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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
             February, 2013
                     Sucheet Gupte - Director
        open pause




 Text
European Market Trends
Text




       • Loan issuance was €7.5B in January 2013, while high yield
         issuance was €7.1B.

       • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €1.34B for the four
         weeks ending January 30th. Inflows for all of 2012 now stands
         €7.86B or almost 8 billion euros.

       • Secondary markets are up.
         Leveraged loan markets went up 208 bps to finish the month at 99.42.
          High yield markets are down 31 bps to finish the month at 102.64.

       • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up
          1.18%.


       • Default rates fell lower during the month.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99
                                                      Text
     97


      96


      94


          93


          91

               1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102

                                            Text
     98


      94


      89


          85


          81

               1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13
.     Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return
    2.5%
                                          January 2013:    + 1.18%
                          Text            December 2012:   + 0.72%
                                          January 2012:    + 2.59%
    1.9%




    1.2%




    0.6%




    -0.1%
        12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13

.     Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds
            15
                                                         HY bonds
                                     Text                Loans

            11
                                                                                               €7.1B
€billions




             8



                                                                                               €7.5B
             4




             0
             11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count


    16%                                                         16%


    13%                                                        13%


    10%                                                        10%



    6%                                                       Text
                                                                6%



    3%                                                         3%



    0%                                                         0%
      2/09        2/10        2/11        12/11       1/13       2/09   2/10      12/11         2/12    1/13

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Themes to watch for
Text




  • Strong inflows into HY funds result in strong demand for HY issuers.


  • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace. The vast majority of January’s
     borrowers took advantage of HY market liquidity to refi existing debt, raising €5B
     of new bonds specifically for this purpose. Half of this paper was used to term-out
     loan maturities into bonds, the highest monthly tally since February 2012.


• Peripheral issuers continue to access HY markets. Some have made their tax
   regimes far more amenable for issuers than before.


• Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A, provided there are no
   unexpected shocks to the system. There has already been a large loan and high yield
   offering for Liberty’s acquisition of Virgin Media.
Text
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February 2013, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. out Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update February, 2013 Sucheet Gupte - Director open pause Text
  • 2. European Market Trends Text • Loan issuance was €7.5B in January 2013, while high yield issuance was €7.1B. • Estimated inflows into HY funds were €1.34B for the four weeks ending January 30th. Inflows for all of 2012 now stands €7.86B or almost 8 billion euros. • Secondary markets are up. Leveraged loan markets went up 208 bps to finish the month at 99.42. High yield markets are down 31 bps to finish the month at 102.64. • The S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) finished the month up 1.18%. • Default rates fell lower during the month.
  • 3. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 Text 97 96 94 93 91 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/17 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 4. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 Text 98 94 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12 1/13 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 5. ELLI Multi-Currency Loan Return 2.5% January 2013: + 1.18% Text December 2012: + 0.72% January 2012: + 2.59% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% -0.1% 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 . Source: S&P European Leveraged Loan Index
  • 6. Volume: New-issue Loans vs. HY Bonds 15 HY bonds Text Loans 11 €7.1B €billions 8 €7.5B 4 0 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12 6/12 7/12 8/12 9/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 1/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 16% 16% 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 2/10 2/11 12/11 1/13 2/09 2/10 12/11 2/12 1/13 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. Themes to watch for Text • Strong inflows into HY funds result in strong demand for HY issuers. • Bond for loan-take-outs will continue to keep pace. The vast majority of January’s borrowers took advantage of HY market liquidity to refi existing debt, raising €5B of new bonds specifically for this purpose. Half of this paper was used to term-out loan maturities into bonds, the highest monthly tally since February 2012. • Peripheral issuers continue to access HY markets. Some have made their tax regimes far more amenable for issuers than before. • Sell-side bankers and sponsors are optimistic about M&A, provided there are no unexpected shocks to the system. There has already been a large loan and high yield offering for Liberty’s acquisition of Virgin Media.
  • 9. Text Copyright 2013 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any Text part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of pause securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.