This document discusses various uncertainties that must be managed in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. It notes that while certainty is rare, it is certain there will be surprises. It argues uncertainties are more manageable with trust, efficiency/resilience tradeoffs, shifts in approaches, and new rules for assessing blame. It also examines differences between resistance and resilience, static versus adaptive resilience, and resilience of structures versus systems.

1. Uncertainties
that
must
be
managed
in
DRR
and
CCA
P.
H.
Longstaff
Syracuse
University
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

2. Which
uncertainties?
• Certainty
is
rare
• It
is
certain
that
there
will
be
surprises
• “Disaster”
(without
a
guiding
star)
• UncertainHes
more
manageable
with:
•
Trust
• Efficiency/resilience
tradeoffs
• Regime
shiOs
• New
rules
for
the
Blame
Game
• What
does
resilience
mean?
To
us
?
To
them?
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

3. Resilience
Gone
Mustang

5. We
do
need
to
know
Interests/Goals
(theirs
and
ours)
• Resistance
(The
Citadel)
• Stop
the
surprise(s)
• Tendency
to
fail
catastrophically
• Trust
high
unHl
failure
• Resilience
(Surviving
to
operate
another
day)
• StaHc:
Bouncing
back
–
return
to
“normal”
• AdapHve:
Bouncing
forward
• Trust
built
and
reinforced
oOen
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

6. Resilience
of
wall
or
assets?

7. Disaster
Cooperation
requires
trust
• Necessary
(but
not
necessarily
sufficient)
Robert
Aexelrod
• Long-­‐term
relaHonship
• Frequent
contact
with
opportunity
to
cheat/cooperate
• Recognize
other’s
agents
and
interests
• InsHtuHonal
memory
to
keep
track
of
cheaHng
(e.g.,
corrupHon)
and
cooperaHng
• Maybe
industry
or
government
or
NGO
• Between
• Donor
and
Donor
• Donor
and
Recipient
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

8. EfDiciency
v.
Resilience
“The
thicker
the
hay,
the
easier
it
is
mowed!”

9.
Regime
Shifts
• Regime
A
(SOP)
• Regime
B
(disaster
plans)
• Regime
C
(everybody
for
themselves
or
a
guiding
star)
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

10. Some
current
research
efforts
for
resilience
• NSF:
Microscope
v.
Kaleidoscope
• Defining,
Measuring
and
PredicHng
• Trusted
sources
of
informaHon
• CiHzens
as
assets
• CiHzen
Sensors
then
and
now
• CiHzens
as
responders/organizers:
Panic
or
partner
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

11. On
the
cutting
edge:
Adaptive
regulation/management
• For
crisis
• Empowering
Improvisa;on:
human
and
technical
• For
creeping
disasters:
Set
up
sensors
that
indicate
when
• adapHve
mechanisms
are
failing
(e.g.
Challenges
cascade)
• Hpping
points
are
near
• buffers/reserves
are
near
exhausHon
RUSI
P.H.
Longstaff
2014

12. Heroes
of
Resilience
• Combine
an
awareness
of
common
paderns
with
an
acute
adenHon
to
the
specific
circumstances
of
a
unique
situaHon.
• David
Brooks
NYT
28
May
2013
• Understand
that
they
don’t
know
it
all
–
humility.
• Know
how
to
set
goals
that
can
accommodate
all
definiHons
of
resilience:
tolerance.
• Know
that
they
may
fail
and
accept
it
as
a
temporary
set-­‐back.
TranslaHng
Resilience
Longstaff,
Koslowski,
&
Geoghegan
2013