A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035
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Keynote speech given to the "Climate Leadership- Solutions for the Wine Industry" conference in Porto, Portugal, March 2019, by Professor Kimberly Nicholas, Lund University
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A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035
- 1. Image:MarkVogel Kimberly Nicholas, PhD Lund University Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS) @KA_Nicholas kimnicholas.com A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035
- 3. Image:MarkVogel Climate change threatens the future of wine (and life on Earth) @KA_Nicholas 15 years of wine & climate research: http://www.kimnicholas.com/wine-climate--sustainability.html
- 4. Wine quality depends on climate Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American @KA_Nicholas Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American In optimal conditions, ripening is matched to climate and other conditions
- 5. Climate change disrupts wine quality Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American @KA_Nicholas Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American
- 6. Image:MarkVogel Climate adaptation strategy: Avoid changes we can’t manage Manage changes we can’t avoid @KA_Nicholas
- 7. Options for climate adaptation Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change Short-term Long-term @KA_Nicholas
- 8. Expanding/moving vineyard areas not sustainable Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change Short-term Long-term @KA_Nicholas
- 9. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas *Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
- 10. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas Consider diversifying varieties as one climate adaptation strategy *Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris
- 11. >80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change • Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide @KA_Nicholas * Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris Look to diverse areas for possible new varieties
- 12. Use wine diversity to increase resilience Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change @KA_Nicholas Missing opportunities to adapt winegrape variety to local climate 12 int’l varieties 103 other varieties
- 13. We have a choice between two different worlds Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change We fix it! low emissions <2C° Temperature (°C) change by 2070 @KA_Nicholas Protected geographical indications
- 14. Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change We don’t fix it High emissions 4°C Temperature (°C) change by 2070 Temperature (°C) change by 2070 We have a choice between two different worlds @KA_Nicholas We fix it! low emissions <2C°
- 15. What kind of world do you want to live in? Image: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007, Science @KA_Nicholas My summary of the latest science: 2°C warming is not safe More warming = more risks to people, economy, nature The faster we reduce carbon emissions to zero, the safer and richer we’ll be, and the more beauty and good wine will be left for us & all future generations! (My plain-language summary of IPCC 1.5° report, in 59 tweets: kimnicholas.com/climate-policy.html)
- 16. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 1. Support science-based targets for the wine industry compatible with <1.5°C global warming 2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain 3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas
- 17. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 1. Support science-based targets for the wine industry compatible with <1.5°C global warming @KA_Nicholas
- 18. Emissions pathway to stay below 1.5°C warming: must plummet towards zero @KA_Nicholas Source: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/stylised-pathways-to-well-below-2c • Rapid transition away from coal, oil, & gas • Reduced animal agriculture • Increase carbon in soils and vegetation
- 19. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain • Fossil-free by 2030 • ≥85% reduction in GHGs by 2035 • Cut first 50% by 2025 • Cut next 50% by 2030 • Cut next 50% 2035 @KA_Nicholas
- 20. Aim for zero emissions across supply chain @KA_Nicholas FIVS International Wine Greenhouse Gas Protocol 27/27 Joint Ownership of Vineyard, Winery and Bottling The following diagram describes the entity that owns only vineyard, winery and bottling operations. Figure 7: Vineyard, Winery and Bottling Centre Process Boundaries Scope 2 Indirect Emissions Scope 1 Direct Emissions Scope 3 Indirect Emissions Purchased Electricity Stationary Fuel Use Water Heaters Frost Fighting Equipment Boilers Electrical Power Generation Heat Generation Mobile Fuel Use Tractors 4wd Motor Bikes Trucks Forklifts Cars Harvesters Tillage and Vineyard Practices Permanent Row Cropping† Marc Incorporation† N2O Emissions (Fertiliser and Soil) Soil Carbon Incorporation† Vine Photosynthesis Sequestration into Fruit Sequestration into current Growth Sequestration in Woody Material† Degradation and Compositing of Vines Winery Processing Related Primary Fermentation Direct CO2 Use Fugitive Emissions HFC Refrigeration Methane from Stationary Combustion Waste Disposal Vineyard Waste Winery Waste - Solid - Liquid Packaging Waste Extraction and Production of Purchased Materials Fertilizers Wine Additives Juice, Spirit, Concentrate Grapes and Bulk Wine Oak or oak related products Bentonite Tartaric Acid Packaging Material - Glass - PET - Tetra Pack - Closures - Fibre Packaging - Wooden Packaging Transport Related Activities Hired Helicopters Fuel Use Business Travel Truck Rail or Ship Transport of Grapes if Machinery not owned by the Vineyard or Winery Transport of Wine to Bottling Location if moved in equipment not owned by the company Transport of Wine to point of wholesale in market Electrical Transmission and Distribution Losses Waste Disposal Solid Waste Disposal, if done Off Site Waste Water Disposal, if done Off Site 1. ALIGNMENTWITH RECOGNIZED PROTOCOLS Beverage Container Raw Materials Production Packaging Warehousing Distribution Consumption Disposal Beverage Ingredient Raw Materials Indirect Energy Inputs Indirect Energy Inputs Scope1 Scope2 Scope3 Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable, 2010
- 21. Carbon footprint of wine @KA_Nicholas PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
- 22. Priorities to reduce wine’s carbon footprint @KA_Nicholas Optimize inputs & nitrogen management Energy efficiency & renewable energy Lightweight & alternative packaging Switch from truck & air to rail & ship transport; fossil free PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”
- 23. Image:MarkVogel My vision for climate leadership in the wine industry 3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas
- 24. Six key areas for climate leadership http://www.mission2020.global/ @KA_Nicholas 24 Check investment carbon footprint:
- 25. Top 10% income individuals = 45% global climate pollution @KA_Nicholas Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m; ca. 65 tons each,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change Top 10%, current emissions: Chancel & Piketty, 2015 USA Current average: W Europe Global
- 26. High-flyers need to rethink our lifestyles to avoid dangerous climate change @KA_Nicholas High-impact actions: Wynes & Nicholas, 2017, Environmental Research Letters 1.5°C budget: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2019, 1.5° Lifestyles Report 1.5°C budget: 2.5 tCO2e/year By 2030 Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change Car-free Electric car Renewable energy (Zero-carbon homes) Plant- based diet Flying much less USA Current average: W Europe Global
- 27. Wine industry leadership can be critical to a safe climate future @KA_Nicholas Photo: https://www.winecountry.com.au/• Adapt existing vineyards to changes we can’t avoid • Avoid changes we can’t manage by leading on emissions reductions: • Commit to targets compatible with <1.5°C global warming • Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain (85% reduction by 2035) • Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life
Notas del editor
- For me wine is both a personal and a professional interest This is my family’s vineyard in Sonoma, California Inspiration for studying winegrowing Sense of place
- Make sure we all share the basic understanding of what science tells us about climate change It’s these 5 things, which I’ve been using to teach climate change for most of the last decade Made the rounds on social media for my footnoted protest sign at the American Geophysical Union meeting shortly after the 2016 US elections I’ve spent a lot of my research career documenting how climate change is bad for agriculture, especially winegrowing, I’ll share some of that with you here My focus now, like many scientists and many of you in this room, is on the urgent need to fix it, and how we can fix it, so I’ll share with you my vision for how the wine industry can help fix climate change here today.
- Already now, and more so in the future: Here’s how climate affects wine quality As ripen, sugars acucmulate and acids are lost Sugars will ferment into alcohol Acids provide crisp refreshing taste Color comes from accumulation of pigment called anthocyanin Flavor is complex, more than 1000 aroma compounds identified in wine Most of the aroma and flavor building blocks we enjoy in wine come from the grape, born in the vyd- compounds are sensitive to temperature Under ideal conditions, most accumulate in the last period before harvest, sensitive time
- Warming climate shifts back sugar ripening, but flavor and color ripening don’t keep up Tough choices in the vineyard
- Looked at responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses Tried to understand their adaptation options and how they were using them. Temp change on X, difficulty and expense on Y. Different adaptation actions to climate change buy you different amounts of adaptiveness, of effectiveness. There are some simple and cheap things that can be done in the winery and vineyard that will buy you some adaptation. As you go up to changing actions at planting (usually once every 30 years in CA) or finding new locations, much more expensive and difficult. Found that there were 4 levels, from short-term and relatively cheap to more long term and expensive, but effective If we look at the X axis here, with more temp change, more dramatic, or a combination of more different elements, will be required.
- Looked at responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses Tried to understand their adaptation options and how they were using them. Temp change on X, difficulty and expense on Y. Different adaptation actions to climate change buy you different amounts of adaptiveness, of effectiveness. There are some simple and cheap things that can be done in the winery and vineyard that will buy you some adaptation. As you go up to changing actions at planting (usually once every 30 years in CA) or finding new locations, much more expensive and difficult. Found that there were 4 levels, from short-term and relatively cheap to more long term and expensive, but effective If we look at the X axis here, with more temp change, more dramatic, or a combination of more different elements, will be required.
- Another adaptation option is
- At a larger scale: look at the diversity of varieties planted
- At a larger scale: look at the diversity of varieties planted
- Fig. 4 | Variation across varieties in two traits relevant for climate change. Variation in the fruit ripening phenology (left) of the 12 international varieties versus a sample of 103 other varieties, maturity measured as weeks from when a reference variety (Chasselas) reached maturity (data from INRA Domaine de Vassal Grape Collection), and the leaf water use efficiency (ratio of water used versus lost, right) of seven international varieties versus 16 local varieties (from Balearic Islands, Spain, reported by ref. 52). In many regions growers will need later-ripening grapes with higher water use efficiencies with climate change, yet the data here show that international varieties are skewed towards earlier ripening and lower water use efficiencies. Values for two of the most planted varieties—Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon—are shown; on right they are shown by only one arrow because their values only differ by 0.1.
- Choice: a world where we fix it, by kicking into action and rapidly cutting our climate pollution. This map shows winegrowing regions with protected geographical indications, where certain varieties are part of the nature of that region This level of temperature change still presents challenges, but adaptation is feasible
- In the other world, one that the majority of the world’s population alive today will live to see, We continue high emissions of greenhouse gases, and we fail to fix climate change We have scientific predictions for all the disasters that would happen in this world, but it’s hard to find words to describe how catastrophic a 4° world would be. I think it’s safe to say there is not a good future for wine under 4° of warming, but at that point, that may not be the biggest of our worries. We would not recognize Planet Earth under 4° of warming I don’t think it’s a world compatible with civilization or democracy 4° is a world those of us who are alive today must do what it takes to avoid. And we are the ones who have to act.
- We have already warmed the world about 1°C today, and we already can see and feel and measure the impacts The latest science shows us that further warming is increasingly dangerous. It’s not accurate to treat 2° of warming as safe. For some sensitive systems, like coral reefs, above 1.5°C is fatal, and for all systems- human, economic, natural- more warming means more risks. So how do we avoid slime world? What is needed to maintain a planet where coral reefs and wine and humans can thrive?