Build  ROI  Graph   –  What  is  your  formula  for  ROI?   •  Step  4:    Rank  Order   –  Rank  by  determining  which  ordering  provides  addiRonal  value  to  minimizing  risk   –  Our  example  uses  the  added  structure  of  LAN  and  WAN  but  you  can  complicate   things  further  by  trying  to  incorporate  adversary  capabiliRes,  point  soluRon   metrics,  etc…  
  • 20. 20   Enumerate  Threat  Surface   §  PtH/PtT   §  Time  of  Day  Model   §  Lateral  Reconnaissance   §  Pop  @  Risk   §  Passive  DNS   §  Data  Store  Exfiltra2on   §  Two  Factor  A;ack   §  Exploit  Kits   §  Crowd  sourced  Executable  Classifica2on   §  MITM   §  Telecommuter  Ground  Speed/ Triangula2on   §  Data  mart  reconnaissance/mapping   §  VIP  Asset  Profiling   §  User  to  Group  Behavior  Metrics   §  User  Access  Pa;ern  Models     §  Shadow  IT  misconfigura2on  and  gap   profiling   §  Beachhead/DMZ  a;ack  graph  modeling   Use  Cases:    Insider/LAN  Threats  
  • 21. 21   Enumerate  Threat  Surface   §  Web  Referral  Graph   §  Time  of  Day  Model   §  Heartbeat  Beacon  Detec2on   §  SSL  Side  Channel  Analysis   §  Watering  Hole  Analy2c   §  Passive  DNS  AI   §  Predic2ve  Blacklis2ng   §  URL  Rela2ve  Path  Tokens   §  Edit  Distance  Classifica2on   §  Exploit  Kits  Analy2cs   §  Pseudo  Random  Domain  Detec2on   §  Executable  Graph  Classifier   §  DNS  Tunneling     Use  Cases:    External/WAN  Threats  
  • 22. 22   Enumerate  Threat  Surface   §  Embedded  Systems  Behavioral   Profiles   §  BYOD  Popula2on  Analysis   §  Passive  mobile  applica2on  classifier   §  Mobile  app  store  profiling   §  Common  environment  baselines  for   mobile  users   §  Mobile  Beacon  Detec2on   §  SSL  Side  Channel  Analysis   §  Creden2al  compromise   §  Rogue  Device  Detec2on   §  HVAC  Controller  A;acks  (BacNet)   Use  Cases:    IoT  and  Shadow  IT  
  • 23. 23   Security  AnalyRcs  ROI   •  What  is  the  intrinsic  value  of  each  model  we  build?   –  False  PosiRve/True  PosiRve  raRos,  AUC,  etc.   –  Cost  of  ValidaRng  the  Model   –  What  is  the  risk  to  the  organizaRon  for  missing  the  threat?   –  Find  Net  New  Threats!   •  How  to  prioriRze  what  analyRc  models  to  invest  in   –  Dimensions:    Impact  Risk,  Cost  of  ValidaRon,  Cost  of  Investment,  Cost  of   Maintenance,  Adversary  Model    
  • 27. 27   Adversary  CapabiliRes  and  the  Threat  Surface   •  A^acker  capability  vs.  Security   Capability  is  an  important   dimension  to  consider  when   prioriRzing  new  soluRons/ analyRcs     •  Try  to  handle  the  low  hanging   fruit  to  more  complex  adversary   behavior  by  road  mapping   custom  analyRcs  based  on  gaps   in  exisRng  and  future  technology   soluRons   •  It  is  a  mistake  to  model  the  most   complex  adversaries  first    
  • 28. 28   Nextgen  Benchmarks   •  DARPA,  Predict.org  spearheading  the  collecRon  and  annotaRon  of   complex  data  sets  for  security  research   –  Skaion  2006  DARPA  Dataset     –  Contagio  Malware  Dump   –  CTU  University:  CTU-­‐13  Dataset.  A  Labeled  Dataset  with  Botnet,  Normal   and  Background  traffic   •  Evidence  CollecRon  and  the  SOC   –  Most  important  workflow  that  is  missing  from  large  scale  Intel/telemetry   sharing  across  organizaRons.,     •  Public  Repos  /  OSINT    
  • 29. 29   FuncRonal  Requirements!   •  Real  problem  in  security  is  requirements  are  non-­‐funcRonal   •  Benchmark  next  gen  product  by  isolaRng  the  sub  problems  and   holding  specific  metrics  accountable  to  real  world  data   •  How  do  you  rank  order  the  value  of  a  cybersecurity  analyRc?  
  • 31. 31   Why  Build  A  Defensive  Tool?   •  Incident  Response  Is  Hard  Work!  What   can  we  automate?       A  security  analyst  is  an  oracle  whose   input  is  evidence  and  whose  output  is   True  Posi2ve,  False  Posi2ve,  True   Nega2ve  or  False  Nega2ve       –  The  list  of  possible  quesRons  is  large  but   typically  the  flow  is  a  type  of  decision  tree  for   example    
  • 32. 32   Why  Build  A  Defensive  Tool?   Security  Oracle  Workflow   Example  1:     Evidence  =>  Periodic  CommunicaRon   =>  LAN  to  WAN  Data  =>WAN  URL  has   Bad  ReputaRon  =>  Correlate  with  VT   =>  True  PosiRve     Example  2:    Evidence  =>  PotenRal  C2  Domain  =>   LAN  to  WAN  Data  =>  WAN  URL  is  new   Google  IP  =>  False  PosiRve  
  • 33. 33   Lambda  Security   •  Lambda  Architecture:  batch  +  real  Rme  compuRng  paradigm   •  Minimizes  the  complexity  in  historical  computaRons  overcoming   bo^lenecks  SOC  has  experienced  operaRng  first  gen  SIEMs   •  Data  model  that  is  append-­‐only,  distributed  and  immutable  is  opRmized   for  security  centric  workflows  and  analyst  queries    
  • 34. 34   Lambda  Security   •  Architecture  is  described  by  three  simple  equaRons:   batch  view  =  func2on(all  data)   real2me  view  =  func2on(real2me  view,  new  data)     query  =  func2on(batch  view,  real2me  view)      
  • 35. 35   Lambda  Security   •  Lambda  architecture  provides  a  design  paradigm  for  a   scalable  central  nervous  system  for  the  SOC  whose   components  include   –  Machine  learning  based  ETL(Extract/Transform/Load)     –  Distributed  crawlers     –  Automated  idenRty/session  resoluRon  and  fingerprinRng     –  Formal  evidence  collecRon  protocol  for  automated  labeling  of   incident  response  data     –  AnalyRcs  Metrics  and  establishing  benchmarks  for   heterogeneous  data    
  • 36. 36   When  is  a  model  ready?      
  • 37. 37   Lambda  Firewalls?!   Manage  the  paths  accordingly  start  building  lambda   workflows  into  Everything!!!   •  Lambda  firewall   –  StaRsRcal  whitelist  computaRon  aspect  (fuzzy  ACL’s)       –  Path  for  signatures  and  sequenRal  behaviors  that  is  more  expressive  than   PCRE   •  Central  nervous  system  approach  to  blending  signals   –  Defense  should  scale  up  and  down  the  size  of  organizaRon:  a  properly   engineered  central  nervous  system  should  be  able  to  protect  SMB  market   as  well  as  large  scale  deployments  
  • 38. •  The  Complexity  Class  P-­‐Complete  and  NC   –  NC  =>  parallelizable   •  Some  problems  don’t  parallelize  well!!   –  P-­‐Complete  =>  Inherently  SequenRal   –  Any  problem  where  you  have  to  maintain  state  across  nodes:  Circuit  Value   Problem,  Linear  programming     –  Streaming  models  are  usually  harder  to  maintain  than  batch  models   38   Complexity  Class  P-­‐Complete  and  NC  
  • 39. Behavioral  Intrusion   DetecRon:  Next  Gen   Signatures   39  
  • 40. 40     Cybersecurity  and  Graph  Mining    •  Dynamic  Temporal  Graphs   –  Social  Network  of  CommunicaRons  forms  a  dynamic  graph  that  evolves  over   Rme     –  Given  a  graph  structure  we  can  leverage  state  of  the  art  graph  mining   techniques  to  detect  anomalous  graph  pa^erns   ê  Anomalous  Clicks   ê  Rare  Sub-­‐Structures     ê  Rare  Paths   •  Anomalies  in  graphs  can  be  easy  to  idenRfy  algorithmically   –  PageRank   –  Graph  Cut/ParRRoning   –  Random  Walk  Driven  Label  PropagaRon  
  • 41. Command  and  Control  (C2)   traffic  has  been  established   between  compromised   hosts  inside  the  corporate   network  and  C2  servers       Behavioral  IOC:  Mobile  C2    
  • 42. C2  Infrastructure  changes  locaRons  of  command   and  control  server  new  communicaRon  path  is   established     Behavioral  IOC:  Mobile  C2    
  • 43.   Behavioral  IOC:  Mobile  C2     C2  Infrastructure  changes  locaRons  of  command   and  control  server  new  communicaRon  path  is   established  
  • 45. At  each  Rme  step  (typically  a   day  or  two)  the  C2   Infrastructure  changes   locaRons  of  command  and   control  via  this  “Fluxing”   behavior.  A  subset  of  these   type  of  graph  pa^erns  is   known  as  “Fast  Fluxing”     Behavioral  IOC:  Mobile  C2    
  • 46.   Behavioral  IOC:  Mobile  C2     The  constant  mobility  of   command  and  control   infrastructure  will   conRnue  this  IP/Domain   fluxing  movement  unRl   detected  
  • 47. Command  and  Control  (C2)   traffic  has  been  established   between  “Beachhead”  and   command  and  control   operator     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 48. Heartbeat  traffic   signals  C2  operator   that  infected  asset   is  up  and  ready  for   instrucRons     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 49. Obfuscated  instrucRons   get  returned  through  an   Upstream  conversaRon   embedded  in  PHP,  .js,   Flash,  etc..     Commands  obfuscated  in   this  way  can  be  through   of  as  a  hidden   “Downstream  Beacon”     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 50. Embedded  commands  can   signal  infected  asset  to   enumerate  local  informaRon  on   the  machine,  a^ach  to  open   network  shares  and  perform   lateral  reconnaissance  and   privilege  escalaRon  throughout   the  compromised  network     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 51. Aner  targeted  lateral  movement  and  privilege   enumeraRon  all  cases  of  targeted  a^acks   eventually  involve  the  compromise  of  the  directory   services  roots  servers  (Usually  AD  Forest  Roots)   and  exfiltraRon  of  key  personnel  informaRon  along   with  any       Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 52. ExfiltraRon  and  other   pa^erns  have   different  network   components  but  are   usually  constrained  by   the  pictures  they   make  as  paths  in  a   graph…     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 53. BFS/DFS  +  Other  classic  graph  search  algorithms  are  a  great   examples  of  algorithms  useful  in  detecRng  this  graph  signature   Edge  weights  can  be  encoded  with  key  security  features  to   increase  overall  model  accuracy  regardless  of  the  underlying   algorithms     Behavioral  IOC:  Perimeter  Pivot    
  • 54. Fractal  Defense:    Batch  +  Real  Time  
  • 55. Batch  +  Real  Time:  IdenRty  ResoluRon  
  • 56. High  Risk   CommunicaRon   Cluster   Batch  +  Real  Time:  Updates  
  • 57. F1  =  Snort  IOC  "MALWARE-­‐CNC  Win.Trojan.Zeus   encrypted  POST  Data  exfiltra2on”   F5  =    Behavioral  IOC:  Large  number  of  POST’s  and  Null  web  referrals   F3  =    Behavioral  IOC:  Periodic  traffic  over  SSL  without  valid  cer2ficate   F4  =  Behavioral   IOC:  New   domain   registered  with   correlated   whois  data   Overall  Social  Cluster  Score  =   g(F1,  F2,  F3,  F4,  F5)   Central  Nervous  System  Approach  
  • 58. ArRficial  Intelligence   and  Defense     58  
  • 59. 59     Machine  Learning  and  Cybersecurity    •  Specific  Challenges   –  No  Ground  Truth:  Machine  Learning  works  best  in  the  case  of  large  amount  of  labeled   examples     –  Concept/Adversarial  Drin:  Labels  change  over  Rme   •  Lack  of  Labeled  Data  =>  “No  Free  Lunch”   –  Wolpert,  D.H.,  Macready,  W.G.  (1997),  "No  Free  Lunch  Theorems  for  OpRmizaRon",   IEEE  Transac*ons  on  Evolu*onary  Computa*on  1,  67.   –   Wolpert,  David  (1996),  " The  Lack  of  A  Priori  DisRncRons  between  Learning  Algorithms",  Neural  Computa*on,   pp.  1341-­‐1390.  
  • 60. 60     Limits  of  Automated  Intrusion  DetecRon    •  Travis  Goodspeed:  “Packets  in  Packets”   –  Paper  showing  any  communicaRon  medium  we  can  embed  a  covert   language  to  avoid  eavesdropping  in  open  channels   •  Can  we  programmaRcally  answer  the  quesRons:  “Does  a   communicaRon  contain  steganography?”   –  Equivalent  to  checking  if  a  computer  program  will  halt?   •  Polymorphic  Malware  =>  NFL  
  • 61. 61   A.I.  and  Meta-­‐Theorems   •  Is  intelligence  achievable  in  sonware  (Strong  AI)?     –  Sco^  Aronson:  Unlikely  sonware/hardware  combinaRons  are  compeRng  against   3  Billion  years  of  evoluRon   •  Keep  a  catalogue  of  deep  results  and  curiosiRes   –  Gödel's  Incompleteness   –  Church-­‐Turning   –  Blum's  Speedup  Theorem   –  No  free  Lunch   –  One  Learning  Algorithm  Hypothesis   –  Grover's/Shor’s  Algorithms   •  Track  Cuxng  Edge  ML   –   Paper:  “Building  high-­‐level  features  using  large  scale  unsupervised  learning”   ê  Andrew  Ng  and  Jeff  Dean  et  al.  (2012)  ICML  
  • 62. 62   HalRng  Problem   •  The  problem  is  to  determine,  given  a  program  and  an  input  to  the  program,   whether  the  program  will  eventually  halt  when  run  with  that  input   •  The  halRng  problem  is  famous  because  it  was  one  of  the  first  problems   proven  algorithmically  undecidable.    This  means  there  is  no  algorithm  which   can  be  applied  to  any  arbitrary  program  and  input  to  decide  whether  the   program  stops  when  run  with  that  input.  
  • 63. 63     TheoreRcal  Backbone    –  Classical  ComputaRon   ê  Logical  Consistency  of  Computer  Languages  (Church-­‐Turing)   ê  Physical  RealizaRon  of  Turning  Machine  (Church  turning  +  Von  Neumann)   ê  FloaRng  point  representaRon  with  controllable  error  propagaRon     –  Weak/Strong  AI   ê  HalRng  problem  and  No  Free  Lunch  theorems  =>  building  intelligent  sonware   is  “hard”   ê  Current  machine  learning  methods  are  a  type  of  weak  AI     –  Distributed  ComputaRon   ê  Complexity  classes  P-­‐Complete,  NC   ê  CAP  Theorem   ê  Actor  Models   ê  Batch  +  Real-­‐Time  :=  Lambda  Architecture  
  • 64. 64   Data  Science  in  Cybersecurity   •  What  is  a  behavior  mathemaRcally?   –  Fraud  in  Cybersecurity  manifests  itself  in  infinitely  many  possibiliRes     •  Automated  idenRficaRon  of  fraud  in  IT  is  in  some  sense   equivalent  to  trying  solve  the  halRng  problem  on  a  Turning   Machine   –  ComputaRonally  it  is  impossible  to  “enumerate”  all  possible  behaviors    
  • 65. 65   Blackhat  Sound  Bytes   –  Fractal  Defense:  Reuse  logic  (and  code)  across  different   security  use  cases.    Make  behavior  based  IOC’s  map  to   adversary  TacRcs,  Techniques  and  Procedures  for  be^er   scalability.   –  Cybersecurity  Analy2cs  ROI:    Make  requirements   funcRonal  by  sexng  realisRc  benchmarks  based  on  your   own  data  and  metrics     –  Lambda  Architecture:    a  generic  problem  solving  system   built  on  immutability  and  hybrid  batch/real-­‐Rme   workflows    
  • 71. 71     One  Learning  Algorithm  Hypothesis    
  • 72. 72     TheoreRcal  Background    •  Doctoral  Research   –  Iterated  Processes:  What  happens  when  we  replace  Rme  with  a   random  process?   ê  Set  t  “=“  B(t)  where  B  is  a  Brownian  moRon   –  Can  Feynman  Path  Integral  be  defined  MathemaRcally?   ê  Feynman-­‐Kac’s  Formula:  Duality  between  PDE’s  and  SDE’s   ê  Measures  on  the  space  of  conRnuous  funcRons   –  FracRonal  Brownian  moRon  and  processes  with  long  memory   ê  Random  walks  that  are  not  Markov   ê  Malliavin  Calculus:  (Used  to  prove  Hörmander’s  Theorem)   –  Malliavin  built  a  calculus  out  of  Random  processes  replacing  Rme  by  h  in  a   Hilbert  space    
  • 73. 73   StochasRc  Processes  with  Long  Memory   •  Since  ancient  Rmes  the  Nile  River  has  been  known  for  its  long  periods  of   dryness  followed  by  long  periods  of  floods   •  The  hydrologist  Hurst  was  the  first  one  to  describe  these  characterisRcs  when   he  was  trying  to  solve  the  problem  of  flow  regularizaRon  of  the  Nile  River.      
  • 74. 74     FracRonal  Brownian  MoRon    
  • 75. Copyright  ©  2015  Splunk  Inc.   Splunk  for  Security    
  • 76. Thousands  of  Customers  &  Analyst  ValidaRon   76   Gartner  MQ   for  SIEM  2014  
  • 77. Splunk  sonware  complements,  replaces  and  goes  beyond  tradiRonal  SIEMs.   AnalyRcs-­‐Driven  Security  Use  Cases     SECURITY  &                     COMPLIANCE   REPORTING   REAL-­‐TIME   MONITORING  OF   KNOWN  THREATS   MONITORING     OF  UNKNOWN   THREATS   INCIDENT   INVESTIGATIONS   &  FORENSICS   FRAUD     DETECTION   INSIDER     THREAT   77  
  • 78. Caspida   240+  security  apps  Splunk  App  for   Enterprise  Security   Splunk  Security  Intelligence  Pla€orm   78   Palo  Alto   Networks   NetFlow  Logic   FireEye   Blue  Coat   Proxy  SG   OSSEC   Cisco  Security   Suite   AcRve   Directory   F5  Security   Juniper   Sourcefire  
  • 79. Splunk  App  for  Enterprise  Security   Incident  Inves2ga2ons  &  Management  Alerts  &  Dashboards  &  Reports   Sta2s2cal  Outliers  &  Risk  Scoring  &  User  Ac2vity   Threat  Intel  &  Asset  &  Iden2ty  Integra2on   Pre-­‐built  searches,  alerts,  reports,  dashboards,  incident  workflow,  and  threat  intelligence  feeds   79  
  • 80. IT   OperaRons   ApplicaRon   Delivery   Business   AnalyRcs   Industrial  Data   and  Internet  of   Things   80   Splunk  Is  Used  Across  IT  and  the  Business   Business   AnalyRcs   Industrial  Data   and  Internet  of   Things   Security,     Compliance   and  Fraud   Strong  ROI  &  facilitates  cross-­‐department  collaboraEon