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Clustering of unhealthy behaviours
over time: implications for policy
and practice

David Buck and Francesca Frosini
The King’s Fund
The number of multiple lifestyles has
increasing impact on health




Source: EPIC-Norfolk cancer studies

      ...but more on mortality than reported quality of life.
Research, policy and practice questions


 What has been happening over time?
  – How has the distribution of multiple risk factors changed?
  – Have multiple risk factors been polarising between socio-economic groups?


 What might this mean for policy?
  – Looking beyond single issue behaviour strategies
  – Design of incentives and guidance such as public health tariffs, Quality
    Outcomes Framework, the Public Health Outcomes Framework and NICE
    public health guidance


 What might this mean for practice?
  – Are we wasting resources and increasing resistance by hitting the same
    people with separate interventions and messages?
  – Joint Strategic Needs Assessments, joint strategies, how to reap the health
    premium cost-effectively, role of health and wellbeing board partners?
What we did


 Cross-sectional analysis of the Health Survey for England
 2003 and 2008
  – Adult sample (>=16), 14,607 individuals in 2003 and 14,912 in 2008
  – Four key risk factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and
    vegetable consumption and physical activity levels
  – Based on whether meeting government guidelines



 Analysis of
  – Changes in prevalence over time
  – Whether changes in prevalence are related to socio-economic position,
    education, gender or age
We found real improvements over time




 Consistent with movements ‘down ladder’
  – Shedding three and four risky behaviours, maintaining one and two
  – Overall about a 20% drop in three+ behaviours for men and women
  – But, 70% of the population still have at least two risky behaviours
Within this there are 16 possible risk factor
combinations

               Combinations of risk factors in 2003, by gender




        Note: S=Smoking; D=Drinking; F= Fruit & Vegetable; P=Physical activity; 0 = no risk factors
We found significant changes over time in
some of these combinations...
      Change in prevalence of combinations of multiple lifestyle risk factors
                       between 2003 and 2008 by gender
             Percentage point change in prevalence btw 2003 -2008   4.0

                                                                    3.0

                                                                    2.0

                                                                                                                                                                       *
                                                                    1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                     **
                                                                                                                                     *                                        *
                                                                                                                                                                **
                                                                    0.0
                                                                                  **             * **                                       *
                                                                           **
                                                                    -1.0

                                                                                                                                                                              Men
                                                                    -2.0
                                                                                                                                                                              Women
                                                                    -3.0

                                                                    -4.0
                                                                                                                      SdFp




                                                                                                                                                         Sdfp
                                                                                                                             SdfP


                                                                                                                                           sDfP
                                                                                                SdFP
                                                                                                        sDFP




                                                                                                                                                                sDfp
                                                                                                                                    sDFp




                                                                                                                                                                              sdfP
                                                                                                                                                  sdFP




                                                                                                                                                                       sdFp
                                                                                  SDFp




                                                                                                               SDfp
                                                                                         SDfP
                                                                           SDFP




                                                                                                       Combinations of lifestyle risk factors
    Note: S=Smoking; D=Drinking; F= Fruit&Vegetable; P=Physical activity; Capital letters= presence of risk factor;
    * = significant change
...but improvements come from some sectors
of the population and not others

    Change in prevalence of multiple lifestyle risk factors between 2003 and 2008
            for men in professionals and unskilled manual households
             110

             100
                        4      *                        4     *                     4
              90

              80         3      *                       3     *                     3

              70

              60

              50
                                                        2                           2
                         2
              40

              30

              20
                                *                       1         *
              10         1                                                          1        *

               0         0         *                    0         *                 0
                   2003 - All pop 2008 - All pop      2003 -        2008 -        2003-           2008
                                                   Professionals Professionals   Unskilled       Unskilled
A public health success story with a worrying
twist

 A real improvement in multiple health behaviours
  – In 2003, about one in three of us weren’t adhering to government
    guidelines on three or four of the behaviours – this had dropped to
    about one in four of us by 2008


 Most of the improvement came from higher socio-economic
 and educated groups
  – Poorer groups saw little improvement, widening relative inequalities, ie,
    people with no qualifications were more than five times as likely as
    those with higher education to engage in all four unhealthy behaviours
    in 2008, compared to three times as likely in 2003


 ‘Improving the health of the poorest fastest’?
  – Putting this right will be required if one of the coalition’s own criteria for
    the success of its reforms is to be met
Implications for policy


  Single behaviour approaches are necessary, but are they
  sufficient?
  – An approach based on people as well as ‘issues’
  – Case for more targeted public health policies
  – Little current integration between public health and inequalities policy


  Public health and NHS reform
  – Multiple behaviours in the Public Health Outcomes Framework,
    informing the health premium, Quality Outcomes Framework and
    design of behaviour tariffs?
  – Research and guidance on multiple behaviour change from NIHR, PHE
    and NICE
Implications for practice


  Health and wellbeing boards
  – Most local areas undertake similar surveys, re-analysis on these lines
    will tell them what:
     • they need to prioritise in their Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy
     • local authorities should take into account in their new public health
         role
     • the NHS should prioritise as it rolls out ‘Every Contact Counts’


  Services
  – The development of wellness services
  – Role of health trainers and community health champions
  – Training for staff delivering interventions
But, we need to know more

 Pushing the analysis further
  – Correlation with other behaviours and mental health
  – Longitudinal analysis, to assess the impact of life events
  – Understanding role of social capital, norms and networks


 In order to intervene successfully we need to know
  – If having multiple risks makes behaviour change easier or harder?
  – Is it more effective to tackle risks in sequence or in tandem?
  – From a population health perspective, should there be a focus on one
    risk rather than another?
  – How cost effective are different approaches to multiple risk from a
    commissioner’s perspective?

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Clustering of unhealthy behaviours over time: implications for policy and practice

  • 1. Clustering of unhealthy behaviours over time: implications for policy and practice David Buck and Francesca Frosini The King’s Fund
  • 2. The number of multiple lifestyles has increasing impact on health Source: EPIC-Norfolk cancer studies ...but more on mortality than reported quality of life.
  • 3. Research, policy and practice questions What has been happening over time? – How has the distribution of multiple risk factors changed? – Have multiple risk factors been polarising between socio-economic groups? What might this mean for policy? – Looking beyond single issue behaviour strategies – Design of incentives and guidance such as public health tariffs, Quality Outcomes Framework, the Public Health Outcomes Framework and NICE public health guidance What might this mean for practice? – Are we wasting resources and increasing resistance by hitting the same people with separate interventions and messages? – Joint Strategic Needs Assessments, joint strategies, how to reap the health premium cost-effectively, role of health and wellbeing board partners?
  • 4. What we did Cross-sectional analysis of the Health Survey for England 2003 and 2008 – Adult sample (>=16), 14,607 individuals in 2003 and 14,912 in 2008 – Four key risk factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity levels – Based on whether meeting government guidelines Analysis of – Changes in prevalence over time – Whether changes in prevalence are related to socio-economic position, education, gender or age
  • 5. We found real improvements over time Consistent with movements ‘down ladder’ – Shedding three and four risky behaviours, maintaining one and two – Overall about a 20% drop in three+ behaviours for men and women – But, 70% of the population still have at least two risky behaviours
  • 6. Within this there are 16 possible risk factor combinations Combinations of risk factors in 2003, by gender Note: S=Smoking; D=Drinking; F= Fruit & Vegetable; P=Physical activity; 0 = no risk factors
  • 7. We found significant changes over time in some of these combinations... Change in prevalence of combinations of multiple lifestyle risk factors between 2003 and 2008 by gender Percentage point change in prevalence btw 2003 -2008 4.0 3.0 2.0 * 1.0 ** * * ** 0.0 ** * ** * ** -1.0 Men -2.0 Women -3.0 -4.0 SdFp Sdfp SdfP sDfP SdFP sDFP sDfp sDFp sdfP sdFP sdFp SDFp SDfp SDfP SDFP Combinations of lifestyle risk factors Note: S=Smoking; D=Drinking; F= Fruit&Vegetable; P=Physical activity; Capital letters= presence of risk factor; * = significant change
  • 8. ...but improvements come from some sectors of the population and not others Change in prevalence of multiple lifestyle risk factors between 2003 and 2008 for men in professionals and unskilled manual households 110 100 4 * 4 * 4 90 80 3 * 3 * 3 70 60 50 2 2 2 40 30 20 * 1 * 10 1 1 * 0 0 * 0 * 0 2003 - All pop 2008 - All pop 2003 - 2008 - 2003- 2008 Professionals Professionals Unskilled Unskilled
  • 9. A public health success story with a worrying twist A real improvement in multiple health behaviours – In 2003, about one in three of us weren’t adhering to government guidelines on three or four of the behaviours – this had dropped to about one in four of us by 2008 Most of the improvement came from higher socio-economic and educated groups – Poorer groups saw little improvement, widening relative inequalities, ie, people with no qualifications were more than five times as likely as those with higher education to engage in all four unhealthy behaviours in 2008, compared to three times as likely in 2003 ‘Improving the health of the poorest fastest’? – Putting this right will be required if one of the coalition’s own criteria for the success of its reforms is to be met
  • 10. Implications for policy Single behaviour approaches are necessary, but are they sufficient? – An approach based on people as well as ‘issues’ – Case for more targeted public health policies – Little current integration between public health and inequalities policy Public health and NHS reform – Multiple behaviours in the Public Health Outcomes Framework, informing the health premium, Quality Outcomes Framework and design of behaviour tariffs? – Research and guidance on multiple behaviour change from NIHR, PHE and NICE
  • 11. Implications for practice Health and wellbeing boards – Most local areas undertake similar surveys, re-analysis on these lines will tell them what: • they need to prioritise in their Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy • local authorities should take into account in their new public health role • the NHS should prioritise as it rolls out ‘Every Contact Counts’ Services – The development of wellness services – Role of health trainers and community health champions – Training for staff delivering interventions
  • 12. But, we need to know more Pushing the analysis further – Correlation with other behaviours and mental health – Longitudinal analysis, to assess the impact of life events – Understanding role of social capital, norms and networks In order to intervene successfully we need to know – If having multiple risks makes behaviour change easier or harder? – Is it more effective to tackle risks in sequence or in tandem? – From a population health perspective, should there be a focus on one risk rather than another? – How cost effective are different approaches to multiple risk from a commissioner’s perspective?