The document discusses key developments affecting the future of South Africa's tourism industry. It notes that tourism numbers are down due to the global recession, rising costs, and overcapacity since the 2010 World Cup. However, it also outlines opportunities for growth through investing in infrastructure, addressing land issues, focusing on regional and domestic tourism, and promoting rural and less visited areas. It argues that while there is uncertainty, the tourism industry must be innovative to stay competitive during these interesting times of change.

1. TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS: The future just isn’t the same anymore… I see… Uhhh… Kurt Ackermann Getaway Travel & Tourism Conference 1 September 2011 Ozinsky & Ackermann

2. SMART PHONES ON(BUT SILENT) Conference Hashtag: #GT&TC2011 @kurt_a

3. Once upon a time back in 2010…

5. Everyone knows what happens to a World Cup host…

6. The future Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

7. The future Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

8. The future Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix)

9. circa-2012 Future Tourism Economy (pessimist view)

10. The future Nightmarish landscape - “Let’s get real” the fantasy is over… (Clip from The Matrix) Aristocratic elite travellers Tourism industry as anarcho-syndicalist commune (Lovely muck) Future Tourism Economy (optimist view) Nostalgic Python-ic

11. OK, let’s get serious…

12. “What ARE the key developments affecting the future of South Africa’s tourism industry?”

13. First, a brief pause to get defensive…

14. 1400+ industries No ‘Tourism’ per se

15. ‘Industry’ vs. ‘Economy’ Source: Gauteng Tourism Theme Paper, 2009

17. Overcapacity! Undercapacity! Municipalities Bad marketing! 0 No Domestic Focus! Poor Service Quality! SMMEs Private Sector National Department SA Tourism DMOs 0 Global Recession! 0 Airline Fees!

18. (2010 IMNSHO)

19. Brand improvement

20. 2010 a technical and football success “FIFA President, SeppBlatter, has given South Africa 9 out of 10 for organising a successful World Cup.” (12 July 2010)

22. “I am shocked, shocked…”

23. “Loss of permanent visitors” “The sobering reality of mega-events is that nearly all host cities and nations learn a hard lesson: they over-estimate the benefits beforehand and get stuck with under-utilised infrastructure afterwards. They face an extended period of anti-climax…” October 2007

24. SINCE 2010

25. Jozi, Cape Town IRT bus services

26. High-speed rail Photo: urbanjoburg

27. MPUMALANGA …the implosion continues  TSHWANE …getting it together  BUFFALO CITY ?!?

28. 400+ 2011 est.  15 July 218 Rhino poaching   31 May 173 Source: SAN Parks data via stoprhinopoaching.com

29. TODAY

30. Bookings Down Over-capacity ‘Oh *(@#!’ Too Expensive Long Haul is Dead Tourism Stats

31. “A rising tide lifts all boats” SA Economic Output Doubled South Africa’s GDP

32. World GDP Growth

33. Tourism Core Market GDP Growth

34. Your Traditional Customer

36. The Pain is Real. Photo: flickr.com/allforblue

39. African land travel volume up

40. Total spend up

41. Weak job creation

42. Government spending up

44. Resolution of land ownership obstacles by 2012

45. Minimum work standards by 2012

46. Domestic tourism focus

47. 5 new African offices

48. More regional programmes (TFCAs)

49. Emphasize rural & less visited areas

50. TBCSA or similar at provincial and city levels

51. National Convention Bureau

52. PCO accreditation

53. National VICs using national database

54. Grading extensions beyond accommodation

56. Now Then

58. Companies Act 71 of 2008

59. Electricity Tariff Increase Electricity price doubles twice in 10 years 90% 77%

60. BRIC + S Photo: China News

61. Lion’s share of GDP growth to 2014 Not driven by consumer spending Bigger economies than G7 by 2050

62. National Standard for Responsible Tourism

63. Cape Town Declaration RESPONSIBLE TOURISM IN DESTINATIONS Shaping sustainable spaces into better places We, representatives of inbound and outbound tour operators, emerging entrepreneurs in the tourism industry, national parks, provincial conservation authorities, all spheres of government, tourism professionals, tourism authorities, NGOs and hotel groups and other tourism stakeholders, from 20 countries in Africa, North and South America, Europe and Asia; having come together in Cape Town to consider the issue of Responsible Tourism in Destinations have agreed this declaration… 2002 2001 1996 High Expectations 2004 2006 2008 2009 2011 2011 2010 Calabash Tours (PE): Overall Winner 2004 Calabash Tours (PE): Best for Poverty Reduction 2004 Dyer Island Cruises: Best In a Marine Environment 2006 – Highly Commended Voluntours: Best Volunteering Organisation 2008 - Highly Commended Stormsriver Adventures: Best for Poverty Reduction 2008 - Highly Commended Great Plains Conservation: Best for Conservation of Wildlife and Habitats 2009 2011 Cape Town: Best Destination 2009 IOC Sport and Environment Award 2011 KZN: Best Destination 2011 - Longlisted SANS 1162:2011 National Standard for Responsible Tourism

64. HEADED OUR WAY

65. Tourism BEE Charter targets ratchet up in 2013

66. Carbon-constrained future

67. ?

68. UNCERTAINTY: Risk? or Opportunity?

69. LONGER TERM FACTORS

70. City-regions as gateways

71. Local Travel. Slow Travel.

73. LOHAS

74. “The Good Life”

75. OMG

76. +2 billion people in next 40 years…

77. Consider 2001 – 2011…

79. $73.44/bbl 2011 2.5x increase in real dollar terms $29.23/bbl 2001

80. 2001

83. UNCERTAIN CERTAINTIES

86. 2014 Elections?

88. WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS

89. Photo: ibntimes

90. Photo: historymike.blogspot.com

91. “…The dominion of the West, is ending, not rapidly but steadily. Growth, jobs, expansion, excitement — and, yes, possibility — lie in the great non-Western arc from China through India to South Africa and Brazil. Go South! Go East! That’s the dictum of the age…” Roger Cohen, International Herald Tribune and New York Times, 13 August 2011

92. “May you live in interesting times.”

93. “Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.”

94. Fortune favours the bold. Kurt Ackermann kurt@imagineer.cc @kurt_a Afrika-T.com