1. 21st May 2010
DAILY CALL
Domestic Indices VIEWPOINT:
Close Pt +/- %Change
Sensex 16,519.68 111.19 0.68
KEY SUPPORT IN THE VICINITY OF 4820
NIFTY 4947.60 27.95 0.57
It was carnage on Wall Street as Dow and Nasdaq
Major Indices International
Close Pt +/- %Change tanked 3.6% and 4.1% respectively, the worst single day
Dow Jones 10,068.01 -376.36 -3.74
Nasdaq 2,204.01 -94.36 -4.28 fall since 5th March 2009 and 17th Feb 2009 respectively.
Nikkei 9,778.65 -251.66 -2.57
Hang Seng 19,545.83 -33.15 -0.17 Disappointing Jobless claims and leading economic
(Asian Market Last Price as at 7.40 AM)
Major Indices indicator data and Progress on financial-reforms bill added
Close Pt +/- %Change
MIDCAP 6,776.30 -3.32 -0.05 to the negative sentiment prevailing on account of
SMLCAP 8,541.17 -47.28 -0.55
BSE-500 6,636.95 25.87 0.39 continuing concerns over euro zone debt crisis. Weekly
Gainers ( A Group) Losers (A Group) Jobless claims came in at 471000 versus 446000 for the
Comp. Close %chg Comp. Close %chg
ONGC 1118.2 8.72 Educomp Sol 504.1 -9.07 previous week, the expectation being 439000. Leading
Piramal Health 569.65 8.52 Everest Kanto 132.25 -6.21
LIC Housing F 962.05 4.08 HDIL 219.75 -4.79 Economic Indicator fell 0.1% in April after rising 1.3% in
Gainers ( Mid Cap) Losers (MidCap) March, the expectation being a rise of 0.2%.
Comp. Close %chg Comp. Close %chg
Sun Pharma A 103.85 8.74 Educomp Sol 504.1 -9.07
Indusind Bank 196.1 8.58 Triveni Engr 95.55 -6.14
Piramal Health 569.65 8.52 Dalmia Cement 208.35 -5.6 The gains in Oil & Gas stocks on account of increase in
Advance / Declines
Sensex APM gas price helped our markets closed with modest
Advance 1143
Declines 1670
gains, though after a volatile trade yesterday. Nifty closed
Unchanged 113
at 4947, up 27 points but off the day high of 4980. Today
Currency / Bond
Current %Change markets are likely to open with a large gap down on
INR / USD 47.07 1.50
USD / EUR 1.26 0.76 account of extremely weak global cues. 4820, the level
JPY / USD 90.65 0.89
10 yrs G-sec 7.46 0.00 emanating from the trendline adjoining bottoms of
November 2009 and February 2010, is the key support
Commodity
Current %Change
now. Oil stocks will continue to be in action as after
Crude 69.7 -1.06
Gold 1170.5 -1.06
yesterday’s bold move of hike in APM gas price, a meeting
Silver 17.71 0.07
Copper 6,499.00 0.34 of EGoM is scheduled on June 7 to decide on freeing petrol
Aluminum 1946.50 -0.22
and diesel prices.
Institutional Activity
20/05/10 19/05/10 May Total
FII (Rs in Crs) -1473.7 -439 -5419.00 Today’s Pre-Market Recommendations
17/05/10 14/05/10 May Total BSE Script Range Stop- Target
MF (Rs in Crs) -43.6 -205.5 -205.50
Code Loss
US Listings 5 0 0 5 4 7 BPCL (BUY) 558-556 552.80 565, 570
Current %Change
NYSE
COMPANY NEWS
Dr Reddy 26.62 -4.4
HDFC Bank 132.91 -4.4
ICICI Bank 35.12 -3.97 Rupee dips to 14-week low against dollar
MTNL 3.46 0.87
Singapore's GDP soars 16 pc in first quarter
Patni 26.56 -3.52
Satyam 4.77 -3.62 US jobless claims unexpectedly rise last week
Sterlite 13.23 -4.61
Tata Motors 15.93 -3.9 Govt doubles price of gas by ONGC and Oil India; price of
Tata Comm 12.09 0.58 CNG may rise
WIPRO 20.15 -3.36
NASDAQ
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, And Business
I nfosys 55.18 -3.01
Line Mint Times of India
Anagram Research is also available on Bloomberg <Code ANGM> and ISI Emerging 21st May 2010
2. Ms. Viraj Shah, Economist
From the Economy Desk viraj.shah@anagram.co.in
Weekly inflation numbers remain firm at the current levels;
For the week ended 8-May 2010, inflation in the primary articles registered a YoY growth of 16.19% (16.76
%). On a weekly basis the index has declined by 0.1 % (+2.85%). The index of food articles also declined
marginally owing to a decline in the prices of wheat (2%) and fish-inland, maize and gram (1% each).
However at the same time the prices of urad and moong (2% each) and fruits & vegetables and tea (1%
each) increased fuelling concerns about the increasing price volatility in the country.
Similarly the index of non-food articles which had increased by 9.9 %(WoW) in the previous week also
declined by 0.3% in this week due to decline in the prices of raw rubber (7%), linseed (2%) and castor seed
(1%). Consequently on a YoY basis, this index has increased by 18.6% as compared to 21.2% in the
previous week. The fuel index and the minerals index remained unchanged at the current levels.
While the figures for this week do not indicate a significant jump in any of the segments, it is worth noting
that there have not been any major price declines either. Price volatility continues to be a threat and there
is no clear indication of a declining trend in any category. With the volatile global economic landscape
warranting a “cautious monetary policy stance”, the continued improvement in domestic demand and recovery
in the industrial sector is likely to further stoke inflationary pressures in the economy. Currently the only
relief stems from the fact that a normal monsoon will increase supplies of many food grains such as rice,
wheat etc thereby significantly reducing the prices of many food grains which might in turn have positive
spillover effects in certain manufacturing industries also.
Current Previous
Week Ended 8 May 2010 Week ended 1 May 2010
Index YoY WoW Index YoY WoW
Primary Articles 299.2 16.19 -0.10 299.50 16.76 2.85
(A) Food Articles 293.9 16.49 -0.03 294.00 16.44 0.85
(B)Non-Food Articles 282.1 18.68 -0.35 283.10 21.24 9.94
(C) Minerals 684.0 1.27 0.00 684.00 1.27 0.00
Fuel Power Light and Lubricants 365.3 12.33 0.00 365.30 12.33 0.05
Source: Office of Economic Adviser, Govt of India
2 21st May 2010
3. COMPANY NEWS
Rupee dips to 14-week low against dollar
The Indian rupee weakened to its lowest level in three and half months on Thursday as a broad sell-off in
emerging markets raised concern about sustained risk aversion while the dollar's gains versus majorshurt
sentiment. The partially convertible rupee closed at 46.81/82 per dollar, after hitting 46.83, its lowest since
Feb. 8, and 1 percent below its previous close of 46.36/37.
On Wednesday, the rupee had dropped 1.64 percent, its biggest single-day fall in 15 months. "The market
was choppy intraday but overall direction was very clear as risk aversion is expected to stay for a while
globally. Even other regional units were down," a senior dealer with a foreign bank in Mumbai said.
Provisional data shows foreign funds have pulled out a lot of funds, which is evident in the rupee's fall. There
is no chance the rupee won't weaken in line with other Asians, tomorrow we may trade at 47," he added.
India's main stock index nudged up 0.7 percent, a day after falling to its lowest close in two-and-a-half
months, but lingering concerns about euro zone woes kept investors wary
Singapore's GDP soars 16 pc in first quarter
Singapore revised up its first quarter economic growth to a blistering 16 percent as manufacturing, finance
andtourism roared back from last year's recession. Gross domestic product grew 15.5 percent in the first
quarter from a year earlier, up from an initial estimate last month of 13.1 percent growth, the Trade and
Industry Ministrysaid Thursday.the government in April boosted its 2010 GDP forecast to a range of 7 percent
to 9 percentfrom4.5percentto6.5percent. The economy grew at an annualized, seasonally adjusted 38.6
percent in the first quarter, the biggest leap since quarterly results began in 1975, the ministry said. The
ministry had said last month the economy expanded 32 percent in the first quarter.
US jobless claims unexpectedly rise last week
The number of US workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week
for the first time since early april government data showed on Thursday dealing a blow to the labor market
recovery. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 471,000
in the week ended May 15, the highest level since the week ended April 10, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 440,000 from the previously reported 444,000,
which was revised marginally up to 446,000 in Thursday's report. The four-week moving average of new
claims, which is considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, rose 3,000 to 453,500.
Govt doubles price of gas by ONGC and Oil India; price of CNG may rise
The government has doubled the price of natural gas produced by ONGC and Oil India from nomination
blocks that will make the fuel used in automobiles and households in Mumbai and National Capital Region of
Delhi costlier by 20-35%The government raised administered price mechanism (APM) gas price to $4.20 per
unit at par with Reliance Industries' KG-D6 gas price, discovered on the basis of market principles. The $4.2
per unit price is already approved by an empowered group of ministers.
APM gas is a term used for gas blocks awarded to state-run energy firms on nomination basis. "The price of
compressed natural gas (CNG) may increase by 20%, but will depend from city to city," said joint secretary in
the ministry of petroleum & natural gas Apurva ChandraThe impact on piped natural gas (PNG) will be
difficult to ascertain as it is linked to LPG prices, he said. CNG is used in gas-run automobiles while PNG is
used in households for cooking purpose.
3
3 21st May 2010
4. TODAY’S ECONOMIC EVENTS
Date Country Event Consensus Previous
21/05/2010 Japan BOJ Target Rate ( 21-May) - - 0.10%
Europe ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA ( MAR) - - -3.9B
Europe PMI Services ( MAY A) 55.4 55.6
Europe PMI Manufacturing ( MAY A) 57 57.6
Europe PMI Composite ( MAY A) 56.8 57.3
UK Total Business Investment(QoQ) ( 1Q P) - - -4.30%
UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) ( APR P) - - 3.60%
OPEN POSITION CALLS
Reco STOCK RECO RECOMMENDATION SL TARGET TIME CMP % Gain/ Comments
Date PRICE FRAME Loss
19/05/2010 GODREJ PROP. 535.00 BUY IN RANGE 537-534 508.00 590.00 15 DAYS 508.00 -5.05 SL
19/05/2010 AQUA LOGI 443.00 BUY IN RANGE 444-442 422.00 470.00 3-4 DAYS 438.60 -0.99 RSL
4 21st May 2010
6. BULK DEALS ON BSE
Date Scrip Name Name of Client Buy/Sell Quantity Price % Equity
20-MAY DMC INTL NAVDEEP GUPTA BUY 131175 16.06 0.60
20-MAY HENKEL INDIA VINA VIREN AHUJA BUY 730492 59.59 0.63
20-MAY HINDUSTAN TIN DEEPAK PATEL BUY 110000 133.48 1.06
BULK DEALS ON NSE
Date Scrip Name Name of Client Buy/Sell Quantity Price % Equity
20-MAY GLORY POLYFILMS L SPARROW INDIA DIVERSIFIED OPPORTU FUND I GDR SELL 130000 16.18 0.74
DISCLOSURE UNDER INSIDER TRADING
BUY SELL
Date Name of the company % of Equity Date Name of the company % of Equity
15/04/2010 BAJAJ AUTO FINANCE LTD 3.78 29/04/2010 ESSAR SHIPPING P & L LTD 10.58
29/04/2010 ESSAR SHIPPING P & L LTD 9.23 -- GREAT OFFSHORE LTD 2.67
29/04/2010 ESSAR SHIPPING P & L LTD 1.35 29/04/2010 VISA STEEL LTD 13.64
29/04/2010 VISA STEEL LTD 13.64 30/04/2010 VISA STEEL LTD 10.64
30/04/2010 VISA STEEL LTD 10.64
SUBSTANTIAL ACQUISITION OF SHARES AND TAKEOVER
Transaction Company Name Of Acquirer / Seller Acq/sale Shares Post
Date Transacted% Holding %
15/04/2010 BAJAJ AUTO FINANCE L BAJAJ HOLDINGS & INVESTMENT LTD ACQ 3.78 5.78
28/04/2010 BANK OF INDIA LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC ACQ 0.08 5.05
23/04/2010 CADILA HEALTHCARE L. LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF I ACQ 0.04 5.03
26/04/2010 DECCAN CHRONICLE HL LIFE INSURANCE CORPORATION OF I ACQ 0.07 5.05
27/04/2010 ES SAR OIL LTD. ESSAR ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD & PACS ACQ 7.17 30.1
29/04/2010 ESSAR SHIPPING P & L L. ESSAR INVESTMENTS LTD ACQ 9.23 9.4
08/04/2010 - INDIABULLS FINSERVICES PRIAPUS PROPERTIES PVT LTD & PACS ACQ 3.16 31.57
29/04/2010
19/04/2010 NIIT LTD. BLACK ROCK INVEST M (UK) L ACQ 0.21 5.06
30/04/2010 ROLTA INDIA LTD. MORGAN STANLEY MA URITIUS CO L& P ACQ 0.24 5.04
21/04/2010 SHREE A SHTAVINAYAK CV DAHLIA TRADERS PVT LTD ACQ 0.19 20.58
21/04/2010 SHREE A SHTAVINAYAK CV DAHLIA TRADERS PVT LTD & PACS ACQ 30.99
21/04/2010 SHREE A SHTAVINAYAK CV DAHLIA TRADERS PVT LTD & PACS ACQ 0.19 30.99
08/04/2010 - VARUN SHIPPING CO.LTD . VARUN CORPORATION LTD SALE 0.92 7
27/04/2010
10/02/2010 - VARUN SHIPPING CO.LTD . TARUN SHIPPING & INDUSTRIES LTD SALE 1.12 13
06/04/2010
6 21st May 2010
7. Derivative Wrap
NIFTY SNAPSHOT F & O HIGHLIGHTS
Current Previous Change
Nifty 4947.60 4919.65 0.57%
May Nifty Future 4941.05 4922.90 0.37% Nifty Future closed at 4941.05 , a Discount of 6.55
Prem/(Disc) -6.55 3.25 -9.80
OI (Rs Cr) 140508 140114 0.28%
Points. (Yesterday Premium of 3.25).
Nifty PCR (OI) 1.03 1.03 0.00
NIFTY OI PCR(May) 0.95 1.00 -0.04
Nifty PCR (VOL) 1.13 0.93 0.20 Overall Open interest in value terms increased by Rs
Overall PCR (OI) 0.40 0.41 0.00
Overall PCR (VOL) 1.09 0.90 0.18 394.50 Cr or 0.28% to Rs 1, 40,508 Cr while in
Number of share terms OI went up by 0.37% to
VOLATILITY INDEX
20/05/10 19/05/10 % Chg
242.95 Cr from 242.05 Cr shares.
India VIX 31.04 32.04 -3.12
NIFTY Future added 2.25% while FIIs net sold worth
TURNOVER DETAILS
Particular 20/05/10 19/05/10 % Chg Rs 781.06 Cr in Index futures with their OI going up
Index Futures 19366.93 25723.45 -24.71
14597 contracts indicating Short build is done by
Stock Futures 19823.99 21875.56 -9.38
Index Options 59867.88 84515.47 -29.16 them.
Stock Options 3675.28 4460.61 -17.61
Total 102734.08 136575.09 -24.78
Among the stocks long build up is seen in GAIL,
NIFTY MAY CALL PIRHEALTH, BHARATFORGE, GLAXO, ONMOBILE to
Strike 20/05/10 IV (%)
Price +/-in contracts TODAY YEST
name a few. On the other hand Short build up is
4900 +5539 22.5 27.2 seen in HOTEL LEELA, TATA POWER and PANTALOON
5100 -4660 22.2 25.8
5200 -6362 21.5 25.7
5300 -11176 24.3 27.0 Nifty OI PCR remain unchanged to 1.03. On the back
of call addition at 4900 level indicating on the upside
NIFTY MAY PUT Nifty is likely to find strong resistance around 4980-
Strike 20/05/10 IV (%)
5000 level. On the other hand on the lower side Nifty
Price +/-in contracts TODAY YEST
4600 +6400 33.5 35.3 is likely to find support in the vicinity of 4800-4850
4800 -10748 30.4 32.2
level, the level (4900) which consists of second
5000 -29325 29.0 29.6
5100 -13535 28.3 28.3 highest OI among the Nifty put options.
Securities in Ban For Trade Date 21-May-2010,BALRAMCHIN,FORTIS & ABAN
7
7 21st May 2010
8. NIFTY OPTION MAY OI DISTRIBUTION
7500
CallPut
7000
6500
6000
Open Interest in '000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4600 4700 4800 4900 5000 5100 5200 5300 5400
Str ike Price
FII Activity on 20-May 2010
Buy Sell Open Interest
Contracts Value(Rs Cr) Contracts Value(Rs Cr) NET(Rs) Contracts Values (Cr.)
INDEX FUTURES 142137 3514.41 173864 4295.47 -781.06 587029 14464.33
INDEX OPTIONS 221416 5448.42 233625 5798.38 -349.96 1937832 47908.62
STOCK FUTURES 117225 3552.03 88757 2664.26 887.77 1045752 29196.29
STOCK OPTIONS 7396 283.58 6971 261.94 21.64 49974 1495.38
-221.61
FII OI
Date Index Future Index Option Stock Future Stock Option
20-May 587029 1937832 1045752 49974
19-May 572432 1944497 1051930 46794
Cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position in the derivative segment, as May 19 ,
2010 is 33.97%
FORTHCOMING CORPORATE ACTION
Company Name Ex-Date Purpose Div (Rs.)
STER 19/05/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 3.75
RELINFRA 19/05/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 7.10
AXIS BANK 20/05/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 12.00
IOB 26/05/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 3.50
INFOSYTCH 26/05/2010 DIVIDEND Rs 15.00
ANDHRA BANK 03/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 5.00
INDIANBANK 07/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 4.00
SBI 09/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 20.00
HDFCBANK 10/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs 12.00
ICICI BANK 10/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs 12.00
PATNI 14/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 3.00
JSWSTEEL 14/06/2010 DIVIDEND Rs. 9.50
8 21st May 2010
11. For Further Details
- Avinash Gorakshakar - Head Research
Tel.: -91-22-42198100
Email: avinash.gorakshakar@anagram.co.in
RATING INTERPRETATION :
BUY Expected to appreciate more than 20% over a 12-month period
Accumulate Expected to appreciate up to 20% over a 12-month period
Neutral Expected to remain in a narrow range
SELL Expected to depreciate more than 10% over a 12-month period
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11
11 21st May 2010
