Shaping Tomorrow - Future Opportunities

Future
Opportunities
to watch out for
20 February 2020
Athena @ ST
Shaping Tomorrow
A Future Prognosis
Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping TomorrowFor every opportunity there are risks and for every risk there are opportunities - Dr. Michael Jackson

Purpose
Help everyone anticipate and plan for tomorrow
Without an impartial strategic context there is a risk
that planners, policymakers and capability developers
would assume a future that supports their existing
assumptions and bias
We do not attempt to predict the future, but challenge
your thinking about shaping tomorrow and offer you
tools to navigate successfully
2
2Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow

Introduction
Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, has found on the
future of this topic and act accordingly for you, your family and
organization in the years ahead. Make notes on issues that
could affect you and them as you go
If you are new to foresight, we recommend you view this slide
presentation first to get the best out of this report
Speed read Athena’s high-level take outs on the left of each
slide, or delve deeper into her findings on the right
Analysis
For a more detailed explanation of the graphics used in this
presentation please click here. All outlooks based on the time
period 2020-2070 and what’s likely to be happening in 2025 at
a 95% confidence level unless otherwise stated. Please contact
us for longer-term outlooks
Speaker notes are also provided below every page to assist you
in interpreting the slides
3

Vantage Points
4
Slide
Shared under creative commons rules by Shaping Tomorrow
1. Front page
2. Purpose
3. Introduction
4. Slide index
5. Driving forces
6. Trends
7. Causes
8. Consequences
9. Solutions
10. System
11. Cloud
12. Geographies
13. Cities
14. Weak
15. Emerging
16. Maturing
17. Declining
18. Radar
19. Graph-It
20. Trend Waves
21. Pie Charts
22. Warnings
23. Bubbles
24. Inflections
25. Shocks
26. Influencers
27. Heat Map
28. Year on Year
39. Sentiment
30. Challenges
31. Constraints
32. Dilemmas
33. Outcries
34. Extremes
35. PEST
36. Strengths
37. Weaknesses
38. Opportunities
39. Threats
40. Alternative Futures
41. Complexity
42. CLA
43. Scenarios
44. Three Horizons
45. Questions
46. Now It’s Your Turn
47. Potential responses
48. Sources
49. Evidence
50. Athena
51. Keep up to date

Driving Forces
5
Digital transformation is a strategic
priority for most global companies
and will open new revenue
opportunities.
[We would suggest that digital
transformation should be a priority
and a big opportunity for most SME’s
too.
There will be long tails and many
new innovations in every corner of
business in the next decade.]
Know the global changes that will affect us all

Trends
6
The smart cities movement is
gaining adoption on a global scale,
creating an opportunity to share
best practices beyond national
borders.
Directions
See the trends in which your interest is developing or changing

Causes
7
For the first time in economic
history in the industrial age, the
world will not have a dominant
source of energy; there will be many
opportunities for fuels to compete
against each other.
Directions
Understand what's driving what

Consequences
8
In the past year, the growing
interest from investors was matched
by a wave of start-ups aiming to
capitalise on existing opportunities -
tech companies looking to
streamline processes and improve
operational efficiency.
Directions
Discover likely outcomes and effects

Solutions
9
Mobile connectivity and in-built
sensors strengthen the IoT
ecosystem creating a new world of
opportunities.
Directions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic

System
10
Maps
Of real interest here is that energy
efficiency, the fight against extremism
and climate change, government and
marketing actions are seemingly separate
efforts that do not have joined up future
thinking to embrace full opportunities for
improvement in the human condition.
Meanwhile organizations and country
focus is primarily on economic issues and
again not on efforts to improve the
human condition other than through
capitalism.
Suggests big disconnects and
opportunities to be exploited.

Cloud
11
Maps
The top 5 topics underpinning the future
of this topic are infrastructure related -
property, construction, energy,
economics and cities.
The most trending topics are cyber,
internet and construction in the year
2022, 2027 and 2032 respectively, again
highlighting opportunities in
infrastructure development plus efforts
to reduce cyber risk and grow internet
use.

12
Top five countries for opportunities are in Sweden, Chile, Canada,
Bangladesh and AustraliaGeographies

13
Top five cities (excluding Tehran and Hong Kong due to political conflict) are
London, Moscow, Ankara, Birmingham and New YorkCities

Weak
14
Africa's population is projected to
reach around 2.5 billion people by
2050, presenting promising trade
and investment opportunities as the
world's last remaining frontier
market, but also raising critical
challenges regarding security and
stability.
Cycles
Explore new discoveries, inventions and ideas

Emerging
15
New housing projects in emerging
economies are expected to provide
new opportunities for construction
globally, with around 270 million
new homes needed in China and
India alone by 2025 to meet the
needs of growing population growth
and urbanization trends.
Cycles
Notice what’s becoming apparent or prominent

Maturing
16
The global market opportunity for
firms that develop, service and
sustain urban settlements is already
estimated to be worth $500bn and
is expected to double by 2023.
Cycles
Contemplate future development, growth and completion

Declining
17
Job switching in the U.S. during the
3rd quarter of 2017 was 27% - an
all-time high: Nearly two-thirds of
the global workforce is actively or
passively seeking new job
opportunities.
Cycles
Explore what’s deteriorating, failing or collapsing

Radar
18
Outlooks
of this topic are climate, income, devices,
The most trending topics are climate,
income and economics in the year 2020,
2025 and 2033 respectively.
[Suggests major opportunities in
infrastructure development, particularly
in smart cities and energy efficiency and
in poverty reduction and wealth
management of a rising global middle
class]

Graph-It
Opportunities to create smart
cities, food sustainability, more
advanced computing and
robotics and seamless, driverless
transport systems are expected
to drive the future in 2025.

The topics underpinning the future are income, cyber, drink and payments.
The most trending topics are investment, construction and property in the
year 2031, 2031 and 2036 respectively. Four years ago the most trending
topics were cyber, business and climate in the year 2021, 2039 and 2049
respectively.
4 YEARS AGO
Trend Waves
NOW

Pie Charts
21
Outlooks
of this topic are climate, income, devices,
The most trending topics are climate,
business and income in the year 2020,
2023 and 2025 respectively.
Climate change opportunities in moving
to zero carbon, increasing renewable
supplies and better managing demand
abound

Warnings
22
The future holds both opportunity,
with global food demand expected
to increase by up to 98% by 2050,
and risk, with increasing use of
robotics, automation and precision
agriculture threatening the loss of
over 20 million livelihoods.
Signals
Take heed of alerts, cautions and forewarning

Bubbles
23
Signals
Observe ballooning and disillusionment
Brexit could present an
opportunity to deepen the
U.S.-U.K. alliance and
would likely boost the
troubled European project
in the process.

Inflections
24
Worldwide data is predicted to grow
tenfold over the next seven years,
bringing a raft of opportunities and
challenges for businesses across a
multitude of sectors.
Signals
Give thought to potential turning points

Shocks
25
33% of global consumers now
choose to buy from brands they
believe are doing social or
environmental good-an estimated
$1.2 trillion opportunity for brands
that make their sustainability
credentials clear.
[Many traditional businesses are ill-
prepared for this shock to their
future income]
Signals
Eyeball potential surprises, wildcards, traumas

Influencers
26
Opinions
Energy transformation is the key focus of
the USA, China, India and Australia and
many more countries.
Amazon, Apple and Google lead the
corporates seeking to reduce their energy
consumption.
Discover top 10 mentions of talking points, actors, organizations and countriess,
people and places
ver top 10 mentions of talking points, people and places

27
Top regions for future opportunity are currently in Oceania, North and
South America. Africa and Northern Europe but there are plenty of
opportunity spaces across the world
Heatmap

28
The top 5 topics underpinning the future of this topic are property, cities,
construction, economics. The most trending topics are cyber, government
and internet in the year 2022, 2024 and 2027 respectively. Travel, business
and population have slipped back over the last four years.
Year-on-Year

29
Not surprisingly pundits and experts report opportunities in a very positive
light. Top opportunities are seen as improvements in retail, hygiene,
migration, training and waste reduction.
The notable negative centers on water availability which of course
represents an opportunity for entrepreneurs and leaders to solve.
Sentiment

30
Digitalization, the circular
economy, Industry 4.0 and
holograms have the
highest intensity and
nearest tipping points to
public acceptance.
Challenges

Constraints
31
The main limiting factor on opening
up a world of job transition
opportunities is the willingness to
make a reasonable investment in
reskilling that will bridge workers
onto new jobs.
Limits
Reflect on what is restricted, compelled or avoided

Dilemmas
32
Get ready for a lot more seniors in
the workforce - which has the
potential to be both a problem and
an opportunity.
Limits
Consider situations involving difficult choices

Outcries
33
Limits
Understand what's testing people's patience
For hundreds of millions of
desperate people, Europe
will remain the land of
opportunity, and so will
the United States.
In global health,
agriculture, gender-based
violence, there are large
opportunities for
development innovation.

Extremes
34
Blockchain will give customers the
opportunity to participate in a freer,
more transparent global trade, and
potentially limit the need for
brokers and lower intermediary
costs.
Limits
Investigate what’s deteriorating, failing or collapsing

PEST
Political:
policy; brexit; defence; economy;
election
Economic:
economy; demand; growth; market;
GDP; consumer
Social:
health; innovation; data; infrastructure;
artificial intelligence; security
Technological:
data; artificial intelligence; internet of
things; cloud; UAV; virtual reality
35
Describes a framework of macro-environmental factors used
in the environmental scanning component of strategic
management

Strengths
36
Mobile connectivity and in-built
sensors strengthen the IoT
ecosystem creating a new world of
opportunities.
SWOT
Positive attributes that enhance performance

Weaknesses
37
The ocean economy's contribution
to global value creation will be
doubled by 2030 compared to 2010,
meaning new economic
opportunities but also new
challenges and risks.
SWOT
Negative factors that detract from strengths

Opportunities
38
Developing hydrogen technology
has the potential to not only reduce
emissions from industry but could
help us seize the opportunities of
the global shift to cleaner
economies - with the prize of up 2
million jobs and £170bn of annual
exports by 2030.
SWOT
Factors that are likely to contribute to your success

Threats
39
Plastic waste is not just a risk for
companies: innovation, and thinking
about replacing plastic, can bring
opportunities.
SWOT
Factors that you have no control over

Alternative
Futures
The four alternate futures methods
presented here and next suggest that
most of the focus is currently managerial,
systemic, obvious and growth led
However, Entrepreneurs, Leaders and
Activists will change existing paradigms in
profound ways, some businesses will
collapse, and myths and existing
paradigms will be exploded towards very
different futures. To remain agile and
resilient in this VUCA world organizations
need to determine their path forward
through futures programs that give them
an entrepreneurial, social and leadership
edge
40
Foresight Methods
Taking different viewpoints
VUCA is an acronym used by the American Military. It stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous

Complexity
Obvious:
AI, data storage, disruption, technology
Complicated:
Rapid prototyping, drones, carbon
neutral, US election
Complex:
5G, sustainable food, rural communities
Chaotic:
cybercrime, brexit, water, energy,
sensing
41
Lead facilitator
Dr Mike Jackson
Helps managers to identify how they perceive situations and
make sense of their own and other people's behaviour

CLA
Litany:
artificial intelligence, climate change,
rapid prototyping, housing
System:
cybercrime, gaming, 5G, India
Worldview:
energy, infrastructure, food and
agricultural technology
Myth:
talent shortages, technology fear, US
leadership
42
Lead facilitator
Professor Sohail Inayatullah
Causal Layered Analysis identifies four levels of causality to
more effectively shape transformative futures

Discipline:
housing, renewable energy, climate
change, new knowledge
Grow:
Smartphones, online retail, data storage,
blockchain
Transform:
5G, food technology, fintech,
infrastructure
Collapse:
diesel, US leadership, drones, machine
downtime
43
Scenarios
Lead facilitator
Alessandro Fergnani
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen
and encourages development of a robust, agile response

Managerial:
5G, agile foresight, frictionless
payments,
fintech
Leadership:
digital transformation, climate change,
circular economy, transparency
Entrepreneurial:
mobile connectivity, job switching,
infrastrastructure, food technology
44
Three Horizons
Lead facilitator
Patricia Lustig
Encourages further and wider debate about the facilitation
of transformative change from one level to another

Questions for you to
consider
Take at least a medium term, not a short-term view when considering these questions
45
What if device-related data could be monetised and turned
into a revenue opportunity?
Will farms be more apt to consolidation and getting larger, or
will smaller farms create niche marketing opportunities to sell
to their consumers?
But what if we reframe the automation-eliminates-jobs
problem as an opportunity?
How can business owners fully know the cost of inefficient
processes, out-of-date technology, demotivated employees,
wasted time and missed opportunities?
How can business owners fully know the cost of inefficient
processes, out-of-date technology, demotivated employees,
wasted time and missed opportunities?
“People usually overestimate the change that will occur in
the next two years and underestimate the change that will
occur in the next ten.” - Bill Gates

Now it’s your turn!
You’ve read my analysis, what do you think?
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All Rights Reserved
46

Potential Responses
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Sources
48
Athena used the top sources shown
here as the ones to create this
report and determine which
embedded forecasts are included in
this Trend Alert. She found 6,686
forecasts in seconds on 20 February
2020 to allow us to automatically
build and publish this report in less
than the time it takes to get and
drink a coffee.

Evidence
Search term opportun* . Use
this search term to explore
Shaping Tomorrow’s extensive
database for more knowledge
and wisdom and latest data
and information on the topic.
49
Latest Forecasts

Athena
50
I do show duplicates to aid your
understanding of themes as well as
contradictory forecasts. I may also show
near-duplicates. You can speed read past
the duplicates and near-duplicates if you
wish, though the latter may show
additional information.
You can use the contradictory, and likely
uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine
different scenarios. The future is
unpredictable, but we can examine the
possibilities and choose our preferable
future from the choices I present.
I’m apolitical. I report forecasts from
different viewpoints however distasteful
that might be to our own values.
However, my news algorithm does not
allow me to show fake or hate news. But,
i can show you highlighted rumours or
controversies that may turn out to come
true.
Wearing rose-colored glasses is not
my purpose; reporting potential
futures is. So, I recommend you check
my veracity before responding to the
extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, I can be fallible. Do
recognize that you and your associates
are biased too. But whereas you tire,
make mistakes and only recognize
what interests you, I do not. I might
miss or misinterpret as you do, but
with far less frequency and I'll take
uncomfortable truths and alternative
ideas in my stride. But, please let us
know if you feel my bias can be
reduced.
We want to do our best for you. And,
as with any research, you should check
and triangulate my findings for
yourself.
Contact us if you would like some free training with these methods

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Feel free to contact them and you’ll see
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help you.
51
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The Shaping Tomorrow Team

Shaping Tomorrow - Future Opportunities

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