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A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035

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Keynote speech given to the "Climate Leadership- Solutions for the Wine Industry" conference in Porto, Portugal, March 2019, by Professor Kimberly Nicholas, Lund University

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A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035

  1. 1. Image:MarkVogel Kimberly Nicholas, PhD Lund University Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS) @KA_Nicholas kimnicholas.com A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035
  2. 2. @KA_Nicholas http://www.kimnicholas.com/climate-science-101.html
  3. 3. Image:MarkVogel Climate change threatens the future of wine (and life on Earth) @KA_Nicholas 15 years of wine & climate research: http://www.kimnicholas.com/wine-climate--sustainability.html
  4. 4. Wine quality depends on climate Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American @KA_Nicholas Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American In optimal conditions, ripening is matched to climate and other conditions
  5. 5. Climate change disrupts wine quality Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American @KA_Nicholas Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American
  6. 6. Image:MarkVogel Climate adaptation strategy: Avoid changes we can’t manage Manage changes we can’t avoid @KA_Nicholas
  7. 7. Options for climate adaptation Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change Short-term Long-term @KA_Nicholas
  8. 8. Expanding/moving vineyard areas not sustainable Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change Short-term Long-term @KA_Nicholas
  9. 9. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas *Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
  10. 10. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas Consider diversifying varieties as one climate adaptation strategy *Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
  11. 11. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas * Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris Look to diverse areas for possible new varieties
  12. 12. Use wine diversity to increase resilience Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change @KA_Nicholas Missing opportunities to adapt winegrape variety to local climate 12 int’l varieties 103 other varieties
  13. 13. We have a choice between two different worlds Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change We fix it! low emissions <2C° Temperature (°C) change by 2070 @KA_Nicholas Protected geographical indications
  14. 14. Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change We don’t fix it High emissions 4°C Temperature (°C) change by 2070 Temperature (°C) change by 2070 We have a choice between two different worlds @KA_Nicholas We fix it! low emissions <2C°
  15. 15. What kind of world do you want to live in? Image: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007, Science @KA_Nicholas My summary of the latest science: 2°C warming is not safe More warming = more risks to people, economy, nature The faster we reduce carbon emissions to zero, the safer and richer we’ll be, and the more beauty and good wine will be left for us & all future generations! (My plain-language summary of IPCC 1.5° report, in 59 tweets: kimnicholas.com/climate-policy.html)
  16. 16. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 1. Support science-based targets for the wine industry compatible with <1.5°C global warming 2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain 3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas
  17. 17. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 1. Support science-based targets for the wine industry compatible with <1.5°C global warming @KA_Nicholas
  18. 18. Emissions pathway to stay below 1.5°C warming: must plummet towards zero @KA_Nicholas Source: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/stylised-pathways-to-well-below-2c • Rapid transition away from coal, oil, & gas • Reduced animal agriculture • Increase carbon in soils and vegetation
  19. 19. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain • Fossil-free by 2030 • ≥85% reduction in GHGs by 2035 • Cut first 50% by 2025 • Cut next 50% by 2030 • Cut next 50% 2035 @KA_Nicholas
  20. 20. Aim for zero emissions across supply chain @KA_Nicholas FIVS International Wine Greenhouse Gas Protocol 27/27 Joint Ownership of Vineyard, Winery and Bottling The following diagram describes the entity that owns only vineyard, winery and bottling operations. Figure 7: Vineyard, Winery and Bottling Centre Process Boundaries Scope 2 Indirect Emissions Scope 1 Direct Emissions Scope 3 Indirect Emissions Purchased Electricity Stationary Fuel Use Water Heaters Frost Fighting Equipment Boilers Electrical Power Generation Heat Generation Mobile Fuel Use Tractors 4wd Motor Bikes Trucks Forklifts Cars Harvesters Tillage and Vineyard Practices Permanent Row Cropping† Marc Incorporation† N2O Emissions (Fertiliser and Soil) Soil Carbon Incorporation† Vine Photosynthesis Sequestration into Fruit Sequestration into current Growth Sequestration in Woody Material† Degradation and Compositing of Vines Winery Processing Related Primary Fermentation Direct CO2 Use Fugitive Emissions HFC Refrigeration Methane from Stationary Combustion Waste Disposal Vineyard Waste Winery Waste - Solid - Liquid Packaging Waste Extraction and Production of Purchased Materials Fertilizers Wine Additives Juice, Spirit, Concentrate Grapes and Bulk Wine Oak or oak related products Bentonite Tartaric Acid Packaging Material - Glass - PET - Tetra Pack - Closures - Fibre Packaging - Wooden Packaging Transport Related Activities Hired Helicopters Fuel Use Business Travel Truck Rail or Ship Transport of Grapes if Machinery not owned by the Vineyard or Winery Transport of Wine to Bottling Location if moved in equipment not owned by the company Transport of Wine to point of wholesale in market Electrical Transmission and Distribution Losses Waste Disposal Solid Waste Disposal, if done Off Site Waste Water Disposal, if done Off Site 1. ALIGNMENTWITH RECOGNIZED PROTOCOLS Beverage Container Raw Materials Production Packaging Warehousing Distribution Consumption Disposal Beverage Ingredient Raw Materials Indirect Energy Inputs Indirect Energy Inputs Scope1 Scope2 Scope3 Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable, 2010
  21. 21. Carbon footprint of wine @KA_Nicholas PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
  22. 22. Priorities to reduce wine’s carbon footprint @KA_Nicholas Optimize inputs & nitrogen management Energy efficiency & renewable energy Lightweight & alternative packaging Switch from truck & air to rail & ship transport; fossil free PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
  23. 23. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas
  24. 24. Six key areas for climate leadership http://www.mission2020.global/ @KA_Nicholas 24 Check investment carbon footprint:
  25. 25. Top 10% income individuals = 45% global climate pollution @KA_Nicholas Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m; ca. 65 tons each,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change Top 10%, current emissions: Chancel & Piketty, 2015 USA Current average: W Europe Global
  26. 26. High-flyers need to rethink our lifestyles to avoid dangerous climate change @KA_Nicholas High-impact actions: Wynes & Nicholas, 2017, Environmental Research Letters 1.5°C budget: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2019, 1.5° Lifestyles Report 1.5°C budget: 2.5 tCO2e/year By 2030 Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change Car-free Electric car Renewable energy (Zero-carbon homes) Plant- based diet Flying much less USA Current average: W Europe Global
  27. 27. Wine industry leadership can be critical to a safe climate future @KA_Nicholas Photo: https://www.winecountry.com.au/• Adapt existing vineyards to changes we can’t avoid • Avoid changes we can’t manage by leading on emissions reductions: • Commit to targets compatible with <1.5°C global warming • Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain (85% reduction by 2035) • Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life

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