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AUTM Intro and BMC

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Keith McGreggor

The document discusses evidence-based entrepreneurship and the scientific method applied to building startups. It emphasizes that startups should search for a repeatable and scalable business model through iterative customer discovery and validation. The business model canvas is presented as a tool to develop hypotheses about the customer segments, value propositions, and other elements, which can then be tested through experiments and by analyzing results to make progress towards the optimal model. Pivoting is discussed as an important part of the process when hypotheses are disproven.

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what is the happiest place on earth?
the startup story
THIS IS STARTUP!
no
hard work
long hours
little or no pay
>50% gone in the FIRST year
only 5% ever raise ANY money
only 0.62% ever raise any VC money
75% of all VC-backed startups FAIL
the math is bad
it is hard ...
... but we know a better way
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship and the Business Model Canvas
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 NASDAQ 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
$1,000,000,000,000
we know something now that we didn’t know before ...
we know something now that we didn’t know before we know how to build startups engineer
CoE CoS CoC CoA CoLA CoB
what is a company?
A organization which sells a product or service in exchange for revenue and profit
Dutch West India Company 1620
1856 - First Org Chart
1908
Tools for the 20th Century “Century of the Corporation”
... but what about startups?
Startups are a Smaller Version 
 of a Large Company
Startups are a Smaller Version 
 of a Large Company
How to create a startup (before 2010) ...
All I Need to Do is Execute the Plan
All I Need to Do is Make the Forecast
Step 1. Business Plan Step 2. Five-year Forecast Step 3. ??? Step 4. PROFIT!
What we know now (and have known all along)...
Business Plans are FICTION
"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
Five year forecast?
Five year forecast? MAGICAL THINKING
Previous 5-Year Plans
1908
... but what about startups?
Startups Search 
 Companies Execute
what is a startup?
a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model definition of “startup”
Business Model 
 Product/Service Startups Companies
what is a business model?
Business Model Generation 2010
Motivation
A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.
Business Model Business Plan>
Motivation #1 a better tool for startups
Core Idea or Technology Company
Core Idea or Technology Company
Core Idea or Technology Company 1
Core Idea or Technology Company N
Motivation #2 shared language for strategic conversations
(smart people sitting around a table)
the canvas has a very specific organization
Think of it as a theater…
parts of the model
VP
Value Proposition
products & services A list of all the products and services a value proposition is built around
pain relievers describe how your products and services alleviate customer pains
gain creators describe how your products and services create customer gains
VP CS
Customer Segment
customer jobs what customers are trying to get done in their work and in their lives task to perform, problem to solve, needs to satisfy
customer pains describe bad outcomes, risks, and obstacles related to customer jobs
customer gains describe the more or less expected benefits the customers are seeking
VP CS Product /Market Fit!
The set of value proposition benefits that you design to attract customers. Create Observe The set of customer characteristics that you assume, observe, and verify in the market. Fit Outcome If a Pain reliever or Gain cre anything, it may not be cre value. Don't worry if not all checked – you can't satisfy yourself, how well does you tion really fit your Custome customer profilevalue map
What About My Technology?
Customers want your technology. MYTH
Customers want your technology. MYTH REALITY Customers want their jobs done; their problems addressed; their pain killed; their dreams achieved.
Research Core Idea or Technology Company
Research Core Idea or Technology Company Our POV
Research Core Idea or Technology Company OVER VALUED
Core Idea or Technology Company X
Core Idea or Technology Company UNDER VALUED
Core Idea or Technology Company > 95% PIVOT
Customers want your technology. MYTH REALITY Customers want their jobs done; their problems addressed; their pain killed; their dreams achieved.
Why do we call it evidence-based entrepreneurship?
Provide evidence showing “what” customers care about before focusing on “how” to help them First, establish the customer
Provide evidence showing that your customers care about how your products and services kill pains and create gains Then, develop the value proposition
Provide evidence showing that the way you intend to create, deliver, and capture value is likely to work Finally, consider the whole model
I find out what the world needs. Then I go ahead and try to invent it. - Thomas Edison
parts of the model continued
VP CS C
VP CS CKR
VP CS C KA KR P
VP CS C KA KR P
VP CS C P KA KR C$
VP CS C P KA KR C$ R$
VP CS C P KA KR C$ R$
VP CS C R$ Cost? Value?
VP CS C P KA KR C$ R$
Soccer Moms Kids Grandparents Make guesses about who or what goes into each of the nine boxes
BUT…they are just GUESSES!
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
the scientific method applies to business
create a startup thesis the scientific method
create a startup thesis the scientific method generate hypotheses ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
create a startup thesis the scientific method generate hypotheses make predictions
create a startup thesis the scientific method generate hypotheses make predictions do the iteration loop
the iteration loop
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Choose one of these
make hypotheses & predictions design tests prioritize hypotheses Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220
* Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress prioritize tests reflect & learn run tests
the iteration loopTesting Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221•••
the process Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 thesisTesting Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 basis for company Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 Testing Overview Test Card + -Extract Hypotheses Prioritize Hypotheses Design Test Design Testing220 TESTINGVALUEPROPOSTIONS 220 * Working preview content for private review only, do not distribute — © Copyright Osterwalder, Pigneur, Bernarda, Smith, and Papadakos Learning Card + ! -Prioritize Tests Run Tests Capture Learnings Make Progress 221 many repetitions!
critical
the info you need to know is somewhere out in the world
the info you need to know is not in your lab or in your office
GOOTB!
advice
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.
“Now I’m going to discuss how we would look for a new law. In general, we look for a new law by the following process. First, we guess it … no, don’t laugh, that’s the truth. Then we compute the consequences of the guess, to see what, if this is right, if this law we guess is right, to see what it would imply and then we compare the computation results to nature or we say compare to experiment or experience, compare it directly with observations to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG. In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess,… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.”
useful heuristics
useful heuristics
useful heuristics
remember it’s a process
169 Evidence-based Entrepreneurship Core Idea or Technology Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓
Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓ Customer Creation Company Building Startup Company
171 GOOTB! Expectations Interviews Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓ 100+ even more
just a few more…
MVPMinimum Viable Product
175 Progression Core Idea or Technology Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓ ✓✓
176 Progression Core Idea or Technology Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓ ✓✓ What if you’re WRONG?
PIVOT
PIVOT vs PIVOT Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓
Startup Mode Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓
VP CS C P KA KR C$ R$
Start here … Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓
a temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model definition of “startup”
N Your search begins OW
venturelab.gatech.edu @venturelab / @keithmcgreggor keith@venturelab.gatech.edu 75 Fifth St NW, Suite 415, Atlanta GA 30308

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