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How to Measure and Grow Return on Marketing Investment across Markets and Marketing Actions Professor dr. Koen Pauwels Ozyegin University, Istanbul Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth
Why measure Return on Marketing Investment ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How to Measure ROMI ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Limitations of Experimentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long-term Response Modeling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long-term modeling challenges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Vector-Autoregressive Models ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long-term sales response model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long-term Marketing Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Price deal yields positive consumer response, but lowers future sales, especially if competitors react
Discount ‘works’, so firm repeats
Worst case: each time you promote  it hurts your bottom line
Best case: permanent  benefits through consumer trial and learning
Profitable Growth Conditions Mature Markets Changing Markets Campaign Marketing   Business-as-Usual FMCG promotions Pharma advertising Permanent Benefit Automobiles Product innovation Changing Marketing Escalation Automobiles  Price Rebates Evolving Business Medical Services  Detailing
Journal Advertising Works Right Away, then dies out
Direct-to-Consumer ads show Wear-in and Wear-out
What is the Best that could Happen?
One-shot innovation increases Honda’s Firm Value  Forever
Long-Term ROI Varies by  Segment and Firm 0 50 100 150 200 250 Cars Trucks Minivans & SUVs ROI in $ Millions Toyota Daimler-Chrysler General Motors Ford
And by Innovation Level
In Contrast, Rebates Decrease Firm Value in the long run
As They lead to Competitive Escalation
Finally, are some Actions Needed to Maintain Sales ?
How to Grow ROMI ? Mature Markets Changing Markets Marketing Campaigns  Continue to create better campaigns Focus and be ready to handle growth Changing marketing Allocate $ to other marketing actions Ensure marketing spending keeps up with sales
Help Managers Drive Growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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